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With the sREFs, the NAM, and the HRRR all on board giving us an absolutely historical blizzard and the NWS telling us 13 - 18 inches, I have no clue why TV meteorologists are still saying "6 - 10 inches." Are they really hugging the EURO this much and think everything is going to come around to support the EURO?

On the sideline again, oh well good luck to the north crew

HRRR is sexy AF .

Today is the day.... "...Some of you men are wondering whether or not you'll chicken out under fire. Don't worry about it. I can assure you that you'll all do your duty. Weather is a bloody business, a killing business. The models are the enemy. Wade into them, spill their blood or they will spill yours. Shoot them in the guts. Rip open their belly. When shells are hitting all around you and you wipe the dirt from your face and you realize that it's not dirt, it's the blood and guts of what was once your best friend, you'll know what to do... Then there's one thing you men will be able to say when this storm is over and you get back home. Thirty years from now when you're sitting by your fireside with your grandson on your knee and he asks, 'What did you do in the great Blizzard of 2026?' You won't have to cough and say, 'Well, your granddaddy shoveled shit in Louisiana.' No sir, you can look him straight in the eye and say 'Son, your granddaddy rode with the great Philly Weather Forum and a son-of-a-goddamned-bitch named Mikey Mac!' All right, you sons of bitches. You know how I feel. I'll be proud to lead you wonderful guys in battle anytime, anywhere. That's all."

Thats how its done

Crusher

Even the RAP knows where Frederick is

Long range 12z HRRR is just insane, wow

FWIW watched TWC they are going with 9 inches for Manhattan and just east on LI 16 plus.

haven't seen anything like that in a while

Bun me if you must ... but this is a little frustrating seeing these runs get cute with their position fixes in that 48 to 70 hour window overnight. This look above, is theoretically more supported than any other guidance I've seen, including the GFS, since 3 days ago frankly. It doesn't mean that the low has to come within 40 MI S of Block Island like that ... But, there's just no commitment to where this thing should be, relative to the larger synoptic wave signature(s). I've said multiple times over the years that this pursuit is a game of managing nested anomalies. We have a -PNA, inside which we have a positive relative PNA burst hosting this event, inside of which ... the idiosyncrasies of track and storm morphology dictates a pedestrian showing N-W of roughly HFD-BOS ... and the ferocity variant relegated SE of that line because the inner most nested anomaly has the surface preferential to a SE position within 'the cone' - so to speak. It's annoying. Be that as it may ... But - as an example - if we look at 42 hour surface featuring of the 06z Euro operational, there is low position ~ 75 to 100 MI E of the Va Capes. At that time the best quasi-geostrophic forcing is not there. It's WNW around the Ches. Bay side of the Del Marva stinger there. But this is like teeing off in Golf (metaphor), where you swore you swung a great stroke but you hit the ball 1 deg off the sweet spot and that tiny error ends up being an unsavory fairway fringe lay down stream. Just a knee jerk guess ... the models are ending up mid way between the best deep layer forcing, and the what may be irresistible ...ultimately real mad mad convective instability out there.

Solid man

HRRR is ~0.2-0.4" QPF after 5pm. That's our event.

You'll be fine. Even once it snows, it's going to take some time to cool the road surfaces enough for snow to stick. After 4 PM I'd stay off the roads. I have friends coming in from Sunday River (8.5 hour drive) They will be back by 4:30 tomorrow

Further north like we want.

It’s coming

East Hartford. This is easily the best pack I've seen since 2013.

Howdy, all. Long-time lurker, first time poster. Anticipating anything from 6-12 here, just north of the DE border, but def preparing for more. Pleasure to be with you all for the spills, thrills, and everything in between!

Morning low of 8 at MSP

roads will still be wet during the morning and early afternoon -they are going to put a ton of ice melt and salt down and temps close to or above freezing

Need a return to Nam’ing this morning to keep momentum going. Cam’s could be very helpful in this one.

A true beast on the HRRR…976mb here .

Nah…should be powder with some wind and drifting. Nothing crazy for wind though like coastal sections.

Manhattan