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I noticed over in the MA Medium Range thread that the Euro weeklies have been getting progressively cooler as the forecast periods approach. Interestingly, while searching for any tidbits for early winter thoughts on YouTube, I found a September forecast from Bam Weather. It looks like I'm not the only one who noticed the changes on the weeklies. According to Bam, both the regular Eps products and Gefs have been too warm lately. Otoh, the EPS AI has been much better. I put the link to the video below and it's got some decent info in addition to the comments on the EPS AI. Take a look if you get a chance. More importantly, the performance of the EPS AI should probably be followed through the Fall to see if it holds any edge come winter.

As you may have noticed over in the Medium Range thread, the Euro weeklies have been getting progressively cooler as the forecast periods approach. Interestingly, while searching for any tidbits for early winter thoughts on YouTube, I found a September forecast from Bam Weather. It looks like I'm not the only one who noticed the changes on the weeklies. According to Bam, both the regular Eps products and Gefs have been too warm lately. Otoh, the EPS AI has been much better. I put the link to the video below and it's got some decent info in addition to the comments on the EPS AI. Take a look if you get a chance. More importantly, the performance of the EPS AI should probably be followed through the Fall to see if it holds any edge come winter.

Anyone confused about 66/50 is probably confused about a great many things.

i think it is safe to say i wore my tennessee vols shirt for a good reason i heard that they won today "TN beats Syracuse 45-26" "

Another great day 76/55 temp split.... August turned out to be the total opposite of July.

Received 1.80" of rainfall here for August. Meteorological Summer (J-J-A) totaled 7.88". Could have been worse for sure but still quite dry as most of the rainfall events were followed by 10-14 day stretches with little to no rain. Sure hope we can cash in on something decent this coming week. Hurricane season has been pretty lame. Slightly above normal ACE to date with 39 ACE units vs. normal 34. Erin is responsible for 32 of the 39. We will go below normal ACE wise by Tuesday. Nothing looks remotely interesting at the moment.

72.6° here +1

GFS has Northern WI getting first flakes late this week lol Incredibly unlikely

Pretty chilly lake day when the sun not out. Got caught in shower. Hanging out on bow of boat watching float plane guy Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Can't argue about today's weather. Sunny, blue skies with a little breeze at times...got a nice road "on a mountain bike" ride in earlier.

They are pretty loud up here. Actually, a few years ago (17 year) they basically stayed about 4 miles to our west. This year is actually worse. Their time is short as I'm seeing more and more on the sidewalks.

It has been stunning how dry August has been in the Northeast. I cannot ever remember DC area this refreshingly comfortable in August either!

Just enjoy the August that was. Most comfortable of all time.

Had a forecast high of 83 today. We hit 89. So much for that cool down. Humidity up too

My point is the idea that the Gulf or Caribbean is some sort of escalated threat because they haven't been 'touched' or active so far. It's almost always supportive (when it comes to sst's/ohc) throughout the season regardless of activity.

It is now all but certain that New York City will see no rainfall for the August 22-31 period. Such an outcome favors a drier than normal September. When this was first noted last Sunday, the CFSv2 showed wetter than normal conditions for September. The CFSv2 now shows a drier than normal September:

Great day for August, after a low of 53, made it to 76.

And that’s not surprisingly the area of formation where the EWs have been suggesting would probably be the greatest threat to the US 9/15+ though SC north has a notable threat from the open Atlantic, too: 9/15-21: 9/22-28:

The coolest air mass so far this season moved into the region last night. The temperature fell into the 50s in New York City and 40s in some outlying areas. Low temperatures included: Atlantic City: 51° Binghamton: 44° Bridgeport: 55° Danbury: 47° Farmingdale: 55° Islip: 56° Montgomery: 45° New Haven: 58° New York City-Central Park: 57° New York City-JFK Airport: 57° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 59° Newark: 57° Philadelphia: 57° Poughkeepsie: 46° Trenton: 51° White Plains: 53° Tonight will be a similar night. Afterward, temperatures will finish the weekend with highs in the middle and upper 70s under abundant sunshine. Generally cool and dry conditions will persist through the middle of next week. A system could bring some rain on Thursday or Friday. The big weather story next week will be the development of a massive heatdome oer western Canada. Temperatures in parts of British Columbia could challenge the Canadian national September record of 101° (38.3°C) from Windsor, ON that has stood since September 6, 1881. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +8.01 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.382 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7° (2.4° below normal). That would make August 2005 the coolest August since 2000. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

What a day. 10/10 all day on these.

No but warmth and some dews are

This could be the most overplayed and tiring argument year after year when it comes to ssts/ohc and the potential. When it comes to the 'waters' the GoM and NW Caribbean are generally always supportive of not only tropical formation but intense storms throughout the season. I

So, we're just about to finish CoCgust. Now on to CoCtember and then CoCtober. Low dews and sunshine for all. Don't ask for rain, it ain't coming.

In the 50s all day up north is pretty chilly for an August day.

Boy, what a low temperature this morning! 44.2 degrees around 6:45am. Like many others have mentioned, it's been a really long time since widespread 40's were recorded in August, albeit the 30th, but officially August and still both meteorological summer and astronomical summer. This weather is so wonderful, especially the low dew points. Oh, I forgot to mention that this low was 14 degrees below the average low of 58.2 degrees for today. Normal (average) high for today is 82 degrees. It seems it's been impossible to score a low temp departure this great in late summer in a really long time.