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Well this looks bad? I'm horrible at fully understanding surge forecasts... wish it could be overlays with minor moderate and major flood thresholds.

Warm seclusion/weird hybrid

In the past, I’ve literally put easy up tents over my plants for these situations.

This storm might be warm core. Getting interesting.

This is from stony brooke storm surge research group. Not much surge for Orient it would appear.

disastrous timing for plants currently flowering ..

Man this would've made an incredible winter storm! Hopefully it sets up for the winter.

Most models seem to have the system max out sometime between 00z and 06z Sunday. So here's the 12z Euro ensembles at 06z Sunday. First image standard physics based EPS. Second image AI EPS. Personally still thinking this occurs somewhere just south of Montauk (~50-100mi). Be interesting to see what guidance does tonight.

Hopefully we get a repeat in February

First call on the track

18z RRFS really cranking this thing this weekend. 18z NAM also following suit .

18z RRFS model really cranking the “non-tropical” storm off the Mid-Atlantic this weekend and even has it make “landfall” over Delaware Bay. Will be very interesting to track .

RGEM also shifted SW. If this trend is real (too soon to tell given how globals look), it'll really eat into the precipitation totals for northern areas.

What's interesting here on the east end, the tide gauge in orient had a rather low, low tide level at 3:53. Lower then the last 2 low tides. Winds are less today though so dunno exactly

No thread yet with only the NAM being the only one really being onboard.

They are all working on the cf products but they just told me and one of the TV mets that Hey guys were are still working on it. There are some changes to water levels and its complex coastline that we are dealing with. No changes to coastal flood benchmarks. Expecting a new CFW out within the hour.

Nam may be doing Nam things along with the other hi res. It’s also putting a low where there is no low currently. It’s northeast of where models have. Not sure if that means much yet.

Then it’ll just bring that bitch up into RI in a run or two. We’ve seen this NAM movie before.

3.7 total event

Where should we put the weekend storm stuff? Here or a thread!

Very much agreed. Factoring in ground saturation, heavy rains, and a full moon is no bueno for many