All Activity

Landfall Destin officially just now.

I will be surprised to see any sustained hurricane force winds over land anywhere.

A Dec to end of Feb would be a good run, once we hit March even a good storm starts to melt quick. Ideally I'd like a storm in the beginning of Dec and have a pack til the beginning of March.

Check this out as of 9PM EDT at Destin with center just offshore likely just to their SE based on NE wind: DESTIN LGT RAIN 71 70 96 NE39G67 29.08 FOG That’s 984 mb.

let's not go overboard. looks like a weakening mid-range cat 1, at least to me

Mesonet station XSRS Santa Rosa Sound DB127 recorded sustained winds of 84 mph with a measured wind gust of 116 mph. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/?by=wfo&wfo=MOB&sts=202610100045&ets=202610100045&settings=1110100

When you say elevated interior are you thinking catskills and southern greens are included or do you really think it'll be a shutout for everyone south of Stowe and less than 2k ft asl. lol

Coast is due for a big march. Every single march since 2020 has been a complete ratter. Total shutout on any sort of wintery activity.

Looks like landfall will be on Miramar Beach, which means Destin will stay on the left side. If there is any surge, it looks like it would be directed to some areas that have state park land, which is a plus.

000 WTNT64 KNHC 100057 TCUAT4 Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 800 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...WATER LEVELS RISING RAPIDLY ALONG THE COAST AS DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING SPREAD INLAND... ...800 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... A NOAA National Ocean Service water level gauge in Panama City Beach, Florida, recently reported a water level of 5.4 feet above mean higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area. A wind gust to 102 mph (164 km/h) with a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) was recently reported at Pensacola City Hall. SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 86.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Camposano/Reinhart/Cangialosi

They verify more often than they do not

Last half hour has been the worst, definitely close to hurricane sustained with some higher gusts. .

Which is it's experimental forecast

I’ve seen several write ups talking about how elevation could make a difference this winter. Why is that? It seems to me that in the winter location (eg, which side of the storm you’re in) makes a lot more difference than elevation. Heck I’m usually warmer than the lower elevations in a cutter.

Scott, Ray, Ginx... have met them all. Truth be told I'm a transplant from MA. Why I moved, don't ask! Deep down shhhh, I live for a good snow. First tropical system after moving lost power for a week...that sealed it for experiencing named storms.

Upper atmosphere is what matters. And if you were at some Elevation…that too.

Got caught in a mixed rain/snow shower today in Franconia Notch. Could see legit flakes flying around while the temperature was in the upper 40s. Bizarre. I’ll remember that when it’s 32 and raining this winter lol

One SVR LSR report pet peeve of mind is "wires down." A LTG strike can do that! Just over time, it seems issuing warnings have become looser and looser as to criteria. I recall last summer, they issued a flash flood warning for the DC metro even before the line of tstms got to the metro! Given a line can quickly weaken as to rainfall rates, that is putting the wagon in front of the horse..

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092349.shtml?gm_track#contents Today I learned you can zoom in a region or state specific zone to get a closer look at the cone track of the hurricane thought I would share .

https://www.threads.com/share/BAU6zWmE9q/

You and @CoastalWx have so much in common it sounds! Want to know how much a snow weenie he is? Last winter, when he *finally* got 6" of snow in a storm after an excruciating 4 years w/o one at his house, he goes "it looks VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL out there!" I never thought I'd see those two words used together!

PDS Flood Emergency for Coastal Okaloosa County, .

Look at the disparity from sustained to gusts. In a minimal HU, NHC will say "max winds sustained 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt" Standard gust factor over water. However, over land, that difference becomes much larger!

I generally agree with you, especially being in the mid-Atlantic where a severe warning is verified on a 35mph gust that takes down a dead tree branch, but I don't think that this one matters too much. I might argue that 115mph sustained is a too high of a marker for an EWW. That's an EF2 tornado sustained! Hopefully this cam stays up. https://maps.app.goo.gl/5GBwpLHVo3nQd6CH8

Sounds like @CoastalWx response! It's not snow, so MEH!