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Is it possible I'm having a hot hand right now? Another nice blob headed for mby as i type. This is the greenest drought i can remember. No dead grass here yet. The heat will kill it regardless.

Raining in Middletown. Stopped at the Stephens City town limit sign. Drove through and hit rain again north of Stephens City halfway to the Alamo complex. You can't make this shit up.

The historic June 2026 heatwave finally began to release its grip on France. Nevertheless, a few locations set monthly and all-time records. Germany and the Czech Republic also set all-time heat records.

There’s really only a few days in the period of record (150+ years) where we’re pulling off widespread 102-104+ at the surface. I assume July 1911 everything went right for CNE to get all of those 102-106° readings. 850s must’ve been a solid 25-26C. With sun and no taint in the heart of warm season I just slap 15C onto the 850s this far out (for the valley hot spots) and adjust slightly upward or downward from there. I don’t see much reason to stray from upper 90s for the interior. Maybe an MCS or poorly timed cloud debris mucks it up, but not gonna overanalyze that in the mid range.

The Rossby Wave is going kick off a strong Phoon easpcially if the Euro were to be right on the 0Z run today in the upcoming days,that would potentially be catastrophic if it were to take that route for Southern Japan as it heads into the Sea of Japan,tho this far out we dont know what troughs will even steer it

With the temperature rising into the lower 80s, it was a great day to see some summer scenes at the New York Botanical Garden.

If there's a blizzard or ice storm warning, doesn't that imply... ...never mind.

Sure. But it doesn’t take much sun near peak heating this time of year to tag +15C on top of those 850s at the sfc…especially away from the coast. I’d be shocked if BOS/PWM end up that cool throughout given the midlevel temps. It’s July…not May.

Problem with big heat ..particularly nearing the top of physical plausibility ( which this has potential to produce ...) is that we have to think of it as maxing. That means by default it becomes easier to correct downward based upon least excuse imagined than it does to try and push the top thru geophysical limitations. It's true... one wrongly timed cirrostratus this, or the 850 mb hottest pulse ends up at 06z instead of 15z ... these thus become critical as limiting factors. Synergistic heat wave, notwithstanding. Having said that, this could cap out at 95 and bust the mid range hundos, and we'd still verify a heat headline scenario. So it's really a matter of bragging rights whether we make 101 vs "only" ping high 97s out of this. I don't think those 105's were really very realistic - ...or in the least, sufficed it is to say, given what we know of model tech error and biases at D 5-8 range, we'd need to have ti be the next day ( as in 24 to 36 hour lead) before a regional record stroke of that amount is confident.

You got drawn in because I admire and greatly respect your demonstrated intelligence.

Where is the DGEX when you need it! 168 hr NAM...right!

Ha…I was gonna say. You know where to find every model.

Yes, PDS - particularly dangerous situation. I am just talking about how blizzard and ice storm warnings will have this label soon as an option.

Boy, this worked out well (cha-ching) for PECO workers w/the impending heat wave and possible power outages. Bargaining chips... 80F/DP 69F https://6abc.com/post/peco-workers-go-strike-july-4-ibew-local-614-officials-say/19380766/

i meant 12z

Days like this are usually reserved for winter storm fails.

Heat watches up for 5th period ... ? huh

GFS MOS has been trending down since yesterday for BOS. 7/1 12z Sat it had 98, now it is 82 12z run today. and gets it no higher than 92 7/2-3. PWM has been going down as well, now no 90 fcst on the MOS. Dirty ridge clouds are a problem along w/ waves of RW/TRW. Also onshore flow from weak FROPAs. You are not going to max out sfc temps what 850 temps suggest in such a pattern. It is unwise hedging so high early on given the uncertainties that have existed all along, esp. for eastern New England. It is better to start more modest far out, and then adjust, if necessary, as the event gets closer.

98f frcst for thurs. Puff puff pass Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

https://beta.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf_aifs/850th/us_ne?run=2026062800&forecastHour=6

PDS? Is that Particularly Dangerous Situation? Thread relevant, nothing today but a passing light shower earlier.

Looks like the NWS is now getting gated... jeez

word - I'm mostly preaching to the others

Weird day on here, but anyway, this chicken looks GOOD