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I think you should too.

Here’s Here’s the 12Z EPS’ 360 showing very cold in W Canada poised to possibly plunge into the N Plains soon afterward: (taking with a grain for now since its out at 360 but MJO would support it):

Dual lows still on NAM. Really having trouble pulling off a coherent cyclone in the fast flow

NAM cooled a hair from 12z.

I know some people have canceled winter by mid January, I guess we’ll see. I’m not sure I agree with that yet.

My favorite when there is a snowpack. Refresher, brief heavy snow and wind and fresh cold

NAM coming in a little flatter so far than 12z

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 111 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 NJZ009-PAZ101-103-105-020900- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0013.251202T0900Z-251202T1500Z/ Hunterdon-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Including the cities of Perkasie, Collegeville, Pottstown, Honey Brook, Flemington, Oxford, and Chalfont 111 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around a light glaze. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Hunterdon County. In Pennsylvania, Upper Bucks, Western Chester, and Western Montgomery Counties. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

I think it’s a downstream consequence of re-establishing the equatorward pacific jet and rebuilding the -EPO.

I can see it from my window

If the band orients WSW-ENE through you and Dendrite, would have to think the summit of Kearsarge could be our jack

Good to know…we’ll see if that comes to fruition…or not?

Lol. My forecast is a "wet dusting". I must say social media is over run with a plethora of "weather authority" vendors these days- and most of them are posting absolute swap these days. Any body with a computer and a map is putting out snow maps these days! I'm sure AI isnt helping with that

The second one is the current map

I realize the following comment's likely to catapult me into the top ranked popularity seeding but ... winter sputters in January this year. Possibly early on too. Canonical thaw struggles to reset and then its flower February

I get why you're thinking maybe a relaxation after the 15th. However, I think the MJO in cold Phase along with possible upstream blocking should curtail any significant warmup mid late month. If anything, may get a deeper dive of the PJ and Cold. The PAC Jet may try to mitigate the Effects of the above mentioned as it may dampen the -EPO but, the MJO and -NAO should still keep troughing in the East. Just my Antique 2 Cents worth. Of course, if the -NAO is not still there or robust then a milder outcome.

lol Judah

Interesting that I'm under a WSW and the NWS map has 7", when the Meso models are basically rain.

It better thump from the onset. Otherwise, even these numbers might not materialize.

I was expecting a mid-month warmup, but that's looking more and more temporary.

My zones add up to 7-13 and Elster has increased total expected to 10 for CON. We are prob gonna get that band

It's going to be a close call here in Haywood County overnight. I see GSP has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Buncombe and Henderson Counties now. Frankly the models are struggling beyond 24 to 48 hours. Until they settle down, it's hard to put much faith in the medium and longer range guidance.

The rain line sneaking north -- a tale as old as time. NWS's latest map.....

The AK vortex is there for only 5 days (days 5-10) after which it’s pushed well inland. By day 15, it’s way different per 12Z ens: 12Z GEFS: 12Z EPS: