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  2. Hailstoned
    So far, they seem sparser than in previous Junes here; hopefully, just not out in force yet.
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Prolific lighting over northern Nassau right now. Totally worth standing outside and watching .
  4. WxWatcher007
    LGA G69 on that latest thunderstorm
  5. vortex95
    Yes, the little details count when it comes to svr wx events. *One* thing off, and it can be the difference between several tors or none, or several intense, long-tracked tors or a bunch of weak, short-lived ones. For instance, sfc dew points are a few degrees lower than fcst. This raises the LFC, and lessens 0-3 km CAPE, which are key for tors. How many times does it look good "on paper" for big svr wx, and it fails. SCP and SIGTOR are high, and it's a major disappointment and under-performs. SCP and SIGTOR can't account for everything going on, they account for just some. They can't be treated in a vacuum! Of course, the door can swing the other way. How about June 5, 2024? That was a surprise! Yes, SPC had 2% tor risk, but it did not stand out as "big" for tor event in this area. It was not synopitcally-evident. And we got what, 13 tors? And they were not all just brief spin ups!
  6. Prue11
    .37” from earlier storms. Central Suffolk
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Sw Nassau just got rocked by a pulse cell. Small hail and extremly heavy rain, very brief 50+ mph gusts. Literally appeared on radar after passing jfk. That was an amazing surprise .
  8. vortex95
    Thanks. 0-6 km shear was only 15 kt at IAD, well below the threshold for marginal supercells (30-35 kt), so storm lacked mid-level mesos. All you need is a half-decent meso at mid-levels, and that makes storms *so* much "better." Even if no severe wx, the LTG and rainfall ramps up! 0-8 km shear was even weaker at 14 kt. And look at hodograph, it is a chaotic mess! Tons of CAPE only takes you so far. If the shear is lousy, it's hard to sustain discrete, long-lived cells. I'd take 1500 CAPE and 0-6 kt shear 40-45 kt anytime over 3500 CAPE and 0-6 shear 15-20 kt! The presence of good wind shear also prevents storms from gusting out too easily. The updraft and downdraft couplets in the storms are separated better in a higher-sheared environment. I realize some already know this, but this is a very important point when it comes to mesocyclones. The presence of mesocyclone just at mid-levels (low-levels can be nothing) greatly enhances the potential updraft strength of a tstm. It can double the updraft strength from buoyancy (CAPE) alone though dynamic pressure perturbations, so that's why supercells have such intense updrafts. 1500-2000 CAPE may not sound like much, but if the shear is ideal, holy cow. For instance, the April 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak in the OH Valley, CAPE was 1500-2000, and the 0-6 kt shear was about as high as I have ever seen it for an outbreak. It was 100-110 kt! That's crazy, and you had a lot of intense, long-tracked tors.
  9. CAPE
    The broken line died just to the west of me, but had a nice outflow with some wind to dry things up a bit more.
  10. doncat
    Storm weakened on approach then strengthened when past so just 0.09" with a 30mph gust.
  11. CAPE
  12. AlexD1990
    Never got a thing over here, after being blasted last night with a one off.
  13. jewell2188
    How is tomorrow looking? More of a trigger versus today?
  14. John1122
    You're usually pretty accurate with these. I'm in your red dashed area.
  15. steve392
    Nice little cell developed over us. Dumping rain right now. Incredible light show outside. Tons of thunder.
  16. steve392
    Rainoved into my area finally. Had what sounds like very small hail hitting window ac unit.
  17. WxWatcher007
    A little concerned that I only saw two fireflies in my backyard tonight. Hopefully they’re just early.
  18. Today
  19. GramaxRefugee
    Squall line came through about 2100L for 0.15" Hi today 90f, very humid DP reached 80.
  20. Jackstraw
    That's right on top of @IWXwx
  21. winterwx21
    0.35" from that storm. Not bad. Obviously doesn't put a dent in the drought, but enough to give the vegetable garden a much-needed watering. For a change I won't have to water tomorrow.
  22. frostfern
    Little tornado near Bristol Indiana. CC drop.
  23. SnowenOutThere
    Thanks to everyone for responding! Adding to this discussion with the echo tops and visible sat estimated from the KIAD radar. Seems to support the general idea of a low topped environment. Can see that one cell southwest of DC trying to reach upward, but the real visible edge of the storms as the low level outflow induced shelf clouds. What an interesting storm system; had low topped storms in a high CAPE environment and despite that had significant wind with it. Always interests me why a certain storm is a particular way. Also helped show me CAPE isn't everything I thought it is.
  24. nwohweather
    Nice tornado approaching Ft Wayne
  25. George BM
    That combined w/ that warmer ~400mb layer preventing the updrafts from really getting up towards the EL would be my non-redtag hypothesis.
  26. nwohweather
    One thing to notice, dews are surging ahead of the line as the LLJ kicks in. Up to 72° in Ft Wayne right now. Going to be a dicey night for sure
  27. Picard
    We are. That storm to the north really blew up and developed a nice southern component. The lightening has been non-stop and we're past 0.6" of rain according to two nearby gauges on weather underground. Lots of rolling thunder now. Our dog is having a rough go of it.
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