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Deep mind with a bunch of members near ACK and then members south of BID and eastern LI. Euro retros south of the islands and then peels SW towards SE NJ. Ensembles still split. Either way a good storm seems more likely from SNE to Long Island. Don’t expect much coastal impacts towards NYC as the winds are more north. But strong winds and some rain look to happen there too.

It'll change. It'll definitely change, but wow. I've never seen something retrograde over the Long Island Expressway over 72 hours.

Recon should be nailing Polo at or near peak. Also, I concur, no real trichoidal motion yet. The tiny eye is just moving with the subtle low-level westerly flow. There appears to be enough motion that the small eyewall should avoid significant upwelling prior to any internal structural change, which most likely will begin within 24 hours due to the very intense outter concetric banding structure that is developing. I can't see Polo not undergoing an EWRC outside of 24 hours given this appearance. I'll say recon finds an intense Category 5 hurricane of around 155 kts.

it wont be as nowhere near as powerful as the perfect storm of 1991 but interesting for a early season nor'easter..

STS can and do occur w/ SSTs as low as 15 C. And you can get hurricanes below 26 C easily. That thing in Jan 2023 S of New England that NHC ignored operationally that had a persistent, defined eye and remarkably deep convection for Jan was over 21-23 C SSTs when it formed, and it actually looked best when it well SE of ACK over SSTs closer to 18 C! NHC in retrospect called it a 60 kt STS, but you look at satellite? Let me put it this way, they have called things *far* worse or lame-looking fully tropical cyclones! Dvorak T-numbers got as high as 4.5 (77 kt). Funniest things I found is that while this thing was there, we got a period of S- in SNE! @CoastalWxbe like, "no freakin' WAY!!!!"

EURO AI says "Remember the 1991 Perfect Storm?" It takes this storm and retrogrades it across long island from Friday - Sunday. Would be awesome if it actually did this.

Can't deny the ECMWF's consistency. Get ready. Perhaps the nastiest nor'easter on record for Sep for SNE. I can't recall anything like this fcst in Sep here. Seems like @CoastalWx is looking for reason for it not to happen or at very least taking the ho-hum approach. No passion or excitement. It's not like the models are all over the place (minus the GFS, but no surprise there), so a big event prob looks quite high.

You must be new here lol.

Well... that's certainly interesting.

Another item on Polo. It is rare you see a hurricane in the deep tropics in the NHEMI bodily move SE like Polo has for the past 12 hr. No evidence of a trochoidal eye wobble yet. I hope there is a recon soon. Would be a shame to miss it peak intensity!

Absolutely pouring here this morning

"All it takes is one storm" So you are stalking out Winter for 6 months for 18 hours of snowfall? No thanks, give me 20 light snow events, "snowfall days". My trees are already losing leaves - the most depressing 6 months of the year for 1 storm, no lol.

I was saying well before the season that the Ravens weakest part was WR. Having a rookie 3rd round draft pick as your number 2 is not good, and now he's on IR. It's no surprise NO won, they were actually getting hot and the end of last season, the 2nd year QB has been doing good. I picked them to win their division this year.

0.00 Was supposed to rain right ? Congratulations Winchester area !

AI euro coming in west of 18z so far

All kinds of cells firing up now. Interesting since it's in the middle of the night.

Yep getting one right now.

Congratulations, did anybody give you a medal? You definitely deserve one after all that hard work.

Strong storms forming to the south tonight.