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3-6” in like 1991 would have half the population storming the grocery stores. I remember back then how massive a 3-6/4-8” storm sounded. Im ok with nickels and dimes over the next week as long as we keep the longer wave pattern advertised. I think we’ll score something bigger at some point. We get a huge -WPO reload too so I don’t think the general cold pattern is going anywhere regardless of whether we relax a touch mid-month or not.

I hear ya man it's been a tough stretch. I'm used to being on the wrong side of the gradient in marginal events over here so I get it.

I think Dec in the city averages 2 inches of snow in Dec and not much more out here something like 3 inches or so.

kuchie clown

FWIW, that axis looks about right w/ TRI maybe being a sloppy mess.

With the axis of this narrow strip of snow, small upstream changes create HUGE downstream changes. Think of it like this. When a hurricane is approaching the coast at an angle, any upstream change drastically changes the landfall location. This snow axis fluctuates with almost every run. The current 12z GFS is a good lollipop for TRI. The 14z HRRR is north of its past run and TRI is blank. I think time of day is going to be huge. I think likely that some in the forum area will see a stripe of frozen precip along the northwest boundary of this. Where? Your guess is as good as mine. But a line from Nashville to Abingdon, VA, seems about right. Anyone 30 miles to the south of that and 150 miles north of that is fair game.

looks nice for RIC

I suspect it's going to collapse at some point, but the RAP just gave me 4 inches. Sharp cutoff south of about 15 miles north of 40.

The frustration I felt on Tuesday was exactly how I felt in the majority of the 80’s. A kid to an adult and the feelings don’t change when you get screwed .

Don't worry it's still coming more North. We still have 18Z and 0Z to get juicy.

Thinking Decembers of old were so much colder and snowier is a classic example of rosy retrospection. Yes it used to be colder. If you're 120 years old you might just barely remember when they used to harvest thick blocks of ice on Rockland Lake near Nyack. And yes, we haven't had any huge snowstorms over the past few winters. But as of December 4, this has been a pretty typical fall and winter. We haven't had any major warmups and there are none currently on mid-range guidance. It will be cold enough to snow for much of the next week (as currently modeled) and if we get a little luck, it just might snow. NYC doesn't average a ton of snow in December. The 70s, 80s, and 90s did not feature a lot of snowy Decembers.

only got down to 14 here, but winds stayed between 6-10mph all night. yesterday's freezing rain/drizzle event left a nice coating of ice on the roads and sidewalks, and the snow now has a nice crust of ice on it as well.

yeah that wave has had the most promise of the bunch

Yeah, Chill Special on this run.

GFS is nice, lets keep the good trends going. Feeling better about seeing some snow.

Gfs is north and juicy. Pummels @Bob Chill to RIC.

Also got down to -8 here in Grinnell. Snowpack helps. Like the trends for the clipper.

I'm still rooting for Tomer Berg to be right

GFS not too bad. Gets about an inch up to DC via crappy SV maps...precip shield looks a bit norther

haha you should've been here last January, we had almost a foot in a 24hr span.

sad times .. this must be how the late 80s / early 90s felt feels like a region wide 3"-6" would be a KU storm at this point

Only your first wife.

Eyeing next tuesday-wednesday-thursday for the next possible system of note around here. GRR mentions a lot of uncertainty, but the west ridge being a little more amplified should allow for a sw or two to ride the ridge down to the GL area and maybe bring a couple inches of snow. Would be a nice send-off from Michigan EPS 24hr snowfall very cluttered in that timespan but that 2nd system, late on the 10th-11th, has been uptrending a little bit the past few runs.

GFS will be a nudge north.

That’s all I’ve got