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CTP has me at 2-5” too

We take that look with an EML

He answered me on IG post whether he was coming to LI and he said he couldn’t get a flight. Not sure that stops him.

38.3/29.7, cooling off nicely Sending big Nat 20 energy for tomorrow. Let's reel it in.

We had a VW bus and a bug in 1978. Snow drifts were over their roofs when it finally was done. It took us a week to completely shovel the driveway. No snowblower. And that would have been useless I think. Mass National Guard front end loaders finally cleared our street. I was scared and fascinated by them. Snow forts that remain unrivaled.

Exactly!! I absolutely believe there will be some 4"+ per hour rates

A lot of those mesos are usually out in left field…especially the convective allowing ones.

Feb 22nd/23rd "There's now way..." Obs Thread

Obs thread. Eyebrow no longer raised but furrowed for now...6" snowfall or else my contention about the last week of February being bad fortune for snow stands, lol Hoping for things to work out! Congrats to all who score!

I'm here. Despite my wife's misgivings...

Starts flaking 8-10am, gets cranking late afternoon

Also—-fwiw, GFS seems to get cold feet to a degree in the last runs up to go time almost every coastal for the past like forever.

Again, fail due to NW trend. That's good in our case (I know you kniw.)

What are we looking at 12 hours from onset, as an indicator of likely outcome? Hrrr, nam, current radar? .

Great article! Love the historical research, as always. Now I can amaze family and friends.

That is crazy. Have never seen anything like that. My brother is in the 1 to 21 inches in Delaware.

I was just showing the seclusion at H85. The H6-7 fronto gets even up to here as the mid/upper lows weaken and widen. But there’s like 70kt of inflow that hits a brick wall PHL-NYC-HFD

Mesos should definitely be weighted more as you get closer to an event... Small scale features impacts sensible weather and courser models cannot resolve them/assimilate them well. A lot of members repeat this tidbit each storm, but the s need their dopamine fix. Here's how NCEP weighs the models for the NBM (snowfall specifically because I'm obsessed with it). Regardless, the weights won't vary much by variable. Since we're ~20-42hrs away from the event, I sorted that column by importance (values are in %). Note: The top 5 model weights are all mesoscale modeling systems and the GFS (diagnostic) is only weighted by 3%.

Wee Willie Winky

according to NAM 3k it could start as early as 8 am in nyc and LI

Shut up craig!

Could be an epic week, especially after all the kvetching a couple days ago.

you never know.....

I look at this storm as it’s a miller b and we’re lucky to even be playing Sorta when the redskins made the nfc title last year

I noticed that too