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  2. Wxtrix
    catastrophic flooding in central WV.
  3. GaWx

    TS Bertha

    GaWx replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters

    0Z UKMET: similar to 12Z with a TS passing just S of Galveston at hour 45 heading W with a 999 mb 44 knot winds then with most of the rain in the S quadrant; the remnant inland low then moves SW TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.2N 87.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 22.07.2026 0 29.2N 87.5W 999 42 1200UTC 22.07.2026 12 29.3N 88.3W 998 37 0000UTC 23.07.2026 24 28.5N 90.4W 997 40 1200UTC 23.07.2026 36 28.8N 92.7W 998 44 0000UTC 24.07.2026 48 29.0N 95.9W 1002 31 1200UTC 24.07.2026 60 27.6N 99.2W 1006 26 0000UTC 25.07.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING
  4. vortex95
    I am not versed in the exact physics of the processes, but I can say this. "Fat" CAPE on a sounding plot is not the same as "skinny" CAPE. "Fat" CAPE promotes more rapid updraft acceleration (image 1), and "skinny" CAPE promotes less rapid updraft acceleration (image 2). If you want svr wx, "fat" CAPE is more conducive to produce it. "Skinny" CAPE is better for heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential.
  5. Terrapinwx started following 2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
  6. Today
  7. Yardstickgozinya
    The great Chuck Chodes wouldn't have screwed it up this bad. Speaking of the king, he had a term for this kind of storm behavior. I believe he called it circle jerking the Commonwealth, but I could be mistaken.
  8. WEATHER53
    Some of the details of the upward column is like two hoses but of different sizes so the flows are different?
  9. snowman19
    +AAM as far as the eye can see In other news, +IOD forecasts continue to go up….
  10. Mrs.J
    Getting some quality thunder and lightning over here.House shakers.
  11. vortex95
    Are these things ever going to end today? TORs issued this late in the evening for an approaching cold front are not common these parts, but we are dealing w/ a rather strong 500 trof for summer and a decent 250 speed max in the area. And that's not something borderline either! Small but quite intense mesocyclone.
  12. midatlanticweather
    Man, that warned cell in West central VA
  13. AlexD1990
    Tornado warning wicomico county
  14. steve392
    https://www.instagram.com/reel/DbFAX4RuIus/?igsh=eDZxcTJwNmdmaG8x
  15. vortex95
    It not easy b/c it depends on the CAPE distribution in the vertical column. In other words, you can't apply one updraft value at all levels of the atmosphere where there is CAPE b/c the amount of CAPE can vary a lot depending on the level you are at. Total CAPE does not necessarily tell the entire story as to full updraft potential. Yes, generally more the CAPE the better, but it does not always mean the same type of svr wx or even things like lightning frequency or most efficient rainfall rates. And CAPE (hence updraft potential) is almost never realized fully by a storm, b/c of 1) dry air entrainment and 2) precip loading. And it goes one step further. Updraft strength is also dependent on pressure perturbations induced by a mesocyclone. For instance, mesocyclones are typically strongest at mid-levels. So you actually have lowest pressure here. This results in dynamic uplift b/c of the pressure deficit aloft. Now, this is superimposed on CAPE that is present. A mesocyclone present can effectively double the updraft strength that would exist just from CAPE alone, which is why supercell updrafts are so intense. More CAPE down at low-levels is better for tornadogenesis b/c you increase updraft acceleration potential where it matters most (stretching of a vortex). That's why we look at how much CAPE exists 0-3 km for one ingredient for tornado potential. I'm just scratching the sfc here, but you get the idea. It's hard to set nice, neat values in a given atmosphere due to so many factors.
  16. BlizzardNole
    A stunning 1.3 which is more than the whole month of July before this! It's also the most rain at one time since I moved to the southern MD desert. We'll need more in the next couple weeks to avoid a seventh straight below normal month.
  17. Picard
    Cape May only had 0.71" for the entire month before today. There up to 2.83" for today, including 1.89" for the past hour and the radar is still training over that area. Amazing how you can get a lot of it back within a short time frame.
  18. WEATHER53
    That’s the actual cold front?
  19. steve392
    Wife said it was the worst rain she's driven in before. Checked the guage, got 1.5" if rain today.
  20. WEATHER53
    And many wailed over and over all afternoon what a bust this all was . Large area of 1-3” and by tomorrow there will be tornados confirmation for sure.
  21. SnowtoRain
    3.13" still raining, 8.39" for the month. July 2025 was 7.47", looks like 2018 is my record for July at 10.31", followed by July 2023 at 10.12". July historically has consistently been a very wet month.
  22. vortex95
    Wikipedia, believe it or not, has good objective wx definitions, and then you can look at all it references at the bottom, and go from there.
  23. high risk
    HRRR wants to bring another line through the area in a few hours. Verbatim, it's mainly for areas south of DC, but there are certainly cells further north in eastern WV than modeled.
  24. winterwx21
    Only 0.13" here. But the ground is still moist from Saturday's big rains, so it's not a big deal that we mostly missed today.
  25. vortex95
    One way of thinking of it is as an "integrated lifted index." If you know what lifted index is, CAPE is just a more advanced version of it, quantifying instability better in the atmosphere.
  26. WEATHER53
    Is there a way to calculate how many mph thise strong vs weak updrafts are moving at,?
  27. Carvers Gap
    Or winter is just gonna be that warm! LOL. But yeah, i need some seriously lower humidity, Jeff. I am soaked every morning after my run. Just looks like someone took a 5 gallon bucket, and poured over my head. Same deal after mowing. Tags are now spring and summer - you all have high standards for thread tags! If it was Montana, I might leave snow. They started the month out w/ winter storm warnings in SW Montana! Fortunately, the west is getting some much needed monsoonal rains in a few areas. I saw that Mammoth had rain this past week. Not unheard of, but it was plentiful. Portions of MT had flood warnings last week which is kind of nuts out there during the summer. Storms kind of fizzled out in NE TN this evening - so far. I don't mind that. Storms IMBY seem to find a way to get pretty bad on NW flow t-storms during July.....just not NW flow snow during January. But yo....send me some crisp air masses. Central Florida can keep this humidity. It's theirs, and they can have it back!
  28. CAPE
    You are gonna break 3" there.
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