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Big story this year continues to be the strong W to NW flow behind the lows racing by to our north. So far this year has had 63 days at Newark with wind gusts reaching 40 mph or higher. This resulted in the impressive sieche on Lake Erie

To bad its post 240 hours, but that progression on the deterministic 0z Euro was pretty great for East TN and especially the NC mountains. Gawd: And this later in the run especially: The past couple of runs the Euro seems like it is trying to find ways to make snow storms for East TN past 200 hours out or so. Inspired me to take the first season at look at tropical convection mess. And it is a mess: Two tropical critters in the 3/4/5 regions (numbers 1 and 3), one over Darwin (number 5) (probably causing the SOI to jump around when weighing the MSLP of Darwin against Fiji) and some generic tropical convection in regions I've labelled numbers 2 and 4. I think this is likely why the RMM plots are divided. I was ninja'd by Jax while typing, but I like his CHI 200 plots above. Seems like there is a pretty good agreement of movement into favorable phases. Let's see how they look once these tropical critters in the unfavorable phases wind down.

I’m gonna go with, “we need the rain”

What if the ground is too cold?

First person to say “the ground is too warm for accumulation” gets insta-banned

Dont jinx it, we still have to get this thing over the line and produce big totals.

Its all snow covered now, an hour ago streets were wet. We have some ground to make up to get to my 9 inch prediction. Im looking for 3 by noon and that should get us to 9. Rates to the west arent that impressive yet so need this afternoon to not start with the usual bumps in the road.

Radar looks like a signature winter storm event event return for these parts

I’d cash out. It could be 105 every day through March after that. Dec 2018 all over again.

Few days ago it was showing a WWB east of the IDL,where did it go..lol

Honestly like where I sit. Looks like some nice returns on my way from the SW

FWIW

Crazy because a track to the bm would almost tend to be frozen even to the coast. Another month or so this would be a snow event for all of us. Eventhough I think the warm air is overdone by a degree or 2.

No words needed where the MJO is today

Looks like a Loudoun County and North and west storm. After last year, I forgot these existed

Truth and Lies for Winter Storms: 1. The Dry Slot Is supposed to fill later- lie.

21.4 was my lowest

Got the radiational cooling going on here. I'm at 25.2, but Hazleton stations are at 28.

Hoping for at least first flakes if not a slushy dusting that gets washed away

I nominate you good sir!

24. Coldest of the season.

We’ve had ideal, and got nothing, we’ll take good enough and role the dice with that.

Someone start a thread!

It looks to me like the 6z GFS came south a bit?

Central Park has recorded its first freeze of the 2025-2026 season. The 1991-2020 normal first date is November 21. The 1961-1990 baseline was November 11. Last winter's first freeze occurred on November 30.