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GGEM dropping a casual 6-8”

How is this not snow?

Yes

I found some of the euro seasonal stuff from Fall 2023 for that winter.

Very rare occasions will it hit 80 in October and 80 in November is unheard of.

Do you know if there are discussions within the NWS about a potential future of probabilistic warnings? I am currently taking a Weather and Society class (which is extremely interesting) which involves reading alot of research papers. I guess there has been some work and studies done about probabilistic tornado warnings, where you have your deterministic warning polygon but within the polygon is color coded probabilities of being directly impacted by the tornado. I have many mixed emotions about anything probabilistic in terms of public communication, especially with something like warnings but the results of such studies are actually a bit intriguing in that they may help influence (positively) people's decision making and action taken. Would the NWS ever consider such approach?

In recent years it has been much later. More like mid october.

Average date of last 80 for NYC is September 29.

If you’re central park you can go a year without much snow at all LOL. More seriously though nyc has gotten the short end of the stick in recent winters. Even though last winter was great, the park still ended with 44” which was significantly below parts of NJ directly adjacent to the city. I think manhattan is a uniquely hostile environment for snow given its latitude.

And I will be camping for a week beginning next weekend in Searsport, Maine. Hope to see some peak leaf activity especially in Acadia National Park. Temperatures there this week have been 60s during the day and 40s at night. I’m gonna have to hope for an East Coast heat wave!

I see many of the models have most of Sunday's rain missing to the north now.

Works best if you’re already drunk….. as always…..

Cockroaches in the dust? As always ……

love watching the bar get lower and lower

Special update increased odds of 99L developing to 60% and that seems low given satellite. To me I’m not sure how this isn’t a depression at least but I think it is classified as such at 5 regardless

September 18 1997: An F3 tornado destroys several buildings and damages numerous others. Hundreds of trees are knocked down. A number of cattle are also killed in a collapsed barn. One man is injured when the tornado engulfs his car and throws it into a nearby woods. A second man is critically injured when his garage collapses, then dies several weeks later. The total path length of the tornado from 1 NE of Lastrup to Onamia is 17 miles. Total property damage is estimated at $1.7 million. In total, 6 tornadoes touch down in Morrison, Mille Lacs, and Kanabec. 1991: Duluth gets 2.5 inches of snow five days before the beginning of Fall. 1971: A brush fire at Lake Alexander in Morrison County spawns a 10-foot wide, 50-foot high 'fire whirl.' It moved out over the lake, overturned a 1,800 pound pontoon boat, and then dissipated as it moved back to shore. 1903: 3.75 inches of rain falls in the Minneapolis area. For Friday, September 18, 2026 1926 - The great ""Miami Hurricane"" produced winds reaching 138 mph which drove ocean waters into the Biscayne Bay drowning 135 persons. The eye of the hurricane passed over Miami, at which time the barometric pressure reached 27.61 inches. Tides up to twelve feet high accompanied the hurricane, which claimed a total of 372 lives. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1941 - One of the greatest aurora borealis or northern lights ever observed in the central Atlantic and mid-central portions of the U.S. occurred on the night of September 18-19th. The displays continued from twilight until just before dawn and were observed as far south as Florida and southern California. 1987 - Early morning thunderstorms in northern Texas produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Sulphur Springs, and 2.50 inches of rain in one hour at Commerce, which caused widespread street flooding. Bonham TX received 4.50 inches of rain which also resulted in widespread street flooding as Pig Branch overflowed its banks. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A strong cold front produced severe thunderstorms in the north central U.S. High winds behind the cold front gusted to 92 mph at Fort Collins CO, and up to a foot of snow blanketed the mountains of Montana, with seven inches reported at Great Falls. High winds in Colorado caused three million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Hurricane Hugo hit Puerto Rico, producing wind gusts to 92 mph at San Juan, and wind gusts to 120 mph at Roosevelt Roads. Hugo produced a storm surge of four to six feet, and northeastern sections of the island were deluged with more than ten inches of rain. Hugo claimed the lives of a dozen persons in Puerto Rico, and caused a bilion dollars damage, including 100 million dollars damage to crops. Thunderstorms representing what remained of Hurricane Octave continued to bring heavy rain to the valleys of northern California. Heavier 24 hour rainfall totals included 3.15 inches at Redding, and 2.66 inches at Red Bluff. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 18 Fri National First Love Day 18 Fri National Cheeseburger Day 18 Fri National POW/MIA Recognition Day 18 Fri International Equal Pay Day 18 Fri Air Force Day 18 Fri Hug A Greeting Card Writer Day 18 Fri National Day of Civic Hacking 18 Fri Chiropractic Founders Day 18 Fri National Cartonnage Day 18 Fri National Report Kickback Fraud Day 18 Fri National Respect Day 18 Fri Rice Krispie Treat Day 18 Fri Read An eBook Day 18 Fri U.S. Air Force Day 18 Fri World Water Monitoring Day 18 Fri Global Company Culture Day 18 Fri National HIV/AIDS and Aging Awareness Day

Looked this morning and yeah…2026 Atlantic for ya.

Yes. Typically nina is much better than nino here. But the wet signal is so strong in the east that further "west" here in eastern Michigan there is not the usual dry signal for ninos. Models range from average precip to above average depending on model. Weather forums have a wide range of weather enthusiasts so theres lots of different preferences. Last winter was great for me. Cold, white and frozen, a winter lovers dream. I already know thats not happening this time, so thats immediately a knock down of expectation for me. But if you're north of 40N and think you can go nearly 6 months from November thru April with hardly any snow, good luck!

October 2019 hit 93 degrees.

Just filled up my car. I'm okay with Iran having a nuclear weapon

Looks like a stubborn Lake breeze for most of the rest of this month with little or no rain on tap. Basically 60/45 temps on tap here in town.

Yeah it was good but definitely can't drink much of it