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We should see a nice stretch later on once the MJO hits 7, and especially if it actually hits 8. I hope you were speaking only in terms of intensity, otherwise 2016-2017 is an atrocious analog...that event was Modoki, this is east-based.

That makes a lot of sense. I would suspect we may not know how strong that is until maybe even "go time." Tricky forecast w/ some upside as you note. We just don't want that to jog north at the last minute. Otherwise, that looks spot on.

It’s been a pretty good winter with consistent low snow pack and no extreme cold. Final grade: B-

I would suspect the event for the 17th-18th may well have some high ratios as BigBald noted. I actually like the 0z GEM-para look for that event IF that cold air is legit.

Yea, that threat never had a chance...DOA.

AGAIN...Exactly what I said to expect for this period.....I kept reiterating +PNA January even though long range guidance was trying to show a never ending RNA....also said that PV would get strong as a result of the +TNH and strat reflection, but this is priming the atmosphere to rape the PV next month. IGNORE GUIDANCE. Maybe I will be wrong about the Feb SSW...I don't mean to sound arrogant. All I am saying is that it's too early to know despite long range guidance.

That's about right, with a bit more in eastern NC and the Gulf Coast states lol. Need some changes upstairs or this is gonna be at best a glancing blow. Surface low pressure forms offshore.

PV forecasts this season have been positively abysmal, which is why I'm not yet concerned about my call for a Feb SSW...TBH, I'd prefer that a strong PV be modeled for February at this point.....I have said all along that it won't show up in guidance until the end of January at the earliest. Remember back in December I wasn't worried about the long range saying that the PV would remain weak, so it goes both ways....I'm not just being a weenie.

Nice wintry scene. I’m neutered, brown frown is back…

Last night’s surprise 2.5 is 250x what ill get on the 15/16.

I won’t be surprised. Looks like ass.

I wouldn't give up hope on a nice stretch, but odds of hitting climo snowfall this season in my area are on life support...unimaginable 8th consecutive season.

When a hobby begins to impact someone's physical and mental health that is when it ceases to be a hobby. Some people here have allowed a hobby to morph into an obsession...and that isn't a good thing The vast majority of people here would be better off studying the stock market and/or having a side gig rather than staring at model output day after day...

Can you post? I know it’s a clown map but again, that’s when I’m going skiing so.. maybe I can needlessly hype up the crew lol.

Dare I say, close the shades for our “favorable period”…

What’s happening around the 22nd to 25th? Going skiing for the first time in 10+ years with some friends for the weekend, it would be awesome if we got some snow (it’s just Wisp lol, so deep creek md area.) I keep seeing some stuff popping up in the long-range for that period. More than half of my ski trips (only every 4ish years before this time) had some big snows those weekends. How’s that for an analog?

Props. You never bit

Ray knew-

The 6z Euro has removed the 0z run Gulf event - weird run...plausible, but out of nowhere it came and back to nowhere it went.. It probably serves as a reminder that large scale, last minute changes are still possible as we get better NA data of those vortices(when they approach and make NA landfall). Looks like two minor events this week w/ "potentially" the coldest air of the season arriving the 19th-20th. Then we (maybe?) roll a ridge through, and the potential is there for another deepening of the eastern trough beginning sometime around or shortly after the 25th. I think we see a big dog before this winter is over....provided the cold air incursions continue. The tough thing w/ an EPO ridge patterns is that sometimes the ridge gets too tall like it did in 17-18(think that is the right year), gets very cold, but precip has trouble getting into the pattern. Ultimately, I think the main snow culprit is ongoing drought which is a thorn with La Nina patterns at times - and this is currently a textbook, QBO La Nina pattern. However, I think this winter is far from over at this point. The EPO ridge looks like it may well have some staying power. As we hit February, shortening wavelengths and a weakening La Nina should break the drought. Of note, Cosgrove notes the La Nina is moderate...and that is no bueno for eastern winters. SST anomalies depict La Nina for sure. The positive is that the Nina should rapidly weaken according to him and Webber. Good and bad -> One thing to watch w/ clippers and cold fronts. They can often strengthen a bit on modeling as we approach the event, and they will often lift north at the last second - buyer beware.

Hopefully Pensacola gets 10” while I approach 4 years without a 6+ deal.

just think of how much money was made on Facebook showing fantasy storm snow outputs.

No, the first wave is toast....the follow up may try to come back. I'll be surprised if we get nothing from that, too.

It was so pathetic, I don't think I made a single post......certainly didn't post a clown map. Tells you all you need to know.

Even that thread...it's a virtual wake at this point.

I'll bet the mid Atlantic scores again