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There's not a single 12z CAM that has a handle on evolution of the initial MCS.

Scott is right about piss poor w.e. measurements in some of the big snow events. Slap on a few inches there. The last 20+ years have been really wet overall too and that has caused a bump up in the 30 years normals. Throw in a slightly dry stretch and the same period looks a lot drier now than it would’ve in the 90s. I’m not saying it hasn’t been BN in some areas long term, but I think lake and stream levels are better indicators. And don’t get me started again about 1” lawns.

Thick

97 at 12:30, how high will we go today?

Truth

Stream flow is low, but severe makes it sound like everything is drying up.

Swimming...

The problem is their methodology. If we have lower precip winter, they count as a negative. But in winter, all the precip it’s either going into the ground or to the lake and rivers, etc. Nothing is absorbing it. So it makes it look like we are El Paso but it’s just kind of silly if you asked me. It’s definitely been dry but extreme is kind of ridiculous. We actually had decent rain last summer too.

92/74/101. Mid summer feel

LI's of -9, solid low level lapse rates, and healthy CAPE. If only we had 30-40 kts of shear, we'd be cooking.

GRR AFD: The question is does the convection survive all morning and push across Lake Michigan during the mid afternoon hours. We will follow the HREF for guidance on this. The HREF weakens the initial convection as it moves towards or out over Lake Michigan this afternoon. This will allow the main surge to move in this evening out ahead of the main upper wave. If the first round of convection survives and spreads into Lower Michigan this afternoon that could modulate our event for the evening. We do not think that is going to happen.

There is about to be a massive warming surge….

94/73/103 right now. Days like today make me regret having a career working outside

Canton, Baltimore .... yuckk

Dews 75-80 now.....we sweat

91/72 at IAD currently.

90/74 ooof

I wouldn't include Saturday in the storm chances. Not only no chance of rain Saturday, but it's going to be low humidity with hardly a cloud in the sky. Looks like a perfect day for people that love summer with temps around 90 but pretty comfortable with the low humidity.

What are the changes? Not as big a threat?

The currently running 15z HRRR is showing much less intensity for the IL/WI border area regarding the first round of storms at Noon/1pm. Lots of yellow, but no reds & purples.

Something's not matching up. The ponds are nearly full in my area. That doesn't happen in extreme drought.

82/72. feels like summer

Records: Highs: EWR: 96 (2000) NYC: 95 (1973) LGA: 96 (1984) JFK: 93 (1984) Lows: EWR: 46 (1980) NYC: 46 (1972) LGA: 46 (1972) JFK: 48 (1980) Historical: 1842 - A late season snowstorm struck New England. Snow fell during the morning and early afternoon, accumulating to a depth of ten to twelve inches at Irasburg VT. Berlin NH was blanketed with eleven inches of snow during the day. Snow whitened the higher peaks of the Appalachians as far south as Maryland. (David Ludlum) 1842: A late-season snowstorm struck New England. Snow fell during the morning and early afternoon, accumulating to a depth of ten to twelve inches at Irasburg, Vermont. Berlin, New Hampshire was blanketed with eleven inches of snow during the day. Snow whitened the higher peaks of the Appalachians as far south as Maryland. The latest date for the occurrence of a general snowstorm in our period over northern New England and northern New York came in 1842 on the morning of 11 June. Zadock Thompson, a professor of natural history and the Queen City's longtime weatherman, commented: "Snow during the forenoon's boards whitened and the mountains as white as in winter." 1877 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, reached 112 degrees during a heatwave. It would have been the all-time record for Los Angeles but official records did not begin until twenty days later. (The Weather Channel) 1915: A tornado moved slowly northeast from southwest of Mullinville, KS, allowing people to reach shelter from this extremely large tornado. One entire farm was completely swept away on the edge of Mullinville, and many more homes were destroyed. As it moved northeast, eight separate funnels were noted at one time under the huge rotating cloud. Damage totaled $75,000 dollars. It was reported that three mules were carried two miles. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1947: An unusually cold late season storm system brought significant snow to Cheyenne, WY. By the end of the day, 4.4 inches of snow had fallen, and the snow continued into the 12th. A trace of snow fell at Denver, CO. They also set a daily record low of 34°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1954: A strong heat wave hit much of the Midwest. Chicago, IL set a record high of 97°. This began an 11-day run with high temperatures of 90° or higher. Two high temperature records were set during that period. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1972: FROST at Big Meadows, VA 31°, Blacksburg, VA 30°, Dulles, VA 40°, KDCA 47°, Naked creek, Virginia 32° . Dozens of locations in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England reported record chill thanks to Canadian high pressure. Muskegon, MI set a June record low of 31°. Locations that reported daily record lows included: Elkins, WV: 29°, Beckley, WV: 32°, Charleston, WV: 33°, Baltimore, MD: 40°, Dulles Airport, VA: 40°, Lynchburg, VA: 41°, Richmond, VA: 48° and Norfolk, VA: 53°. 1972 - Heavy showers brought 1.64 inches of rain to Phoenix AZ, a record for the month of June. (The Weather Channel) 1979: A heat wave continued across southern California. Daily record highs included: Riverside: 110°, Bakersfield: 109°, Fullerton: 101°, Long Beach: 100°, Santa Ana: 99°, San Diego: 98°, Los Angeles (LAX): 91° and Idyllwild: 90°. Escondido set a June record high with 105°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - South Texas endured another day of torrential rains. Up to twelve inches of rain drenched Harris County, and nearly ten inches soaked Luce Bayou, mainly during the afternoon hours. Thunderstorm rains left seven feet of water over Highway 189 in northern Val Verde County. Flooding caused nine million dollars damage in Real County. A thunderstorm at Perryton, TX, produced golf ball size hail and 70 mph winds, and spawned a tornado which struck a mobile killing one person and injuring the other four occupants. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thirty cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including El Dorado, AR, with a reading of 48 degrees. Canaan Valley WV and Thomas WV dipped to 30 degrees. Flagstaff AZ was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 30 degrees. Coolidge, just 180 miles away, was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 105 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central and southeastern U.S. during the day and night. Thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, including one which tore the roof off a restaurant at Bee Branch, AR, injuring six persons. The tornado tossed one car into the restaurant, and another car over it. Temperatures soared into the 90s across much of Florida. Lakeland reported a record high of 99 degrees for the second day in a row. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990: One of the most expensive hailstorms in U.S. history occurred as $625 million of damage was caused along the Colorado Front Range from Colorado Springs to Estes Park. Golf to baseball sized hail fell along with heavy rain. 60 people were injured in the storm. 1993: The first federal Disaster Declaration was issued for parts of Minnesota hard hit by the beginning stages of the Great Midwest Flood of 1993. By August, parts of nine states were declared disaster areas. The entire state of Iowa was declared a disaster area. The flood was the worst this century in the U.S. Damage totaled almost $20 billion dollars. More than 50,000 homes were damaged or destroyed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1995: Lightning struck a metal garage door in Franklintown, PA. A man leaning against the door was partially paralyzed for nearly a day. It was the 2nd time in the last 10 years the 30-yr-old man had been hit by lightning. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1996: Hail five inches in diameter fell 13 miles southeast of Mullinville, KS. There was a report of 10 head of cattle killed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1999: On this date through the 14th, several hailstorms occurred across Eastern Colorado. Hail accumulated to a depth of 12 inches near Colorado Springs, CO. The roof on a business gave way under the weight of the hail. Damage in the Denver area totaled $35 million dollars ($17.5 million dollars from auto claims and $17.5 million from homeowner claims). Areas hardest hit included: Castle Rock, Commerce City, Evergreen and Golden. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2008: A strong inflow of moist and unstable air into and over a surface warm front resulted in training thunderstorms and very heavy rain across parts of northeast South Dakota. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches occurred across much of the area resulting in widespread flash flooding. Many roads, bridges, and cropland were damaged by the flooding. In Milbank, many basements were flooded and/or received sewer backup. Some rainfall amounts include 3.65 inches near Milbank, 2.96 inches in Summit, 2.27 inches at Artichoke Lake, MN. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2010: Deadly flash flooding hit the Plains states and the Mississippi Valley during the first half of June, Highlighted by the tragic flooding that struck an Arkansas campground in the early morning hours of June 11- Six to eight inches of rain caused the Little Missouri River to rise nearly 20 feet in our hours, taking sleeping campers by surprise in Langley, Arkansas. Twenty people lost their lives. (Ref. Weatherwise U.S. Weather Highlights of 2010 page 7 )

I saw National Guard tanker trucks racing northward on I-95... They are heading to Tolland to water the lawns..

The breeze is the only saving grace to an otherwise sticky day