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Yep, this winter I had go back over a year and delete tons of screenshots and pics so I could post any new ones.

well... "heat" is typical in summer - or supposed to be... heh. We've had some summers that were little torpid in that regard - certainly with respect and comparison to CC and the world. I mean it's been warmer than normal? it has.. no question. But we ware lagging ( or been so - ) over the rest of the world for bigger heat event frequency. As others et al have noted and we've discussed, we've accrued much of our CC through nocturnal/low temperatures. Otherwise, as Scott and Brian and I have explained, there's too many ways to discretely interfere with temp rising. Subtle. I mean discrete. It's not very obvious ... We can look identical in the entry to Des Moinse IA and they're 104 and we're 95...etc.. For that, which is fairly objective ... a result like what this looks like ( currently ) it's capable of achieving, would have to be considered atypically hot.

The Knicks win a championship, a top 5 blizzard and the first 100° temp since 2012 lol NYC winning

The inner harbor site is in a microscopic 2m wide triangle surrounded by cement pavers and 30 ft from the water. It is somewhat representative of street level conditions downtown but really, official measurements should be taken at riverside park if you want accuracy

+QBO Nino Decembers: 1982 (warm temps), 1987 (warm), 1994 (warm), 2006 (warm), 2015 (warm), and 2018 (normal). I count 1997’s 0.78 as neutral QBO 2004’s +2.45 and falling is pretty neutral So, I agree on 6 Nino Dec +QBOs. And all but one were warm. 2018 was NN. Favors warmth in Dec for sure! And 1997/2004 (neutral QBO) weren’t warm. Edit: Dec of 1957 also had +QBO and was warm! But Dec of 1963 was cold (moderate Nino)

So this isn't "typical" summer weather like some claim.

Thanks Brain yeah... was just analyzing the grid. If this were not the case ^ than something is seriously wrong with the technology heh

Idiosyncratic notables about this NAM output continue... 6 consecutive periods of at or > 580 dm thickness. Usually even the hottest synoptics tickle 580 around 21z each afternoon and we settle back 576... But this is hanging around at that ungodly height. Trust me...I've paid close attention to these gridded guidance numbers for long years. Tomorrow's no picnic, either. 31C max at Logan is probably a 35 C walking down Cambridge Ave or out over the parking lots of of Natick. HFD and Lowell are cooking.

Heat Dome Erica looks on track. God, this is so boring. It's hard to get into heat lol

What did the farm get for this month?

Yeah 12z MET went big

PJM is forecasting a record grid load on 7/2. Yesterday it was forecast to be 162, this morning they updated it to 166MW. The record I believe is 162 in 2006.

The 12z NAM grid's fully on board. ..whether this shows up in the machine interpolations or not, notwithstanding... but this is about as hot as I've ever seen these numbers. BOS and LGA Thursday, left to right: 5400051 31 19 -1292 11 25 11 82 34 26 19 5400048 28 12 -3294 142310 82 34 26 20 6000054 39 34 -5891 10 24 16 83 34 27 18 6000047 32 20 -0993 132513 83 35 27 20 Left to right these number illustrate a pure sear scenario. Man and I mean it! 31 and 19% is bone dry sky. Open blue, 100% undiluted solar dump in. So is 39 and 34% at 00z Friday ( bottom row). That's BOS (Logan). Likewise, LGA (Laguardia) is no different. That's the sky coverage... The next digits moving right correspond to wind direction, and speed. 24 and 25 represent 240 and 250 deg, respectively, which average WSW, at 11 to 16 kts LGA, 280 and 320 is WNW, which is idealized actually ...and given to the fact that both locations are identical synoptic constraints, these are also mutable. Call it a west wind at both for now. 0 oceanic influence. The 82 and 83 corresponds to 582 and 583 hydrostatic heights ( referred to as 'thickness'). Anything over 572 is getting into a very warm column distinction. Obviously ... rising this number means integrating more and more water into the column and in order to do that, requires heat. So, clearing 580 is both exceptional rare around our latitude, but also rare for our geological limitations. I'm starting to feel this is our best synergistic heat performance we've seen since the phenom was recently codified. The rest of the numbers, "34 26 19" (BOS, left) is 18z, are deg C. 34 C, left, is at the 980 mb level. Which is very rare, because the actual 2 meter by convention is typically a minimum of 3C above this number in a well mixed adiabatic environment. 4 or even 5 C is not out of the question given to the fact that the total combination of synoptic parametrics are really quite spectacular when taken holistically ( this is part of the synergy consideration). So... in simple terms, a 38 or even 39 C over a the urban sprawl of metro-west of Boston towns is quite doable. Now ... the NAM is the NAM is the NAM... there's that. It also can sometimes go large in heat in the 48+ hour range...then settle back on newer runs. The other 12z guidance is probably rolling out now.

89 right now matches yesterdays high

If we don't get some storms when this ridge breaks down a bit, then we're setting ourselves up for a very hot July.

Nah. Just need 4-5 hours centered around peak insolation.

Yea, historically east-based events are very unfavorable for snow.

That’s what I’m banking on. As long as the ElNino from hell manages to slay the west pacific hot blob dragon, I’ll gladly sacrifice next winter to appease the weather gods.

That thunderstorm complex in Canada looks even better than it did this morning

1997 was close to neutral 2004 was close to neutral 2018 was a modest +QBO. I'll give him that one. That was a meh December (and winter overall), not an all out blow torch, like the other 5 +QBO/el nino Decembers.

NWS has 103 on Thursday, 104 on Friday, and 101 on Saturday for PHL.

Pretty sure that's a lock with what will be juiced stj. But it won't do us any snow favors unless we get lucky. And the worst part? There seems to be agreement amongst the posters that this event is gonna spawn la nina the next year. And with how the atmosphere LOVES to double-dip, we could be right back where we were the last two years (and 5 of the last 10). Will we ever see a snowstorm of 12" or more? It seems with this event that potential has been pushed back a couple more years (because again, ninas can't do it). I hope we cam get lucky this winter and time something off with a brief cold outbreak of some sort.

The new CANSIPS

Our last backlash nina period had one great snow season (2010-11) and a 5-month torch from November-March (2011-12).