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Classic weaken trend as it moves into the state?

And the tropical forum, it was a slow season, so we have to find a gfs/euro battle somewhere. Sticking with my 7.5 prediction for my visit to Downers Grove starting tomorrow. We have to watch the Euro-AI, its been consistent on a surge of 32+ air Sunday morning, Euro has the surge farther east. For now, looks like enough cold air in place to keep it frozen north of Kankakee. The system will be a win for many.

Models want to add more ridging across the polar domain. This may be the early effects of the recent SSW and if well timed with the next mjo 8 wave, this could set us up nicely for late dec - early jan. Still expecting a mid month relaxation where we warm up for a week or so.

New daily record low sea ice extent:

I dug into the details too! lol I'll live in fantasy model land as much as I want.

Yes, THAT is how we win and its inside an established pattern. Not a wave breaking into something as we're setting up. Really would like to see at least a slightly -NAO to help lock in our cold air though.

Scooter knows

And here’s even more good trends vs yesterday for cold lovers: Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS AO through 12/10: rose to solid +AO of +1: Today’s (11/27) GEFS AO: neutral/near 0:

Like warm fronts, that pride front ripped through Tolland first.

Albany looks like the jackpot. I think this is a north of I84 storm. Hopefully coastal plain can cash in at some point in Dec..

Buddy, it’s a joke. Pretty sure he knows it as I made the same joke about 3 years ago

The 6z euro is probably best case here. Everything else is a mess south of pike

So? No need to be a jerk…Jerry is in town for the week and hoping for the best outcome like all of us.

more likely

Bath ME 82 Mattepoisett 7

That was a perfect set up. Cold High anchored NW of us in Canada and a huge slug of moisture running Sw to NE. As the run ended we had 6"+ on the ground and several panels of snow left to go past 240 hours. North of DC would of been easily 12+ amounts.

This reads as though there could be a dramatic, 300-esque movie historical significance to it but I fear I may be misinterpreting this particular “Roman helmet”…

Snow flurries

I made some quick markups on the chart from the 6Z GEFS to better illustrate what you're seeing on those charts. This ties in to the post I made a couple of days ago regarding kelvin waves and the mjo signal. The true Phase 8 attempt will be right near mid month. Just out of range still but closing in. Effectiveness remains to be seen of course. Notice on this also how the la nina influence re-emerges in between passing kelvin waves causing the loops on those charts.

If the more favorable phase 8 progs today vs yesterday are not enough good news for those who prefer it cold in the E US, I’ve got more: Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS NAO through 12/10: headed to moderate +NAO Today’s (11/27) GEFS NAO through 12/11: no +NAO as it stops rising at dead neutral (0):

Agree I think 3 days out from the potential is reasonable, we in this zone have been burned so often even in the 3 day window. My thinking is wait till the event is in the US so the guidance can better pickup on the atmosphere.

Give me the set up at the end of the Can run last night. Endless overrunning into a stout HP. I think these set ups only occur on model runs though.

tbh I dont see much accumulating here.

Likely picking up on some of that CAD ice potential

I’m not saying they won’t and it’s very possible we see a full scale shift next year with the Nino. My point is that the cooling you are seeing right now is due to the very persistent and strong convection, which is to be expected with the standing wave there. Although they have cooled, there are still anomalies of +30C, which is why the convection is there in the first place, the atmosphere always places it over the warmest waters due to evaporation and latent/sensible heat release