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The upcoming cold is impressive, too bad its dry. Modeling is giving some hints of more active STJ way out in time. Maybe HM's window hits in the very late Jan to Feb 10 th time frame. Tonight Rain likely before 2am, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 34. West wind around 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Saturday A chance of rain and snow before 1pm, then a chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 19. M.L.King Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 29.

It should make everyone feel warm and fuzzy that the one model getting an appreciable storm here on Sunday is the same model that tried to bury us for Friday only to go a thousand miles out to see in 24 hours time. Its such a low probability, but if it did come back to maybe graze us, its very likely to be and east and more so NE type of deal. I don’t think thats unreasonable

That sound fun. I never really considered a rain hike up there. That would be cool in a tropical remnant environment. Like a mountain tropical rainforest hike. Probably a way better chance at that than a blizzard these days lol

Op/details/6z gfs aside… That was kind of a fun run to loop through seeing those massive, sprawling 1040+ highs sandwiched around shortwaves trying to barge through the cold. @WxWatcher007 would get his -35° at SLK under one of those highs.

had to clear all the boats out of the playpen

Several models dumping at least 20". There aren't any mesolows on the models disrupting the band, aka moving it around, so wherever it parks has a real shot at 2 feet. IWX mentions land breeze may cause the band to drift, but not too drastically. They also mention two dominant bands. With my luck, I'll end up in between the two. Snow rates will likely exceed 2" per hour overnight and this will be at least 20:1 ratio stuff, maybe as high as 30:1. Things will get out of hand quickly underneath the main band. High risk, high-reward setup. Edit: Also winds will be gusting 35-45 mph... could make for a real big mess.

My google photos showed me this snow memory from this date in 2019; IIRC it was a fun little storm that dropped a strip that jackpotted DC, but northern areas did poorly. I have memory of like 6" in my area. It came down heavy in the late afternoon on the 13th of January, I think. Don't remember synoptics nor do I have a snow map.

They were all over the Special Marine warning tho...

I know that Knox County is treating the roads as if we are about to get a blizzard! lol! I’ve never seen so much brine for a potential 1/2” snow in my life!

I've also wondered about this. It just seems like a really bad area for snow. Have to keep going to Canaan Valley.

eye balling 2-3 inches here worst is over

Snow chances will start to increase a lot in a week or so. MJO going to 8 again. Just not sure if it'll be more of what we saw in December or something more noteworthy. Hopefully the flow can slow down enough to allow shortwaves to dig and amplify.

Other hobbies?

now they issue a snow squall warning with it exiting the metro. talk about late to the party. inept idiots.

I couldn’t care less. It’s just not likely to get into the 50’s today in hills . It’s not like anyone is outside doing anything on a work day . It’s just the logistics

Wow. You only got down to 38°? Let’s get those forsythia buds swelling.

Yeah it really matters to save all that snow you have

MRX with a statement .

This checks out. Our local Mets in Triangle downplay every storm until it starts snowing (smart) but even they talk about snow droughts and the long one we ended last year as being far from the norm. Acting like Charlotte and Asheville are Columbia South Carolina doesn’t make it correct from a climo standpoint

Looking at the GEFS overnight runs we might have to wait till after the 25th for any region wide snow chances. The 23rd-25th looks more cutterish unfortunately. Long way out and things can change but definitely trended warmer in that time frame.

With clouds it is not getting near 55 today . Even 50 tough

I still have a couple of inches (of glacier) over almost all of my property. But that will be largely gone by tomorrow night. It has made the dog walking much easier

12z hrrr selling nearly 40 inch in nw indiana

Dropping a SWS for a bitching snow squall. If only we had something tailored specifically for this…