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Sounds like a classic +PDO Nino February. Might be an epic stretch coming up.

i used to live in Winnipeg, Manitoba… while it will be cold here, Winnipeg, and points northwest into Alaska are in a whole two league levels away from us..if we get to -40 degrees with 50 mph gusts whistling between 20 story buildings…then you will understand.

No concerns on the 18z HRRR through 29hrs. It's a touch flatter, colder, and slower down south... exactly what I was hoping to see. But it's obviously not impacting us yet. Sure the HRRR is less reliable at range, but its 6-hr trends are sometimes useful.

Depends how cold it is. If under 25 it’s sticking at any rate really. Above 28 ya won’t stick as much

Of interest on that list of top 50 storms - 11 of those 50 have occurred since 2000. So any climate changes at least here in Chesco are not lessening the frequency of big snowstorms!

NYC: 10 Boston: 15 Philly: 13 DC: 9 Hartford: 13 Albany: 13

I hope you are right and Longview gets 0.25" or less freezing rain. The ISW calls for 0.5"-0.75" with up to 1" of ice, but as aggiegeog noted, we seem to be dancing along a fine line.

Although heavy freezing rain is likely preferable to lighter freezing rain because it won't accrete as efficiently on trees, power lines, etc.

Strangely enough the 12z EPS actually favors the period after the big storm on the GFS and CMC. Maybe not tha tstrange since the Euro didn't have it, but maybe there's a "split the difference" reality in there. Elizabethton as just an example

CFS weeks 4,5,&6 are normal to AN precip and a -AO, -NAO, -EPO, +PNA combo straight through lol. This -AO cycle looks like it wants to follow the classic 45 day cycle. All this happens during our best snow climo. Feeling very confident more snow events are coming. Not chances... events... heh

I think you were onto that aspect last week if memory serves... some post along the way. And I agree... The problem with this being an index -based signal ( meaning it seems to only be in the indexes) is that that does not qualify aspects like actual positioning of features into sweep or key-slot positions. That's the the reason why I've only been discussing the window in time and really pushing an actual event. Yet... I mean this can formulate - there's time I don't think that is impossible; one aspect I keep noticing is that the +PNA ridge in the west is actually relatively fixed at along a MT longitude thru the period. It's not clear why the models have a boner to position the trough couplet so far E of that total wave space like that. stretch city!

5. 1994 (I was yet born but my Mom was expecting me) 4. Snowpocalpse-Snowmageddon 3. January 2016 2. PDII 1. Jan 1996 is the alltimer list in my lifetime. My HECS of all time is March 1957.

Depends on where in Alaska you live. I was a kid/early teen in the Southeast panhandle and winters were not bad at all. It was cold, but not that bad. This stuff coming up is much worse that what we got on the coast.

I don’t know why people love Kliff so much. Dude has never won a damn thing. I hate his scheme, but if Lamar supports it, he might know something I don’t (Definitely knows more than me). I just can’t stand him.

I just want 12.1" to say I received over a foot. I'm a simple guy...

Really surprised nobody posted the EPS

There’s no more trees left in the arrowhead of Minny

Nov- 2 Dec- 12 Jan- 10 Feb- 13 Mar- 4 Apr- 1

Would imaging being a professional you are a wee bit busy!! good luck!!

This thing trends 15 miles south Chattanooga is in a world of hurt…. .

It's really close. Models are struggling.

What a time to be alive. I can’t wait for this to spread on social media and end up on the news.

Meaning not occasional gusts. I think the idea is the gusts have to be occurring often and not just here and there.

I tend to think you guys do get more sleet than zr. I’ll go on a limb and say .2-.3” zr and 3” sleet for Longview

Hey Paul, I don't have that list for you readily available, sorry! The NOAA climate sites that I use for this allow you to parse the data by day, but not necessarily by "storm". So I could find this for you through some manual interpretation and adding up snow from known storms by each day, but I can't do it right now haha.