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Seeing a WWA one county to my north makes me feel some kind of way, lol.

It sucks because to get any traction at all on the platform you have to be ridiculously over the top. I'm hoping to build an audience/following there with reasonable forecasts but who knows.

penne for your thoughts on this

It’s been while since we’ve seen a legit CAD setup where we get a front end thump before flip with primary lows to the NW of us. Probably because Canada was torched the last few winters iirc. Now with Canada being cold, we may have a shot at a CAD event where it’s not just a cold rain for everyone east of the Alleghenies.

WB 18Z HRRR

ok but this model [which, to a snow lover is showing no snow, or to a rain lover is showing lots of snow] is terrible at this range

All I said is I wouldn’t want to try running too many ice storms with +10C 850s. That takes a rather extreme set of variables to pull off.

Nothing encouraging looking at the PNA and NAO today. NAO looks to be heading into positive territory while the PNA is heading negative after the 15th. Ops does still show lots of cold in Canada with occasional intrusions into the U.S. and even the SE over the next two weeks followed by warm ups. I see the mountains getting some NWSF with these. One just gets the impression that the models are still having a hard time reflecting the MJO. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see winter stay in this relatively dry rinse and repeat typical in a Nina or turn really cold in the east in January. I am rooting for the latter!

18z HRRR is a big nothingburger north of the Lehigh Valley and also less robust near I-95. C-1" north of Blue Mountain, 1-3" for everyone else.

As god intended. “God bless us, everyone. “

Nice professional presentation with this. However, with it being on Youtube, I noticed a decided lack of hype, sensationalism and errors that usually accompany weather related videos.

Glad ill be gone for this whole period. Yawn

To be fair, hasn’t snowed much in the last few years.

Reality, but still a total buzz kill.

Not me. Been there, done that

Classic CAD setup which denies the coast of the torch. So despite it being warm just about everywhere else, we’ll constantly hear about how it’s “not a torch” because the most important cities in America will be cooler.

NG bulls want the opposite of this EPS HDD trajectory (see left graph): the cold part through 12/15 was dialed in to prices many days ago:

I want a roll call of everyone that would take 40° and 1” of rain over 29° and .50” of ice on Christmas Day. A trip to the in-laws can wait a day.

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/ Then click on 2nd map on right.

My grid now has less than 1” forecast. It was 1-2” this am.

If I never saw 0.25 or more of ice again it'd be too soon cause I'm the guy who has to go clear our trail system after, 98 was pure devastation up here, you can keep that all south of the Pike as far as I'm concerned

Thanks! Where do you find that? Been interested in the PDO because of how much the negative state screwed with snow chances the last decade.

Our man! Part of the crew kicked into the back room at JJ Foleys in 2009.

Updated video on Sunday's storm and a look ahead in the extended. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lE-tz3FZDU