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  2. LakePaste25
    Preliminarily this is where I’m leaning (locally): December +7 to +10 January +5 to +8 February -1 to +2 I will revise this later on. This is for the lower Great Lakes (Erie, Cleveland, Buffalo, Rochester)
  3. michsnowfreak
    Possible. Just hope youre wrong lol. January being the coldest month is still very workable with temps solidly above avg here. But want to avoid the +10 nonsense.
  4. Kevin Reilly
    1992 was also a time where the tropics in the Pacific was very active. Iniki hit the northwest Hawaiian Islands that year not too much different than this year so far. However, looks like even more hurricane activity could affect the Hawaiian Islands in the coming two weeks.
  5. dendrite
    Close at FLL and HST too. Really interesting setup for a mid summer afternoon down there. NNW flow and dews somewhat mixed out.
  6. KakashiHatake2000
    SPC has day 2 marginal and slight risk out for west and middle tn specifically the northwest area of west tn and marginal up to and around i65 and goes back southwestward for 5-15% damaging wind 2% tornado and also 5% hail as well https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html .
  7. WxWatcher007
    Congrats Miami on hitting 100°
  8. 87storms
    I might officially declare the drought over. The question now is are we gonna get our once every 5-10 yr blizzard.
  9. cleetussnow
    We need AO help biggly and not the overrated kind. I’m otherwise in the @forkyforkcamp on this one.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    January could end up pretty warm is we build huge departures early on.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Last season featured my first positive seasonal snowfall anomaly since 2017-2018.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, that is your site? Awesome job! My only critique is that it only has mean vp, and not vp anomalies.
  13. Brewbeer
    Mowing today, did not finish, ran over the second yellow jacket nest of the season. Will need to work on that after dark. Lawn has come back nicely, now that cooler weather and lower dews have arrived.
  14. yotaman
    We hit 99 today. First time this year and hopefully the last time. Heat index as high as 126 earlier.
  15. BeastFromTheEast
    The desertification of the UK. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/aug/17/uk-government-emergency-drought-plans-transparency
  16. RUNNAWAYICEBERG
    We got like 10-12” but we live elevated. Half mile down the road by the park was the complete disaster.
  17. WxUSAF
    NAM 3k runs have been really bullish for Thursday. Kiss of death?
  18. RUNNAWAYICEBERG
    The more I follow the Clancy case, the more it points to Patricks guilt instead. He did it.
  19. vortex95
    @CoastalWx should read this before passing summary judgement on the RRFS! RRFS_webinar_20260625.pdf
  20. Today
  21. pazzo83
    MIA hit 100F for only the 2nd time ever today.
  22. Maggie Valley Steve
    I got the property cleaned up and ready for our guests arriving tomorrow afternoon in the Short term rental. The sound of chain saws nearby all day and the neighbors above cutting down trees. I believe that's was the worst storm since Fred 5 years ago for our part of the Mountains.
  23. Hurricane Agnes
    I actually picked up some back-built leftovers yesterday for 0.49" total for the day and a 2-day event total of 1.06". Had a low of 73 and a high of 87. The dews have been annoying and it's currently 84 with dp 73.
  24. kdxken
  25. roardog
    A strong El Niño favors a cool Fall that turns mild for December but who knows.
  26. OrdIowPitMsp
    October will be rocking
  27. Stormchaserchuck1
    2 cold Winter's in the Northeast followed by an El Nino looks like this precip wise (10 analogs is a pretty good amount) Now keep in mind that includes Weak Nino's and we are going to have the strongest on record by 15%, so maybe it's still really hard to get a dry Winter but I thought the analog composite was interesting (since we know how the dry pattern has been present for the past 2 years, minus wet July and Aug which has been the decadal trend 2017-2026).
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