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I wasn't signaling anyone out....general question.

We won't have any MC this season and the forcing still extends into the region SSE of Hawaii...which is where guidance has consistently place the highest precip rates.

Right....intraseasonal variability, which proves my point....it's always going to exist to some extent and there are folks acting as though it will not.

Through October 22 - 2026 is warmer than usual but not close to a record. County mean for Oct 1–22: 58.9°F, from 19 stations. That makes it the 34th-warmest of 139 Oct 1–22 periods that had at least 2 stations reporting. The anomaly composite ranks it lower, 53rd of 139 (+1.0°F against each station’s own long-term mean). The gap is mostly because the network has changed over time, which the composite corrects for, so the naive rank flatters 2026 a little. Compared with recent years, it’s warmer than 2019–2020 and 2022–2025, but behind 2016 (59.3°F), 2017 (62.0°F) and 2021 (62.4°F). The record is out of reach. The warmest Oct 1–22 on record is 1941 at 64.7°F, then 2007 (63.8°F) and 1914 (63.0°F). Getting into the top 10 would take about 61°F, more than 2°F above where we are now.

Untrue.

Psst! you may not realize but those are altered adjusted temperatures not the actual temps!

too bad Yellow Medicine County, Minnesota (Population 9,477) does show a warming trend rather than a lack of one, which offsets any lack of a warming trend shown by Chester County, Pennsylvania

That great deep data is indeed publically available for all to use with the detailed data sources for support and verification. I hope it helps! Thanks for the support Cobalt!

Ray, I personally don’t think it is all that big of a deal that ATL is projected to be ~1.8 F above normal for the FULL Oct of ‘26. I didn’t mean to imply that. After all, Oct of 1991 was almost as far AN with it at 1.6F AN. Of course he was just referring to Oct 1-22, which came in ~2.2 AN vs the normal of 66.4F. But even that isn’t a strong warm anomaly.

i believe 15/16 the forcing started West in December. But we had a further west starting point (MC —> Dateline).

December it was shifted west vs. Feb. The vortex getting backed up and tucked into Alaska was more favorable than over the GOA. Yea I know, there were other factors such as solar. But this added to it.

There's fossil fuel companies out there like Exxon Mobil who would stand to profit in the trillions if it was figured out that the burning of their products does not contribute to a rise in global temperatures. Insurance companies, the agriculture industry, etc, would benefit massively if it was found that the globe isn't warming. You should submit your data for Chester County, PA to some sort of scientific panel to help benefit the whole of humanity. Once they learn that Chester County, PA shows no statistical warming, the entirety of the globe's warming trend will be discounted entirely.

ehh I don't think that's how that really works. The overall scheme is much more complex than just "learning" from mistakes and misses. While its become apparent AI models are going to provide some tremendous value, at least in medium range forecasting, if we truly want to make a substantial leap with modeling we need two things 1) Superior computing (such as quantum computing) that is able to perform complex calculations at a much faster rate. Another key aspect about quantum computing is they will be able to handle and perform even calculations that are way more complex than what supercomputers can currently handle 2) The ability to initialize current state better (the Euro has been worlds ahead in this) and part of this goes into quantum computing and ability to handle and perform challenging complex equations. 3) Another challenge is putting knowledge, or our understanding on physical processes into mathematical terms to be computed. There is always going to be some sort of disconnect because we don't have a true 100% knowledge of every process which occurs during storm evolution (example: why some supercells with hooks produce tornadoes while others don't) so we can't 100% model that accurately. And models just can't learn that without us being able to feed it that information first.

Not speaking for anyone in particular but ... I 'sense' the posts are implicitly dancing around an ominous look/portents for winter.

Quick question....we have established that the climate is warming, so why is it news that this was the warmest October in a super El Niño?

Then how was it more favorable earlier in the season if the vortex was so far to the east? I had well over a foot of snow right before xmas... February had no method of cold delivery into the CONUS in 1998....I don't feel like that will be the case this during that particular potion of the season, though it will in the mean. Forcing is also stronger and more expansive not only to the east, but to the west. I feel like people are getting too carried away with the magnitude and orientation of El Niño and are far too linear in their thought process...obviously it's going to play a huge role around the globe and will thus impact our sensible weather to a significant extent, but it's not at all the only factor....a few of you guys are acting like nothing else exists and it operates in a vacuum.

Low of 41 yesterday, 42 this morning. Beautiful day here. Currently 72/58 at almost 3:30 pm

I've answered this question, and your highly cerebral response was "I don't give a shit".

Ya, but other than a tropical system getting up here this time of year….or a bonafide winter weather event(which are both rare in October), I’ll take this great autumn weather over a breezy rainy day.

Has it weakened at all from its super typhoon status?

Where does October sit for above normal temps? It feels very warm, no need for heater at all and usually always. We need it by now.

boring weather ..

100! That's my fear if we have a total fail...that's probably how.

Chinese algorithms trying to keep the Taiwanese offguard.