All Activity

Really no misses in those clusters...except the cutters! lol

Some fun ensemble members from the AIFS EPS and GEFS. BTW, the GEFS has been spitting out big dogs for about 3 runs - holy moly.

The eps definitely trended towards a more amplified solution did it not?

Going to be a fun night at solider field with flakes flying!

Not sure I've ever seen a larger discrepancy between an Op and its ensemble mean (although the Op posted here is Kuchera, so it's likely inflated).

I was referring to the snowfall amounts. I think you would agree that temps were not 60 during the event.

Board wide/state wide snow paste is all we need!!!!!! Half of what the gfs showed with those cold temps. Yep I approve. Make it happen! Forgive me gfs for all those bad things I said about you in the past.

Here you go again with “trending” like you always do. If we listened to you, we’d have 150 inches of snow by now. What I posted is 100% correct. The new EPS, GEFS, GEPS and EURO AI runs speak for themselves. I encourage everyone to go look at all the snow means on those model runs at 10:1 ratios

Wow. Impressive. I am by IAD right now.

Just emptied a bit over 2 inches from the gage. Looks like the heavier rain has shifted SE.

Way too early

I'm still not uncanceling my winter cancel post until we reach somewhat close to seasonal/average snow totals. I'll believe it when I see it

Yep. Welcome to the area! This is the biggest event here since the end of October. .62"

People do realize that making a thread on an "event" early has no bearing on how that event pans out, don't they? It only impacts how posters react to the outcome from that event. I like early threads, simply because it makes it easier to keep all the relevant posts on that event in one thread, as opposed to having them dispersed throughout other long range posts. Just my $0.02.

This is wrong. Euro AI and eps trended better. Stop posting or know what you are posting.

Worlds apart for (my?) storm. The energy in the flow overtop the ridge has a different orientation on the Euro than the GFS and flattens the ridge some, resulting in minimal interaction/ phasing further west. Without that and still a positive tilt that far east, its surprising the Euro is even close- offshore at our latitude but actually scrapes the coast of the Carolinas. EPS supports the Op run for the most part- offshore but a glancing blow for the coast. Close enough, and still 9 days out.

I know. Im just having fun with it since someone posted how improper it was to use that term. Its a hobby board and yes 100% more user friendly.

And higher heights upstream as well

I know this is tongue-in-cheek, but I will say that kicker is a more layman-friendly term...Like to me it's makes sense because I can visualize what it's doing and why we need it to not do that/do much less of it.

This is not your best work. D-

1.14" event total

The shortwave divebombing in from east central Canada/ through Minnesota at hour 84-96 needs to phase with the plains shortwave.GFS does this,Euro doesn't.And everything a tad more west.

no it is certainly not

Correct. The EPS and GEFS for sure are not as enthused as the operationals and the GEPS definitely isn’t enthused. Even the EURO AI was much less robust than the op EURO

3"-5" that hangs around is better than 8"-12" that's gone in 3 days.