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This is just the Monday stuff.

. The main change with this update is lowering the snow amounts by about 2-4 inches across the entire area. The NBM snowfall totals have also been trending downward given the guidance showing more of a mix or changeover for many areas. We are still hitting warning criteria for all areas at this point and therefore will maintain the Winter Storm Warnings. The start times of the warning has been delayed by several hours, but left the end times for now which may be to long. Snow ratios will be high to start given the arctic air mass in place, however these will then decrease quite a bit from south to north as the event continues on during Sunday and Sunday night. This will change the consistency of the snow from a dry and fluffy type to a more moist/wet type. In areas that have a mix or change to sleet and/or freezing rain will have an ice layer on top of the snow which will make conditions more difficult. Not a lot of change regarding ice amounts from freezing rain. The amount of freezing rain realized will depend on small temperature changes aloft whether it is sleet or freezing rain. The combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain will result in MAJOR impacts across the region. There is an increasing concern that some are

With apologies, what do you mean by the "FV3 GFS replacement"?

US National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA tronSposde90mimi9i6ta5uflhlfuf7ama6ggffgmm58l54507301f0tmglc · One thing we are monitoring is a "warm nose" or layer of warmer air that could change snow characteristics or even precipitation-type near or south of Pittsburgh. The first image highlights that uncertainty and how the forecast changes if it advances farther northward than expected. At this time, areas near and south of Morgantown are likely to see warm air create a period of sleet and/or freezing rain during the day Sunday. Even with lower amounts of snow, this mix of snow + ice + sleet can still impact road conditions and result in power outages. There remain scenarios that this warm layer works farther northward. What does that mean? If this does occur (a lower probability to do so), these areas may see slightly lower but still impactful amounts of heavier/wetter snow that is harder to deal with. The second graphic highlights how this event may change with time for a place like Pittsburgh: dry, fluffy snow to start becoming wet/heavy during the day Sunday before transitioning to dry/fluffy Monday morning. This is why simple temperature changes can create more nuance to a forecast that a “storm total snow” may not fully describe. Our office works hard to communicate all these aspects with regional partners so they can best navigate the challenges winter storms create.

Yeah, 18z NAM upped the ante. Over 2” in SE MA on that run.

Its still above freezing up here in McDowell County. Weird wedge. Went more south east than nestle up against the escarpment so far.

HRRR is really trending further east with the heaviest precip tonight. Not even a surprise at this point.

18z NAM with the ivt into Monday night!!

79/72 here in Key West. Just arrived at my airbnb for 2 nights. Can't believe I'm actually here. Overseas Highway...wow. The arctic front arrives here tomorrow night with temps getting down to the mid 50s. That doesn't happen every winter.

I checked their hourly graphic on this. Even thought the point and click says it, it is listed as “slight chance” on the hourly. .

It's pretty clear that the NAM is slow with the leading edge of the precip. It definitely has a bias of being too slow to advance precipitation into very dry air. The 18Z cycle doesn't bring snow into DC until 6Z, and I doubt it will take that long. It's probably good reason to ignore its QPF for the front end thump and go with wetter models. That said, none of that means that it must be off with the timing of the transition to sleet. It might very well be too fast with that, but I wouldn't base that off of not getting snow to the ground quickly enough at the leading edge.

Thread is dead lmfao

2 in of qpf here on Nam and 3km

Jesus Nam went wild

NAM versus real conditions [from WxSammy]

I need to check my batteries…saying 44 here in Taylors

I know from sports betting this stuff is a lot harder than it seems but it would take a lot to go right for CPK to break 11.3 inches tomorrow I'd think. Let alone the fact they undermeasure.

12z....I like Thursday for a light snow event w/ the incoming front then. The GEM-para, which has been good, has it as does the Euro.

Just a little difference with the NAM, 3K NAM and HRRR.

Still not seeing a lot of development to our SW in Alabama/GA.

It seems Norman has been in a dry slot most of today, and the HRRR shows that continuing this evening into tonight. Hopefully that winds up not being the case.

Damn, spit out my drink

Light snow has started here in Rocky Mount Virginia temp 19 Dp -6. Snowboard is out and ready to measure.

850mb temps noticeably colder on 18z NAM. 0C never gets to coastal CT, RI, or even Cape Cod.

Lightly snowing at Virginia Tech in Blacksburg.