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Story book on the Nepal floods by the Center for Land for Land Surface Hazards with detailed information from flood gauges, seismic, etc. The story book is updated as new information becomes available. A couple of quotes below. The first highlights the importance of warm temperatures/melting of ice and soil. The second how unusual this event was in valleys impacted. "However, more recent seismic analysis of the event as well as detailed reconstruction of flood downstream arrival timing (see above) suggests that damming and release of lake water did not likely contribute significantly to this event because the timing of the initial failure (i.e. the ice-rock avalanche) from seismic records is only seven minutes before the arrival of the flood waters in the nearby community of Gyirong, which is not enough time to have constructed a significant lake in the highland region. Instead, melting of ice and frozen sediment/rock in the initial debris flow and avalanche runout has been attributed to the initiation of the flood." In a 2020 study , Huber and others determined boulder-emplacement timing and estimated paleo-flood magnitudes based on boulder size. They show that most boulders in the Trishuli and Sunkoshi were last mobilized and came to rest about 5000 years ago in flood events that far exceed typical monsoon discharges by one to two orders of magnitude. Images and videos from this Trishuli flood suggest this was a larger event, moving larger boulders than the flood event that impacted the valley ~5000 years ago https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/f2b2425eac544929a7d18f4c90b41d66

guidance hinting at a wet pattern returning to the northwoods

So much what was said in that post could have easily been condensed down to !~25% of its original and still said the same thing!

NHC follows the 00z HAFS-B, but here is the current 09z EIR, and the fcst EIR valid 09z from the HAFS-B. This I find a problem often the days, some stick to the model fcst and persist in not altering at all a fcst when the model is already wrong in its short-term verification. That's not good. Objectivity, the HAFS-B is quite wrong here for satellite presentation. Now I know that does not mean RI is off the table, but one just can't ignore the model shortcomings here and still stay the course on an earlier fcst. And NHC mentioned nothing about the ESE shear I pointed out earlier that was apparent on satellite, or the low environmental RH that persists, or how earlier more banded convection is now becoming more irregular (blobs). These are non-trivial observations as to what is going on real-time. Actual empirical observations override any model fcst every time.

Because of this, the offical NOAA monthly data will likely be in the neighborhood of maybe like 2.2C for non-relative nino 3.4 and 1.8C for relative for August. BOM, UKMET, and ECMWF data may run warmer because of the difference in sst analysis and the integration of high resolution sst data that noaa is not doing.

socal ready 2 mudslide?

https://x.com/MLB/status/2094650895120191545

Ahh..okay. So the main disconnect im seeing with the cooler relative noaa data is the actually the difference in sst analysis. The non-relative oisstv2.1 is running considerably warmer than the non-relative ersstv6. This is because of the courser nature of ersstv6 and the lack of satellite data integration. The ersstv6 is best for historical comparisons but it will tend to not see the real warmest anomalies because of its nature.

How does using Jan-Mar look? My guess is that Nov & Dec have the greatest +anomalies, but I could be wrong of course.

News flash: The vegetation around that site has been extensively cleared in order to remove a large tree next to the enclosure. This may reduce the apparent discrepancy in temperature trends relative to other NY area sites.

Deeper cells appear to be trying to build around the small central vortex. Also, it does appear that the southern side of the circulation is beginning to fill in with precipitation somewhat and perhaps is feeling the lower central pressure with increasing low-level westerly flow. Now, to see if ongoing deeper convection does take off before the window closes this morning.

70F/DP 69F at 5am Perhaps some more downpours today...

^ I concur. There were some fallacies pertaining to the current particular situation with Edouard versus just some rather highly detailed overexplaining of the prototypical pre-intensification process we see in early onset TCs with respect to shallow convection. At any rate, I wouldn't go so far as to say it was AI regurgitation. But I did scratch my head as I don't see how some of that applies here. We may very well see deep convection take off due to internal dynamics nearto Eduardo's small vortex this morning (and there are hints that may be starting to occur on radar and satellite), but I digress.

Looks like heat dome stays SW of here hence the over the top storms expected. Thank God because upper 90s would've been brutal to start September

Lol yeah no.

I'm sorry, but IMHO the quoted post from another site @GaWx posted says a lot w/o saying much. To me, it seems like ChatGPT output that is tweaked and adjusted manually here and there to make it look like less AI or just explains the idealized TC intensification process. This statement is a red flag as to Edouard's state now: "Edouard is simply spending its energy aligning its low-level and mid-level circulation centers rather than fueling vertical updrafts" The environmental shear is low, so the low and mid-level vortex, how can they align in the first place? Yes there is some light shear, but not enough to make the vortex tilted in any meaningful way. Yes, the convection on the N side, but it is not sheared convection, it is more circular banding, and convection lacking in the S quad is due to dry air entrainment primarily. And a TC does not "spend energy" aligning a low and mid-level vortex. Oh it can fight off shear w/ repeated convective pulsing, but the shear needs to relax for real solid organization to take place most of the time. The environmental shear dominates, not the TC, esp. in nascent stages. "This is not land proximity or dry air entrainment (WV would show this)." Um, yes it is, at least for dry air entraiment. WV *does* show this, and so does the SHIPS output for 700-500 environmental RH (it is 42% at 06z (that's down from 48% at 00z). https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2026/al052026/stext/26090106AL0526_ships.txt Also, look at the convection on the N and E side now, it pulsing up quickly in irregular blobs. I think that is due to some ESE shear impacting the system, as I noted in a previous post, and shear will make dry air entrainment easier. Land proximity is not too much of a big deal, not when that land is flat. If the environmental conditions are ideal, then it does not matter, Look what Michael did in Oct 2018 right up to the last minute and Charley in Aug 2004. Prolixity to land matters most when high mountains are present, like Hispaniola or Taiwan. You can get dry air downsoping that messes w/ the TC and its outer circulation disrupted, leading to some odd eye tracks/wobbles (Taiwan is famous for this). I think Edouard is slowly improving in organization overall. Environmental conditions are not overly hostile, but not that good either, so what we are seeing is to be about expected. And going back to the other site's post, I find it unnecessarily complex/technical, and as @GaWx said "I won't pretend to understand fully." What does that tell you? IMHO, mets that post practical and straightforward info, infused some more advanced stuff, but able to connect it to operational meteorology w/o making the avg met or wx enthusiast confused, is what to look for. Some ppl try to impress w/ a lot of tech talk and that convince others that "they must know what they are talking about!" So beware! It's good that the other site post was posted here for cross-examination. There are a lot of wx hustlers, armchairs mets, or ppl that just have more to learn. I have seen plenty and can spot them a mile away.

Happy Meteorological Autumn. The start of the great Ber months .

Happy Meteorological Autumn. The start of the great Ber months .