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UKIE is mainly snow but has an odd random dry slot over the city at 7 PM.

Yeah, I've saw Winter's like this one so far before. Dumped North , South, West and East of us while we got warm nosed, dry slotted , left over Scraps , Upslope dustings and managed just 6-8 inches for the Season. Some early/mid 70's and late 80's early 90's Winter's come to Mind.

Luckily the bust potential for us isn’t anything crazy. 0-3”. Firmly in our duster wheelhouse. .

GFS AI gets the 540 line pretty far inland.

In the 1993 Superstorm we were at a college speech and debate tournament at Seton Hall U. in New Jersey. No one could make it to campus so we had the whole tournament in a hotel and gave away bars of hotel soap as trophies.I I believe it was about 15" of snow with 2" of ice on top of it. I had to borrow a snow shovel from the hotel to chip our 14 passenger van out of the ice in the parking lot - I quickly broke the shovel and chiseled it out with the wooden handle.

Little rock warning leaves open the possibility of some sleet contamination for northern arkansas. Not sure its going to be a big deal, but definitely something to watch as we get closer.

are you in 513-land? we need more cincy posters on here

Changes still don’t end up doing much at the surface. Just amps too much. Very similar track.

I don't have Kuchera maps but widespread 10-15" - dc sorta gets holed somehow but it's fine.

ukie is juicy

The H7 flow tries to back a little toward the end, but it seems like there isn’t a lot there right now to create anything more than a brief 850 and lower spin up. The trough axis is still over MI midday Monday. That sorta keeps some mid level fluffies continuing through the day until the upper system passes, but it all seems too disjointed to me right now for any kind of deeper system potentially developing (although some runs did try to go crazy once in the GOM). But even something more shallow could try to get the conveyors going and enhance the rates in parts of SNE. But I agree…we’ve seen big changes at this time out before.

Good stuff @wxmvpete

Pounding snow at DCA at 18z Sunday on 12z UKIE

I have to imagine with the amount of moisture this will be throwing down there might be some thundersnow? I haven't seen any since the 09' storm

I remember that storm well since it was my senior year of HS and we got an entire week off of school or close to it. Just concrete glaciers of sleet. It was really unlike anything I can remember around here.

Ukie was already pretty damn good

Yeah, Monday morning is gonna be pretty bad. Hopefully the cold air in the wind will help dry some of it up, but it’s not gonna get all of it. .

Read this morning the UKIE got an upgrade yesterday and in terms of skill scores it is 2nd. to EURO.

Flips the sleet lever a little earlier anyway. Still should be a fine run.

Agree I'm seeing the range of possibilities maybe being 6-18 inches in this storm. The stakes aren't that high, It's not a nothing or 2 feet scenario here like if we were truly on a rain/snow line or there was a monster with an OTS threat.

Luckily, this type of setup doesn't really give us a dry slot issue, so that's good news.

I've been using that storm as a guide here but displaced 75 miles south or so...very similar but the thermal boundary is a little further south this time.

I wouldn't even venture a guess except the farther south the primary transfers to the coast the more snow here - finer details need to be worked out during the storm