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Did it pull an icon or something? As long as h5 looks good we can all take a long shower so it has some moisture to work with.

Regarding the moisture issue: Yeah, that's not going away. The positive tilt of the trough at H7 and H85 ahead (1) of the synoptics getting in line for us is not great for folding the sub-tropical air back up into our area(2). The leading s/w that kicks out from the sub-tropical jet (2) is a kick in the pants.

But if it follows other guidance...watch it be dry at the surface, lol

nice change

Yea, night and day

this somehow produces like 3-6” of snow. how do you even make this up

hell i'll even say 0z euro is better than the 0z GFS at h5

And I’m explaining to you that there was no lack of precip today.

0z Euro h5 looks very similar to 0z GFS

The Bears are this season's Commanders. They'll inevitably get obliterated in the NFCCG at the latest. But I hope fans enjoy the rush while it lasts!

Should snow this run but it’s not gonna bomb.

Euro isnt bad for Eastern areas

Maybe it’s better that it’s not a full blown monster just yet….there’s many days to go, don’t want it getting crazy just yet. Let’s trend it slowly but surely over the next 2-3 days.

Thru 234hrs. Both "threats"

That is how I'd hedge....EURO AI was doing that, too.

0z Euro looks much better than 18z. At hour 99 the trough is SW and is deeper

Euro AI has lost it as well on today's runs, including 0z here. I hope it's wrong but with only the GFS and ICON on board, this is very unlikely to be a big event. Every other model is just some N stream snow showers. I'll be surprised if the Euro Op isn't the same.

Euro AI is still close but not there. Tilts negative, not a bad h5 look, but it isn't really diving into TN and the south like the GFS was, and it's pretty dry with problematic temps.

Trust the Synoptics

Another small step for the 0z GEFS mean

In a relative vorticity framework you get positive vorticity by either curvature (around a low) or by a positive change in wind speed to the right of the vector. Vort "lobes" tend to be produced by the curvature in, or in advance of a low, and the "ribbons" tend to be from areas of high wind shear across a horizontal distance. Look at an H5 wind map, then look at at an H5 Rel. Vort map, then flip them back and forth. You'll see it.

Sounds like this is a good study for ya

It reminded me of some of the Eagles games this year. Dominating first half, and then the offense is completely garbage in the second half and the defense eventually gets tired and loses the game.

Alright euro running, wonder if the dry aughts continue

Last Friday some runs showed us hitting 70 for today.