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SREF is a garbage model, but a noticable bump Northeast in CAPE at 15z and overall trend, so could see NAM show a little better overlap of instability and shear north. Still going to be a Nowcast tomorrow morning to see how fast the morning storms clear out.

Maybe can score a short “chase” again.

RIP king james

We are still in a dry pattern

System is trending south. Looks like piedmont areas get little to nothing once again. We are hanging on by a thread here in the foothills thanks to recent rain but the water table is still quite low.

Rensselaer would be a good spot to sit and wait IMO

I wanted to make sure that you saw this: (same cell you were watching in York County) https://www.wgal.com/article/pa-ef-1-tornado-confirmed-lancaster-county-nws/71603879

Drive 12 hours in any direction on land and you're still 90 or better

Is that the MD heights trail? If so, did you park on the Va side and have to schlep over to the trailhead? I used to be able to park on the Md side in little nooks when I had my Jeep, but last time I went they had that general area closed off for parking.

The AFD for Chicago is pretty ominous for tomorrow: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOT&issuedby=LOT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

12z CIPS guidance is a bit more enthusiastic. One analog that has been persistently showing up in some of the domains on CIPS is 6/21/21

That was a different (I believe 4 hour) product than the 24-hour aggregate being shared widely.

It's a damn shame the Big Boy steam engine isn't coming back west through Harpers Ferry. That would've been an EPIC shot coming out of the tunnel and going over the Potomac.

Thursday looks like clouds and limited CAPE. But wind fields are impressive. Lets enjoy wasted kinematics.

Screwed up earlier...I think I said uncapped Thursday but in fact, we may end up capped given how warm it is aloft. Best chance for anything during the afternoon may be the northern Hudson Valley actually into NNE where the forcing will be stronger and mlvl temps a bit cooler

Lol

Stormnet looks thoroughly less enthuastic about tornado chances than it did yesterday, with the highest being in central-ish Indiana, not sure what it's using to model but that's a strange thing to see.

only 71 here. nice day

History has shown (at least to me living in EMA) that depending on a warm front to break through and clear us out to set us up later is a lot to ask. I can’t even count the times we had solid overcast while I’m desperately wishing the clouds to break and the sun to shine while NYC and the region get pounded..I acknowledge I’m admittedly not exactly in a severe hot bed where I live but that’s been the scenario 8 out of 10 times here.

Our HS is tonight-couldn't be better. (need this for next yr when mine graduate!)

Gorgeous day out again! My kids graduation shoulda been outside.

June 16 1992: A total of 27 tornadoes touch down across Minnesota, the second most in Minnesota history. The communities of Chandler, Lake Wilson, Clarkfield and Cokato are badly damaged. 80 million dollars worth of damage would occur, and Presidential disaster declarations would be made for many counties. 1989: Frost develops across Minnesota with crops destroyed on high ground in southeast Minnesota. Preston got down to 32. For Tuesday, June 16, 2026 1806 - A total eclipse of the sun was viewed from southern California to Massachusetts. (David Ludlum) 1917 - The temperature soared to 124 degrees at Mecca climaxing the most destructive heat wave of record in California history. (David Ludlum) 1944 - A tornado in Sioux City, IA, traveled an odd course. It spun in one place for about twenty minutes, made a U-turn, traveled southeast for about three miles, then traveled south, east, north, and finally east again. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in the Upper Midwest, reaching 104 degrees at Lincoln, NE. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 96 mph at Valley City, ND, and baseball size hail near Red Oak, IA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - After a brief respite, hot weather returned to the Northern High Plains Region. Late night thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Polson and north of Lake Seeley. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Daytime thunderstorms produced severe weather from northern Florida to the Middle Atlantic Coast. The thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes, and there were 138 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 87 mph caused twenty million dollars damage at Columbia SC. Strong thunderstorm winds killed one person at McLeansville NC. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 16 Tue National Fudge Day 16 Tue Islamic New Year 16 Tue Bloomsday 16 Tue International Day of the African Child 16 Tue Arborist Appreciation Day 16 Tue International Day of Family Remittances 16 Tue International WaterFall Day 16 Tue World Sea Turtle Day 16 Tue Fresh Veggies Day 16 Tue Muharram

Oh no the bermuda triangle death algae