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  2. I think a big missed effect of these much higher dews and in turn much higher night time temps is to increase SST’s a lot faster than one would expect… We get it though—without much thought— but only when this is observed in our back yard pool temp…
  3. Looking at the 04/00z NAM 700 analysis, a large area of +12 C exists over the region. 00z IAD sounding had +12.2 C at 700. +12 C at 700 typical caps things solid this time of year, at least locations near sea level. Today it cools ever so slightly at 700, and at 500 for that matter, and the ridging aloft weakens a bit. so we get more flow aloft, esp. at 700. Sfc T/Td basically the same as Fri so things should light up very well later the in aftn! CAPE 3000-4000 and decent mid-level lapse rates, so wet microbursts common. There is no 0-3 km CAPE, so tor threat is nil (LFC to high). Cloud bases should be fairly high so good photo ops. Winds 850 and below very light so storm motion may be slow and more mesoscale impacts to motion (back-building). Should see some big rains in some areas as PWATs juice up nicely right over the region during the day. Sun-Mon looks essentially the same w/ even more impressive PWATs. We do need the rain badly!
  4. Reading between the lines I think it means they are doing little or nothing until daybreak.
  5. That was intense. I thought we were getting a tornado
  6. Got the same, good times.
  7. Agreed!!! Lets go for it. Records for everyone hopefully.
  8. Sorry to hear your power is out. We just missed the rain but if I had to choose I will take the miss and keep the power on.
  9. Thanks for the overview summary. Dew points often have even bigger issues than temps are ASOS/AWOS sites. I years ago looking at the OK mesonet (first installed in the mid 90s). Mesonet sites are typically sited properly and actually geared for climate data (ASOS/AWOS are geared more toward aviation). So many days when it was hot and high dew points, the ASOS/AWOS would almost universally had higher dew points than the mesonet. Well, they both can't be right! I'd take mesonet data over ASOS/AWOS the vast majority of the time. I recall about 10 years ago during a heatwave, JFK's ASOS DP got wacky and shot to 84 one day. Not sure what happened there. Also, there are so many types of wx stations our there (govt and private), all for different uses. Some are sited to monitor the local environment, like a marsh or a swamp. So what do you think the dew point will do when the equipment is next to or in a marsh/swamp? It's similar to all the marine sites out there. The anemometers are not all at the standard 10m elevation, so you have to account for this when talking records and the like. AWOS sites on oil platform heliports in the Gulf are often 100 ft or more ASL. Oh, and how about the AWOS at the smaller airports in the Corn Belt? IA has it a lot where at a certain times in the summer, the DPs get into the 80s. That is a local effect since corn has high evapotranspiration. However, at times this can impact convective initiation and intensity in the state and adjacent areas! A few papers has done studies on this. For the Persian Gulf, dew points in the 90s are a real thing in some areas. Qeshm Island (METAR code: OIKQ) in Iran is one such area. Every August in the mornings, they get ridiculous DPs in the 90s w/ heat indices as high as 180! I've checked the METARs and they are legit, given the location and how diurnally the dew points drops in the aftn as the BL mixed out. And the island's population is 149k. Quite impressive that humans can live in such an environment w/ little issues!
  10. When's the last time we had heat indexes this high at this time of night? I mean...bruh, lol
  11. Messi was leaving the pitch and the look on his face was - we really dodged a bullet there.
  12. Heat index is 104 lol... I mean its almost midnight
  13. Today
  14. I was rooting hard for them..would have been an amazing story to knock off Argentina. What a run they had.
  15. https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/03/us/shark-attack-new-york-swimmer they bitin'
  16. My town went ahead with their fireworks tonight despite the storm damage. My power ended up coming back on after about two hours, but I noticed most streets were out while heading downtown. Twigs and small branches were everywhere, and a couple streets were impassible with downed limbs and power lines. Needless to say turnout at the fireworks was pretty low.
  17. Yep, nailed twice today. This afternoon’s were pretty crazy, wind must have gusted to 50 where I’m staying. Quite a bit of tree/property damage around the city.
  18. Yeesh that’s brutal. 88/77 at our house in Alexandria at 1115. Just disgusting.
  19. As I said, idk what happened at PIT but July 1977 had some brutal heat. However summers with brutal heat, regardless of the winter, are not uncommon in this area with our extreme seasons. But I do think spring 1977 gets lost in the shuffle. That was a very impressive and fast change from one of the coldest winters on record to one of the warmest springs.
  20. I don't think a Winter -EPO El Nino is impossible. Further north it's more random than the mid-latitudes and the historical analog composite is probably biased to +epo (same with +ao and +nao of super Nino's). The warmth is definitely winning the battles in 2026 so far, however.
  21. Detroit has now seen a temp range in 2026 from -10° to 97°. The DTX NWS range is -21° to 95°.
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