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34.7/33.4

35/33 in Fallston

I guess this is the OBS thread too? It's been flurrying here for a bit with a stiff SE breeze picking up @ 31°.

The entire route 81 area scares me this storm because of that 20-30 mile screw zone that going to set up and be brutal Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

28 and a burst of snow coating things up this morning

Here are two examples. The regional Canadian and more worrying the RRFS-A, which has never shown more than 3-4" since it got into range. This model is scheduled to replace the HRRR, NAM, RAP with the NEXT 3 MONTHS. The second to last image I threw in was the HRRR. You can clearly see the the sinking air screw zone. If the inverted trough is strong it's even worse as you essentially have two vacuum cleaners sucking up all moisture. I think the possibility for the worst of the possible screw zone might be a bit northeast, Schyukhill county scares the crap out me here. I can easily see a situation where people are livid in one town because they got 3" instead of 12-16" while a place between Harrisburg and state college under a wwa for 3-4" wakes up Monday morning to 12". There 100% will be a small but horrible area of sinking air in this setup. Good luck trying to predict it ahead of time. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

that is what something like dtwxrisk would say i see you two think alike .

woof, the NWS is explicitly calling for 18-24" in their storm total snow map here.

6z models look great. Oh boy oh boy oh boy.

the main sfc low that we will see begin developing today, no. But its part of the main overall system affecting us and i would count anything that fell overnight and this morning part of this storm. you can see the ULL parked over the great lakes just looking at the radar yes

Temp bottom out 32F last night, have risen to 37F

Hrrr has me at 38 and my backyard temp says 34

It's energy ahead of the system. You could see it modeled. Considering it will be consolidating into the same system, I see it as associated. Whatever, it's passed through now anyway, but wouldn't be surprised to see more on and off flurries today

What doesn't make sense to me is that guidance is moving the LBSW into LI and CT, but aren't maintaing the dynamics longer through my area and into the GOM....I think they are waning the dynamics too quickly after maturation.

Same here friend. Still have at least 6 inches on the ground and grass with bigger piles next to driveways and unused areas. This is going to be a back-breaking experience

Looks like the 9z HRRR is about 25 miles or so north of 6z at hour 18 and looking even better

I still have snow on the ground around here. With a blizzard on the doorstep. I can count on one hand the number of times I've seen that happen.

That makes a lot more sense based on current temps

Gonna need more reasoning to dispel the consistency with the majority of all the other models, meso and global. Not saying it's impossible, it just seems unlikely at this point, and an outlier solution.

That was left over snow from system we just had. The Storm hasn't formed yet. It's just starting to barely take shape now.

Have a Shirley temple. It’s on me.

What about the GFS? That owned every other model on this storm? You're such a weenie.

I have probably 16-17"

Think my sleep time frame is 6pm to 11pm then full on weenie mode for the duration

Because you like what it says. You can’t believe a storm can be this catastrophic. But we learned with Sandy that indeed, things can sometimes be catastrophic. But the experts who do this professionally are indeed worried and cannot just dismiss repeated modeling showing a widespread catastrophic snowfall. They would be remiss not to. Peace.