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Better sign to me that the EPS mean seems to be more of a hit vs the Op

Differences between 6Z Euro-AI and 12Z Euro-AI were very subtle. If you look at 12Z, the backside energy isn't getting phased into the storm as quickly. At 6Z, that energy was almost immediately getting pulled into the mix. I think that has to do with spacing between the waves and the elongation of the lobe itself. If it is more stretched, it is closer to the backside energy and more likely to phase the two. A more condensed lobe separates and moves too far east. Ridge position looks nearly identical to me.

I have records on the models that go back a week. This is not nowcasting day of event. 18z last Tuesday 1-20 found the GFS giving Augusta 3.1". 18z 1-20 Euro gave Augusta 13.2"

This setup feels a little similar too just more coastal development.

The several snow melting urination breaks slowed things up a wee bit!!!

If that were to validate, I'd be getting another 0.22" LE and probably another 3-5", eclipsing Jan 27-28, 2015 with a mere 0.88" LE compared to 2.17" LE from the 20" blizzard eleven years ago. (Another 0.05-0.10" is more likely IMO.)

Started snowing again around noon and we've picked up 1.0" of new accumulation. This brings the event total to 17.3" which now surpasses January 6-7, 2024 (16.9") as my biggest event since moving to this location in 2022. Keep it coming!

Imagine it a week from now.

Yeah when the Ukie & Ai came out I had a feeling this would happen. Not throwing in the towel yet, if that bowling ball is farther N in latitude it still would work. The “what could have beens” are the hardest part of this hobby lol. Just a small change turned the euro from the Blizzard of 26 to OTS .

HRRR looks like a little energy dials up and gives us a bit more.

I'm at 22.5 with a brisk NE wind It's rough out. I went for a walk and when i got back to the house i was snow blind...brutal

Just checked the euro AI models, they've been windshield wipering the past 3-4 runs. I think the models will need at least a couple of days to get a better handle on this. It may not happen in the next run.

To be fair, i'd rather this one start cutting west a little bit

Just a thought, and although I’m not superstitious, but jokes about Uccellini may bring bad karma. I mean, why risk it?

Here's AIFS verbatim. Probably add 50% to the totals to account for extremely good ratios.

Man you walk slow

The storm almost becomes warm core secluded with intense CAA/N winds on the western side of the system. Plus when it becomes vertically stacked, it occludes and you lose that mid-level WAA. Such an intense system would have an intense thermal contrast and there'd be a CCB/fronto band on the western side that helps to cool the column as well.

Gonna do a temp breakdown along with confirmation for my HMP Weather Central location 5pm-25 7pm-20 9pm-17 11pn-14 1am 11 Overnight low-6

I'm expecting the fam up north to get another dumping while we get nothing so I'll be pleasantly surprised if anything happens.

WB 12Z EPS compared to 0Z; east shift but we have time to reek back in.

This presentation tells the story a little better than that other one they had

It’s so lol

Its a miss to the east.

Any AI models posted? For 12z -maybe I missed it but I'm reading through and I don't see anything about AI models

24h QPF on ensembles....the total would actually be a bit more though since the timing isn't the same on all the members