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I know without a doubt in my mind, that I will receive a quarter inch of rain in Buda thru October 12. Everytime forecasters go on and on about all the intricacies of this setup, like the 2 inch PWATs, I get next to nothing. 100 miles west of Buda will be obliterated by a foot of fresh rain. This is what always happens down here. THAT, is why we have a catastrophic drought and we will always have one, throughout this so-called strong El Nino. Sometimes I wish I were back in Washington DC. At least they get nice and 33 degree cold with rainstorm after rainstorm after gray bone chilling rainstorm after rainstorm with Ninos. We don't. We get sun, we get hot, we are dry as a proverbial popcorn fart and we always will be dry. They are already trimming amounts. They are already trimming the chance of precip per day. Here's the BAD news, this system will move super fast over Buda. That's why we will be extremely fortunate to pick up a quarter of an inch of rain. The more we get trimmed, the more we get denied. That's livin' in the Southwest and that's my neighborhood. Always short on rain, always long on hot as hell and dry. And windy too.

The Graf predicts nearly an inch of rain over the weekend.

DCA: +0.9 NYC: +0.7 BOS: +0.7 ORD: +1.2 ATL: +0.8 IAH: +1.0 DEN: +1.8 PHX: +1.2 SEA: +2.4

Yea get out the boats

NH Mid-Am is at Mt. Washington this coming Monday - Wednesday. What am I in for weather wise?

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.8 2.5 OCTOBER

Teleconnectors are collapsing too. Not sure what that's all about ...lest whether it's believable. But the big positive PNA may be in trouble if real.

Uh-oh and ooops

Will be interesting to see how the PDO responds through October with recurving typhoons on the menu for the month. Next one getting warmed up in the batters box now. Choi-wan. Which looks potentially stronger than Surigae was. TBD. Beyond that looks like pretty good chances for something to follow up too.

ABS challenge ftw...ain't that some crazy $hit!

Euro AI looks stormy over the next two weeks. A tough stretch for Epstein.

I was up on wachusett today. Some pretty spots for sure. Hit or Miss still. Haven't been up there in years, looks like the forest has taken quite a beating. Lots of dead oaks from past gypsy moth infestation. Beech trees are dying from BLD. Shame.

Got to 78 here. Clouds won the day again after some breaks earlier.

The 18z NAM shifts north with rainfall.

Meanwhile 71.7 for the high at both my stations (Syosset & Muttontown).

Low-mid 70's this aftrn. Low-mid 50's this morning. Beautiful end to Sept.

Low of 62, high of 88 for the last day of September. Dew points have climbed into the low 70s. Monthly stats: Highest temp: 97 Lowest temp: 52 Highest dew point: 86 Lowest dew point: 49 Rainfall: .82" No appreciable rain since Sept 4.

warm and rainy

Wow! Harper with an error for the ages!!

Just missed 80 at 79 today. Great day with less clouds wouldve hit low 80s for usre