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Get that max north. I want divorces In Newfound

Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through much or all of the remainder of July. The warmest spots could reach the middle 80s on occasion. Some showers or thundershowers are possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.82°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -29.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.591 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 82% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.6° (0.9° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yeah looks like another good soaker on the way down there.

Locally, almost everything I'm seeing implies a colder winter than 2023-24. For Nov-Jan, a colder Atlantic (AMO) is correlated almost everywhere with colder US temps. That reverses later, but its important early on.

Didn't we just do that 2 weeks ago and ended up with 2-3" ?

You’re right, I’m not going to split hairs but this event is much warmer in region 1+2 than 2015 was but I honestly don’t think it’s going to matter with how strong this thing is going to get. Moot point. By the end of November we are going to have a completely overwhelming beast of an El Niño on our hands and I think we blow away records with the traditional ONI, RONI and the MEI

Left handers coming up in the 8th inning. 88 pitches. Why pull Rodgers? Dumb move. No way to really know but with Buck it feels like a + 3 -5 more victories in the win column. This season.

Yes was looking on x and saw there was a model of a trough taking a nose dive from somebody it is summer time after all .

It looks like the ring of fire pattern could return. I was looking to see if any MCS possibilities were on tap.

I also heard between Sunday Monday timeframe could potentially be dealing with a mcs possibly https://x.com/0meterchasers/status/2081018000312881519?s=46&t=nTdsbQZkQMPkUI3zGjAXJg .

D4 yellow highlighted slight risk issued https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2026/day4-8_20260725.html .

.46'' this morning Up to 11.30'' for the month.

If I get into the 50s tonight, that will be something like 4/6 days in the 50s at the hottest time of year! Also Billings, MT just hit 111 a few weeks ago, breaking their all time high of 108.

CFS does have a 1983/1998 look to it, where we get - anomalies to the dateline. I don’t worry too much about Nino 1+2 or even much of Nino 3. What matters most to me is how far east we see suppressed convection. You’re pretty much never going to see heavy convection near 1+2 anyway.

As expected. Highs hovering around 80 in the area. Point fail.

I got under one of those heavy popup cells finally. 0.4" in about 10 minutes.

By far the nicest late July morning I can recall in years. Softball tourney day is usually under blazing sun even at 9am. Was perfection this morning.

It’s worse than what I said. I meant two blocks from DCA. Not even the part of Crystal City with “elevation.” Thought about Falls Church but decided the commute would be too far, so Reston is way too much!

This image shows well that ‘97 was much more E based on July 19th:

18z GFS floods

Man, the silver line extends out to Reston for a reason. You’d get a whole 30 minutes to maybe even an hour of more snow before the flip to rain in our warmer 2016 redux.

Yeah I’m feeling optimistic we can at least get to a point where convection shuts down in the MC, but still have work to do for getting suppression to the dateline. The interesting thing here is that 1983 and 1998 produced nearly identical results in OLR for the back half of winter but have different outcomes in the Eastern US. Goes to my original point I made awhile ago that KU events are a huge part “luck” and not to look too much into the exact placement of warm SSTAs for this. 1998 was close to one multiple times.