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At least we got a deep summer stretch right on into about Monday or so.

Yeah next week is a little cooler here for sure. It looked like the trough axis would set up over the Great Lakes but it’s sort of setting up in southeast Canada so we’ll have more of a infiltration of cooler and drier air, although I don’t think it’s gonna be really below normal unless that low on the euro is correct.

promising look, nice the we should see multiple rounds impact klot

KFOK 45 so your number is impressive. .

Let's start a GoFundMe to tear down the Appalachians

Min 48.8°…sucks but it’s still early June. Still looks cooler next week…maybe more like mild downs in SNE. EC tries to sneak a low under NNE which would make for a mank day. Keep the mean trough in the midwest and we’ll be okay most days.

Hopefully, the clouds and convection can prevent another run on 100° so soon after the one in May. The only model with upper 90s in our area is the Euro. But it has less clouds and convection than the other models. It could be correct if the convection underperforms with the ongoing drought. The model forecasts highlight the big temperature divide as early as Thursday.

Ultimately El Niños are ranked by their jump in global temperatures. 2023-2024 had a larger rise in global temperatures than previous super El Niño events. So relying on the RONI metric is inadequate to describe these much stronger events. Even the authors of the paper which RONI is based on said the scale may need to be reevaluated in the future. So I view it as an experimental index which should be used alongside the traditional ONI scale. It can be used for assessing features like El Niño rainfall and the strength of the Aleutian Low. But ONI was closer to reality on temperatures during 2023-2024 than RONI. Plus the 500 mb ridge over North America was more in line with ONI. 2023-2024 was the warmest winter on record for the CONUS which none of the models beyond 15 days forecast. The warmth across the Northern Tier even exceed some of the previous super El Niño events. Seasonal models don’t have the ability to see extremes. Extreme warmth has been greatly exceeding extreme cold. So the long range models miss extreme warmth much more often since extreme cold has become so rare. About the only thing I use the seasonal models for are the Nino plumes once we get past the spring predictability barrier in early June. But we knew something really big was coming months ago with the record WWBs and kelvin waves. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/4/JCLI-D-23-0406.1.xml As they previously cautioned, in the future, if there are significant divergences between the tropical mean state and trends in the Niño indices, then this index will need to be re-evaluated. We hope this work motivates additional studies and simulations of these indices in a changing climate.

Day 2 marginal, Day 3 marginal and day 4 15%

53 degrees this morning. Certainly a nice cloudy day yesterday.I wasn’t expecting that. High of 75 degrees.

US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites · · HOT, HUMID, AND STORMY Increasing heat and humidity will be accompanied by daily chances for afternoon showers/thunderstorms through Friday. A classic summer-like pattern..

50.5F for my low lets see what happens in a week.

The new DWKW has already started: And wow! 3 TC’s have formed in less than a week in the EPAC. Historic TC season coming up there

49 this morning

41 this morning so far. Might crack below 40.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090838 SPC AC 090838 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Friday... The last several deterministic model runs have consistently shown the progression of a short-wave trough and associated 50 kt jet streak from the OH Valley into the St. Lawrence Valley, with meaningful height falls as far south as the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the northern portion of a cold front initially from southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the MS and OH Rivers and into the southern Plains will progress southeast and eventually merge with a trough stretching from southern New England to the Carolina Piedmont. Ahead of the front, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will combine with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, especially across the lower Great lakes, to yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon. Initial storms are anticipated across the lower Great Lakes into upper OH Valley by early afternoon, with activity advancing east toward the Hudson Valley, and southeast into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon into evening. The strongest vertical shear is forecast from the lower OH Valley to the lee of the lower Great Lakes, where organized storm modes capable of damaging winds and large hail appear most probable. Elsewhere, a more isolated severe-weather threat may materialize within a low-level upslope regime in eastern NM

Nice natural AC, down to 49F

Looks like it's real. Another report out of the same area at 111 MPH with debarked trees.

See attachment for PDS bliz and ice storms. Goes into effect 10/1/26. I thought the NWS was trying to *reduce* the number of types of watch/warning products b/c there were too many. For instance, Blizzard Watch was removed several years ago. I am not a fan of PDS b/c it diminishes those events not labeled such that can be just as impactful. It's like Tornado Emergency. First, all tornadoes are emergency situations that require immediate action. Second, hearing "only" a tornado warning can be perceived as not as urgent to many. So a PDS blizzard or ice storm, same thing. And what exactly constitutes a PDS really? It is not always due to the meteorological severity or hard numbers. If a large population is impacted, does that mean a PDS is warranted. It's like saying a smaller population is less important than a larger one. Meteorological intensity and impact are two different things and not necessary correlated. I can just see PDS being overused from factors that have nothing to w/ the wx event itself. And it gives an excuse for the media and all the hype masters out there to ratchet things up even more, which promotes warning apathy further. The idea of PDS may look good on paper and in theory, but how it is handled in a practical sense in reality is an entirely different ballgame, and the way wx is handled these days in itself as if all inclement wx is "extreme," "unusual," and "not supposed to happen?" The ordinary is turned into the extraordinary far too often. What's next, a PDS for a hurricane landfall? Dense fog? Dust storm? More warning is not necessary better. There comes a point of diminishing returns. pds.pdf

Highs: PHL: 81 TEB: 81 New Nrnsck: 77 TTN: 76 NYC: 75 ACY: 75 EWR: 74 LGA: 74 JFK:73 ISP: 73 BLM: 72

Thornton NH 852 pm 6/6. Probable Scott spinner. Video link and video stills attached. I think there are two funnels! One in the center of the video at the start, and then one off to the left at the end! https://www.facebook.com/TheWizardline/videos/1009799924785673/ This looks like a classic brief spin-up tor on the S side of a comma head associated w/ a bow echo. These are more common than once thought, and sometimes you can get a bunch clustered from the comma head. The cloud structure is not classic back edge of the storm w/ a clear wall cloud. This is b/c the comma head makes it more chaotic/messy from a visual standpoint. It is not raining that hard near the funnel as the visibility is good, and that would make sense given the lower echoes in the rear of the comma head. The drone pix shows very localized tree damage. Too small and sharp for a microburst. Yes, the trees are all laying in one direction but that can be misleading. The bow echo was moving E 40-50 mph, so a weak tor moving that fast can easily have it winds on one side of the circulation negated to a point no tree damage occurs, and the other side enhanced, so trees would all fall in the same direction. And we know from observations in the field now, brief tornadoes like this are much more common than we once thought. So many spotters, chasers, cameras, and now drones make detection much more likely. This is about 65 mi from GYX WSR-88D and that would make it about 5000 ft at VEL1. A little high to catch the best low-level rotation, so I bet there was better below 5000 ft. I sent all this to WFO GYX.

A few notes on the edits: Using Martz's own data, I changed the format to recognize the most recent date on which a given high was set. Showing only the earliest occurrence, of course, is going to favor earlier years. For Maryland, I recognized the higher 106°F reading from Baltimore Science Center in 2012, which was omitted by Martz. For North Carolina, I added the 107°F tie from 2012 at a cooperative station that was missing from Martz's data. Note that several RAWS stations were even hotter, in the 107–109°F range, but I did not recognize those here. For Maine, Fryeburg and other coop stations reached 101°F in 2025, matching the value Martz had listed. Rachel Carson RAWS reportedly reached 103°F, but again, I went with the lower conventional station mark. For New York, I removed the absurd 105°F reading from 1919. No other station in New York was above 98°F that month. The site that supposedly reached 105°F is in the elevated northern interior, and on the same day several nearby stations reported highs only in the 88–92°F range. The same station also supposedly had a low of 50°F, implying a 55°F diurnal range. That reading is not credible. I used 104°F from 2012 instead, though even that may be too high. The next value would be 103°F, which was most recently reached in 2025. There are also a few older records that are probably questionable, but I left them in place because the goal here was mainly to update Martz’s map rather than fully reconstruct every state record from scratch. Pennsylvania’s 107°F from 1933 is almost certainly erroneous as it is far above surrounding observations. But I left it because the next-highest readings were either from that same year at other stations, including on the opposite side of the state, or from the same general era. In other words, changing it would require a deeper reconstruction rather than a simple update. Wyoming is another interesting case. There is a reported 114°F reading from 1988 that Martz rejects apparently because it was several degrees higher than other Wyoming observations. But that one does not strike me as obviously impossible. Montana set its state record in 1988, Minnesota tied its June record in 1988, and the Wyoming site was near western Nebraska, where there were observations in the 110–112°F range. Even if the 114°F were 3°F too high, it would still match the 111°F record from 1919 shown here. Note that the 111°F record recognized by Martz was also the highest by several degrees that month. So yes, there are likely other discrepancies and judgment calls buried in the record book. But the big picture does not depend on any one marginal station. Once you present the most recent tied occurrence, correct the obvious omissions/data issues, and add the 2025 New England records, the map changes dramatically.

1.87" total here between yesterday and today.

This is what Martz’s June statewide high-temperature record map looks like if you present the most recent occurrence of each record, correct a few omissions/data errors, and add in the 2025 records that were set or tied across New England. With the updated/tied values included, 23 of 51 U.S. jurisdictions (50 states plus DC) have set or tied their statewide June high-temperature record in just the past 14 years, from 2012 through 2025. That is a huge chunk of the record book, especially considering that many of these records extend back into the 19th century. A lot of the changes come from the brutal 2012 heat wave, when numerous states tied or set June records. Then 2025 added another cluster in New England. The result is a map that looks a lot less like “the old records still dominate” and a lot more like what you would expect in a warming world: the upper tail keeps getting pushed higher, and old records keep getting matched or exceeded. Here is a table showing all June statewide record high temperatures set or tied from 2012-2025: State / Jurisdiction June Record Year Colorado 114°F 2012 Georgia 110°F 2012 Illinois 109°F 2012 Kansas 118°F 2012 Kentucky 111°F 2012 Maryland 106°F 2012 Missouri 112°F 2012 Nebraska 116°F 2012 New York 104°F 2012 North Carolina 107°F* 2012 South Carolina 113°F 2012 Tennessee 110°F 2012 Virginia 106°F 2012 District of Columbia 104°F 2012 Idaho 116°F 2015 Hawaii 96°F 2019 Oregon 119°F 2021 Washington 120°F 2021 Massachusetts 105°F 2025 Maine 101°F* 2025 New Hampshire 102°F 2025 Rhode Island 100°F 2025 Vermont 103°F 2025