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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    MJO isn't always the best tool because it doesn't show split forcing...check the Homollover (sp?) Anyway, the ridging this month in the NE has not been El Niño like....sure, you could blame the lack of correlation in the summer, but most other developing intense Nino events did not have it, and this one is developing faster. I think it's also important to mix in actual observations with the array or tools.
  3. CoastalWx
    Nope he loves to go fishing. Raised him into a man.
  4. LakePaste25
    I must be missing something because I don’t see a ton of MC competition. I agree the N Pac is not exhibiting your typical response but I think it could be due to something else.
  5. canderson
    The next five days are going be @Bubbler86 summer chamber days. Low 80s, zero humidity, no rain in sight.
  6. H2Otown_WX
    When I worked as an observer at MKE, I could see lightning quite a ways south of Chicago sometimes so probably around 130 miles as well.
  7. Herb@MAWS
    6 PM LWX Regional Weather Roundup has Frederick reporting a temperature of 102 with a heat index of 104. It may be time to get that thermometer out of the sun.
  8. BooneWX
    It’s deceiving. I was under 2 showers that seemingly looked meh on radar and got an inch already.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, both can be true.....Nino is epic in the tropics, but we still have some MC competition in mid latitudes.
  10. btownheel
    Radar looks pretty anemic, frankly. .
  11. weatheruser
    We deserve this upcoming weather stretch!
  12. FXWX
    I'm at ~1,200 ft in Burlington CT and twice say lightning flashes over Rutland VT... About 135 miles away.
  13. donsutherland1
    A cooler regime is in place and will remain in place through the remainder of July. Highs will generally reach the lower 80s through much or all of the remainder of July. The warmest spots could reach the middle 80s on occasion. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.82°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -17.36 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.144 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.6° (0.9° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  14. H2Otown_WX
    It'd be funny if Judah Cohen comes up with an index to correlate forest fire smoke to a snowy and cold winter.
  15. Brian5671
    The next 4 days look incredible. Time to turn off the AC for a few days
  16. olafminesaw
    Don't you worry, the snow line will stay firmly north of the mason Nixon line all winter long
  17. Maestrobjwa
    Agreed, lol I am in favor of them just standing pat or perhaps consider Rogers and Ward for trade. To me we are not going to get anything for Adley that will help the organization anytime soon--and the injuries are only gonna lessen the package, imo I mean for your former 1:1 it better be in your Top 2 prospects and that's just a start.
  18. katabatic started following July Discobs 2026
  19. katabatic
    A beautiful evening to see a free Fleetwood Mac knockoff band at Wisp. 70 with a breeze - heading to the upper 40s tonight. Yes please and thank you.
  20. guinness77
    Can already feel a significant difference in the air.
  21. Today
  22. Stormlover74
  23. SJonesWX
    Did daddy-o @CoastalWx lock you out of your house again?
  24. cleetussnow
    Maybe he’s smart enough to block you. He's a generous soul so unlikely he will.
  25. vortex95
    I recall in the summer of 2019, a friend of mine was driving S on I95 getting close to 128 junction, and he could see DSNT LTG in CB tops to his S. Turns out it was about 130 mi away over the ocean! Not often you see LTG that far away in New England, minus higher mtn tops. So I bet if it was night, you would have seen LTG in these CB tops! Farthest I have ever seen LTG in New England was about 15 years ago driving N mid-evening on I93 at the 495 junction. Saw a dull orange flash on the N horizon. Cell was close to BML, so about 120 mi.
  26. BooneWX
    Already at an inch of rain
  27. stormy
    I feel your pain.
  28. vortex95
    More NW flow! And talk about the mean trough position remaining in the E! The 12z ECMWF gets really amp'ed in 7 days. So all sorts of convective possibilities, even if it is just big rains/lots of LTG! Type of pattern is that if we can get any TC development off the E Coast, odds are we can get at least its tropical moisture here. Some areas did quite well for rain ydy. Max I could find for the DC area was 3.75" at Highland MD. For SE VA where the biggest rains were fcst, ending 7am EDT, max of 6.00" at Kilmarnock VA (more fell after 7am). So the HRRR did ok, and RRFS overdid it, esp. over SE VA, but at least it had the location of the max rainfall correct. Still getting a feel for the RRFS. I've heard not so good things about it here and there, but it is still non-operational, so maybe it will be adjusted/tweaked by the time it goes operational in Oct.
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