All Activity

Worst night of sleep in a long time from massive lightening and thunder all night-one cell after another but held onto power

Odd, it seemed to have backed west

A little warmer this am both temp and dews, down to 64F

best in the game imo

The models' overnight forecast was awful. There is no big MCS rolling through sw MN and far northern IA. Instead, it's just an area of scattered meh convection farther south in Iowa.

free warrywarren

The NAM seems to insist that the big activity later will stay back in SPC's outlooked area and even more more S or even SW. The HRRR differs in that it spawns activity in addition to that stuff and sweeps it through later on. I actually can easily see a scenario where the HRRR is right - depends on if the stuff that forms can cold pool and such (similar to yesterday). Let's go from a 5% to a moderate

Tropical!! Man, you are killing it.

Im curious to see how we clear out this morning after the rains. At least its coming through early. Ohio and Indiana already are popping.

And going by the SPC outlook - we are PRIMED for an SPC "catch up" day - all kidding. But days like today CAN surprise.

The 3km NAM skunks us. The HRRR is more robust.

Looking a miss se imby, can't win em all and glad to spread the wealth

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 338 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058-120745- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union- Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill- 338 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms, some with locally heavy rainfall of over one inch are possible today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Another few rounds of thunderstorms with locally heavy rain are possible early Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. $$ Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 338 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 PAZ017>019-024>028-034>036-056-057-059-063>066-120745- Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 338 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms with strong to severe wind gusts and locally heavy rain are possible today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Heavy rain is also possible on Wednesday from another round or two of thunderstorms early in the morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. $$

This has been fascinating to see over the last month in the movement of the warm anomalies in the north pacific. Also I believe I remember seeing bluewave point this out before but you can see the warming of the waters ahead of Dolphin.

Rain and thunder woke me up! Another bust of the short range models. .16 so far and still raining hard.

1.34” yesterday Gone fishing. Hoping to not get wet.

Another item the DMV should be aware of: More rain may impact the DC Region on Tuesday afternoon dropping even more water on already saturated ground! This is a truly Jebman type scenario! I LOVE floods and rising water! That's why I spend hours studying and even worshiping the iconic Ft Myers Inundation video on Sep 28, 2022 of the Lani Kai Island Resort. For four fun filled hours, Estero Blvd became a wonderfully fun enjoyable marine channel! That region got smashed by the eyewall which blew fifteen feet of Gulf waters over extremely shallow bathymetry onto the Lani Kai Resort where two storm chasers affixed a camera which recorded the entire spectacle, which I absolutely love to admire every chance I get! I love rising waters, I adore flooding, which is one massive reason I love severe excessive Ninos, because they bring torrential rains to the South and East. 1996-1997 was a fun fest. I was out jebwalking in it, and revelling in rain storm after rain storm after rain storm after rain storm!

Tug is going to get buried alive in snow. Some of that epic Nino moisture may manage to get up there and it will be all snow there and tons of it! You better get ten Jebman Shovels and five top-shelf Snow blowers!

I'll be staying up on the Tug Hill in big snow country all winter. Let's hope it's wild up there this winter. I'm looking forward to some insane Jebwalks. I'm starting to see the flickering of lightning in the distance. It's coming!

It's not going to fall apart. It will pad your totals from earlier today. ALEET ALEET DMV REGION! THE RECORD EL NINO IS ALREADY RAVAGING THE MID ATLANTIC! CHECK OUT YOUR FAVORITE RADARS RIGHT NOW! GET YOUR RAIN CATCHING CONTAINERS OUT THERE! NO SLANT STICKING, NOW! This fall and winter, the DC Area will NOT be lame and boring no more. It will be rain after rain after rain after rain. I think your region could see 200 inches of rain by March 2027. A record east-based Nino has got Washington DC written all over it! This is a 6C Nino! It's going to roid up that STJ and it will show NO MERCY! BOTH Gulf of Mexico and Pacific moisture will get involved! At times, these moisture feeds will originate in the tropical Pacific! Both the Mid Atlantic and the Southeastern States will get drowned alive throughout the low sun season with absolutely NO MERCY at all! It starts NOW, and I am cheering this on with all my rain weenie heart! Even though Texas will be completely missed this time around (primarily because this particular Nino Event is so east-based) There is really no reason why I should not be happily cheering this event on over the Southeastern and Mid Atlantic States through July 2027! There is nothing better on earth, than rising water provoked by excessive rains on supersaturated ground!

Lol I just came to say this. I wonder if that wall of water will fall apart as it enters the lame and boring zone that is the DC area. If not. It's going to be a wet morning. Jebwalk time in a few hours.

ALEET ALEET MID ATLANTIC!! RECORD EL NINO STRIKES AGAIN AT 334AM VIRGINIA TIME! MORE STORMS ABOUT TO SMASH RIGHT INTO THE DMV IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT! Check out your radars right now! Torrential rains are incoming! Record EL NINO isn't on the way! For the DMV, it's already here!! And I am frackin' JEALOUS right now! My lawn is brown and crackly, and the El Nino is gonna miss Texas!