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suspect action will be south/east of ord but airports are a cluster fuck right now for many reasons, good luck!

23-24 reached super criteria based off of traditional ONI, which peaked at +2.1C for NDJ. Using the new RONI however, it peaked at moderate, borderline strong.

Had it been colder-all locations would have had another 2-4 inches-Sunday daytime was rain/white rain for most areas

Many climate alarmist like to point to the Time of Observation Bias (TOB) as solid "scientific adjustments" required to correct that bias. NOAA/NCEI in fact chose to chill every year at Coatesville from 1895 thru 1982. However, if anything when we look at the facts of when these observations were taken (see the below of COOP observation time/years) we see that with the exception of 11 years.... temperatures were in reality recorded in the morning. So if their rationale is correct the bias for Coatesville should in fact be too cool with all of those AM minimum temperature reports. Yet they chose to not warm those years - they actually made additional chilling adjustments.

Climate realist board....

Yeah I've been keenly on this every day for the past month as we're globally getting set sail into this next ultimately unknown +ENSO. The warm/NINO phase is all but certain, but ...the amplitude and so forth, tbd. The last time we were in switch from a NINA to NINO, there was a global temperature surge, air and sea, like never before observed since humanity picked first up the first burning stick, wondered, and ultimately doomed their fate ( whole 'nother dystopian story). It's not clear that the NINA/NINO switch was causal in the global multi-metric temperature surge in 2023; it in fact preceded the on set of the NINO. However, intuitively ...having a warm tropical anomaly concurrent certainly is not helping to offset a warming world, incrementally. This is concerning, this hot water curve above. +.58C as of that last tick ( to be verified but seldom do these not - ) is a mere .1 < than the 2024 historic max, which took place there nearing the end of April. This sets off a chain of reasoning for me... Most of those curves, in fact all of them at a glance with the exception of last year ... were already beginning to fall by now, the Ides of March. Last year, however, was the first in which that was not the case. The SSTs gained yet for another month - doing so during a NINA, no less?! The Earth had for the first time in decades, gained when the climatology inference clearly argued(s) it should have been falling. I don't believe that it trivial, albeit easily overlooked. More on that in the bottom paragraph. When looking at the recent month(s) of this year, and combining with those aspect... there's no sense there that this curve isn't going to set a new record. We are preset at an elevated state, with yet an impending warm phase of the ENSO ...? Just beginning to register, and we only have .1 to spare. It's my opinion that we are not done with the 2023 burst. I sense that was a first step during what could turn into a much more important total geological threshold/move. Last years odd global SST gains is an insidious way of signaling we are still in burst-prone' state ... possible the same burst, perhaps crossing a incredibly fast geological time comparisons, which is going to be unknowable to a sentience ( us ) whose perception of time moves too swiftly. while at the same time, the state of the art of the science hasn't identified that as actually happening yet. Not that anyone can stop it. It's too late.

I see what you're saying.. for some reason I thought Nino was more +PDO-like, with a ridge overtop the N. pacific trough. I think in the 1895-1950 dataset they are a little more neutral or negative EPO/WPO

Winter 23-24 did act like a Super Nino in terms of precip. although November was dry

The PDO is a 50/50 index, half warm half cold or visa-versa.

Those storms you listed didn’t add up to 37.2”(18.5”,11.2”, and 5.2”)=34.9”. So I’m assuming you had a couple small snows in there too?

But you didn’t get to experience 1938 or 1888, so maybe you wouldn’t think that they rank higher if you got to experience both of those? But I agree…both of those at least here in CT were super incredible according to the history books.

2.85" here, 1" BN for March. This week's 2 midgets will close the gap, but the month will still be the 10th BN of the last 11. April 2007 broke the record for snow at the Farmingtion co-op with 36.1"; it's 50% above #2 at 24", POR 1983-2022. We had 37.2", with storms of 18.5", 11.2" and my only "5-by-5" event. The Patriots Day bomb brought 5.2" SN and 5.43": total precip. That said, my best April has to be 1982, as it included the most powerful blizzard of my 80 years' experience. For anomalous events, I rank that storm with things like the Octobomb, 4/97 at inland sites, 2/78 in eastern SNE, 2/52 in southern/central Maine and the 1998 ice storm. IMO, only 1938 and 1888 rank higher.

He’s saying it caused the MJO to be in phases that you wouldn’t normally expect during a very strong Nino. This is kind of what people on here have been saying just in a different way.

The 23-24 Winter warmth was not all because of Strong El Nino. It's like saying 01-02 and 97-98 match if you compare US Temp maps. There were different patterns leading to the same localized outcome. The N. Pacific is the main region effected by ENSO, and the N. Pacific pattern was relatively weak in 23-24. That's why the RONI worked better than ONI that year. That's why the RONI is being used. The +WPO was a main driver of 23-24, it just matched corresponding US El Nino temp patterns, but not necessarily because of the same reasons (unless you can explain why +wpo is el nino - I think it's more of a -PDO/cold ENSO pattern).

Let's get some heat next week!!!

Ahh that’s tough bro…feel for you. Go enjoy some warmth and sun…it’ll do you good.

A true HECS there. Underforecast too. Was on the western edge of the jackpot here "only" got 30 inches. I knew it had potential when the overrunning part of the storm dropped 12 inches

March 25 2007: Record warmth stretches from southern Minnesota to western Wisconsin with 72 at Owatonna, 77 at Menomonie, WI, and 80 at Eau Claire, WI. 1981: An F2 tornado hits Morrison county and does $25,000 worth of damage. For Wednesday, March 25, 2026 1843 - A second great snowstorm hit the northeastern U.S. The storm produced snow from Maine all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Natchez MS received three inches of snow, and up to 15 inches buried eastern Tennessee. Coastal Maine received 204 inches of snow that winter. (David Ludlum) 1914 - Society Hill, SC, was buried under 18 inches of snow, establishing a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1934 - A spring storm produced 21 inches of snow at Amarillo TX in 24 hours. However, much of the snow melted as it fell, and as a result, the snow cover was never any deeper than 4.5 inches. (David Ludlum) 1948 - For the second time in less than a week airplanes were destroyed by a tornado at Tinker AFB in Oklahoma City OK. A March 20th tornado destroyed fifty planes at Tinker AFB causing more than ten million dollars damage, and the March 25th tornado destroyed another thirty-five planes causing six million dollars damage. The first tornado struck without warning, and caused more damage than any previous tornado in the state of Oklahoma. The second tornado was predicted by Fawbush and Miller of the United States Air Force, and their accurate tornado forecast ushered in the modern era of severe weather forecasting. (The Weather Channel) (Storm Data) (The National Severe Storms Forecast Center) 1975 - The town of Sandberg reported a wind gust to 101 mph, a record for the state of California. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Heavy rain left rivers and streams swollen in Kansas and Nebraska, causing considerable crop damage due to flooding of agricultural areas. The Saline River near Wilson Reservoir in central Kansas reached its highest level since 1951. March rainfall at Grand Island NE exceeded their previous record of 5.57 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - An early season heat wave prevailed in the southwestern U.S. The high of 93 degrees at Tucson, AZ, was a new record for March. Windy conditions prevailed across the central and eastern U.S. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Minneapolis MN, and reached 120 mph atop Rendezvous Peak WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A Pacific storm brought wet weather to much of the western third of the country, with heavy snow in some of the higher elevations. La Porte CA was drenched with 3.56 inches of rain in 24 hours. Up to 24 inches of snow blanketed the Sierra Nevada Range. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Temperatures dipped below zero in the Northern Rocky Mountain Region. Hardin MT was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 10 degrees below zero. Freezing drizzle was reported in the Southern Plains Region, with afternoon highs only in the 30s from the Southern High Plains to Missouri and Arkansas. (The National Weather Summary)

Sucks...Steve just lost a pet, too. I had two dogs as a child that I got in third grade....they lived until I was 27 lol. Like 18 years.

Per JB, the reason the 2023-4 El Niño was so mild in much of the U.S. is that there weren’t the typical cold SST anomalies around Australia that often exist during El Niño as it instead was warm there. He’s expecting colder anomalies around Australia this time. Remember how the model consensus had at H5 the beautiful E US and Aleutian troughs? Opinions?

denier board

We had to put our dog down on Monday and scheduled it to happen like 2.5 weeks ago. It was an absolutely emotionally grinding few weeks and really hard processing. I know things will get better over time but the process getting to that point absolutely sucks.

Although the mid Atlantic will be toasty next week.