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Drizzle, brightwaters 67

Yet ... AC only adds more to the anthropomorphic forcing integral, too. Humanity needs to accept an opposition to using fossil fuels to power the grid, being far more apropos. CC worsening will incur increased frequency of those types of predicaments, like the AC catch-22. It may seem like just a pie slice in the total anthropomorphic forcing but situations like that will get more common. Obviously ... not a novel assertion to suspect that, just sayn' Expediency to solve local/regional imminent threat to health and safety forces taking measures within those realms to stop the death, now. They may provide immediate protection, but it only augments the why-for crisis is at hand in the first place. It's just laughable to know what the solution really should be, while humanity divisively obfuscates from seeing it ... Instead, application of all these duct tape on a leaking dam strategies that evade the real problem. I keep coming across all these articles featuring these technological discoveries on how to combat x-y-z and I'm like ...Jesus. If you're nauseated by the potion, stop fucking drinking the potion.

Don't have a total but got several rounds of very hard rain in Fallston last evening into the overnight. Most welcome.

it feels like a mid october day chilly gusty ocean breeze perfect hoodie weather..

Well, luckily it was pretty bad at the forecast for this one.

Picard, My data comes mainly from: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ I periodically use teleconnections data: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/ and Climate Data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/ Most of this data can readily be downloaded or converted into .CSV and .XLSX files

In Frederick at work and we have had on and off heavy rain since around 8:30AM. At least 5 rumbles of thunder as well. Very nice over perform from the showers forecasted.

Yeah that band has been great for the Frederick region. Even we got a decent amount overnight (now that summer is almost over it can rain here)

Had lawn seats last night for a show at Jiffy Lube. Got absolutely drenched to the core

Mild Autumn doesn't particularly concern me.

Just went over an inch here. I am really surprised. With the .27 I got before the reset at midnight this is a pretty good system. Just got some thunder.

Yeah. Not sure how much time I’ll be spending up there long term, but so far it’s been a few days a month. Incredibly beautiful up there. It’s a whole different world with the small town vibe and much colder climo. I definitely don’t want snow late April though lol.

what a bust

So far we aren’t and haven’t been seeing recurving typhoons. They are moving straight west into Asia like this current one is going to do….causing the upcoming warm pattern

You have been cleaning up on me over the past several events - .27" of rain fell at home. To your point about hearing it coming down, .2" of my total fell in 11 minutes from 1:35am through 1:46am. You must have gotten in on an additional band that missed me.

WPAC inactivity is absolutely absurd

never trust a deamplifying system running into dry air

Yea, this is precisely what I thought of. I think they are in error this time, but we shall see. CFS and CANSIPS are relatively cold.

evil, evil tree

It all went to Virginia.

Yeah, still too early to know if it’s just a default or the models are onto something.

That’s one of the reasons I’m less sure of a total dreg outcome right now than I was heading into our last cold neutral/weak Nina/ horrific PDO winters, but keep in mind 2014 was the most extreme outcome of all similar analogs. Even if we got another 2014 “type” winter it would be extremely unlikely to result in that much snow. That was an anomaly. Also, we’re not arriving at the warm pool through the same larger scale mechanism this time as @Bob Chill pointed out and that matters. SSTs can be just as much an effect as a cause.

Do any of you guys have experience/tips with the wxprediction.com subseasonal forecast contest?

So essentially seasonals defaulting to the prevalent regime of the past decade.

Top 10 driest September to September period for many stations in the Northeast.