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This should be over for W CT before morning . Maybe leftover shower. ENE may linger into the morning but even there it winds down tomorrow pm

For me . The rain was desperately needed

2.89" here now. Rain died down but is picking up a bit again. 3.64" on the radar estimate not sure if im low on my totals

Models just don't do well with setups like this in general. Everything is dependent on the exact placement of outflow boundaries with respect to terrain. Any marginal error in timing, placement, strength of cold pool, etc will result in a completely different evolution of these storms

Looks like cloae to .65 near my house. Definitely north of the best action.

The downpour in Somerset fell apart and radar is pretty quiet now. Looks like 1.06" is gonna do it here. Would've liked a lot more since we're in a severe drought, but at least it was enough to give everything a good watering.

6 inches since last night at my station in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn. My little bit of lawn won't be brown too much longer!

I understand the frustration, but it is kind of a darned if you do, darned if you don't situation. If that 4" of rain that quickly fell west of Baltimore yesterday was over a city or a major roadway, there would be no questions about the veracity of the Flood Watch.

That and the topography out there. A combination of both likely the case. Good ole Mount Airy to Woodbine!

Not great weather for the pool, but I was able to mow the lawn and the contractor is getting his work done in the attic today

When you understand what the models strengths and weaknesses are in the long range, then you can start to make sense of what they are trying to say. So we start with what we know about the models and work from that starting point. A model strength is accurate ENSO SST forecasts once past the spring predictability barrier. The ECMWF ENSO SST forecasts with previous super events were actually pretty good from July 2023 and 2015. So chances are increasing with each model update that this will be the strongest El Niño event on record using a metric like traditional ONI anomalies and absolute SSTs. The current SSTs are already ahead of all the previous super El Niños to this point. The long range temperature forecasts for both the 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 super El Niño events were significantly too cold. The 500 mb forecasts provided some skill but the location and the magnitude of the ridges were more expansive with weaker troughs. This has been a common theme regardless of ENSO over the last decade. The areas under the ridges had temperatures which greatly exceeded forecasts. Plus there were one month intervals in the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 super El Niño events when the Indio-Pacific warm pool was strong enough to drive the forcing outside the typical El Niño regions. This will be the first time with two super El Niño events only three years apart. It will be both a big sensible weather event around the world and a climate event. Since each super El Niño event since 1997-1998 resulted in a big jump in global temperatures to a higher baseline. June set new all-time SST records for developing El Niños in all Nino regions except 1+2. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii All-Time June SST records in bold YR MON NINO1+2 ANOM NINO3 ANOM NINO4 ANOM NINO3.4 ANOM 2026 6 25.94 2.82 28.33 1.71 30.19 1.22 29.17 1.44 2023 6 25.63 2.50 27.88 1.26 29.55 0.58 28.57 0.84 2015 6 25.32 2.19 28.07 1.45 29.88 0.92 28.90 1.18 1997 6 26.12 3.00 28.13 1.51 29.23 0.26 28.82 1.09

Power came back around Noon, it’s been out since the 4th. I have a full house generator so it wasn’t an issue. Just had no internet and couldn’t even make a phone call or send a text but that came back as well. .

It's a miracle. Thank God it was after the holiday weekend

+1

Oh look, cells popping in western HoCo for the third day in a row lol. Maybe a little micro scale feedback going on with wetter ground?

I hope you’re right. We desperately need the rain here. I’m not convinced this is a widespread thing east of CT. A lot of model runs over the last few days have had a CT soaker and kind of tapered it off into southern RI. I could see this ending up as a few pulses of downpours where we end up around an inch

yeah this goes all night and into the morning. also note the band over LI beginning to move north...

Pouring here in Lake Grove by mall. Seems like flood warning is needed as ponding from earlier rains everywhere. My area in Setauket is out of electric too since midnight and have been driving around looking for dry ice or even ice and sold out until i found several bags at a Speedway but after hours driving around.

The MEI for May/June was +1.5. How does this compare to past years? 1997 +2.3 1987 +2.1 2015 +1.9 2026 +1.5 Also, the MEI warming from AM to MJ was 1.2, which is 2nd fastest to 1997’s 1.6. The MEI warming from MA to MJ was 2.1, which ties with 1997 for the fastest. @snowman19 @40/70 Benchmark

I think some folks are getting ahead of themselves, and thinking it’s over shortly. As Jerry said…just like with the winter storms.

Yeah but nothing near the widespread 4-6/5-7" that was floating around on some of the guidance. And the overall flooding risk seems relatively low...I don't think the moderate was necessarily needed by the WPC. This was a long drawn out steady rain (and kind of in chunks). Will be worse off to our south. Definitely a much needed rain for sure but overall this was below a much more concerning flooding risk

I suspect, but I can’t stay with certainty that the forecasting accuracy has gotten far worse for a place like the Lehigh Valley. I could be talking out of my rear, but I just wonder if overreliance on computer modeling eliminates the way that local human meteorologist would take into account other factors, such as local elevations, microclimates, stable airflows, etc.

Radar seems to be filling in a bit and that I-84 weenie band has legs

In all fairness, Lots of us south of Hartford in CT are gonna end up with 3-4” plus if this goes all night. I realize there’s quite the cut off north of CT boarder…but South of that it’s adding up.

If you looked at radar, you can see how the storms were retrograding in from Lake erie and moving at a snails pace. A much smaller and more short-lived one hit me yesterday and dropped 1.54" in 2 hours.