All Activity

This is why KU s are rare.

I love his page. He's like "here's the gfs run, it's garbage and not correct" leaving the soccer moms scratching their heads and unsure if they should share it.

Sadly I believe this is the outcome:

Here’s the problem in my eyes, and this is completely serious. The aggregate is not good. When you take every piece of guidance, ensemble, etc? They average out to a miss. You also can’t really afford a compromise. A compromise of the euro and gfs solutions is a miss. You’re essentially hedging that every model is entirely wrong with the major players for the system. Because even models and ensembles with a hit are mostly confined to Se New England. Given all the information, I’d put the odds of a region wide hit at like 5% and a plowable SE graze at like 15%

Ugh, really can’t help but think we’re so close looking more at the euro… higher heights behind to support a stronger trailing wave, which is centered further W and stronger, and the heights ahead did not get worse and really in the large scale maybe got a bit better, but for our neighborhood the leading wave blunts them.

Some of the upper atmosphere stuff of the other models including the euro are starting to come around probably not to that extreme but maybe it'll be something in between.

Edited my post more. I’ve said it before…I think of the systems and their “energy” as bodies in spacetime…the more potent or massive they are the more they bend the spacetime. Small bodies have less pull on massive bodies but can still affect their trajectory if they’re close enough.

This. You really want to see surface temperatures more like 28-29 versus 31-32 to start having concerns for ice accretion and anything of subsidence outside of causing slick spots on untreated surfaces.

Couple models were showing that yesterday. Rain to start before the transfer to the coast. ICON being one of them.

But he said how unreliable it is.

Right, it would be nice though to see a more consolidated SW that doesn’t have to rely on that

It can’t get much worse so thank goodness. Hopefully will make tracking next year little less of a headache.

Its a model, not an oracle. I see it both ways, Euro is a good weather model, but if one setup/type of storm gives me pause with Euro here - its these. I'm still waiting on my 40 inches the Euro promised me in January 2015.

Last night when the AI euro shifted west I thought it was a good sign that the other western guidance wasn't complete bs. Still, it would add confidence if the Euro Op showed something closer to the GFS or the CMC. If I'm not mistaken the AI euro is better past 5 days but they get fairly close in scoring within 5. @donsutherland1 probably has better data on that.

Mud season is in full effect.

JI posted the 6z GFS to his FB followers.

How does the latest SPIRE look?

Happens in a lot of systems I mean it’s just different shortwave interactions…some tend to fuji/rotate around each other, sometimes it’s a kicker, sometimes it’s a phase which initially usually starts as fujiwara.

Once again the GFS is on it's own. I don't believe it.

Great news

.

Anytime you are relying on Fuji to kick it north… good luck