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Lots of big hits in there.

The clustering of sfc low positions gives better info than median, while median is better for looking at scalar variables like temps/QPF/snowfall amounts. You can see lots of western clustering to the left of the mean low

It’s really just some small tweaks to where the low closes off, kicker, etc and we’re back to an absolute bomb for 95% of us.

Too true

Baby steps.

Yes but you would expect its ensemble 'spread' to consolidate as we get closer as well. So range of ops 'jumping' becomes noise

7h looks saturated. 850 dry. My ignorance but death band should be much farther inland?

Not saying its locked in..but would not shock me if some HiRes spits out big numbers...extreme cold at 850, saturated 850s, plus their fine resolution = a model like the NAM hitting the Powerball for ingredients lol (whether its right or wrong who knows 100% yet)

If the RRFS model run verifies, we riot

For those interested.

I think you will find a stronger vortmax is going to dig south too, It probably would not hurt if we could start the process a bit north and west of where it is now to tilt the trough more negative sooner.

At 10/1. The app that I have been using is showing 20-1 Kuchera. .

Issue here will be winds. If we get snow we’ll also getting 50-60 mph winds probably

You are 100% correct!

Guys, I’m in Pi Planning today…stop distracting me by posting potential stemwinder nor’easters that have no mixing issues inland.

Lean left, left!

Not exactly the models I want in my foxhole

Richmond doesn’t get HECS though so not way those solutions verify.

Gefs were good but 6z was better 12z AIGFS Did trend better

We've been dry for months on end and have had dry conditions all but one summer in the past 5 with severe drought at times. Not sure why you think it'll be any different in April.

The gfs, aigfs and icon trends are. The cmc, uknet ,and euro trends are not.

lol, what a sharp gradient, 8" in harford county, 20" middle eastern shore, and 40" lower eastern short

Gonna name this the Byrce storm. This has you written all over it.

@wncsnowI feel like you'd know this.. Did GFS end up outperforming Euro with our last storm or was it the typical Euro beating up on the GFS?