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Certainly has felt like that. This time there seems to be some synoptic differences driving the variance. Stormier solutions seem farther south with the low.

Yeah can’t rule out a couple showers scattered but the heavy stuff stays south

The dry air is relative to the track and placement of the front. The overall heaviest of rain and thunderstorms is south (NJ/LI)...maybe CT coast but I think the llvl warm front is north enough to where we get precip to build inland.

Can we please salvage a beach day this weekend..yuck

What does BN mean? Barnes & Noble?

S coast south and west . Lots of mid level dry air inland

I do think we see a solid precip shield of showers moving through later tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Not saying this hasn't been the case in prior years - but this year seemingly has been significant in terms of distance between CAM solutions even up to the morning of events.

It mixed out a bit, but I don’t think of this as a traditional chamber airmass even though it’s a beautiful day. Dews will be back in the mid 60s there this evening into tomorrow. There’s a larger airmass change tomorrow into Friday in NNE, but the front will be hung up way down there. Next week we may see more of a backbreaker.

82/63, dews were low enough to finishing mowing

NAM 3k which is dry vs RRFS which has a squalline . I wonder which one wins

took care of the yellow jacket nest last night after dark and taking advantage of the lower dews I finished this masterpiece today: l lawn hasn't looked this good since June

Joe Bastardi brings something up that I think merits further study. The contrast in temps between the tropics and Arctic has dropped significantly since 1999 because the Arctic has warmed ~2C while the tropics have warmed significantly less. GW has been most concentrated in the Arctic. “A reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient lowers zonal available potential energy (ZAPE) and surface baroclinicity. Baroclinic instability is the primary energy source for extratropical cyclones (the large-scale mid-latitude storms that form along the jet stream and frontal zones). With less available energy to draw from: Models (including coordinated experiments focused on Arctic sea-ice loss and amplification) generally show fewer individual cyclones each season across the northern mid-latitudes and Arctic. The remaining storms tend to be, on average, somewhat weaker, slower-moving, and longer-lived.” Individual events can still be intense or produce more extreme rainfall because of thermodynamic changes. Because of the distortion of warming, it leads to some things opposite of what is portrayed in the general sense. Your point is that this differential warming can produce effects that run counter to the simple ‘warmer world = more of everything extreme’ narrative, especially for baroclinic storm frequency and intensity. The thought experiment cleanly highlights how the pattern of warming, not just global-mean temperature, controls the dynamical response.”

This is your dew right now . Not a Coc k

Synoptically there is light NW flow at 925 mb over FL still tdy, so that makes such events more likely, but as we saw ydy, the mesoscale details were everything. It all lined up perfectly for 2-3 hr. Law of averages and large numbers say this will happen at times! And this time, it just happened to be at a long-term climate site. Also, when one extreme occurs, another one like it in the short-term is often much more likely. Similar patterns breed similar sensible wx. How about that period Jan-Feb 2015? Probably one of the most spectacular examples for New England, and it was so localized, confined to ern MA/RI and Downeast ME, but it was @CoastalWx "VIOLENTLY RELENTLESS! " It used to be thought heat bursts were rare, but once the NWS and FAA installed ASOS/AWOS in the 90s w/ so many more locations and 1-min obs 24/7, we found they are a lot more common than we thought.

Your brain is beer fried if you think 82/57 isn't COC in mid August.

NAM and Canadian mesos are bullish. Hrrr has a few storms. FV3 says maybe some breeze and clouds?

No Coc anywhere, but cocked

And we never had another hurricane ever again. The end

Sun baked

Some know what the next hour would be. Very very typical down here in the morning until the marine layer retreat. I can see for miles and miles...Men in suits taking Chamber photos for next years calendar. Watching my pool temp drop every day now. The beginning of the end of a fantastic summer. Only 8 90 degree days and a ton of COC days.