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100mi fail within 72hrs

Neither robot interested, troubling indeed

Thanks for the advice to look up a bit higher for the jet streaks. I used to do that but I forgot and assumed H5 lmao. Anyways, the real thing that my analysis made me realize is that if the GFS/CMC were to shift 50-100 miles west we actually have some real potential here. I mean right now we can see how the jet streaks are too far displaced east and subsequently so is the low pressure. An adjustment west wouldn't be crazy and we'd suddenly be looking at a dangerous setup! Of course, that would require something going right for us which seems... hard to come by recently.

Even yesterday, EURO AI had no one getting more than an inch or two...even in the Berkshires.

Yes, EURO AI nailed this non-event...and it still sucks for the weekend.

Some drizzle and rain showers are likely into early Thursday as a system streaks rapidly from Minnesota across central New York State and into New England. Parts of central New York State and southern/central New England, including Boston, could see some accumulating snow. Additional precipitation could arrive Friday or Saturday. Highs will likely reach the 40s through Saturday. The guidance has backed off on the potential for a significant or major snowstorm in the February 22-24 timeframe. More evidence in the form of model consensus and support from a large number of individual ensemble members would be needed before there can be reasonable confidence in a significant or major snowstorm. For now, a significant or major snowstorm remains a low probability but high-impact scenario. An AO-/PNA- pattern, which is forecast for the timeframe involved, has seen a number of significant or major snowstorms during the second half of February. Since 1950, New York City has seen four 6" or above snowstorms during such patterns, including the 1979 President's Day blizzard (12.7") and the February 25-26, 2010 snowstorm (20.9"). In contrast, during AO+/PNA- patterns, New York City has seen just one 6" or above snowstorm. Details should start to become clearer tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter. The SOI was +9.56 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.264 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.8° (4.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.5 below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0°, but the forecast development of an AO+ regime could lead to a sufficiently mild outcome to result in a winter mean temperature that exceeds freezing. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

Yes, true. Hopefully that has an impact. I think if it does we see a favorable move at 00z.

Great analysis! For jet streak placements, I look at 200-300 mb for that. it’s close to a classic double jet streak system where the SLP deepens under the left exit region of the jet streak off the carolinas overlapped with the right rear entrance region of the other jet streak off new england. same with cmc euro, though, isn’t quite a double jet streak - more like one long jet stream rounding the lw trough

GFS probably did the best, RGEM at least picked up on the fail yesterday 12z. euro was bad the whole way

The problem with this is that there is limited cold air and the sun angle. It will likely be all rain, that is if we even have precipitation.

Even short term models failed.

If this thing stays here or moves west at 0z I’ll be very happy but I just don’t think that will happen

This was just an odd evolution for this, It was dying on arrival and just a thin ribbon too.

Euro ai

GFS was better, CMC and Euro were very bad.

lol

i think they all did from what ive seen. was just looking at the GFS/GEM/NAM they were all pretty bad

Looks like it was a colossal fail on all guidance though, I mean, What model had it close to right?

Why I like the GFS and CMC Part 1: 500mb wind analysis Both the GFS and CMC have a potent ULL at the H5 layer dive southward and close off from the prevailing flow. This directs a 500mb jet streak to develop directly to the south of this closed off low and if the strength/placement of the the ULL is correct it puts us directly in the LER (left exit region) of a rather intense jet streak which promotes upper level diffluence I mean look at that! It's nearly perfectly placed to help us squeeze out whatever moisture we have in the column by lifting it upwards. The impact of our jet streak induced diffluence is easily seen in our vorticity map. Notice how the vorticity nearly perfectly follows where that jet streak is located. This is a great sign that we could get some good lift throughout the atmosphere! If we are nitpicking then I would generally want to see a ULL that is both further south, a bit west (though too far starts to risk thermal issues), but most importantly is more neg tilt and stronger! Part 2: Moisture Transport and Low Level Winds Since the DGZ seems to be located around 700mb on the soundings and we have lift from the 900mb layer up into the DGZ we are looking to see moisture transport anywhere between 900-700mb. Luckily that is exactly what the GFS offers! We can see on the 850mb wind maps we have a closed low off the NC coast which promotes easterly winds off the Atlantic which helps provide us a decent moisture fetch. This same principal applies for the layers of 925-700ish mb but the wind becomes more out of the south; which though is worse than directly from the Atlantic it's still not terrible. Part 3: Baroclinicity There is a rather pronounced baroclinic boundary for this low to feed off of and intensify in accordance with it and the favorable H5 dynamics. As we can see we have a rather strong thermal gradient right off NC with temperatures reaching near 70 next to a 20+ degree temp drop to the NW. My only concern is that this gradient is more W-E focused where we would rather have a N/S gradient to help the H5 pull the storm up the coast. In conclusion There is a lot to like about this setup IF the GFS/CMC is right! While placement of where the coastal low is captured and various details which are very impactful are yet to be worked out as long as we have these players on the field we got a chance! However, this is not a post necessarily stating I think this is likely or the most plausible outcome (we really need the Euro to come aboard) but simply analyzing what this storm has the potential to be.

DCA-BWI-PHI may jackpot in this nor’easter. GFS has silly totals for the DelMarVa.

I think i've seen better streamers off the lakes this winter that produced, That radar looks like shit.

also, just saying, the euro did an absolutely awful job with tonight’s nonevent this was within 90 hours and was a simpler setup, it was too amped with the wave

I thought it was supposed to get warm.

Ok. So?

0.0 and holding steady!