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Yes please

Let’s wait for the big leagues

I'm pretty confident about Saturday... I think Sunday/Monday is up in the air for my area... leaning nothing much

ICON is a whiff for Sunday. Came a bit west from where it was, but still a whiff. Let's see what the other models have to say. At some point, I don't think they can keep showing a whiff if this thing is real, we're 48 hours left. I'd hate to be the NWS with this one.

Just looked at 0z/6z models for second half of the week and holy hell what a disparity. I will say though and I think I mentioned this the other night...that is one powerful Arctic front slated to drop South and I would find it hard pressed not to see at least one major winter weather event impact a large geographical area. I think the biggest question is going to be the timing...does this happen during the second half of the week (similar to the 6z GFS) or does this get pushed back say 2-3-4 days? I would definitely watch anywhere from the mid-South into the Northeast.

6z GFS no squashy.

I have been, and it does not

Maybe if the Gfs could pump out multiple runs in a row showing similar results, it could be believed. The run-to-run inconsistencies are abhorrent. And in case you're wondering where I got that word, my wife has been using it a lot lately.

This could take some time to make it to the northeast as we slowly scour out the cold air and also risk CAD setups. I’m eyeing early Feb for the warmup here.

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That is cool .

Many spooked by the NAM, and jaded by the recent years. I get it, but it holds little wait until we see the others start doing the same.

Rgem has an inch or two tomorrow

Not sure if you've skied there but if the snow cooperates that should be an awesome event. Great hill.

Right with you man. Its looking that way.

These events have been poo poo as always modeled and then try to get favorable…..but honestly they never looked good.

I remember being around 12 years old and being upset because I just assumed I would be growing out of this odd obsession with snow. I loved it so much and thought it was just a childhood thing. I remember creeping down the hallway at night to the laundry room so I could flip on the flood lights and see if it was snowing. I had a 4x8 map of the Atlantic on my wall where I would track tropical systems with dry erase markers. Now at 48 years old I am still up at all hours to watch the snowfall. Little did I know that the obsession would just continue to grow. Gardening is another hobby/obsession of mine. I would bet that most in here love hobbies or have interests that can really never be perfected. There is always something new to learn, always something that throws a wrench in the works but that 18" of cold powder or that bountiful harvest makes it worth it. I am thankful for this forum and the continued education I receive in here from all of the red taggers and other knowledgeable folks. Too many to mention and would probably leave someone out. This is a great place to feed my addiction and I appreciate it!

Really feels like no one knows what will happen with regards to winter storms here until we are 24 hours out or less. First it was we weren't going to have enough precip and temps weren't an issue to now temps are going to be too warm. The GFS and NAM have been all over the place. It's sad that the NAM goes from 6 inches here to nothing in one run just 48 hours out. They need to figure out something with these models because it seems the algorithms they use now don't match our climate data or something anymore because they shouldn't be that bad. It feels like the Euro is the only one that is worth looking at to see if there is going to be a chance of snow and then maybe the short range models like the HRRR inside 24 hours for totals.

that was classic remember that like it was yesterday

reggie?

oh must be the 06z gfs fantasy. m'yeah i'd table that whole thing actually. i prefer when in times of unusually high uncertainty to avoid the consensus passively denying CC is fucking everything up and making it be that way ... by relying on index modes and modalities. they like the 28th - ground hog day -ish. there's some signal there re the this 24/25th but not as much, so that's why i table for now.

It was 13° this morning when I left my house at 5:15. I’m not sure if it went any lower or not. The clouds moved in so it may not have. We’re on the way to Banff and Lake Louise to ski and board this weekend. Currently in Chicago, where there’s probably 1-1.5in on the ground and the unused roads and runways are covered here. Anyways, I’ll be pulling for everyone to score tonight!

Rediscovered a neat site when going through our links to see if I could find the site that shows how aircraft observations differed from model initialization conditions. I'm going to keep looking for that, but in the meantime, check the meridional flow into AK: (this is a precipitable water layer) Link: https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=MIMICTPW2.100&center=11.178401873711785,-157.14843750000003&zoom=2&width=1316&height=780&basemap=bluemarble&labels=line&view=leaflet&timeproduct=MIMICTPW2&timespan=-24t&animationspeed=100&animate=true A little bit of a learning curve to use, but it has a lot of views of the earth and atmosphere.

I don't know folks. The 12Z 3km NAM sure is keying in on the Balsams and Cataloochee Mountains overnight. That model suggests 6 to 8 inches around here. Cut the totals in half and it's still 3 to 4 inches.