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If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck... https://x.com/yconsor/status/2092623985091494311

I would imagine that is not good for east cost snow lovers?

This sounds incredible.

I know you're typically pretty good about providing links for things that you share on here - do you know where this info came from? My understanding is that solar is a tiny fraction of total energy generation in New England with gas and nuclear making up ~80%. This link, with the most up-to-date info pegs solar at ~4.3% and renewables in total at 13%: https://www.iso-ne.com/about/key-stats/resource-mix I'm inclined to think that Massachusetts as a whole would use more than 13% of all energy production in New England (assuming they used all the renewable generation alone). I'd be curious to see how that math works out if it's accurate.

It is quite wild that Dolly is the next named storm as has been said. It’s virtually impossible based on history and I realize we still could get her within a few days from Invest 96L, but what if the rest of the season were to be so amazingly quiet that we end up not even getting to Dolly?

Yes the CFS has been forecasting a rapid collapse starting as we go through especially the 2nd half of Dec. But it hadn’t earlier forecasted that most of August would be this flat.

Whats the timing 9f storms tomorrow? Mainly afternoon?

There’s no evidence that this Nino won’t heat up more. I don’t think anyone said that here. If they did, I would have said they were wrong. I expect a resumption of solid warming shortly. But there’s plenty of evidence that it likely won’t heat up as much as the really wildly strong models have/had been showing because of the nearly flat most of August vs the model consensus having progged another sharp warning in Aug similar to July. They’ve been way off this month.

Shear is low and is forecasted to remain low on the area of the Bahamas, where the SSTs are also around record highs. If a system can get there, there's no reason why it can't blow up like Andrew or Dorian did in that area.

Most likely. Gfs went from a strong atlantic low to nothing like the euro. Hurricane season sucks in El Ninos. Maybe homebrew storms but dont count on it.

I think it's based on climo and an east based nino. Granted who knows what will happen-not many saw last year's persistent cold and 200% of normal snowfall for the northeast.

Not a good sign when everyone is punting 30% - 50% of winter in, checks notes, August.

In all seriousness…the videos coming out of Nepal are unreal. Legitimately unreal. There’s very little you can do in a situation like that. So sad.

The cruelty of the upcoming pattern is getting a taste of fall with football on the horizon but getting hells front porch at the actual kickoff next weekend. I’ll be in Boone. Idk how you folks who go down to Clemson, Columbia, Raleigh or Greenville survive but I respect it!

I need to consider a snowmobile now that I have SLK as an option in the winter. A lot of trails up here.

Commie

I made a winter purchase yesterday too! Bought a new sled for my nephew, he has an August bday but is obsessed with sledding. Never too early to prepare

Didn't the CFS forecast the El Nino to collapse as we enter winter?

I've noted/hypothesized an aspect that's similar to that... Heat in the summers appears to be inducing a resonance feedback that is favoring ridging around the windward sides of continents. Some ridging is favored in these regions at all times, due to basal westerlies encountering boundary layer resistance as the flow encroaches land. It "piles" backward against ... en masse the flow rises over, then deflects N over time, due to upward motion then being worked over by Coriolis. This base tendency is the Perennial North American Pattern, which features a modest ridge over the west that settles out to a quasi trough/nadir as the westerlies are leaving the eastern continent. But the heat expands heights; then superimposed that over the PNAP, the two are in resonance (constructive) feedback). Similarly this is found around Europe to the Urals. The intense/intensifying seasonal heat flux due to CC is then adding to this synergistic resonance. It's quite intuitive and convincingly related to why heat/ridging retrogrades so rapidly whenever we see it episodically blossom over N/A ... Why also western and mid Europe are cooking with increasing frequency during warm seasons... This idea appears to be a deeper dive where the aggregation from these quadratures becomes the CGT bias field. Higher heat enhances drying, again ... more constructive feedback. So the CGT is created to atone for the observable biases.

For results of July. Please post below September Forecasts

The front comes through on Friday, anything tomorrow would be pre-frontal trough related. Hudson Valley to the CT River will see scattered storms develop during the afternoon, perhaps evolving into multiple lines but there won't be much in the way of west-to-east progression, will be more southwest-to-northeast so probably will see some flash flooding where storms train...probably within the CT River Valley and Naugatuck Valley (should start mentioning them too for future reference because of the rate they flood in these setups).

Yesterday tomorrow had potential, now it’s mainly a dry fropa. Pass