All Activity

I loved it, just got tired of switching between the two. Just post here, most of us know to skip and weed out the turds in the punchbowl.

yup another 40 inch run here

We do but I don't live in Southern Connecticut. I'm around the Farmington line so I guess we'll see what happens. Trust me, I want to get the accumulation that you are hoping for. Hopefully things will change tomorrow as far as Wednesday goes and then we'll see what happens for Friday. I'm really eyeing this one for Sunday into Monday. I have a really good feeling about this one

I am glad I am mostly done with tracking this winter. Because the extended thread has become a cluster fuck filled with PA posters.

Happy hour run hittin the sauce a little early

AI GFS still cuts through CT lol

Tomorrow will see highs reach the middle 40s. Some rain showers or a period of rain is likely on Wednesday into perhaps early Thursday as a system streaks rapidly from Minnesota across central New York State and into New England. Parts of central New York State and southern/central New England, including Boston, could see some accumulating snow. Additional precipitation could arrive Friday or Saturday. Highs will likely reach the 40s through Saturday. A few ensemble members (20% EPS members at 2/16 12z with 6" or more snow) and occasional operational runs (2/16 6z GFS and 12z Icon) have continued to suggest the potential for a significant or major snowstorm some time in the February 21-24 timeframe. More evidence in the form of model consensus and support from a large number of individual ensemble members will be needed before there can be reasonable confidence in such a solution. For now, one is dealing with a low probability but high-impact scenario. An AO-/PNA- pattern, which is forecast for the timeframe involved, has seen a number of significant or major snowstorms during the second half of February. Since 1950, New York City has seen four 6" or above snowstorms during such patterns, including the 1979 President's Day blizzard (12.7") and the February 25-26, 2010 snowstorm (20.9"). In contrast, during AO+/PNA- patterns, New York City has seen just one 6" or above snowstorm. Details should start to become clearer by Wednesday or Thursday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter. The SOI was +10.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.799 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8 below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

18z gfs gone wild in the extended too

Well we live in different areas

Kev... Lol ... That's pretty lofty for both days. I'm not even sure we're going to have enough snow to accumulate Wednesday night. Looks more like a rain to a mix. Unless the line comes down about 25 mi as we're not getting 2 to 4 in of snow. Not as of today, but let's hope that changes. As far as Friday goes, maybe Friday night into Saturday. We'll get two 3 in, but 3-6? Again.. not seeing that amount at this point. But hoping you're right

Could you see all rain or several inches of snow ?

I am beginning to think that there is some connection between snow and Mammoth and cold temps here about 1-2 weeks later.

The problem w/ the Euro all winter is that it's too dry. With both the GFS and CMC showing the strong potential for strong amplification....I think we at minimum see an upslope event for northwest facing slopes. BTW....go check out the Mammoth webcams. 4-8' w/ this storm. 100mph winds on top. Even by there standards, this is decent gig. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Inside 120, beyond 120 its been overall not great. It was not too good on this last event, had us getting almost nothing til 2 days ago.

if they're organic I would!

Might be tough there. Maybe sleet or like a 33 rain to start and ending as a little snow?

yes always good idea to put all your eggs into one basket

Gfs AI is full of precip at least we won't be in drought anymore if that verified!

Maybe your all rain for all of CT forecast will be correct . Some things going for it. Also some things argue against

I take it next weekend took a turn for the worst since I last looked this morning? seems like a ho hum type of vibe in the forum...

it seems like the Euro AI has more or less been 100% this winter! Best performing model hands down!! I don't think it missed one storm

Snow storm, February 3-4, 1995 - Storm Summary

....if the system trended 25 or 30 miles south.

First 70 of the year at MLI, and a new record high.

What are your thoughts/ forecast?