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more people die from cold exposure per year than heat exposure, there isn't much to disagree about with that what we aren't going to agree on is that AGW is going to result in a neutral or net reduction in deaths, perhaps from believing that fewer people dying from cold exposure will more than make up for the greater number of people dying from heat related deaths ? And this isn’t even taking into account any decreases in food supply attributed to changes in the locations of arable land and longer / more severe droughts disrupting water supplies.

Our continent just seems too wide for the global wavelengths in summer to be able to get one of your Sonoran airmasses up here before the “ridge runs out”. Get the ridge more on our side and the Bermuda high going and then the airmass just becomes GoM soup and we thermodynamically are limited on the warming potential…but we make up for it with 97/77 type days. We basically have to time it right with brief strong mixing like July 2011 when that prefrontal trough mixed out the dews during the morning and then the CAA lagged until evening so we had a 6hr window with torched mid levels, strong mixing, and downsloping. And obviously any flow from the east side of our meridien is tainted too.

A less hot pattern would mean more tstms in NW flow w/ your REQUIRED EML! LOL. Be careful what you hope for!

Although US heat related deaths are rising and should continue to rise from GW, it’s true that far more people have died from cold than from heat (>10:1) and thus GW should in theory result in a net of fewer cold/heat related deaths there for a good while into the future. And this isn’t even taking into account any increases in food supply attributed to longer growing seasons and increased CO2 fertilization effect. So, CC clearly has some benefits regardless of the often emphasized harms that include rising sea levels, increased extreme flooding incidences, and more powerful tropical cyclone peaks/heavier rainfall from warmer temps holding more moisture and slower moving (on avg) TCs: Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Burden in the US From 2000 to 2020 The Yale University Institutional Review Board approved this case series Findings This case series of 54 223 429 deceased individuals found that both low and high temperatures were significantly associated with mortality burden, with low temperatures associated with more mean annual deaths (45 992) than high temperatures (3414). However, the burden from high temperatures increased by 53% from the 2000-2009 to 2010-2020 study periods. The annual mortality count attributable to low temperatures increased by 7% between the 2000-2009 and 2010-2020 study periods, from 44 278 to 47 551 annual deaths. However, the annual mortality count attributable to high temperatures increased by 53%, from 2670 to 4091 annual deaths. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2841063

Just under 2" of rain from Monday and yesterday.

Western Europe is now five of these nuclear synergistic heat bombs since 2003, compared to our zero spanning the same years That being the case when there is a codified positive correlation tele connector between eastern North America western Europe This is somewhat odd

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DZ-BVyWRCWR/?igsh=MWdyeHVhZ3BjczRueg== LOL

and East

A low here of 51 beautiful degrees at the end of June! Current temp is only 67! I know this NW wind has been dry but wow have the temps been very cool.

TBH, I hope it does setup right over the mid-South and we end up on the eastern periphery. You could bet we would get some EML plumes advecting in at times along with some MCS opportunities...but yeah that all may get shunted towards the mid-Atlantic

models doing manufacturing physical reasons to shunt tho -

The heat and humidity is coming...buckle up, settle in, and enjoy.

Bandwidth throttle with acatt on hiatus

No sh*t. It's also fair to point out that there were far fewer records from the stations with long periods of record. Both things can be true.

Same here since this morning.. got 4 cloudflare 502 error message in past 10 minutes. Says bad gateway and that the problem is with the host website @dendrite

mm.. I think the 12z GFS is on crack with that west atl cut-off out of now where like that. 00z CMC was an outlier with a sharply back calving trough too, so we'll have to see. we were slated for a 2 days of significant heat until this run, tho. Euro's never been on board. Looks like this trying to miss NE a least excuse imaginable. Again...while the rest of the world broils to 2nd place i hottest ever. Wonder when cold enthusiasts around here will stop getting jerked off

Let's save it for the winter.

The EPS and AIFS all are on board for Heat. Euro op all alone

Records: Highs: EWR: 103 (2025) NYC: 99 (2025) LGA: 101 (2025) JFK: 102 (2025) Lows: EWR: 49 (1932) NYC: 52 (1932) LGA: 53 (1947) JFK: 54 (1965) Historical: 1816 - The cold weather of early June finally gave way to several days of 90 degree heat in Massachusetts, including a reading of 99 degrees at Salem. (David Ludlum) 1924 - Six men at a rock quarry south of Winston-Salem, NC, sought shelter from a thunderstorm. The structure chosen contained a quantity of dynamite. Lightning struck a near-by tree causing the dynamite to explode. The men were killed instantly. (The Weather Channel) 1946: 11.72 inches of rain fell at Mellen, WI during a 24 hour period. This is the greatest 24-hour precipitation total ever recorded in the state. There was flooding on the Bad and White Rivers. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1951 - Twelve inches of hail broke windows and roofs, and dented automobiles, causing more than fourteen million dollars damage. The storm plowed 200 miles from Kingmand County KS into Missouri, with the Wichita area hardest hit. It was the most disastrous hailstorm of record for the state of Kansas. (David Ludlum) 1952 - Thunderstorms produced a swath of hail 60 miles long and 3.5 miles wide through parts of Hand, Beadle, Kingsbury, Miner and Jerauld counties in South Dakota. Poultry and livestock were killed, and many persons were injured. Hail ten inches in circumference was reported at Huron SD. (The Weather Channel) 1957: On the basis of meteorological data and a radio report from a shrimp boat, the Weather Bureau in New Orleans issued the first advisory on a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche at 10:30pm. The depression was located 300 miles south of Brownsville, TX. The storm would become Hurricane Audrey, moving northward over the next three days and striking near the Louisiana/Texas border causing extreme damage and loss of life. 1957: Palm Springs, CA hit 121°, equaling their highest temperature for June (6/26/1957 & 6/29/1994). 1960: A tornado at Schenectady, NY destroyed 16 homes with over 300 homes suffering major damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1967: Sheridan, WY fell to 32°, their latest freeze on record; the high temperature the previous day was only 47°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1975: An Eastern Airlines Boeing 727 crashed at JFK airport in New York City. 113 of the 124 people on board the aircraft died. Researcher Theodore Fujita studied the incident and discovered that the crash was caused by a microburst. His research lead to improved air safety. The tower never experienced the microburst, which was held back by a seabreeze front. The plane crashed 2,400 feet short of the runway. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1980: Not even a desert location. For 11 straight days (6/24 - /05) Wichita Falls, TX, set daily record high temperatures; 7 days had highs greater or equal to 113 degrees. Its all-time record high of 117 degrees was set on the 28th, and its all-time record high low of 85 degrees was set on 7/02. 1987 - Thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes in eastern Colorado. Baseball size hail was reported near Yoder, CO, and thunderstorm winds gusting to 92 mph derailed a train near Pratt, KS. The town of Gould, OK, was soaked with nearly an inch and a half of rain in just ten minutes. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Forty-three cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Valentine NE reported an all-time record high of 110 degrees, and highs of 102 degrees at Casper, WY, 103 degrees at Reno, NV, and 106 degrees at Winnemucca, NV, were records for the month of June. Highs of 98 degrees at Logan, UT, and 109 degrees at Rapid City, SD, equalled June records. Lightning killed twenty-one cows near Conway, SC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a warm front produced severe weather from Colorado and New Mexico to Kansas and Nebraska. Thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes, and produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Wood River, NE, and hail three inches in diameter at Wheeler, KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: 3.50 inches of rain fell in 28 minutes at Scranton, ND. There were also 1.5 foot drifts of marble size hail. Front end loaders were needed to clear the streets. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1992: A tropical depression in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico produced periods of heavy rainfall over southwest and west central Florida from this date through the 30th. Four-day rainfall totals (25th-28th) of as much as 25 inches were recorded, with 8 to 14 inches common. 70 homes were destroyed by floodwaters, and the combination of winds, waves and tides led to significant beach erosion and undermining of seawalls in some locations. Two flood-related deaths occurred on the 29th - a man drowned in his flooded front yard in Manatee County and a man was crushed to death between two gasoline storage tanks dislodged by floodwaters at an auto service shop in Charlotte County. All-time record flood crest on the 29th at Myakka St. Park on the Myakka River. Flood waters did not fully recede in some areas until the end of June. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1996: A woman was checking the circuit breaker box in her garage when lightning struck. The ensuing power surge slammed the woman against a vehicle, knocking her unconscious for a short period of time.(Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 1996: Severe weather pounded much of the Mid Atlantic Coast with Washington, DC especially hard hit. Numerous reports of tornadoes, funnel clouds, damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain were reported. Tornadoes were reported in Upperville, Middleburg, Manassas, Centreville and Fairfax City, VA. There were numerous reports of downed trees and damage to structures across Northern Virginia and the Eastern Shore area of Maryland. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1997: Charleston, WV, finally hit 90° for the first time this year. The last 90-degree day was back on 5/19/1996, totaling 400 days in which it stayed below 90°. That is their longest stretch this century between 90 degree days. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1998: In Grayson County, VA about 3.5 miles northeast of Whitetop, at 5:15 pm, Three youths were injured by lightning. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 1998: An unusually damaging wind event occurred during the late night and early morning hours in southwestern Iowa. Winds were sustained at 30-50 mph for over an hour at several locations, including Creston, Shenandoah, Clarinda and Red Oak, IA. Shenandoah, IA reported a gust to 80 mph. Two factors are surmised to have caused the event. First, light showers had moved through the area left lots of hot, dry air aloft between 4,000-10,000 feet. When rain fell through the dry air, it cooled, which made it heavier and resulted in strong downdrafts and high winds. Secondly, winds between 600-5,000 feet were quite strong and the momentum of these winds dropped to the surface causing higher winds. The wind event was accompanied by dramatic rises in temperature. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2003: A large F4 tornado destroyed the community of Manchester, SD. It was part of a swarm of nearly 60 tornadoes that touched down across eastern South Dakota. An armored camera placed in the path of the tornado by the National Geographic Society was blown nearly 500 feet and destroyed. Very little usable video was recorded. Meanwhile, researcher Tim Samaras deployed a measurement probe just 70 seconds before the twister struck it. The probe measured a pressure drop of 100 millibars, the largest ever recorded. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2010: The maximum temperature today at the Richmond International Airport was 102 °F which not only broke the record high temperature for the date, but was close to the 104 °F record maximum for the month of June set in 1952. Only three June days have been hotter: (June 30, 1937 103 °F) (June 19, 1944 103 °F) (June 26, 1952 104 °F ) June 2010 also had 19 days of 90 °F or hotter temperatures the record was 20 in 1943. The Richmond International Airport reported the mean temperature for June was 81.1 °F which was a new 113 year record. This breaks the old record of 79.2 °F set in 1943 and was a +8.7 °F departure from average. June had 8 new daily temperature records and all were for heat. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC) 2011: The 2011 Souris River flood in Minot, already predicted to be the biggest in recorded history, was predicted Thursday to get even bigger. According to the latest estimate, there will be some 29,000 cfs moving through Minot by Saturday (Ref. Grand Forks Herald Newspaper) 2016: June 22-24. Part of a severe weather outbreak that produced over two dozen tornadoes from Illinois to West Virginia, up to 10 inches of rain fell in just 12-24 hours on June 23, setting off West Virginia's third deadliest flood. Twenty-three people lost their lives. 2025: marked one of the most intense heat events ever recorded across the New York City metropolitan area as a historic heat dome pushed temperatures to record and near-record levels. Newark reached 103°F, JFK hit 102°F, LaGuardia climbed to 101°F, and Central Park officially reached 99°F, with all sites setting daily records and several establishing or tying their hottest June temperatures ever observed. The extreme heat was accompanied by unusually warm overnight lows, making it one of the most oppressive heat waves in modern regional weather history.

1. The Euro doesn’t peak before Dec, with a record RONI monthly of +3.1 in Dec vs current monthly record of +2.7 (1982): 2. But the CFS peaks earlier (in Nov) also way up at record levels for RONI of +3.2C. But then afterward, the CFS has by far the fastest cooling on record (I’m taking with a grain, especially because it’s the unreliable CFS) with it plunging to only +2.0 in Jan and +1.5 in Feb: 3. Due to a tendency for models to be a bit too warm with forecasts this far out, it wouldn’t surprise me if the actual RONI monthlies peak in the high +2s instead of low +3s. However, with the record warmest RONI month of only +2.7, a record warmest RONI is likely as of now.

Yeah, severe t-storm watch and then couldn't even see any storms from here. Today looks a little less hazy, I think.

Upper 50's @ noon with some light showers moving through over this way. Cool and damp. Looking forward to a real taste of summer next week.

WB 12Z model runs: note GFS has rain coming in Friday evening; RRFS and 12K NAM are nothing burgers (not shown); Canadian on board;

yeah I think saturday is overdone and will end up cloudy and mostly dry