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Sorry for the lateness just had some free time to post. Here are the September forecasts. I will try to update max temps around mid October and we will do the typical snowfall forecasts around the December forecast timeframe. As stated before I will try something with persistence come the new year for anomalies of a 6 month running mean to see how that works out. Bkviking I may have to invoke some late penalty for that but we will see how the month shapes up before that happens.

Also, -3/24/1983 Miller A Gulf coast major snowstorm that crossed over N FL and then offshore the SE -2/8-19/1973: historic Miller A deep Gulf snow storm that crossed C FL to well off SE coast

I will probably have much grinding of teeth, with regards to precipitation type, between mby and the hills around me but I think a decent N & W of RT2 winter is inbound.

Low of 65, high of 89. Humidity back up once again

Except the 2 elephants in the room, 2/83 and 1/16, did make it up the coast, especially 2/83. Edit: Forgot 2/58 & 3/58. Up the coast as well.

Thanks for that info. It seems that this has been a really bad year for Hawaii! When was the last season as bad as this? And the season is far from over! -H Lala: extreme rainfall -TS Moke: additional heavy rains along with gusty winds only a week after Lala thus hampering recovery efforts -H Lowell: lots of damage from sustained TS force/gusts to H force W islands, significant storm surge, and very high waves

Currently in Leadville Colorado being a degenerate. Look at these lenticular clouds!

We really need this. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Beautiful sky over Deep Creek and Wisp tonight.

I was trying to keep the heat in. lol

It has been windows open since the 3rd of July the end of last heat Wave. Torch / drought lolz...

Euro showing a possible pattern change around the 10th of this month...

Same here with windows open, very peaceful listening to steady rain, comfy temps, and Patriots on the TV. Also 0.40” in the neighborhood here.

Today's Highs: PHL: 89 TEB: 88 EWR: 87 BLM: 87 New Brnswck: 87 TTN: 87 ACY: 85 LGA: 84 NYC: 82 JFK: 80 * no intra hours highs ISP: 79

Highs: EWR: 94 (1964) NYC: 94 (1915) LGA: 93 (2016) JFK: 93 (1959) Lows: EWR: 48 (1938) NYC: 48 (1883) LGA: 53 (1956) JFK: 51 (1986) Historical: 1775: The Independence Hurricane slammed into Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. Many ships were sunk and buildings demolished. 4,000 people died in what is considered to be Canada's deadliest hurricane disaster. 1821: A tornadic outbreak affected the New England states of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont on this day. Five tornadoes reportedly touched down from this event. One storm in New Hampshire had a path width of a half mile and tracked an estimated 23 miles. This tornado killed at least six individuals, which could be the deadliest tornado in New Hampshire history. 1881: For the first time in 33 days, rain fell at Washington, DC. (Ref. for 33 day drought in 1881 ) 1889: A hurricane that formed east of the Antilles moved north and then northward toward New Jersey. The storm came within 150 miles of Atlantic City, NJ before becoming nearly stationary for 4 days. The storm, one of the greatest storms to affect the shore and ocean, then turned to the southwest toward Norfolk, VA, and dissipated. Atlantic City measured a gust to 100 mph on the 10th. At Philadelphia, PA, rain began on the 10th. This began a period of 12 consecutive days of measurable rain, with a final total of 3.70 inches. Another sudden and damaging storm surge hit Long Island, NY and the Jersey shore during the evening on the 10th, following the 1st surge that hit on the 8th. The storm was located south of Cape Cod and east of Norfolk, VA, when the surge moved in. 29 ships were sunk in the Delaware Bay, killing at least 31 sailors. Officially, 40 lives were lost attributed to this hurricane. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1919: 300 lives were lost mostly in ships near Key West, where winds were reported at 110 mph as a violent hurricane caused considerable damage. Brick structures had walls blown out and large vessels were torn from their moorings and blown on banks. A tornado destroyed six buildings and damaged 19, injuring six people at Goulds in Dade County. This hurricane killed hundreds more on its track to south Texas. The final death toll of over 600 was mostly in ships at seas. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1921 - A dying tropical depression unloaded 38.2 inches of rain upon the town of Thrall in southeastern Texas killing 224 persons. 36.4 inches fell in 18 hours. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1944 - The ""Great Atlantic Hurricane"" ravaged the east coast. The storm killed 22 persons and caused 63 million dollars damage in the Chesapeake Bay area, then besieged New England killing 390 persons and causing another 100 million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) 1960: Extremely dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Donna was taking aim on the Florida Keys for the first of her four U.S. landfalls. On this date, Donnas’ winds peaked at 150 mph with a minimum central pressure of 934 millibars or 27.58 inches of mercury. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1964: Hurricane Dora, the first storm of hurricane intensity to cross into northeast Florida from the Atlantic in 80 years of record keeping, moved inland over St. Augustine early on the 10th. St. Augustine was in the eye of the storm and recorded a sea level pressure of 966 millibars or 28.52 inches of mercury. Dora produced sustained winds of around 100 mph, and abnormally high tides to almost all coastal points north of Daytona Beach. Highest sustained winds, from the southwest, and estimated at 125 mph were reported at St. Augustine. Sustained winds of 82 mph were recorded in Jacksonville, and this was the first time in Weather Bureau history that winds of full hurricane force have been observed in Jacksonville. Storm tides reached 12 feet at St. Augustine and ranged between 5 and l0 feet above normal north of Daytona Beach. High winds in the Jacksonville area caused a massive utilities failure. One death and 8 injuries were reported from Dora. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1965: Hurricane Betsy slammed into New Orleans on the evening of September 9, 1965. 110 mph winds and power failures were reported in New Orleans. The eye of the storm passed to the southwest of New Orleans on a northwesterly track. The northern and western eyewalls covered Southeast Louisiana and the New Orleans area from about 8 PM until 4 AM the next morning. In Thibodaux, winds of 130 mph to 140 mph were reported. The Baton Rouge weather bureau operated under auxiliary power, without telephone communication. 1971 - Hurricane Ginger formed, and remained a hurricane until the 5th of October. The 27 day life span was the longest of record for any hurricane in the North Atlantic Ocean. (The Weather Channel) 1976: Record rains that started on this day and ended on the 12th came from Tropical Storm Kathleen (called a 160+ year event by Meteorologists). 14.76 inches fell on south slopes of Mt. San Gorgonio, 10.13 inches at Mt. Laguna, 8 inches at Mt. San Jacinto, Over 4 inches in the Little San Bernardino Mountains, and 1.8 to 2.8 inches in the Coachella Valley. Deep Canyon (above La Quinta) recorded 2.96 inches in three hours on the 10th. Rainfall in the Santa Rosa Mountains above the Coachella Valley was called the “heaviest in recorded history.” Six were buried and killed in sand in Ocotillo. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1983: On this date through the 10th, strong winds blasted through east central South Dakota, leaving in its wake damaged crops, hundreds of downed trees, broken windows, damaged roofs and buildings, downed power poles, and damaged vehicles. Gusts of up to 75 mph in Huron moved a semi trailer one-half block into a truck. Standing crops of corn, beans, and sunflowers suffered extensive damage in many areas with losses up to 50% reported. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1986: An F-16 fighter jet had its windshield cracked by hail on its return to the Eagle Range Training Grounds near UT’s Great Salt Lake. A lightning bolt caused a hole 6 inches deep and 6 inches wide on a runway at the Salt Lake Int’l Airport. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the central U.S. Thunderstorms in West Texas spawned four tornadoes in the vicinity of Lubbock, and produced baseball size hail and wind gusts to 81 mph at Ropesville. Thunderstorms produced hail two inches in diameter at Downs KS and Harvard NE, breaking car windows at Harvard. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Florence became a hurricane and headed for the Central Gulf Coast Region. Florence made landfall early the next morning, passing over New Orleans LA. Winds gusts to 80 mph were recorded at an oil rig south of the Chandeleur Islands. Wind gusts around New Orleans reached 61 mph. Total property damage from Florence was estimated at 2.5 million dollars. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - The first snow of the season began to whiten the mountains of Wyoming early in the morning, as for two days a moist and unusually cold storm system affected the state. By the morning of the 11th, a foot of snow covered the ground at Burgess Junction. Thunderstorms developing along a cold front crossing the Ohio Valley produced severe weather in Indiana during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Strong thunderstorm winds blew down a tent at Palestine injuring seven persons, and frequent lightning interrupted the Purdue and Miami of Ohio football game, clearing the stands. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1994: Glasgow, Montana: Temperature rises from 67°F at 5:02 AM to 97°F by 5:17 am. Heat burst is short-lived as temperature drops to 68°F by 5:40 AM the next morning. (Ref. WxDoctor) Hurricane John became extratropical in the north central Pacific Ocean, ending its 31-day life span as a tropical cyclone, the longest lived storm on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2004: Western and central New York was inundated by drenching rains as the remnants of hurricane Frances drifted north. Area-wide rainfall totaled 3 to 5 inches with the bulk of it falling in a 6 to 9 hour period from very late on this date into the next day. At least one person was killed. Across the border, heavy rains of close to 4 inches over southern Quebec Canada. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2008: Nome, AK reached a high temperature of 62°, which tied the high temperature record for the date and represented the third day during the month that a high temperature record was either tied or broken. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2011: The remnants of Lee that was a very slow moving low pressure over Ohio has now been absorbed into the circulation a low over illinois and is expected to weaken through Saturday morning. The heavy rains over the Mid-Atlantic have diminished in coverage and are now limited to central and eastern Pennsylvania. Rainfall totals for VA- Colonial Beach 1.2 SSE 20.96, Woodbridge 0.5 SSW 16.20, Lorton 1.2 NE 15.09, Fort Belvoir/Davison AFB 13.77, Reston 2 N 11.45, Chantilly 2 ESE 10.18, Quantico MCAF 9.01, Copper Hill 6.2 S 8.89, Washington National 6.90, Richmond Byrd Field 6.06 Inches. (Ref. Rainfall Totals for 20 Other States - NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Camp Springs, MD) Rich Hanauer lives in Furlong PA, between Philadelphia and Trenton NJ. Buckingham, PA (In this article) is just north of Philadelphia that had 24.71 inches of rain from Aug. 1st to today. (Ref. Newspaper Article from PA on flooding ) (Ref. Map of Rainfall Totals for VA from Sep. 5th to 9th) 2013: Historical rainfall occurred in northern Colorado from September 9 to September 16 and resulted in severe flash flooding along the northern Front Range of Colorado and subsequent river flooding downstream along the S 2017: Hurricane Irma was downgraded to a Category 3 storm shortly before noon Saturday after its maximum sustained winds weakened to 125 mph, but it was expected to strengthen before moving toward southwest Florida on Sunday. The National Hurricane Center said Irma was continuing to slam the north coast of Cuba Saturday but had weakened slightly. As of 2:00 p.m. EDT, the storm was located about 145 miles southeast of Key West, Fla.

Yeah windows open. Nice soaking rain here. 0.40” and looking wet to the west.

Latest Natty Blend from tomorrow through the weekend

High of 64F today. 62F now but honestly doesn’t feel “chilly”… it’s 62/62. It feels pleasant with the dew.

While obviously not in the same ballpark as Iniki, Lowell seems to be the worst hurricane impact to Kauai since that one: https://www.civilbeat.org/2026/09/hurricane-lowell-parts-of-kauai-like-a-war-scene/ A lot of gusts over hurricane strength in Kauai were reported, including at spots near sea level. Lihue’s highest sustained wind was 61 mph so the island did end up getting 50-knot winds. https://www.weather.gov/hfo/lowellpns

I've done twelve 14ers. Long's Peak was the first, and most challenging. Looking back, I don't think I'd want to do it again. Too many spots where one slip means serious injury at the least.

My apologies - I was referring to the August data, not July. ERSSTv6 was 1.67 in August. BOM GAMSSA was approximately 2.25.

I’ve been following this closely. CFSv2 has dropped RONI peak from +3.5 to +3.0 over last month or so due to August pause. That’s just a pause though and notable 3.4 warming has finally resumed. But I don’t see it catching back up. Thus, I’m currently at +3.0 for my educated guess. The BoM is way up at +3.6 and will likely bust too high like it did in ‘23. However, its SST anomalies are based on a dataset that’s ~0.3 to 0.4 warmer than ERSST, which NOAA uses, and which just adds confusion. Keep in mind that 1+2 has recently been strong thus making it the most E based on record for early Sept. beating 1997.