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Good morning! In preparation for this weekend, I'm pleased to offer the official Snow-Lovers Poll! Please respond with your answers so that we can better understand how the mind of a Snow Lover operates. Thank you for your time!

The 12z NAM got a look at the amped euro solitons and is def getting its warm layers loose in the bullpen right now lol. But in all seriousness usually the NAM is way amped So today it’ll be interesting to see if it bites on the amplification.

CTP has this gem from this morning’s discussion Details will become increasingly clear over the next day or two, but now is the time to prepare for a potentially significant winter storm that will affect parts of Central PA Saturday and Sunday.

Lets be honest though, the thrill factor with the kiddos just went from a solid 6.8 with just snow sledding to a 9.1 with an ice pack on top. This is the difference between a minor bump or bruise falling off the sled and becoming a human missile capable of shattering mailbox posts. ZR on top of IP on top of SN is about the best setup you could ask for in terms of fast sledding. It packs perfectly.

Yeah I think it's just frustration at losing the once in a generation snowstorm potential. I find myself chasing the high of the "big one", that I experienced when I was a kid. But I know at the end of the day it will come ago and melt away and my life overall won't be better or worse as a result of what happens. Snow is a gift at the end of the day

The HP coming back is good for us correct? .

Have to go further into the run.

That loss of hp was seen across several models at 0z...and now poof...it is back on many. Trying to dig through this and see what the trend might be and what caused the iteration overnight.

Hopefully no lingering affects.

It already happened when the GFS lost the storm yesterday. Feeling pretty good that we all see a foot from this. Maybe to hyped. But thats how I feel.

Can’t really ask for better than this

6-12hrs

Had a low of 12

Great to see the good trends for us continue through 6z. Hopefully the amped up trend stops & stabilizes today. I think most of CTP is in a great spot for the best storm at least since Feb 1st in 2021 when MDT got near one foot. Let’s watch the trends & see what the NAM & other short range models start spitting out on the next couple of days.

At this point i definitely think we get some ice. Question is how much snow before the changeover? Euro is by far the most amped solution. Will it adjust any at 12z?

maybe I'm looking at it wrong, but it looks to me like the HP was a little stronger, (if a little north) at 0z:

@Ji do you have any historical data on when we usually see a major shift in the global models that typically lead to a fundamental change in snowfall forecast for our region? 48-72 hr range? 72-120 hr range? 120-200 hr range?

It was a brutal stretch here.

FWIW, the 6z RFS model which John uses is in the 6z GFS camp(shaky, shaky camp). It also handles the hp to the northwest of the system differently than the 0z Euro, but similarly to the 6z Euro. What the Euro is doing is basically settling into a seam between to highs to the north, one over New England and one over Montana. IF the Montana high is strong and bridges over to the New England high....the system slides on across. The 0z Euro completely lost the hp to the northwest of the storm...returned at 6z. I don't know. I am guessing that we are getting better sampling of the northern features as they get closer to us.

Back a few pages ... I've only seen the 00z GFS and GGEM solutions - those are pushing that it was always the 29/30/31st window for the more important of the two. Again, the 26/27 is/was index valid, but the sweet range was ^ ...

Bamwx doing live broadcast on storm now.

When you looked in a mirror did you see tblizz?

I’ve been out to lunch. We in play here?

That is what I am hoping for in my backyard. And front yard, too. Would love to get a good thump of snow to begin with and if it does change hopefully it will be a mix of snow and sleet with no freezing rain.