Jump to content

All Activity

This stream auto-updates

  1. Past hour
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Stop interpreting this guidance in such absolute terms because it's just that .....GUIDANCE. No forecaster worth a damn should be ripping and reading it, but rather using it as a tool.
  3. 512high
    nice pic
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you actually look at the JMA model, it actually has the warmest pocket of water pretty near where the east-based composite has it, but it's extending the El Niño very far to the west so that it has more of a Modoki look. It's actually similar to 2023-2024 did, but the forcing is a bit east, so it's a Modoki El Niño forcing rather than MC. That to me is a bit harder to dismiss as "stock ENSO bias". Go and check out the June 2023 forecast and it looked different. the fact that the CANSIPS is doing the same thing adds to the intrigue. Now, do I think that the seasonal mean will look like that with an El Niño this strong? No, I don't...too much wamth too far east. But do I think that we can get a month to look like that in the back half of the season? You bet I do-
  5. michsnowfreak
    Exactly. Sometimes the difference between anamolies and absolutes get lost in the translation. A low snow winter in detroit is still snowier than a snowy winter in Albuquerque.
  6. michsnowfreak
    This is whats interesting to me. I fully expect a milder than avg winter here, as ive said multiple times. However, the fact that a few models are showing cold, and even the milder models aren't anywhere near a furnace, is a red flag for those (we know who they are) who assume super nino means super furnace. Remember, these same models are all showing the strong/super nino, and nino climo is already in these models, are not showing blazing warmthm
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's crazy how people are triggered by the mere mention of certain seasons as analogs....,most of us have been at this for like 20+ years, you would think at some point they would wrap their mind around how analogs are used. If you have noticed, any seasonal met worth a damn often uses an assortment of snowy, cold seasons AND warm seasons featuring a dearth of snowfall. Just because the forecasters deems a season to have enough value to warrant its' inclusion does NOT imply a replica season in its' entirety is being forecasted. The most glaring and detestable flaw I continue to see amongst weather circles is the inability to perceive any nuance, and constantly view everything as black and white. Social media isn't helping this issue, rather it's exacerbating it. The tweets that are engineered to draw attention to the 2009-2010 analog are the problem, but that clearly that isn't being done or implied here.
  8. mitchnick
    Won't be a record year, save the highest elevations. No one has said otherwise. But it's incredible how just posting model progs can cause such a stir. But as I said in my post to Michigan, no seasonal forecasts I've seen are flat out furnaces in the east. That and the surprisingly cold forecasts by at least the Cansips and Jamstec make me at least optimistic for a few snow chances considering the AN precip along the coast by most models.
  9. NEG NAO
    compare the 12Z NAM to the 18Z NAM and you will see it has no idea how much and where the rainfall will occur IMO using models this far out will not verify. It will be all about now casting tomorrow
  10. Baum
    Still grilled. I don’t think the heavy stuff is coming for awhile yet.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    The northeast doesn't need a cold winter for decent snowfall, but I agree that it won't be cold. 2010-2011 was actually one of the best seasons on record up here.
  12. Torch Tiger
    645 pm or so
  13. Damage In Tolland
    WTTE. They said 70’s thru mid July and blue
  14. vortexse93
    While I have not looked at anything for tomorrow in detail, it could be an under the radar type of day for those in northern AL into the TN Valley for a potential chase day. If I was closer and/or had the day off tomorrow, I would take the gamble to chase, but unfortunately, I am not in that position to chase for that setup. On the side note, would love to be in CO/NE/KS this week to chase landspouts given that the pattern for tomorrow looks to be favorable for it once again across that area, maybe one day I will see one. Date: 6/21/2026 @ 6:00 PM CDT
  15. Chinook
  16. Today
  17. Chrisrotary12
    Can we make it 4 for 4?
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm a believer in utilizing reverse conditions. The dataset is limited, so historically La Nina's look different than the reverse of El Nino's (they both aren't warm in the east when strong). Some of that is because El Nino's tend to be more east-based, but there is still discrepancy in the reversals.
  19. raindancewx
    The truth is you guys in the Northeast probably won't get too much snow. In your favor - 1) Very wet conditions are likely. 2) Some blocking is likely later on. Not in your favor - 1) -PDO is a negative PNA tendency. I expect PNA finishes positive in Nov-Mar, but not by much in a few of the periods. There won't be a whole of lot of shots at big nor'easters when it is cold. 2) -AMO trend pushes storms to the South. I had storms miss me (in the desert) in 2010-11, 2009-10, 2011-12, and 2018-19 to the South - same applies in the Northeast. 3) Three cold winters in a row is rare for the Northeast, and should not be the expected outcome. 4) Sort of looks to me like a -WPO in the Fall which will build up cold in Canada, and then it gets warmed up and dispersed in winter when it flips later on.
  20. Chinook
    12 tornado reports in Illinois so far
  21. dendrite
    Only 0.03” here. Still one more cell trying to drop in from the NW. 3k and rufus dump up here
  22. MJO812
    Hes a troll
  23. MJO812
    Your track record predicting long range forecasting is atrocious. How did your winter forecast turn out last winter ?
  24. cyclone77
    2.17" so far. Nice soaker.
  25. Damage In Tolland
    You’ve gotten hit multiple times already
  26. backedgeapproaching
    More storms rolled through, cleared out nicely this evening for grill, steak and some beverages outside.
  27. Santa Claus
    i am humble enough to pay tribute to my betters
  1. Load more activity
×
×
  • Create New...