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There was a heavier snow shower in the Harriman, NY area this afternoon.

Contenders

Scott and Son lol.

Lol Philly fans are so spoiled

Greta does, down on the NYC forum. Got a met tag too.

But it’s not even that potent. Just blows up the low.

I feel like it's been the most consistent whereas the Euro changes with the wind. Idk, weird to consider the GFS possibly leading the way on this but I would say climo argues for a track similar to what it's showing.

Bears

it’s just way more consolidated with the vort as it moves through the Plains and Midwest

Let’s move it into the storm thread now so we don’t have the same disco in 2 spots.

Coating?

The past few years has been what ever model gives me the least amount of snow will somehow end up being right in the end...So the battle within is, different year, same result or does this year finally buck the trend? I mean, can the GFS really be that correct? Sure, but if recent memory is correct, then it will stick with an amped solution until 48-72 hrs and will suddenly bounce to the rest of guidance...

Going to be tough getting big totals when your basically looking at a 9-12hr storm unless you get some heavy rates, Its moving right along.

Gfs is so fundamentally different in how it handles the cyclogenesis.

Yeah 42.0° here. Currently 36.8°. Hoping to make a run at 26° or so, maybe get some ice on the inlet shoreline.

One of these models is gonna be grossly off.

Agreed. Especially where I am it's not going to be beefy one way or the other unless you thread the needle. However, any thing that helps with keeping it snow longer will help. A flatter look means less rain for most.

Terpeast probably was worried he was going to have to eat his shoe so he's happy that this run of the gfs is the final solution

My guess is this ends up being something flatter which would benefit most in the Ptype department but I don’t think you’d be looking at any beefy totals. Probably borderline warning criteria for some towns. I mean which is still great for early Dec…but you’ll see a lot of disappointed people in the totals because they didn’t live up to clown map expectations

Haha. Let's hope so. I try to post in snippets as I have found over the years that those are easier to read than the essay posts - which I still use. In other words, I think it is easier for folks (most of us are used to social media posts which are shorter) to ready the shorter posts. Plus, sometimes I will have a big post which is "in process" as I look at model suites...and then it gets lost due to a refresh or any number of user errors. Plus, I can delete an inaccurate or poorly worded "shorter" post and not lose an entire train of thought. Truly, it is a lot more fun when everyone else is posting. I like that the most by a long shot. I think that is when our forum is at its best. When it is quiet over the holidays or weekday mornings...sometimes I will post more. But you all make the place what it is.

With the volatility of guidance right now I think we’ll have a good idea about what happens after it happens

Unhappy hour am I right!?

took mine out of the shed and greased/changed the oil. in the garage now, since there's a chance

It’s a raging rainstorm well north and west of NYC and into New England.

It was farther south and east until hour 99 than the 12z run, then it became more amped than 12z from hr 102 forward. My guess is GFS goes back SE at 00z run...