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Verbatim, it’s showing an Aleutian ridge regime (-WPO), if it goes poleward, as is being shown, it would tap cross-polar flow/arctic air into western Canada

Looking like a Winter Weather Advisory will be hoisted tomorrow for Thursday night into Friday morning across the Mountains. GSP in their Hazardous Weather Outlook is mentioning snow tomorrow night mixing with sleet/freezing rain/rain Friday morning as the warm nose builds in during the daylight hours of Friday.

5:1 ratios for this would be my guess as well

First stab at a snowfall map (made for my instagram but might as well post it here). Since it's made for public consumption I always hedge my bets a bit so its a bit more conservative than my true thinking.

The only thing getting torched that period is the Bills defense when they come into New England

I agree.

One thing to watch: color me doubtful that we get close to 50° under thick cloud cover tomorrow

Continuation of the Great Lakes cutter, I 78 to I-84 hugger rain-snow line, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks since 2018-2019. Very persistent over-amped Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. Makes you wonder what it’s going to take to shift this pattern?

18Z HRRR almost identical to 12Z for Wake

This is going to be one of those events where heavy returns = snow, lighter returns will mean light rain. Gotta hope you’re under a band that thumps.

This is my second busiest time of year. I'm extremely busy with fall cleanups and decorating. In my 30 years of landscaping, this was the hardest year to keep up with leaves and tree debris that I can ever remember. I'm still trying to get some of my properties clean from this fall.

Good move by the HRRR but still south of the euro. Also at long range for that model. However, good changes were visible h5 early on

Yeah, we have seen a record expansion of the Aleutian ridge since 1980. Some years the axis is further west near the Aleutians. Other years the ridge is displaced further east over the NE PAC and or Canada.

IF these were to be close to reality, they’d open the door for frigid air to plunge into the US ~12/18-21: MJO phase 8 would be supportive in Dec 12Z EPS: frigid MT/W ND N into SW Canada 12Z EPS: cross polar flow 12Z GEFS: frigid N MT/N Plains/MN northwestward into SW Canada: 12Z GEFS: cross polar flow

More mean cashing in a bit more on present pattern. Clippers are back

Its really not much of a warm layer

I got some snow soundings here.

HRRR

Caution on the clown maps for the HRRR. I did some poking around and it’s a rain sounding for most of the event except for the Virginia border northward, despite the surface depiction

I'm a landscaper, brother, and I don't do snow removal.

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The 18z HRRR is beautiful

Afternoon Issued Winter Weather Index

Sleet bomb for mby.

This is actually great news for me.As much as I love snow, I don't want to see any until after Dec 23. Every day it snows before that I lose several hundred dollars. I'm never on board with early season snow. If it snows I'll enjoy it, but it's better for me, and my clients if it holds until later in December.. That said, I don't think cpa will make it very long without some unforeseen winter weather surprise this month.