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18Z AI EPS - thanks to @Weather Will in the Mid Atlantic thread. For CTP, about half of the ensemble members bring at least light snow & several heavy hitters remain as possible outcomes.

Last 2 winters colder than normal (even tho per cromartieepo last winter torched lmao). Must not be good for MKE palms. Been a pure beavis winter in Detroit. The coming pattern change is a reminder of how wild the next 2 months can be (torches, arctic blasts, snowstorms, tornados, etc).

Yeah im just looking for at least 1 warning event in Feb and 1 in March to start considering it for the A/A- range. Really sucks when we leave an entire calendar month open with bl normal snowfall and no storms like Jan 2021. Snowpack was really good around here this winter. For low elevations in southern Connecticut, continuous snowpack for longer than a week is usually the exception and not the rule. A typical winter, even a really good one like 16-17 or 17-18 it snows, melts, rains..rains some more then repeat. It's only those few instances like 2011, 2015, 2021 where we had prolonged deep snowpack right down to the shore for several straight weeks

You're right...of course it does whatever the heck it wants. And this isn't scientific in the slightest. It's no different than the baseball player refusing to wash a sock during a 30-game hitting streak...some are a little more like that than others, lol So err... See ya on the weekend during our next HECS (or whenever it happens...hopefully, lol)

Also, saw a snow boa today lol

It’s ripping here tonight. Might get to a foot if it keeps this way

North Shore sometimes gets hot and it just snows there. Happened a lot in the 2013-14 winter. They had it coming after the recent brutal stretch there.

Of course it does whatever it wants. But I'll see ya on the weekend of our next HECS (whenever it happens...Hopefully, lol)

North shore winter. They deserved it. Even tonight.

Today’s Euro Weeklies are significantly warmer than the last few for the 3 wks 2/23-3/15

Low of 52.5 and high of 64.7 after a high of 69.2 yesterday

Could absolutely be another head fake. Need some cross model consensus

The mountain west hasn't had deep winter, we have. And if you think we've seen the last snow.... In fact, the average last snowfall is still 2+ months away.

Yeah, the mountains could desperately use the pattern change.

It seems to want to snow.

This storm is now up as the 10th 3"+ snow event of the season with snowfall maps/radar/sfc/upper air maps in the archive https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-6-7-2026

It’s just another model… it’s just another model…

I’m pretty surprised honestly

If we somehow reel this system back in to be a warning event in SNE, this winter will really start moving up the charts. It’s already been a damned good winter but we have a lot of snow climo left and you don’t want to waste those periods.

i feel like we been baited nearly every day since last Wednesday we've been tracking/talking about this system.

This still feels like classic bait…but Euro skynet suite showing some enthusiasm makes this a little more interesting. Still need other guidance to jump on board.

That is a pretty crazy mean

no clue homie, the thing that catches my eye is the AIFS, not the ensemble but main model, is now coming N/stronger with the low for the first time yet for this storm. Even last night at 00Z when the euro showed a big hit, it wanted nothing to do with it.

It will turn somewhat cooler to close the week. Temperatures will mainly top out in the middle to upper 30s on Thrusday and Friday. Thw weekend will see highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. It could become even milder with highs in the lower to perhaps middle 40s next week. Precipitation could arrive on Sunday or Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was -1.20 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.676 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

What’s up with the AIFS, it’s so damn snowy. 4-6” mean Monday then another several inches the following 10 day. As a 12-18” total mean for all of New England about the highest all year.