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Chris Martz@ChrisMartzWX ·7h Folks, I don’t hype anything. But what’s coming down the pike this week is REAL DEAL cold. After our fancy winter storm exits, blob after blob of Arctic air associated with the tropospheric polar vortex will rotate through the Lower 48. Subzero wind chills will reach the Gulf Coast. Single digit temperatures can be expected in northern Louisiana and Mississippi on both Monday and Tuesday mornings. Washington, D.C. may not get above freezing for the next 7-10 days. For perspective, the last time D.C. spent a week in subfreezing temperatures was from December 16 to 25, 1989 (10 days). That was 36 years ago. It has happened only 17 times since 1872, and only two of those stretches have been in the last 85 years. Bundle up, kiddos.

These initial warm air advection regimens usually come in early and that should help before the real warm surge off the upper level low tracking to our west. We will thump and thump good but totals will really come down to how we perform in 6-8 hours. .

8" for Kevin and 18" for you? Yikes.

I know lol, but I was clear across the lake. Way too far away. I don’t think my car exhaust was responsible either. Like you said before when talking about what to look for, it was like a very fine cloud over the lake and at home. You couldn’t see it on camera without zoom. I’ll figure out how to appropriately document it someday but appreciate you being willing to take a look and ask questions.

It’s fine on top of our 12.3 of snow. Pack retention. Lol!

My work was cancelled Monday, they actually turned it into a furlowed day. I joked saying watch us get nothing. But obviously the sleet and ice will make a dangerous situation.

It’s a prototype for the Nam of course it’s gonna be like the NAM…. 0 other high res look like thet

This storm is gonna overperform Source: my ass

This makes the fact we are talking sleet and zr honestly quite infuriating

23.5°/5.8°

I'd look to maybe N KY, the colder models have places like just south of Louisville with significant snow but the NAM keeps it in OH/IN mainly.

Yea sleet into central PA and no strong secondary is basically writing on the wall for anyone I80 or south. Again though the thump could save everyone.

i feel like the sleet line will fight off with snow line around maybe a few miles north of Tom's River, NJ

Let 12z play out.

Nobody look at the rrfs. Its worse than the nam

Wow, I can't see them opening Sunday night. Monday however will be a definite powder day.

If I spent so many hours this past week in here instead of touching grass just for the NAMs output to be correct, idk if I will ever recover

both of these will end up wrong, go with the middle

Got un-nam'd this morning! Less than an inch qpf in the Northern Neck with a dry slot. Hahaha... Hopefully those models will bust but it's a huge red flag.

Rufus looking like it’s pushing sleet further north too

Who are you and what have you done to our TFlizzy?

12z RRFS (new / replace NAM) Snow by 3/4AM Snow through 2PM before mixing with sleet

Yes. Seeing a lot of folks on WxTwitter in Nashville surprised at how much snow if falling there.

Yeah, exactly. I’ll be checking surface obs compared to radar west of us.