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Today’s EPS and CFS are also going to ph 6 mid Jan. BAMwx posted that phase 6 in -AAM during Jan has been very cold in the E US, with the most intense cold in the interior SE (see lower right in image just below), which to me was very counterintuitive. So, I needed to know the answer. Now it’s even more important to know as the move to ph 6 midmonth has more model support. The following are results of my research done on Tue, which looked at GSP, a station in that coldest (pink) area, during La Niña: Niña Year….# phase 6 days…avg anomaly 1975…3…-8 M 1976…13…-9 W-S 1989…3…+8 M 1999…3…+2 M 2000…3…-4 W 2006…6…+3 S 2008…3…+8 S 2009…6…+1 W-M 2011…12…-7 W-S 2012…19…+1 W-S 2017…2…0 W 2018…3…-2 S 2021…8…-1 M-S 2022…4…-9 W 2025…2…-5 W W weak (mainly in or near circle), M mod., S strong 91 total days (big sample) ————— So, 15 cases of ph 6 during Nina Jans: 3 MBN 3 BN 6 NN 1 AN 2 MAN ——————— - These La Nina Jan results weren’t at all what I would have expected for phase 6, one of the 3 mild Jan phases in the SE averaged out over all years: - Though there’s not surprisingly lots of variability, GSP did average 2 BN. Before seeing BAMwx’s post I never would have expected this. However, it should also be noted that BAM’s -6 to -7 for GSP is at the same time significantly too cold. - Only 3 of the 15 Jan cases were AN to MAN: 1989, 2006, and 2008. These were all M to S intensity (intuitive). - So, none of the last 8 were mild as there were 5 NN and 3 BN (2011, 2022, and 2025). These also averaged 2 BN. The weakest 3 averaged a solid cold 6 BN. - Thus if phase 6 continues to look more likely for midmonth, it will be interesting to see whether or not the NN to cold dominance works out in the SE (and E overall by association), especially if the bulk of ph 6 turns out to be anywhere from inside the circle to near/just outside the circle.

Looking at the CFSv2 LR model this morning, it does indeed keep retrograding the 500 ridge into Asia. It retrogrades the eastern trough into the Mountain West....and then it retrogrades yet another ridge into the West and holds it. If that happens, Larry Cosgrove is going to score the coup, and kudos to him for a great seasonal forecast if it does. He has adamantly held that the end of January and early February will hold the worst of winter, and cautioned patience. I think the ridge getting knocked down out west, reforming....wash, rinse, repeat...is the likely pattern beginning on the 12th. One could make a pretty good case that began on Dec 29th. I think at least one of those cycles will have very cold air in the pattern. A lot of decent winters featured that pattern. Let's see if that is how it unfolds. Either way, this winter has been one of wild swings...I fully expect that to continue.

This is why you incorporate the QBO and solar cycle into analogs. I think my progression has been good so far....only blemish is the severe -WPO making December colder than I thought....but moving forward, I was confident in latter January +TNH last fall, and still am now.

As I had mentioned yesterday some models were hinting at some snow showers overnight and we did indeed see some overnight which as many have mentioned recoated drives across the area. Here in East Nantmeal we picked up 0.3" of snow. We continue with well below normal temperatures through Monday but then see a nice warmup with temperatures trending well above normal for much of next week. Overall the next week or so looks dry with maybe a snow shower chance Saturday night.

As I had mentioned yesterday some models were hinting at some snow showers overnight and we did indeed see some overnight which as many have mentioned recoated drives across the area. Here in East Nantmeal we picked up 0.3" of snow (our 8th winter event of the season). We continue with well below normal temperatures through Monday but then see a nice warmup with temperatures trending well above normal for much of next week. Overall the next week or so looks dry with maybe a snow shower chance Saturday night.

I'm pretty confident that any huge PV infiltration would knife down through the center of the country, anyway.

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2007075997565284655?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g This is the tweet. I think we’re seeing all the signs that winter might not return in January. I wish I could be optimistic but nothing looks good on modeling and all the long range indicators are starting to throw red flags. I think a lot of Mets jumped the gun before Christmas

Last season I bailed after that big January threat failed. We has one decent stretch in early Feb and that was it. I felt like March was a lost cause dating back to the fall, and I was absolutely correct. It was.

That overnight snowfall played out similarly here at our site – the underlying snowpack is currently consolidated enough that we picked up 4 inches of snow, and the snowpack depth went up the same amount. We’ve had a lot of continuously settling snowpack over the past couple of months with the types of systems we’ve been seeing, so each round of new snow has typically been compressing the underlying snow. This snow from this recent clipper was fairly dry down here (4 to 6% H2O), so it’s already settled an inch since yesterday.

WB 0Z EURO. Looks like the mini thaw peaks on January 9. Hopefully, we will have something to track by next weekend for the second half of January. (By the way, this is very consistent with what the extended EURO has shown for several weeks. No can kicks here....).

I don't know, ask someone who think it's over-

I think "by January 12th" is aggressive, anyway.

I get that some are irritated, but we need to roll with it like always. We have NO idea what is really going to happen and that's part of the fun. Look at what models showed a few days back huge blocking etc. They recalculated like a crappy Garmin GPS and will again. Into what... stay tuned LOL. Wasn't it somewhere around 2015 where we didn't have any sign of winter until near mid January and then we were off to the races

Never a harbinger, always a curse.

For sure. Very wintry out there now, and has been for the holiday season too. Looks, feels and seems like it should for late December, and now for the very start of January in a lot of places.

Oh boy. Now we’re starting to see Bam have cold feet.

Sub 30" seasonal totals will be tough with 2.5 months worth of nickle dimer chances left. Already at 20" here for the season. Another week or 2 window of opportunity will probably reveal itself before mid March. However N.IL was pretty much ground zero for the 1st window; doubt it happens for the 2nd window.

Im not sure all areas will go green during that period but I'm curious why you view that as better?

Agreed 100 percent. And while we have it where we have it, lets enjoy the wintry appeal that we have in many of our viewing areas right now. There's been more white ground here so far than like the last 8 years

Glad we had a good start! Normally, this is where I feel like the days can get away quick. Warm up next week, then suddenly it’s mid January. Good to be sitting on 20”+ as opposed to 4 or 5”.

At least with the upcoming warm up, all the old snow will melt so when our next storm hits, it won't be new snow on top of ice.

I'd happily settle for a rainstorm at this point.

Another .3" overnight for nice even 10" on the season, we're a snow town now in 2026

Remember the hot start?

I can see why the frustration is there but it really is only January 2. If we were in a strong EL Nino regime then I would probably be in the camp of throwing away the rest of winter, however, I don't see any strong arguments or data that can make one say with a high level of confidence the remainder of winter is cooked. Sure, December could have been better as a region given how cold it was with the constant shot of Arctic airmasses, but what's the correlation to increased snowfall and storms with Arctic airmasses? I would wager not particularly high...those airmasses are usually quite cold and dry and more often than not, any bigger storms precede the Arctic air. We are also just beginning to enter peak climo which I would presume most receive the majority of their seasonal snowfall between mid January and mid February (obviously different the farther north you go). Yeah places finished under climo in December for snow but its not like December is a massive snow month in the climo department. Whatever negative departures a location has from not meeting December snow quota can easily be made up in January. This milder pattern we're about to enter, may not be a bad thing. Let's reshuffle things up a bit and go from there. There is nothing indicating this mild stretch is something that will be prolonged.