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Usually it’s the other way around though. We’re usually looking good and then out of nowhere that f***ing GL Low will appear like clockwork.

Looks good. Liking the 0.25 contour cutting through DAW. Another case where Rochester has a lot more icing risk than my hood just 10 miles SE. I could see DAW getting 0.25” but my backyard getting less than 0.1”. We’ve had a number of events with very favorable atmospheric icing conditions but a degree or less saves us from disaster. Not the case just 5 miles to my northwest…

As I've said all along, 80 and sunny doesn't seem so bad after all.

I have been comparing operational to ensembles for a long time. The ensembles have often been too bullish on precip. for Augusta that never materialized. Too many opinions. AI may be the trend for the future, but again, the AI ensemble snow prediction was nuts not long ago.

That warm nose progresses north pretty quickly so yeah, Maybe 1-3" or so for you, Maybe 1" here.

We warm for a little Monday but we may have a glacier on our hands next week.

January! DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.5

We also had 25 mean temp in Dec 1989, but then we had 40-41 mean temps in Jan and Feb (1990), and 46 mean temp in March.

Yes, the La Niña cases were snowier.

I'm hoping for 3-5 inches of snow/sleet before the flip to freezing rain and we'd be mint. However I think it's going to be more like 1-2

January records for the New York City area:

I think the sig icing risk is confined to the valleys of NNE. Atmosphere is warm just above the surface…

God lord.

This is manageable, WWA are up for a mixed bag.

Confused and disagreeing. Let’s see how much ice acretes.

Was briefly in Norwell late this morning. 5 inches of nice fluff. When was cold coming from the north though with snow grains in the air. Brutal and raw.

Forecast: Verification: Grade B+ Biggest miss was Cape Ann area, where OES never materialized. Using a blend of the 3K NAM and HRRR as a smart idea, as HRRR was a little low for eastern areas and the 3K NAM was a little high. Forecast was accurate but would like to make a map farther out, maybe 24 hours, for the next one, as more of a challenge. This one was issued 3 hours before start time in CT...

I’ll give myself an A here. Verification was pretty good

We can only hope

For the first time in recorded history, Wichita has achieved 3 straight 70+ degree days in December. This pattern sucks. FWIW, the GFS and Euro both look pretty dry for the next 7-10 days. Ensembles may be picking up on something after that, but variability is extremely high. Looking at 30 days and counting without moisture (for Wichita and southern Kansas)...

yeah thats a straight rip and read of how much QPF falls as rain with temps below 32, not how much will actually accrete

Definitely more Tool than any of the tools in my garage

Disappeared after getting 5 posted.

Those are typically overdone by a ton

18z hrrr is really bullish for our entire area. .