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I'm expecting .25 or less here. That NW wind is strong today

Not liking the northern cutoff. Often sharper than modeled

Great call. Last two weeks have sucked. Early next week looks good.

WB 12Z NBM. Wet Saturday at the beaches.

In my area where ~1” fell on April 26th (during the week ending 8AM on April 28th), which is more than the normal week’s ~0.75”. I don’t see how that area really worsened a category between 8AM on April 21st and 8AM on April 28th with that week being wetter than normal. I’m thinking that some reports came in between 8AM 4/21 and 8AM 4/28 that were based on conditions prior to 4/26. Keep in mind that 8AM 4/28 was merely the deadline to get reports in that would be reflected on today’s map. For example, I’d think that the 4/28 deadline would incorporate reports coming in on, say, 4/25. Also, some reports submitted could easily be based on conditions from 1-2 days prior to the submission. So, reporting lag would have two components to consider. I’m not saying no area in reality worsened. Your area is a good example of one that really did worsen from what you’re saying. But your area’s worsening doesn’t represent the entire SE. This isn’t meant to be a criticism as reporting lag can’t be prevented…it’s totally normal. And I’m not at all trying to downplay the drought, which has been and still is a bad one overall.

December 2015 was unique since it was the first time we had a strong MJO 5 with a super El Niño due to the record WPAC warm pool up until that time for such a strong El Niño. So those two forces combining created the historic +13 December which was warmer than many Novembers were around NYC. Luckily, a great blocking pattern emerged leading to the historic snow event around NYC in late January. Plus NYC had their first below 0° reading since 1994 on Valentine’s Day. We had continuation of this much stronger WPAC warm pool theme for the 2023-2024 event. But more spread out winter warmth across the season than one month being some much warmer than the others like in 2015-2016. No great blocking pattern in 2023-2024 so the seasonal snowfall was a disappointment for many. With the strongest MJO 4-6 activity in January and February. This was the 2nd time that such a strong El Niño had robust MJO activity in this region due to how far west the record +30 C warm pool extended in the Pacific. https://phys.org/news/2021-04-distinctive-mjo-super-el-nino.html#:~:text=Observations show that the western,MJO-related convection was enhanced. Observations show that the western Pacific MJO activity was strongly suppressed during the peak phase of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 super El Niño events. However, during the crest of the 2015/16 super El Niño event, western Pacific MJO-related convection was enhanced. When compared to the previous super El Niño events, the warm SST anomaly, or change from average, of the 2015/16 El Niño was located more westward than during the other two extreme seasons. Additionally, no significant cold SST anomaly was detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the moisture and air temperature tended to increase in the central-western Pacific during the winter of 2015/16 unlike the previous super El Niño events.

DCA NYC BOS ORD ATL IAH DEN PHX SEA -1.2 -1.1 -0.9 -1.8 -0.7 +0.3 +0.6 +1.4 +1.7

It was for sure

For much of NC even with the rain we were still below what a normal week should produce this time of year. So it makes sense that t worsened. I can guarantee that the 0.82” I've received THE ENTIRE month has done nothing but worsen the drought. This is our 4th in last 8 months I have recorded less than 1” of rain at my house for the entire month. Some areas saw normal rainfall as would be expected for a week in April and that would stabilize the drought but you won’t see improvement until you see above normal amounts.

So we are at the equivalent of Memorial Day 2025?

Joes Mama?

I’m not saying that I expected my county (Chatham) to improve a category. But the bulk of my county worsened a category despite 0.5-1” of rainfall in a good portion of it. I believe reporting lag was the reason for a good portion of that worsening of a category. Some other counties in GA as well as in AL, SC, and S NC were in a similar boat. Example: 4 counties in NE GA. It’s not just my county. This isn’t meant to be a criticism as reporting lag can’t be prevented…it’s totally normal.

Yeah "shutout" is relative. If Stowe VT gets, say 80" in a winter, that's considered a shutout for them. I would consider 2015-2016 basically a shutout for the new england.

Did pretty well here with .68" rainfall last evening into the overnight. Total for April: 3.68". Not bad but 60% of that total came this week. Month prior to this final week of the month was very dry.

Wow that was taken just after 9pm... not even late. They sure tear things up easily when they want to, I keep my head on a swivel in the tree fields but especially this time of year

.26 rain and fucking cold. This sucks.

Farmingdale only starts in 1999 so several warmer rankings prior to that would be missing. Islip finished 12th warmest. The strong onshore flow kept LI cooler in the rankings than NYC. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012-04-29 49.8 0 2 2010-04-29 49.0 0 3 2025-04-29 48.6 0 4 2024-04-29 47.9 0 5 1973-04-29 47.5 0 6 2023-04-29 47.3 0 - 2016-04-29 47.3 0 7 1991-04-29 47.1 0 8 2002-04-29 47.0 0 9 2021-04-29 46.4 0 - 1977-04-29 46.4 0 10 1976-04-29 46.3 0 11 1985-04-29 46.1 0 12 2026-04-29 46.0 0 - 2022-04-29 46.0 0 13 2020-04-29 45.8 0 - 1998-04-29 45.8 0 - 1995-04-29 45.8 0 14 2008-04-29 45.7 0 15 1999-04-29 45.6 0

Popes brain a box of rocks

You still haven’t apologized for your fake criticism of my guess that NYC, LGA, and JFK would struggle to reach 50” of snow which I made several years back.

My theory for this is that it's hard for 1" of rain to be enough to drop a county a whole category when much of the state has been in some form of drought for 3+ months... FFC mentioned in their discussion today that even the 1-2" in store for central GA Saturday will not "put much of a dent in the drought." I think we will need at least multiple days/weeks of good sustained rainfall to improve by enough to drop a category. This image posted on FFC's Twitter I think does a nice job explaining... we would need over 10" in a month to get back to near-normal. Regardless, I do expect some improvement in next week's update.

I have learned the hard way to not mock alternative viewpoints. I know I teased Chuck about the -PDO following strong El Nino push back, but that was just because the data is supportive of it right now. He could ultimately be right, but we will need to confirm that posthumously...hence my sarcasm.

Anyone seeing rain/drizzle? Up here in wretched Hazleton today, and of course I'm getting rained on. If there's one place I hate, it's Hazleton. The weather is always shitty in one form or another up here.

No one was referring to NNE. Complete pattern change Mr NNE (actually (CNE) coastal boy 2026-04-14 80 48 64.0 15.3 2026-04-15 84 51 67.5 18.4 2026-04-16 86 53 69.5 20 2026-04-17 74 49 61.5 11.6 3 2026-04-18 55 46 50.5 0. 3 2026-04-19 53 37 45.0 -5.6 2026-04-20 52 35 43.5 -7.5 2026-04-21 49 34 41.5 -9.8 2026-04-22 47 34 40.5 -11.2 2026-04-23 68 44 56.0 3.9 2026-04-24 59 40 49.5 -2.9 2026-04-25 53 35 44.0 -8. 2026-04-26 59 42 50.5 -2.6 2026-04-27 68 37 52.5 -0.9 2026-04-28 66 40 53.0 -0.8 2026-04-29 65 45 55.0 0.9

Well, everything was initially "bunk", until it wasn't. I have no issue with it, as long the presenter is transparent about it. He admitted it's a pioneer concept, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's incorrect.

I'm going to make up stuff too and then say you wont find much (probably because its bunk).