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smoke already being reported in NYC and BOS

it's a replay of the Falklands War lol - advantage England there!

EWR to 97 at 1PM with some clouds now into the northen half section of NJ 95 here

Bronx:

I was promised lower dew points lol, 91/76

Models are insistent that rains return next week with a surge of monsoonal moisture. Really hope so...camping with fire bans sucks.

Thankfully, it appears some relief is imminent.

Yep, it will have implications broadly, including the feasibility of a lot of social safety net programs. anyway, damn smoky down here. Definitely feel it in my throat.

shouldn't be totally relying on a Mesoscale model 72 hours out the 12Z GFS is further north with the precip

The HRRR *has* backed off on the visibility restrictions for the southern half of MI, so there's that...

How does that compare to normal.

Unfortunately, the Lehigh Valley will likely be even hotter today. The stiff, breezy westerly winds bringing wildfire smoke into the region are also acting much like a Santa Ana wind as they descend the Blue Mountains, warming and drying the air. Humidity is very low, and it's already 95°F at noon. I wouldn't be surprised if Allentown and Reading reach 100°F or higher this afternoon, while the Philadelphia area may stay a few degrees cooler because it won't benefit from the same downslope warming effect.

90F dewpoint of 75 and smoke everywhere. Can’t believe some of you psychos actually like this lol

12z NAM brings basically zero rain north of central NJ on Saturday. GFS still has some rain but doesn't seem as wet or North as previous runs. Hoping it at least holds out til night.

Yep. 1900 level would be nice.

Smoke filled sky.. sun not even able to peak through.. Definitely a burning smell to the air.. summer sucks

12Z UKMET similar to 0Z run: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 27.0N 83.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.07.2026 96 27.0N 83.0W 1012 27 0000UTC 20.07.2026 108 27.2N 82.5W 1010 23 1200UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.3N 81.3W 1012 29 0000UTC 21.07.2026 132 30.0N 79.1W 1008 31 1200UTC 21.07.2026 144 31.8N 77.6W 1004 39 0000UTC 22.07.2026 156 33.8N 75.5W 1001 41 1200UTC 22.07.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

My wife and I at last night's MLB all star game:

95/71 currently.

Curious--is it on par with a normal cloudy day?

93 imby. I think the smoke/haze is limiting heating at the surface despite high 850mb temps

What a difference from even a few hours ago. Zero smoke, zero smell when I pulled into the office at 8.

Further to my CFSv2 post above, here’s how the CFSv2 did in the E US with their mid-July forecasts for the subsequent JFM: For ‘26 (Nina) too warm For ‘25 (Nina): close NE; too warm SE For ‘24 (Nino): too cold, especially NE For ‘23 (Nina): much too cold, esp. NE For ‘22 (Nina): overall a bit too warm For ‘21 (Nina): a bit too cold For ‘20 (warm neutral): much too cold (similar miss to ‘23) For ‘19 (Nino): close NE but too cold SE For ‘18 (Niña): close For ‘17 (Niña): much too cold (similar miss to ‘20 and ‘23) For ‘16 (Nino): close NE but too cold SE For ‘15 (Nino): much too warm NE, too warm SE For ‘14 (cold neutral): a bit too warm (good forecast but not cold enough) For ‘13 (cold neutral): close For ‘12 (Niña): much too cold (similar to ‘17, ‘20, ‘23) The all important tally for the 15 JFMs of ‘12-‘26 to give us idea of summer CFS bias: 1) NE -Too cold 6 yrs/40% (including 4 much too cold): 24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘17, ‘12 -Too warm 4 yrs/27% (including one much too warm): ‘26, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14 -Close 5 yrs/33%: 25, ‘19, ‘18, ‘16, ‘13 Overall averages a cold bias in the NE, especially since 4 much too cold and only one much too warm. OTOH, only 6 of 15 (40%) too cold…so not a strong cold bias averaged out where one can take a CFS fcast and assume it will be too cold since only 40% too cold…thus, that wouldn’t be wise 2) SE -Too cold 8 years/53% (including 4 much too cold): ‘24, ‘23, ‘21, ‘20, ‘19, ‘17, ‘16, ‘12 -Too warm 5 years/33% (but none much too warm): ‘26, ‘25, ‘22, ‘15, ‘14 -Close 2 years/13%: ‘18 and ‘13 Overall, averages a cold bias in the SE, especially since 4 much too cold and none much too warm. OTOH, not a strong cold bias averaged out since only slightly more than 50% too cold; so wouldn’t be wise at all to assume CFS will verify as too cold @mitchnick