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  2. MI into PA looks p locked in with the sludge air today, rough
  3. hey guys hope all is well and everyone's enjoying their summer. I was just wondering when do you think this smoke problem will go away?
  4. Maybe it eventually becomes more east-based given how far east the warm pool is relative to other events, but right now at the surface this is clearly basin-wide and not as east-based as 1997. I have posted the weekly figures. It's similar to 2015. Do I think that this really matters? No, there is so much warm water throughout the ENSO basin. This all screams "variable pattern that is warm in the seasonal mean" to me.
  5. Vis 10 miles here with deep blue skies. Best climo.
  6. 530 was the peak AQI in Minneapolis overnight. Eyes and throat burn working outside in this crap. Good times
  7. Clearly my early hunch was wrong, as is often the case.
  8. They are touting the pattern in the composite of Super El Nino events as being comparable to the precursor pattern in SSW events, which when combined with W QBO favors a warming in January or February. While I agree that any warming will be during the second half, I can't help but question why we haven't actually seen any SSW during super El Nino events, despite the similarity to the precursor pattern....then don't address that. They are also focusing on the low arctic sea ice as a big factor to predisposing the PV to disruption.
  9. IF we get enough smoke it may stop us from getting to 100F LOL.
  10. I have been thinking the same thing. 1983 and 2016 shows the potential that super ninos bring. 97/98 is the feared example, however, the west PAC water temps are different this year which can help offset the E PAC warmth in terms of MJO. I am actually looking forward to the potential.
  11. I'll be out of town on Saturday (still in the slight, but still) - so I expect a massive severe line to wipe out the DC area.
  12. I swear you could smell the smoke this morning. And my eyes were stinging coming into work. Going to be such a fun day
  13. Seeing aqi of 700 around Detroit. Insane to see whats going on back home in the lakes region.
  14. Thats where im from before coming out this way. It is really bad up there. Got family and friends messaging me on how breathing is making their throats scratchy even after 5 mins outside. Really insane and worse than 2023.
  15. Don't weenie tag me but, boy if we can get a phase between the the polar jet stream and what's sure to be an extremely active subtropical jet stream this winter, it could really get a historic snowstorm.
  16. Haze showing up at DCA. Current DC air quality listed as 62 (moderate). NWS forecasts air quality to worsen today... ...AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY JULY 16 2026... The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments and District Department of Environment has issued a Code ORANGE Air Quality Alert Thursday for the District of Columbia. A Code Orange Air Quality Alert means that air pollution concentrations within the region may become unhealthy for sensitive groups. (snip)
  17. Looks like the heat shifts to Western CONUS heading into late July with more comfortable temperatures here.
  18. The local mets here were saying that when the front passed by the Ontario fires it caused them to flare up a ton - and modeling hadn't considered that. About 4 minutes in https://youtu.be/K5Y3sW9b4Gs?is=6dEwOaDH-42u7ttl
  19. 93 yesterday. hazy sun this morning
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