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My guess is by the end of winter we will be tired of rain.

Ike is the only on the list not a MH at landfall. However, that’s a technicality because it was at the high end of cat 2 and it was also gigantic in size!

Good data. Honestly I don’t think anyone can make a forecast for next season due to the historical unprecedented magnitude of this Nino. It’s impossible know what the response will be next year. So I should probably back down and say something like 50-200 Ace. Really anything is possible. Since you have some great data access do you have any info on a possible tsunami on the east coast created by the great Lisbon earthquake of 1755? I can’t really find anything concrete. .

That slight risk certainly expanded a tad.

@SnowenOutThere I think your instinct is right. That’s a very marginal sounding between drizzle and a little snizzle.

18z Euro much closer to the coast.. haven't checked the AI yet

Yes, and it makes the top 5! Highest U.S. TC Storm Surges 1) Katrina Aug 2005 27.80 ft Pass Christian MS 2) Camille Aug 1969 24.60 ft Pass Christian MS 3) Carla Sep 1961 22.07 ft Port Lavaca TX 4) Laura Sep 2020 19.86 ft Creole LA 5) Unnamed Sep 1938 19.17 ft Point Judith RI 6) Unnamed Sep 1935 18.23 ft Lower Matecumbe Key FL 7) Beulah Sep 1967 18.00 ft South Padre Island TX 8) Ike Sep 2008 17.79 ft Chambers County TX 9) Hugo Sep 1989 17.55 ft Awendaw SC 10) Rita Sep 2005 17.25 ft Cameron Parish LA

Yes, and good point, but the non-linear nature of atmosphere and the strength of this El Nino? I have learned that what we thought should happen and worked as a good analog prior, well, just when you think you have seen it all, something happens that has one going ???? I do not think there is any clear evidence that an favorable phase of the AMO precludes two suppressed Atlantic seasons in a row. For the sake of argument, lets say "suppressed" is less than 70% of avg ACE. You have 1945-46, 1956-57, 1959-60, and 2013-14, all in the favorable phase of the AMO, but less than 70% ACE each season.

That anxiety is soon coming lol

Isn’t 1938 also about a very high storm surge?

The Oct 1846 hurricane was exceptional as well. A 2021 study showed that if such a HU occurred today, costs would be over $100B for the E Coast. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/24694452.2020.1838257 Unfortunately. the paper is behind a paywall.

The level of anxiety this forum would have if this system was in January would be through the roof

Yes, and POR (period of record) considered is paramount, so mentioning the paleoclimo record of 1000 years is key to historical discussion. I get the distinct impression from the mainstream, it like everything prior to 2000 didn't happen! It's all about here and now, and the past/history be damned! Oh, I know why that is and the media business model, but it misleading so many as to wx events these days. Facts are meaningless w/o context, so you can't treat wx events currently or recently in a vacuum! That's why studying history is so important. Why I said 2000 above as "that's when wx history 'started'?" I've see those little daily wx calendars where you rip off a page each day, and it became quickly obvious to me that most wx events were post-2000! Not that there were not sig wx events on the days post-2000, but why would they *not* list the Tri-State Tor on 3/18/1925 or the GLS HU on 9/8/1900?

Hit 93 for a high here. Unbelievable for mid October.

Have ya heard? Super El Nino cometh.

Rain

Dad and beer for starters

Let’s see what 18z euro ai does

Tomorrow will then turn briefly milder with temperatures topping out in the lower to perhaps middle 70s ahead of another cold front. The cold front could bring showers and thundershowers. A few thundershowers could be strong to severe. Afterward, a piece of the air mass that set a record low temperatures in parts of Canada last weekend will move into the region for the weekend. The arrival of this air mass could trigger a few showers on Friday or Friday night. As a result, the weekend could see the coldest temperatures so far this season. Highs in New York City will struggle to reach 50° on Saturday and rise only to the lower and middle 50s on Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -17.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.229 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

My daughter is 0 for 3 finishing tournaments this fall. 3 bracket days all cancelled. I'm about to finish my season in the night mist which keeps back building over howard county. Baltimore Marathon is Saturday as well. Sounds like it might be a bit wet to start.

Hazel in Oct 1954 was a rare beast. First, it is strongest, farthest N HU landfall for so late in the season the CONUS on record (115 kt). Second, it likely the quickest ET transition for an intense landfall CONUS HU. HURDAT2 shows it ET only 2.5 hr after landfall! Third, its phase w/ a strong baroclinic trough was about as ideal as you could get, similar to Fiona in Sep 2022 I bet. It still had sustained winds of 70 kt when it was at 40N/77W, which is extraordinary. It was racing N at 42 kt once inland as well. A truly exceptional event, similar to Sandy, but for wind more potent. So is it any surprise such crazy winds occurred so far N? Not only NYC recorded its record gust of 98 kt, but also DC as well (85 kt). It's why I say events like Sandy are not unprecedented or really or not as uncommon as portrayed. Hazel, the 1938 New England HU, and Agnes in 1972, were much like this, getting picked up strongly and eventually phasing in w/ an potent baroclinic trough that would have resulted in a sig storm even w/o the HU present. And they each ended up setting the big records differently. Hazel and 1938 was about wind, Agnes was about rain/flooding, and Sandy was about storm surge.

Huh?

GFS has something around that time too. Definitely something to watch. If nothing else, it looks like the mountains will get a lot more much needed snow.