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Another frosty morning in the Valley.

Nothing canceled here-we had it in 2020-but people did firepits at the end of driveways with a bowl of candy-no contact...seems like the firepit tradition has hung on ever since

February 2025 was the exception when the Southeast Ridge verified much stronger than the long range forecasts.

For sure.

Awesome!

Yeah they had this problem the last 2 winters. Every week 4 map defaulted to a -PNA and SE ridge.

back in the day of the Killington Peak double chair (90s), I can remember skiing in the morning at the top of the mountain on Columbus Day weekend, with re-loading at the mid-station; and then when the mid station ski line got too long, download to the base, grab the mountain bike, and headed back up the double

That’s why we have regional forums for regular weather discussion. You’re location averages double the amount of snow as urban coastal NYC. So I have no doubt you’re not getting shut out. 97/98 came as close to being NYCs first shutout as you can get. In fact the only 1”+ event fell during the spring and melted in hours. .

43.7

just get a chain saw and go to work - no need to wait for "that" storm IMO, any tree that can fall on your house and cause enough damage to results in an insurance claim needs to go don't get me wrong, I love trees and have hundreds on my property, I just don't love the tall ones anywhere near the house

It will be interesting to see if the new PBC EPS weeklies actually can do better than just defaulting to climatology after 15 days.

2011 wasn't cancelled here 2020 was for covid

Halloween getting cancelled in 2011 and 2012 was perfect timing for me, as I was in my final 2 years of college at Drexel and not a kid. I really despise when college students go all out for Halloween, but I feel bad for the kids that missed out on 2 Halloweens in a row.

Appreciate the research!

The most similar that I found to what the Euro Weeklies are forecasting late Oct-late Nov were 2016-7, 2009-10, and 1979-80 with the last two being El Niños: 2016 La Niña: similar late Oct/early Nov though late Nov weaker 2009 El Niño: not as weak late Oct/early Nov and weaker mid Nov vs 2026 (dip ~2 weeks later than 2026) 1979 El Niño: not as weak late Oct but early to mid Nov similar to 2026 although late Nov much weaker vs 2026

Yes, we’ve had tons of rain. I’m glad we dry out for a while. The break/boredom is welcomed.

Records: Highs: EWR: 80 (2021) NYC: 80 (1969) LGA: 80 (2021) JFK: 81 (1969) Lows: EWR: 31 (1974) NYC: 31 (1974) LGA: 32 (1972) JFK: 33 (1974) Historical: 1770 - An exceedingly great storm struck eastern New England causing extensive coastal damage from Massachusetts to Maine, and the highest tide in 47 years. (David Ludlum) 1770: An exceedingly great storm struck eastern New England causing extensive coastal damage from Massachusetts to Maine, and the highest tide in 47 years. 1835: 6.0 inches of snow fell at Ft. Snelling, MN. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1940: The earliest snow greater than one inch in Washington, DC, fell on October 20, 1940 with 1.4 inches and the second earliest greater than one inch was October 30, 1925 with 2.2 inches. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) (Ref. October Snows by Herb Close) 1952: Central Park in New York City had their earliest measurable snowfall with a half inch falling. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) 1983 - Remnants of Pacific Hurricane Tico caused extensive flooding in central and south central Oklahoma. Oklahoma City set daily rainfall records with 1.45 inch on the 19th, and 6.28 inches on the 20th. (17th-21st) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Cold arctic air invaded the Upper Midwest, and squalls in the Lake Superior snowbelt produced heavy snow in eastern Ashland County and northern Iron County of Wisconsin. Totals ranged up to 18 inches at Mellen. In the western U.S., the record high of 69 degrees at Seattle WA was their twenty-fifth of the year, their highest number of record highs for any given year. Bakersfield CA reported a record 146 days in a row with daily highs 80 degrees or above. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. In California, afternoon highs of 96 degrees at Redding and Red Bluff were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Forty-nine cities reported record low temperatures for the date as readings dipped into the 20s and 30s across much of the south central and southeastern U.S. Lows of 32 degrees at Lake Charles LA and 42 degrees at Lakeland FL were records for October, and Little Rock AR reported their earliest freeze of record. Snow blanketed the higher elevations of Georgia and the Carolinas. Melbourne FL dipped to 47 degrees shortly before midnight to surpass the record low established that morning. Showers and thunderstorms brought heavy rain to parts of the northeastern U.S. Autumn leaves on the ground clogged drains and ditches causing flooding. Up to 4.10 inches of rain soaked southern Vermont in three days. Flood waters washed 600 feet of railroad track, resulting in a train derailment. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data) 1994: 1994 The rampaging San Jacinto River (20 feet+ higher than normal) caused 8 pipelines carrying various petroleum products to rupture near Houston, TX; the river ignited in flame and smoke which shot 100s of feet into the air. More than 500 (mostly minor) burn/inhalation injuries. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1996: New Englandwas in the middle of a four day nor'easter which dumped tremendous rainfall totals, especially over eastern sections. 19.19 inches of rain fell at Camp Ellis, ME. 13.03 inches was recorded at Newburyport, MA. Portland, ME set a new all-time 24 hour rainfall record with 13.32 inches. Other rainfall totals included 17.21 inches at Sanford, ME, 12.23 inches at Portsmouth, NH, 11.21 inches at Bedford, MA, and 7.89 inches at Boston, MA. The storm tapped moisture from Hurricane Lili, far to the southeast over the Atlantic, which contributed to the excessive rainfall. The nor'easter also produced high winds along coastal sections. A wind gust to 81 mph was recorded at Little Compton, RI. One person was killed and total damage was over $50 million dollars.(Ref. Wilson Weather History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

I'm not well versed on Pacific or Indian Ocean teleconnections. Just trying to learn how the PNA/PDO/EPO all mesh together. Interesting. I'm happy to see some kind of persistent western ridge in Canada. At least that mitigates the Pacific Puke to some degree. Thank you for the insight. I appreciate it.

57 / 37 continue with this amazing stretch for this time of the year. Warmer day today with max into the low 70s in the warm spots otherwise mid - upper 60s. Mainly dry and the onshore keeps it cooler on and along the coast and warmer inland. Thu and next Mon look like next warmer days low - mid 70s in the warmest spots otherwise 60s and clear very california like stretch. Outside another cutoff low it looks mainly dry through the 30th. Overall near / slightly above normal beyond there mainly by a majority of days +2 to +5 with a few at or -2. Nie opportunity to dry things out.

Not mad at it. Keep November misery away for as long as we can.

This is a better depiction of the lake level without previous years shown. It is on the way to the lows we saw over the summer once again and this week at least looks completely dry.

Low of 28F, as we speak, at 300 feet ASL, Connecticut River Valley.

My expectations are low, but not that low..I'll take the over on both of those seasons for snowfall at my locale..especially 2023...1997 will be close. There are pretty clear differences that have been discussed which should cause this season to behave differently than those ones later in the season. That said, early season will probably be worse. I expect a quick recovery after that block...

Yup, this is the point, and of course there is variability depending on what trees there are, or that one has in their area. If you have alot of, or predominantly oaks where you live, it’s gonna be dull for the most part. If you have more maples and birches…then it will be so much more colorful. It doesn’t mean the foliage is a dull year(of course it can be some years), just means you don’t have the colorful trees in that area.

Colder at MHT than MWN this morning