All Activity

Ensemble mean through 123 is looking diesel.

Pretty sure I recall that guidance for 1-23-2016 was in the 10" range for NYC up until 24-36h before event, it only took a slight northward tick on the track to bring the max snowfall axis north several degrees of latitude. I think there would be a tendency for models to overcook the depth of cold in the air mass arriving over the Great Lakes region Friday-Saturday, I am seeing some thickness values that could easily be 6-12 dm too low, in this case a weakening of the cold air barrier is your friend rather than being a problem.

Easy to post clickbait out of market. They'd be held accountable in market. Though speaking of model consistency, there was a storm a long time ago modeled a week out.. Even with those much less advanced weather models. March 1993. Let's NOT do that again though, and hell no to the ice version!

I need a whole pack of marlboro southern cuts. .

Been reading these forums for over 10 years but never posted. Found this account today I made back in 2014 and logged in. This is my first post on it haha. Excited for this storm!

There you are…Jesus I was getting nervous

The sleet line usually ends up 50 miles north of where the gfs shows it. That maybe exaggerating the totals in NC and southern VA.

No way

I think WRAL has a good map for it. I think it could be a little further south at the southern border of Wake.

Good also to see Saturday so cold so the ground is frozen ahead of time. Avoids having to shovel and inch of slop at the bottom of the snow column.

Greensboro, NC with a casual 4x annual snowfall average in a single event

18z GEFS big run incoming....

Stop. Final warning.

This is just a monster storm. Like two and a half to three day event. Somebody is really going to cash in if this thing comes a little more north.

It's genuinely probably because the GFS is a terrible model. I'm not even joking.

Yep. NBM, courtesy of CWG's article

Any further word on the 18Z GEFS? I take it they at least held from 12Z and look solid?

Okay, then what would make it jump like it did withoutany new data? I'm trying learn.

I don’t smoke but I need a cigarette

There was that one GFS off run (hmmm - kind of similar!) with it south... only to turn around and bring the big stuff... MAN! Remember the radio show before that one! DT was on it when he was kind of tolerable... LOL!

0z going to have a cutter to Detroit. But glad it and the AI shit out all tha bad chili from 12z

Disconcerting that it’s such an incredible change

I don't think those things are going to get sampled until tomorrow.

The 1/20 18z GFS showed better phasing as both the northern and southern branches of the jet stream were better aligned. The result is that snowfall got into the New York City area unlike with the 12z GFS. The 12z ECMWF, GGEM, and UKMET continued to show a snowier outcome for New York City. Historical data for 6" or above Washington DC January-February snowstorms also argues strongly against a shutout in the New York City area. Within the next day or two, model skill will improve and confidence in the solutions will increase. Key factors to be resolved: 1) Jet stream interaction/Degree of phasing 2) Strength and position of Arctic high and confluence There remains a risk of suppression and/or a sharp cutoff of precipitation on the northern edge of the storm. However, New York City and its suburbs still remain very much in the game for a moderate or significant snowfall, especially when the more skillful guidance is considered. The 1/21 0z runs will provide additional insight.

early afternoon Sunday should be snowing 2pm or so!