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Euro slightly south. Dusting to inch for NYC with slightly more in CNJ.

Likely the last flood of the pond this winter here on Cape Cod. What a stretch of cold…snowstorm from 3 weeks ago that dropped 15” still very much OTG. Since January 24th (22 days): 19 days with high temps below 33°F 18 nights with lows below 20°F 9 nights with lows below 10°F

debian ftw

It’s the twilight zone in here today

He must be on diaper duty. Sounds agitated.

lol amazing

Aren’t you AOA climo to date?

It does have some potential. If it doesn't pan out, we're probably in "Better luck next year territory"

97-98 was a huge El Nino, then we were followed by 3 La Nina's, 2 Strong Nina's. Huge El Nino's have been reversed in the following 3 years. Something interesting to ponder. Is it because of these strong El Nino states that we are getting multi-year Nina states in the years that follow? It's been a decadal pattern though, yeah, starting after the 97-98 Super Nino. Some think it's because of the low solar 2001-2020 that we hadn't seen that low since the 1800s.

That date is my last analog date so let’s buckle up. I like the angle of the cold

Chuck is like Spock. He's very smart and rational, but he's always such a buzzkill.

Wasn’t that the huge El Niño in 98 and things do seem different since about then ?

Well yeah. And they almost all sucked ass.

Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. It should be 33.3%.

I think the southern hits over the past decade are Nina based Chuck. We have been stuck in a never ending cycle of watching the south get hit and then getting skipped while the Eastern Shore and occasionally NE gets hit as well. I know everyone is worried about a Nino. I am not. It is time to break the cycle of suck. Yes I am in a better spot to succeed in a Nino than the cities. But the cities have failed as well for almost a decade at this point. We need precip to target our area again. And I will take my chances with a wound up southern stream that is actually capable of cooling the column. There is nothing normal about the past 7 years of weather. Nothing at all.

Nice cold shot on 0z GFS. Dry, but one more dip into Winter

Brush your car off expectation, hopefully good. Plowable, will likely be disappointed.

Well, I locked the thread, some asshole @Rjayunlocked it. I take no responsibility.

Outright rooting for torches in February on a board full of cold and snow lovers.

Final call: pasty car topper

I love snow, but 4 months of cold for flurries more 6x so far this year is not worth it lol. I love being outside, having the windows open and stuff. I love the Spring. GFS looks cooler though. After Feb 19-20, looks like another decent cold shot thereafter. Kind of keeping up with the theme of the Winter so far.

Never knew you were a heat miser Chuck, lol

This past 15 day run following the mega sleet storm down here was pretty dang epic (deep winter wise) .... It could've been better with the Carolina storm just to our south... But without the sleet bomb it would have been a disappointing winter with the potential that we had...

1-3” will be a nice little refresher. But I’m satisfied with this winter due to prolonged cold, prolonged snowpack and a 10”+ storm here. More snow is a bonus. Yes, may not get a 12-24” this winter, but those are rare.

Backdoor front Feb 19 on 0z GFS, keeping us in the 40s. Let's see what the Euro shows. GFS not really a good model.