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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    This year is kind of the inverse of that, which is why I think we have a shot for something decent....there is a TON of warmth, but there is more to the west than 1997 and 1982....however, the warm pool is def. getting further east than 2023, so I feel like we will get some periods of Modoki forcing with less MC competition.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I figured there was something missed. Yes. It's not JUST about strength.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Theoretically speaking, if we venture to the land of make believe, and pull off a 3.2 ONI that is just about void of warmth in regions 1.2 and 3, then sure.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Oh, that's in the 2nd part of the post that you didn't highlight. That's why I thought you were only talking about strength. 02-03 was probably the 2nd strongest Modoki. My favorite Winter all time! Yeah it does go hand-in-hand strength and where it's usually based, that's because there are usually much cooler waters further east, much more room to warm in a stable system.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    You aren't getting what I'm saying. We aren't going to get an event that powerful that doesn't leak into the east. Find an example.....I'll give you a lifetime...go. 2009 is the closest, but not to that magnitude.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    If you put your heat in your living room on 80 degrees, the living room may warm to 75 and the kitchen 70. If you put your heat in the living room on 90 degrees, the living room may warm to 85 and the kitchen 70. lol Everyone thinks the kitchen goes to 80 degrees.
  8. WxUSAF
    Spain cannot get the ball in the net eta….until they did!
  9. IrishRob17
    I saw someone on the NE side mention “shot across the bow” and I chuckled. A beauty of a day for sure.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    It doesn't skew things differently. Absolutely not. If Nino 4 was +1.7c, Atlanta might be -3 for the Winter. If Nino 4 is +3.4c, Atlanta may be -6 for the Winter. Everyone thinks it moves around anomalies which isn't true beyond 0.01% general warming things.
  11. John1122
    It's rained .75 here today and some areas near me got 1 to 1.5 inches. Looks like upstream is loaded for another round in a few hours. If they don't die out.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    It absolutely does in a sense because good luck keeping the warmth out of the eastern ENSO region in an event of this magnitude.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, but there is more warmer water further west than that year.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah -PDO is mostly counter-El Nino. Amazing the consistency in -PNA we are still seeing.
  15. IronTy
    SoMD precip confirmed - the GFS will be the one that verifies.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's the position of the N. Pacific low pressure. It happens right off the west coast in east-based Nino, and further west near the PNA region in west-based. Those maps I posted above are historical analog of Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4. I don't think strength of the Nino plays a roll, except being more of the same. Where it's based/dominant does though.
  17. GaWx
    Thanks, Chuck. So, temps are clearly colder with W vs E based. Is some of this because the strongest El Niño winters tend to have warmer 1+2? However, with regard to wintry precip, itself, the SE appears to have done a bit better with C based (3.4 warmest) than W based (4 warmest) if I’m recalling my research correctly.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    If anything, -PDO would make it warmer and drier....that isn't a driver of cold in the NE.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    The only thing worse than a D2 MOD risk is a D3 ENH.
  20. snowfan
    The Os just went into Houston and swept the stros out of the break. Damn. Dont give me hope.
  21. FPizz
    1.82 yesterday
  22. IronTy
    Yeah after the last two years I don't even care if it snows down here this winter , I'm just fine with noreaster after noreaster of 40F and rain (I'll change my tune in December).
  23. Mount Joy Snowman
    Just got off the river with the fam, absolutely perfect day.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Again to reiterate, a Winter east vs west-based El Nino
  25. gravitylover
    It was quite a dump of CP air. It feels great but I dunno about autumnal, although if I had a hoodie with me this morning I might have put it on.
  26. Today
  27. CAPE
    And now it's three quarters to one inch. No idea why they constantly do this knowing the scattered nature of how we get rain in the summer. Tomorrow morning it will be a quarter to a half, or 'tenth of an inch or less except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms', which should always be the default unless a stratiform/widespread general rain in expected.
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