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The cold first week in January. There still could be two light snow threats as well this coming week. He had a post saying pretty much there is no cold in sight in January. I disagree, yes we can all agree on week 2.

I agree regarding the TNH+ and NAO. However, at least as far as January is concerned (1980-2025), the NAO was < 0 on 63% of days when the EPO was < 0. Since 2015, that figure was 72%. A larger period beyond January 1-31 is likely involved in the linkage between EPO- and NAO+.

the first one was about 45-60 minutes before the line came through and the second one was after we'd settled back to sleep after the squall, lol. Martinsburg gusted to 43.

December 2025 Avg max: 26.5 -4.2 Mildest: 49, 19th Avg min: 6.8 -6.6 Coldest: -18, 9th Mean: 16.7 -5.3 3rd coldest (#1: '17, #2: '13) Precip: 3.85" -0.98" Wettest: 1.26", 19th Snow: 22.4" +3.0" Biggest: 8.0", 24th Deepest pack: 10" 24, 25 2025 YEAR Avg max: 52.24 -0.35 Hottest: 92, 6/24 and 8/12. Tied for hottest in June, hottest day in August. Avg min: 31.54 +031 Coldest: -19, 2/2 7th year w/o -20 or colder (Also, 3rd year bottoming at -19.) Mean: 41.96 +0.05 (Some illogic, can't find why.) Coldest year since 2019. Precip: 37.22" -11.61" 2nd driest year, only 2001 had less. Wettest day: 1.53" 9/25. 9 of 12 months were BN. Snow (calendar year) 70.0" -18.8" Biggest: 12/24 2025 had perhaps the fewest of standout events of our 27 full years here. No double-digit snows, no 2"+ rains, the fewest days with thunder (5, previous low was 8, average is 15), no especially heavy winds. Ironically, the only real standouts were the hot days in June and August, especially the heat wave of August 11-13, only the 2nd one here - in the coldest year of the most recent 5. The very low precip doesn't fit my idea of "event" - more like watching grass grow. Fortunately, we had no problems with our shallow dug well, though the garden suffered, as my late-June total knee replacement hindered my ability to overcome the lack of rain.

IMO it never made sense with the EPO spike which many of the individual members showed and the GEPS/GEFS had.

Verification:

ouch

GFS with a horrific SE ridge/Cutter run with no end in sight. CMS says what?

My friend is trying to convince me to go. We have not been back up there for snow in like 20 years. The HREF probs show is mostly where you mention though the 12Z high res guidance models today now largely want to focus it more N of there til tomorrow which is a bit of a delay

Question for those in the know: Since urban heat island is a thing - has there been a concerted effort to place sensors specifically in non-urban areas? If not - it seems like there should be. Of course some areas could transition from non-urban to urban over the course of decades, but such an effort/project would presumably account for this - putting sensors in areas that are protected and would never becomes urban (national parks, wildlife refuges, etc.) and/or just remove any sensors that have become urbanized from the data sets. As it is - it seems like threads like this one - "XXX city sees record warmth", are of questionable veracity; to me what would be more meaningful would be "Badlands NP sees record warmth" or the like. (at first I started using Yellowstone as example but then realized it has its own non-urban heat island)

Happens every year.

actualy only 4half days

In Wayland at the brother in laws about an inch here . Heading home now .

Don’t tempt me John…

My .3” of snow came to .02” liquid. Pork roast is in the slow cooker. Time for some football.

As of now, I’m seriously doubting that we see -NAO blocking to go along with the anticipated -EPO/+TNH pattern later this month. +TNH very strongly favors a +NAO/+AO/SE ridge regime as both @40/70 Benchmark and Eric Webb mused. Also, @StormchaserChuck1 found a very strong tendency for a positive NAO when the EPO is negative the last 10 years….

Road trip to upstate NY for some epic LES coming? Could be some prolific totals in the Fulton area.

Acceptable.

CWG January forecast: https://archive.is/ECHhk

Deep winter with pack before we torch in the climatological heart of winter

Jan 6 attempted a return in the operation GFS/12z Not in the same form as before, and in fact the contributing aspects are probably not even born of the same source considering the mangling that's taken place within the guidance cinemas over the last 3 or 4 days,... but, some sort of WAA snows get cooked up there, nonetheless. It's only 5.5 days away. Fire up a thread! ahha

It might just be me but I think some people think mid January means January 7th

I would much rather be in a position where the NAO is transitioning from more negative to less negative or to slightly positive then be in a consistently -NAO regime.

Yup...looks like we have room for maybe another 1-3" type event. In fact, I am shocked the GFS does not have any QPF during the day Tuesday...has the look for hefty snow squalls with thunder/lightning...quite unstable look with a good shortwave rolling through.

Might be but can see how it could drop an inch or two if it ramps a bit