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December 1-10 should start warm but then get cold. The question is whether it remains generally cold into late December or turns milder near mid-month. That’s the part that is increasingly uncertain.

Jk....Ellinwood is amazing!

It feels good to be back I'm ready to be hurt again!!

IMHO, there is a decent storm signal showing up IF the cold settles into the Ohio River Valley. There are multiple CAD signatures for W NC. I would also think there is potential for winter storm across the upper tier of the Upper South with the way that storm track sits. We will see if this trend continues going forward. This started late yesterday with both the AIFS and GFS trending colder. The 12z suite is cold across the board. It could just be a batch of data or it could be a continuing trend.

Huh ? There's pages in here on how December 1- 7 was supppsed to way above normal with southeast ridge. We are seeing the models take a step back with the warmth. There is no need to worry about 2 weeks from now when the models cant even get next week right .

Today's low 40s will degrade the 1" cover to "T", with nothing to see for the rest of the week.

The 12z Euro bring subzero temps into the Ohio River Valley(western sections) 2x. Once is around Dec 2nd and the other is Dec 6h. There is probably some snow field enhancement there, but still...it is very cold here. Single digit real feels by Dec 6th. Maybe a couple of days w/ sub freezing highs for areas north of I40 on two separate occasions.

I'm sorry, but those numbers don't even come close to passing the sniff test. E.g.: ---------------------------- Alternatively, energy payback may be measured by ‘number of times payback’ – meaning, the amount of energy paid back to society versus the energy needed in the lifetime of that turbine. Over the life cycle of a V117-4.2 MW wind power plant, it will return 50 times more energy back to society than it consumed. That means that when 1 kWh is invested in a wind energy solution, you get 50 kWh in return. For coal, however, if you invest 1kWh you typically get below 0.4 kWh in return. ------------------------ They're honestly asserting that the trillions of $ invested in the coal and oil industries have provided *negative* energy returns? That makes no sense. Given the source though - a windmill manufacturer - it doesn't surprise me. Much like they oil industry shills - they have a vested interest (no pun intended) in making competing technologies look bad.

The 12z Euro looks remarkably similar to the 12z CMC. I am kind of surprised by that. Winter storm potential exists on it as well.

We overperformed. The overnight periods have been absolute money.

Latest Euro gives us a couple shots of snow. And yeah, pretty chilly.

Haha, yeah I gotta bring up the ol NGM at least once per winter season. Yeah it was a crappy US model from the 90s/early 2000s.

This is the 5-day map from WxBell of the above pattern depicted by the 12z CMC....that is a BIG change. What we are seeing at 12z might explain the model mayhem. Is it the MJO finally exerting influence on modeling? I have sometimes noticed that the MJO doesn't really exert influence on modeling until about d10-12. I have noticed this in reverse when the pattern looked cold d10-15, but the MJO looked like it might stay cold while in the warm phases - nope, almost always flips as reality approaches. Is the SSW starting to have an early impact on the troposphere? Maybe, but it is a bit early for that influence. Either way, the EPO is showing up on modeling big time at 12z. Let's see if the Euro gets on board. I kind of doubt that it does as it IMHO is dealing with feedback issues in the SW. But let's see if it gets moved off of its spot just a little.

The growing concern isn't December 1-10. That still seems on track. The issue concerns what happens afterward e.g., should the GEFS's AO+ scenario develop. The GEFS compounds the issue with the development of an EPO+. The persistent PNA- remains in place.

if I could react to my own posts, I would react with a weenie as well

12z Euro has a Dec 5-6 coating

Euro

Euro has also trended colder in the mid range

That's why CPC using averages for the last 16 cycles on the CFS's maps. It's bad practice to treat the CFS as a deterministic operational model. That doesn't stop the vendors from providing such information to an often unaware audience (unaware of the tool's limitations).

Euro has also trended colder

i fear i'm too young to get this reference... is that like today's weenies running custom wrf models off of the 300hour GFS initial conditions?

Euro pretty much the same as last night on snowfall. Maybe spreads the wealth a little more north.

12Z Euro says hold on.

I still have a windows 95 machine cranking out NGM runs.

i hear the korean is the one to ride this winter....