All Activity

I may be one of the few hoping to whiten the ground from the first storm. Backside Wed evening overnight to Thanksgiving morning "may" bring a streamer burst or two if things line-up just right. NCEP says I have a chance

Caps with the sweet W tonight! After the disaster Tampa game, this was a nice bounce back.

That's a great question and there was plenty of speculation, but the fact remains that it was Smith's demands specific to Gateway getting King that led to the situation. Should some blame go to the school board? Absolutely. But that doesn't mean that Smith shouldn't be blamed as well. From my understanding (I haven't followed PSU football in awhile), there seems to be an unhappy subset of fans too that see his pins as a political play/attempt to strong-arm Penn State and.... hey... I suppose it worked for him once with Gateway, why not again with Penn State?

You mean this one?

Can you tell me how one gets such God like powers that they can have a whole school board and administration eagerly on Their knees waiting to serve them? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I obviously trust yours. You just don’t do the pretty maps, and as you know i love dirty pictures.

Yea, I was thinking that based solely on climo, the rain/snow line ends up much further north than currently forecast. Not a bad look, though, for late November. As you say, hopefully a sign of good things to come.

18z gfs has a nce snower for NNE 12/3

As a Gateway graduate during that time and as someone who was there during the "Justin King" debacle - it was just that. A debacle. King went to the school board early on and told them that they had to invest heavily in the football facilities or he was taking King elsewhere. Gateway did - gluttonously so at the direction of Smith. So much so that the academics suffered and still continue to 20 years later/never recovered. Just take a look at where they rank now amongst western PA schools - quite a far cry from just before Smith took over. There's no excuse to have Pentium 2's running Windows 95 when the new weight room has Xbox 360's on every TV. There was no money left for anything outside of football, but they had new everything all the time with everything paid for, despite other sports playing with broken down equipment and non-athletic organizations having to self-finance. Then Smith skedaddled as soon as King went to PSU and left Gateway in the lurch. No mentoring of anyone, no hope for continued success. Just trying every way he could to get King ahead. He was a diva and a selfish one at that, plain and simple. On top of that, and VERY UNFORTUNATELY, any time anyone said a word against him or his approach, it was turned into a race discussion. It had nothing to do with race imo, and everything to do with him taking the piss out of Gateway for all they were worth. I suppose he's done okay at PSU, but in Monroeville? He's still public enemy #1 for taking a Blue Ribbon school and shifting focus to football, wringing them dry, and taking the midnight train away. And that's from someone who went to Gateway AND Penn State.

Continuing the illustration showing how I'm thinking about December 1-10 and December 11-25. Here's the framework I am using. The CPC 8-14 day forecast is a good illustration of how I think things will evolve during the December 1-10 period: The risks of a faster turn to a warmer pattern in much of the eastern U.S. (not the Great Lakes, northern New England, eastern Canada) have increased with growing ensemble consensus for a predominantly AO+ pattern. Composite WPO-/EPO-/AO+/PNA- 500 mb Height Anomalies: ECMWF Weekly 500 mb Forecast for December 8-15: Composite WPO-/EPO-/AO+/PNA- Temperature Anomalies: ECMWF Weekly 500 mb 2m Temperature Anomaly Forecast for December 8-15: Right now, the guidance is still in a low-skill timeframe. What's noteworthy is the change that has taken place in the past few days. For example, this was the ECMWF weekly forecast for the December 18-15 period from three days earlier: If the guidance holds or strengthens the forecast AO+ beyond December 10, the warmer outcome could become the baseline for that period with perhaps a mid-month shift to the milder pattern. The 18z GEFS is also suggesting that the EPO could go positive. If so, that would further increase the risks for a turn toward milder conditions. In sum, December 1-10 still remains on track. One should see cold move into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes and then spread eastward. The Southeast will remain warm due to the resilient SE Ridge. Uncertainty beyond December 10 has increased and the risk of a shift toward a warmer pattern has increased. The guidance will need to be watched closely to see if its turn toward an AO+ persists.

Yeah, I saw that. It’s actually “ahead” of the euro now.

Would be rare indeed to see that kind of snowfall this early. Though I guess we all know to slash ratios at this time of year. Positive would be this type of event falls into a number of winter projections this year. So perhaps it’s a tell.

So, I have read that the recent eruption of Hayle Gubbi sent "large amounts" of SO2 into the strat. Does anyone have more details?

A generally milder than normal pattern will likely continue through next Wednesday when a system could bring a period of rain. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely. The closing days of November will likely turn colder. There is potential for New York City's Central Park to experience its first freeze of 2025. The 1991-2020 normal first data is November 21. The 1961-1990 baseline was November 11. Last winter's first freeze occurred on November 30. The opening days of December will turn milder. However, colder conditions could begin to develop during the second half of that week and continue through the second week of December. Severe cold appears unlikely through at least the first 10 days of December. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend, in part, on how the imminent stratospheric warming event propagates. Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,395th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. That breaks the record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -1.40 today. The fall of 39.57 points was the largest such fall since April 27, 2006 when the SOI fell 42.35 points. It was also the fourth largest decline on record. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.384 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.7° (1.3° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

A wide range of countries have increasing EV market share with the global share over 20% this year.. Link below has EV and plug-in EV market penetration for 61 countries. There's a wide range between countries with the US and North America a relative low penetration area. Another growing EV market is Heavy-Duty trucks, which are ramping quickly in China (2nd link), reaching a 28% market share there in Aug 25. https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/ https://apnews.com/article/china-truck-lng-ev-diesel-transport-70f3d612de4b45b6f954a7f557f7f741

If that L can eject out of the Rockies a bit quicker , it can catch up, be a bit flatter and ride that lead wave.

Yes, that's true. The biggest 2-day snowfall during the current streak was 3.2" (February 13-14, 2024). The biggest 2-day snowfall during the prior record streak was December 2, 1929 (3.9").

Get the Chips. Have used them for many years. Find them on Amazon

The SER centered over the western gulf coast and that pool of cold air in eastern Canada is the ticket. That’s how you get some mischief east of the apps. This look screams CAD opportunities. .

18z Eps AI sorely lacking warm temps over the period once past Thanksgiving Eve. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=eps_aifsens&p=sfct_anom-p105090-imp&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=

How do they smoke it? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Preliminary scoring for November 2025 FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA _ west __TOTAL hudsonvalley21 __________ 62 _ 38 _34 _ 134 _ 82 _76 _44 _202_ 336_ 44 _70 _64 _ 178 ___ 514 BKViking _________________ 64 _ 48 _40 _ 152 _100_68 _56 _224_ 376_ 42 _78 _80 _ 200 ___ 576 so_whats_happening _____68 _ 42 _22 _ 132 _ 92 _62 _62 _216 _ 348_ 48 _88 _86 _ 222 ___ 570 Tom ______________________ 68 _ 54 _46 _ 168 _ 98 _68 _54 _220_ 388_ 38 _82 _76 _ 196 ___ 584 wxallannj _________________ 70 _ 50 _40 _ 160 _ 64 _90 _78 _232_ 392_ 62 _92 _90 _ 244 ___ 636 RJay ______________________70 _ 50 _40 _ 160 _ 96 _90 _70 _256 _ 416_ 76 _90 _96 _ 262 ___ 678 Scotty Lightning __________70 _ 50 _40 _ 160 _ 90 _70 _50 _210 _ 370 _ 10 _60 _70 _ 140 ___ 510 ___ consensus ____________ 70 _ 54 _46 _ 170 _ 90 _68 _56 _214 _ 384 _ 42 _88 _86 _ 216 ___ 600 yoda ______________________70 _ 54 _48 _ 172 _ 88 _66 _58 _212 _ 384 _ 44 _88 _86 _ 218 ___ 602 DonSutherland1 __________ 74 _ 54 _46 _ 174 _ 82 _80 _64 _226 _ 400 _60 _90 _88 _ 238 ___ 638 ___ Normal ________________90 _ 70 _60 _ 220 _ 80 _60 _20 _160 _ 380 _ 00 _40 _70 _ 110 ___ 490 RodneyS __________________98 _ 68 _66 _ 232 _ 90 _30 _58 _178 _ 410 _ 66 _ 60_100_ 226 ___ 636 Roger Smith ______________ 82 _ 98 _94 _ 274 _ 34 _00 _38 _072 _ 346 _ 30 _90 _86_ 206 ___ 552 Ephesians2 _______________ 80 _ 90 _90 _ 260 _ 30 _30 _50 _ 110 _ 370 _ 40 _80 _70 _ 190 ___ 560 wxdude64 ________________ 66 _ 70 _ 86 _ 222 _ 14 _ 10 _12 _ 036 _ 258 _ 10 _56 _88 _ 154 ___ 412 -------------- Persistence (Oct 2025) ___100 _ 58 _ 28 _ 186 _ 38 _66 _96 _ 200 _ 386 _ 48 _58 _60 _ 166 ___ 552 --------------- EXTREME FORECAST REPORT NYC, BOS _ On current projections, wins for Roger Smith (second lowest forecasts) and losses for wxdude64 (lowest forecasts), would change to wins if actual values are below -2.2). ATL, IAH _ On current projections, wins for wxallannj (for ATL tied with RJay) for highest forecasts. DEN _ On current projection, win for RJay (highest forecast) PHX _ too close to call at this point, may be a win-loss situation or a straight win. DCA, ORD, and SEA currently not extreme forecasts. (forecasts) FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 ___________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+0.1 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +2.2 _+1.5 _ -0.3 BKViking __________________ +1.3 _+1.1 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+1.9 _+0.5 so_whats_happening _____ +1.1 _ +1.4 _+1.9 ___+1.4 _ +1.1 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+2.4 _+0.8 Tom _______________________ +1.1 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+1.1 _+1.4 _+1.7 ___ +1.9 _ +2.1 _+0.3 wxallannj __________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +2.8_+2.5 _+2.9 ___ +3.1 _+2.6 _+1.0 RJay ______________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.8_+2.5 _+2.5 ___ +3.8 _+3.5 _+1.7 Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ consensus ____________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.5 _+1.4 _+1.8 ___ +2.1 _+2.4 _+0.8 yoda ______________________ +1.0 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___+0.4 _+1.3 _+1.9 ___ +2.2 _+2.4 _+0.7 DonSutherland1 __________ +0.8 _+0.8 _+0.7 ___+0.1 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ +3.0 _+2.5 _+0.9 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 RodneyS __________________ -0.4 _+0.1 _+0.3 ___ +1.5 _-0.5 _+1.9 ___ +3.3 _+1.0 _+1.5 Roger Smith _______________-1.4 _ -1.4 _ -1.7 ___ -2.3 _ -2.5 _+0.9 ___ +1.5 _+3.5 _+0.8 Ephesians2 _______________ -1.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.5 ___ -2.5 _ -0.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.0 _+4.0 _+3.0 wxdude64 ________________ -2.2 _-3.0 _-2.7 ___ -3.3 _ -1.5 _ -0.4 ___ +0.5 _+0.8 _+2.1 -------------- Persistence (Oct 2025) ___ -0.5 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___+4.1 _+1.3 _+4.2 ___+2.4 _+0.9 _-0.5 ---------------

Thanks