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Started a thread. What could possibly go wrong?

Where you there for January 1994? Time Series Summary for SUSSEX 1 NW, NJ - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1993-1994 -29 36 2 1960-1961 -25 0 3 1911-1912 -24 3 4 1966-1967 -23 0 5 1980-1981 -22 0 - 1967-1968 -22 2 7 1983-1984 -21 1 8 1947-1948 -20 0 - 1942-1943 -20 0

I would hate to a store manager of a grocery store! oh wait I am a store manager

You and I both know that those are some gaudy percentages at this range. This is usually reserved for upper echelon potential to see this type of signal. Gonna be a fun storm, man. Been a long time since we had one of these. Your area looks incredible for this one too. Let’s bring it home

NBM jumped significantly. Near record snowfall south of DC to RIC.

I remember! We had over a foot of snow. It was a blizzard, winds howling. We are just west of Raleigh. It was warm in the days leading up to it. Forecast was a minimum of any snow. Fishel came on & said well this was missed. The trees looked like white chocolate pretzels.

Well, I remember opening the Jan 2016 storm thread 7 days prior, and we had good vibes. Feeling ok about this one as well. Put all storm related discussion here.

Alright, guys! I'm heading off to PE. Can't talk until 12:00. Bring this 12z suite home for us, everybody! Thank you!

Good lord. Never seen it that high here

miss hearing your signature BOOM

13z NBM Probabilities of 48hr snowfall exceeding 12" Washington: 66% Baltimore: 59% Hagerstown: 50% Fredericksburg: 70% Winchester 58% Charlottesville: 75% Leesburg: 58% Richmond: 75% Roanoke: 70% Lynchburg: 75% Norfolk: 52%

Really concerned about the icing event progged for Central GA/most of SC. I dont recall numbers for QPF and FR amounts like that in my entire time living here (25 years). With the cold and mid level set up currently forecast, it looks to be a literal perfect storm for what could be the most devastating winter event here since probably Mar of 93. Hoping and praying this is sleet with a few upfront inches of snow. That much ice, even half of it shown on some of the recent models will be extremely serious. CAD looks strong with this one, which probably means we stay more in the FR area longer here. Usually it backs north and eastward pretty quickly during these types of events, limitng what we end up with. Not seeing that happen with this one. Seems it extends way farther south and westward than normal.

Absolutely praying for you. .

I miss Matt Moore he was one of the best!

Was out walking the dog this morning thinking about this - I have referenced it before on the board ... This week in 1982 at SLoaf, first time there, half dozen runs or so and bad frost bite each time (turned around and sent into lodge to warm up by the liftie) so unpleasant that I did not ski for another two years 83/84 season. I believe this stretch still remains record cold for the area.

We'll point at models, they'll point at synoptics and everyone will weenie-out

Ok all, let's not bring in what other places are saying. Let's focus on our region please

That is an incredibly bullish NBM output right here. As is, this is probably closer to the 50-70th percentile outcome. The 75-90th percentile is likely 20-25% more on top of that. I’ll be around following today, but I got errands to run later, some of which involves around preparing for this monster. Really like where we stand right now.

Half those amounts in north Ga. would be catastrophic. Too far out to zero in on ice accretion anywhere with this. Ice storms hard to nail down even within 6-12 hours. All depends on temperatures through the column. Surface temps especially during the daytime need to be 28 or lower (personal experience) and heavy rain is hard to accrete. Forecast ice storms can become sleet storms if column temperature profile is not perfect. Even 1/2" of ice can cause BIG problems, 1" in rural areas can be an absolute nightmare.

You don’t say? Of course we are looking at Synoptics. In any case, we know how these things play out in the days before. I prefer where we sit way more than them.

Lowest December extent on record just below 2016. https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/ringing-new-year-warm-arctic Arctic sea ice extent for December averaged 11.42 million square kilometers (4.41 million square miles), the lowest extent in the satellite record for the month (Figure 1a). This comes on the heels of the third lowest extent for the month in November 2024 (Figure 1b). The December extent was 40,000 square kilometers (15,000 square miles) below the previous record low for the month set in 2016, and 1.42 million square kilometers (548,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average. Including 2024, the downward linear trend in Arctic sea ice extent for December is 44,000 square kilometers (17,000 square miles) per year, or 3.4 percent per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. Based on the linear trend, since 1979, December has lost 1.98 million square kilometers (764,000 square miles) of sea ice, which is equivalent to three times the size of Texas.

Sorry to hear this, will definitely be praying

Yea, mine was updated too, on the high end mine would be just over 2', I think the record for Nashville all time storm system is like 17.7" in March of 1880 something that is how rare this is

14.7" so far at WXW1 @The 4 Seasons I won't say where WXW2 is at...

Thanks for the post. As some of you are aware, MOGREPS-G is the global ensemble system run by the UK Met Office. A quick check shows that it is run every 6 hours for 7 days and has 18 members. The snow map mean is an average of 36 members (the last two cycles). To increase dispersion, additive inflation is used, i.e., flow-dependent perturbations, with a structure similar to what has been observed in the past, are added to the members as they are running. Additive inflation is one of the techniques being used to add diversity to ensemble results.