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Leaning negative but I'll give myself plenty of time to change my mind. Assuming we get a more classic N/W storm in there and sneak in a relatively minor suppression mix, but otherwise we're mostly rain for the big storms. BWI: 4.3” DCA: 1.5” IAD: 7.1” RIC: 3.2” SBY: 1.4"

BWI: 1.7" DCA: 0.8" IAD: 4.4" RIC: 0.2" SBY: T Will be happy to be wrong.. or completely adjust this in a few weeks.

November can be explosive too, but we need to get a big push of cold to produce. Expectations are in check for sure. Unlike SNE, the daily stuff seems to be the bread and butter rather than siggy events so we can't afford weeks of nothing. If our cold source is under a Chinook this winter we're cooked. Literally lol. I'm just not convinced yet that we fully blowtorch.

‘15-‘16 but without the ‘16

Highs: EWR: 85 (1950) NYC: 84 (1950) LGA: 83 (1950) JFK: 77 (1982) Lows: EWR: 31 (1954) NYC: 30 (1885) LGA: 37 (1976) JFK: 36 (1983) Historical: 1846: 87 pioneers were trapped by early snows in the Sierra Nevada that piled up to 5 feet deep with 30 to 40 foot drifts. Only 47 survivors lived to tell of the 'Donner Pass Tragedy'. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1848: When Joseph Henry came to the Smithsonian, one of his priorities was to set up a meteorological program. In 1847, while outlining his plan for the new institution, Henry called for "a system of extended meteorological observations for solving American storms." On November 1st, 1848, Joseph Henry and Navy meteorologist James Espy wrote a letter urging anyone interested in becoming a weather observer to signify their willingness to do so. By 1849, he had budgeted $1,000 for the Smithsonian meteorological project and established a network of some 150 volunteer weather observers. A decade later, the project had more than 600 volunteer observers, including people in Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean. Its cost in 1860 was $4,400, or thirty percent of the Smithsonian's research and publication budget. 1861 - A hurricane near Cape Hatteras, NC, battered a Union fleet of ships attacking Carolina ports, and produced high tides and high winds in New York State and New England. (David Ludlum) 1870: United States Army Signal Corps observers at 24 sites around the country simultaneously made weather reports and transmitted them to Washington, where a national weather map would be drawn. These simultaneous reports also started the process of sending out weather reports by telegraph to metropolitan newspapers. This would be the beginning of our present-day National Weather Service. 1950: The highest temperature ever recorded in Richmond, VA in November was 86 °F that occurred on three dates. Two of these dates on November 1st in 1950 and 1974. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records KRIC ) Strong high pressure across the southeast ridged from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes and East Coast bringing record highs. Locations reporting all-time November record highs included: Baltimore, MD: 86°, Newark, NJ 85 ; Philadelphia, PA: 84°, New York (Central Park), NY: 84°, Allentown, PA: 81°. Other daily record highs included: Richmond, VA: 86°, Charleston, SC: 85°, Norfolk, VA: 85°, Washington, DC: 85°, Wilmington, DE: 85°, Charlotte, NC: 84°, Asheville, NC: 83°, Lynchburg, VA: 83°, Roanoke, VA: 83°, Chicago, IL: 81°, Atlanta, GA: 81°, Pittsburgh, PA: 80°, Dayton, OH: 79°, Bristol, TN: 79°, -Tied, Elkins, WV: 77°-Tied, Buffalo, NY: 76°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1966 - Santa Anna winds fanned fires, and brought record November heat to parts of coastal California. November records included 86 degrees at San Francisco, 97 degrees at San Diego, and 101 degrees at the International airport in Los Angeles. Fires claimed the lives of at least sixteen firefighters. (The Weather Channel) 1968 - A tornado touched down west of Winslow, AZ, but did little damage in an uninhabited area. (The Weather Channel) 1974: The highest temperature ever recorded in Richmond, VA in November was 86 °F that occurred on three dates. Two of these dates on November 1st in 1974 and 1950. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records KRIC ) 1982: This date began a five day heat wave across much of the east as high pressure anchored off the Carolina coast bringing a south to southwesterly flow. Record highs for the date included: Corpus Christi, TX: 88°-Tied, Meridian, MS: 86°, Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: 84°, Huntsville, AL: 83°-Tied, Cincinnati, OH: 80°, Wallops Island, VA: 79°, New York (Kennedy Airport), NY: 77°, Milton, MA: 74°-Tied and Worcester, MA: 72°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Early morning thunderstorms in central Arizona produced hail an inch in diameter at Williams and Gila Bend, and drenched Payson with 1.86 inches of rain. Hannagan Meadows AZ, meanwhile, was blanketed with three inches of snow. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the Ohio Valley. Afternoon highs of 76 degrees at Beckley WV, 77 degrees at Bluefield WV, and 83 degrees at Lexington KY were records for the month of November. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Low pressure brought gales and locally heavy rain to the northeastern U.S. The rainfall total of 1.46 inches at Newark NJ was a record for the date. New York City was soaked with more than two inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A strong cold front ushered snow and arctic air into the north central U.S. Snow whitened North Dakota and the Central High Plains Region. Up to five inches of snow blanketed Denver CO. Yellowstone Park WY was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 4 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: The great ocean storm that had battered the East Coast of the U.S. for the past 2 days underwent a remarkable transformation. Convection grew and wrapped tightly around the center and on satellite imagery an eye formed. An Air Force reckon plane found a rather small but intense circulation near 39.5N/66.5W with a central pressure of 981 millibars or 28.97 inches mercury and sustained winds of 75 mph. Just a couple of days before, the large extratropical cyclone which contained former Hurricane Grace created havoc along the east coast. This type of evolution from a large extratropical low pressure to a small hurricane is rare but not unprecedented. The storm was never named, but it was the basis for the book and movie “The Perfect Storm”. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1993: A series of low pressure areas associated with the deep upper level trough which had been responsible for the record cold across the southern and central U.S. Over the past few days dumped big early season snows over the Ohio Valley and the Northeast. 3-day totals included 19.5 inches at Ellenburg Depot, NY, 19 inches at Mount Mansfield, VT and Sabinsville, PA, and 18.5 inches at Stillwater Reservoir, NY. The 10.3 inches that fell at Mansfield, OH and 9 inches at Burlington, VT were the greatest snowfalls ever for so early in the season. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2000: As road crews cleared snow from highways in western North Dakota, at least 3 tornadoes touched down 125 miles away in Bismarck, ND. The F1 twisters struck without warning in the early afternoon damaging 42 homes. Tornado watches and winter storm warnings were in effect for some locations in the Dakotas at the same time on this unusual weather day. 31.9 inches of snow fell at Lead, SD to establish a new 1-day snowfall record for November. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) heavy and persistent rains across the eastern half or the windward side of the "Big Island" of Hawaii dumped 27.24 inches of rain at the Hilo Airport in 24-hours, breaking the previous 24-hour rainfall record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2014: Interstate 40 has reopened along the Tennessee-North Carolina state line after being closed due to weather conditions earlier today. 22 inches of snow have been recorded at Mount LeConte, 15 at Newfound Gap and 12 in Hartford,TN in an early season snowstorm. A hiker has been seriously injured by a falling tree in the Greenbrier area of the Great Smoky Mountain National Park as a winter storm dumped heavy snow in the mountains. The park service said it would take some time to evacuate the "seriously injured" hiker due to weather conditions. (Ref.News Sentinel staff 7:23 AM, Nov 1, 2014) 2014: Up to 6 inches of snow fell in Gilbert, South Carolina.

are you the same guy that predicted we’d be walking around in shorts and T-shirts for Halloween? Or was that somebody else?

We figured it was the best way to go based on our limited time and budget. As long as the forecast is good I think that’s what really matters.

54 / 37 low 60s in the warmest warm / dry through Wed with low - mid 70s on Wednesday with strong southerly flow with low to our west. Next shot at rain Thu - Sat >1.00 most rain since 10/11. Overall near - above normal 11/7 and beyond and wetter.

Can sense the fear in PFs posts. He scared.

I take it that you don't see a blockbuster this season?

Probably relaxes a bit like climo usually dictates.

October finished as the 7th warmest and 11th driest in cincinnati, dating back to 1872. Only 0.59" of rain!

Coldest morning of the season thus far at 36F

somewhat rare slight risk/ 5% risk of tornadoes today and tomorrow

Certainly the first week to 10 days looks well above average. Don't need 80s to achieve this with average highs in the upper 50s now

A welcome sight. Gotta get my Christmas lights up this afternoon tho and hoping the roof isn’t wet.

Given everything else I know about you I didn’t see you as an AI graphic guy haha. Thanks for sharing your thoughts! Feel like we all know the deal this winter at this point. 60” in one storm or bust

Every even year this decade (2020, 2022, and 2024) has had historic warmth in November, especially the beginning. Let's see if the trend continues this year.

The first illustration is a table from a spreadsheet. The second is a visualization I no run through ChatGPT. I attach the earlier visualization I had created and simply ask it to update the image with the October data,which I provide it.

What if it has that same jet configuration in Jan/Feb?

November 1 2000: An F1 tornado touches down on a farm east of Prinsburg in Kandiyohi County destroying a small storage shed. It also tipped another shed on its side, and ripped off a portion of the roof of a third shed. 1999: High winds are reported in central Minnesota. The St. Cloud State University Meteorology Department in Stearns County recorded a 65 mph gust. The Morris AWOS in Stevens County posted a 62 mph gust and the Willmar AWOS in Kandiyohi county recorded a 59 mph gust. Area-wide sustained winds of 40 mph occurred, with gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range. 1991: Classes are canceled across the state due to the Halloween Blizzard. Three foot drifts are measured across I-94 from the Twin Cities to St. Cloud. MSP airport records its all-time record daily snowfall total of 18.5 inches. For Sunday, November 1, 2026 1755 - A magnitude 8.7 earthquake devastated Lisbon, Portugal, on this day, killing as many as 50,000 people. The epicenter was located 120 miles west-southwest of Cape St. Vincent. In addition, many individuals who sought safety on the Tagus River were killed by an estimated 20-foot tall tsunami that struck 40 minutes after the earthquake. 1848 - When Joseph Henry came to the Smithsonian, one of his priorities was to set up a meteorological program. In 1847, while outlining his plan for the new institution, Henry called for "a system of extended meteorological observations for solving American storms." On November 1st, 1848, Joseph Henry and Navy meteorologist James Espy wrote a letter urging anyone interested in becoming a weather observer to signify their willingness to do so. By 1849, he had budgeted $1,000 for the Smithsonian meteorological project and established a network of some 150 volunteer weather observers. A decade later, the project had more than 600 volunteer observers, including people in Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean. Its cost in 1860 was $4,400, or thirty percent of the Smithsonian's research and publication budget. 1861 - A hurricane near Cape Hatteras, NC, battered a Union fleet of ships attacking Carolina ports, and produced high tides and high winds in New York State and New England. (David Ludlum) 1870 - United States Army Signal Corps observers at 24 sites around the country simultaneously made weather reports and transmitted them to Washington, where a national weather map would be drawn. These simultaneous reports also started the process of sending out weather reports by telegraph to metropolitan newspapers. This would be the beginning of our present-day National Weather Service. 1966 - Santa Anna winds fanned fires, and brought record November heat to parts of coastal California. November records included 86 degrees at San Francisco, 97 degrees at San Diego, and 101 degrees at the International airport in Los Angeles. Fires claimed the lives of at least sixteen firefighters. (The Weather Channel) 1968 - A tornado touched down west of Winslow, AZ, but did little damage in an uninhabited area. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Early morning thunderstorms in central Arizona produced hail an inch in diameter at Williams and Gila Bend, and drenched Payson with 1.86 inches of rain. Hannagan Meadows AZ, meanwhile, was blanketed with three inches of snow. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the Ohio Valley. Afternoon highs of 76 degrees at Beckley WV, 77 degrees at Bluefield WV, and 83 degrees at Lexington KY were records for the month of November. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Low pressure brought gales and locally heavy rain to the northeastern U.S. The rainfall total of 1.46 inches at Newark NJ was a record for the date. New York City was soaked with more than two inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A strong cold front ushered snow and arctic air into the north central U.S. Snow whitened North Dakota and the Central High Plains Region. Up to five inches of snow blanketed Denver CO. Yellowstone Park WY was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 4 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2014 - Up to 6 inches of snow fell in Gilbert, South Carolina. Observances: 1 Sun National Calzone Day 1 Sun World Vegan Day 1 Sun New York City Marathon 1 Sun National Brush Day 1 Sun Native American Heritage Month 1 Sun National Adoption Month 1 Sun All Saints' Day 1 Sun No Shave November 1 Sun Movember 1 Sun National Author's Day 1 Sun National Scented Candle Day 1 Sun Daylight Saving Time Ends 1 Sun Day of the Dead 1 Sun Anniversary of the Revolution 1 Sun Coronation Day of His Majesty the King 1 Sun D. Hamilton Jackson Day 1 Sun Extra Mile Day 1 Sun International Pet Groomer Appreciation Day 1 Sun National Biologic Coordinators Day 1 Sun National Cinnamon Day 1 Sun National Cook For Your Pets Day 1 Sun National Deep Fried Clams Day 1 Sun National Family Literacy Day 1 Sun National Mia Day 1 Sun National Pâté Day 1 Sun National Vinegar Day 1 Sun Prime Meridian Day

South shore was colder last night than north shore due to very light northerly flow off the sound. Still not below freezing anywhere locally and looks to stay that way for a few weeks, so definitely a late freeze here this year

More just to show the general idea snow maps and all will have the counties and everything right.