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Warm and muggy today, mid 70s in March. It's hard to remember it's still just March as we've had so many of these days this month. The NAO is very positive, but there has been a less than ideal 500mb pattern for very warm days this month (+EPO usually drives major March warm ups - the index hasn't been extreme this month).

60!

Happy Opening Day to all who celebrate. Go Sox!

Yes this is a definite concern for many of us. Hoping for a turn for the better in our weather pattern but who knows when that might be

Was lucky enough to catch several flashes during the April 2018 blizzard.

I looked at my temp about an hour ago and it was 67...and now it's already up to 75!

Today’s weather is incredible, but lol at these temp swings lately. Some consistency would be nice.

That sounds absolutely horrendous.

GWDLT. 59 and mostly sunny. Beautiful spring day.

Another stellar day so far, while we wait for potential thunderstorms later.

definately wine. i can only go by snow pack in my yard. last year the last trace was gone on 3/17. this year i still have some piles hanging on. also, last March averaged 2 degrees warmer than this March so far.

I’m drier than SNH. Makes total sense.

Warm season already underway there.

Latest NAO and AO predictions are showing it staying positive now. Expect the models to warm up.

Latest NAO and AO predictions are showing it staying positive now. Expect the models to warm up.

64 here

Absolute boning up here again. Have had maybe a few minutes of sun.

Pretty strong opposite correlation (-WPO) Sept-Nov 2025 Before +WPO Winter (opposite for -WPO) Clear pattern

Do you have an image from this past fall to illustrate how it lead the big -WPO winter?

Thats a pretty sensible demarcation, actually. Would give critical mass/ synergies to a couple "quiet" subforms, too.

Western Pacific and Indian Ocean seems to definitely lead Winter WPO, SSTA-wise.

WPO is the index I have struggled with the most......I went big -WPO winter 2024-2025 and it was EPO instead....this past season I went big -EPO and it was -WPO. N Pac is a PIA.

As we progress more into the Fall the Indian Ocean SSTAs are a good indicator of the WPO setting up for the Winter. Check out the early season lead though... Pretty strong May-July You can make an index with the N Pacific cold pool at -0.4 vs Indian Ocean and ENSO +0.5 and have a 80% probability indicator for Winter WPO.

If it were up to me, I would merge the Upstate NY/Pennsylvania/Philadelphia, and NYC into one region, and do it like this: New England - CT/MA/VT/NH/RI/ME NY/PA/NJ Mid-Atlantic - DE/MD/DC/VA/WV

I remember you telling me about the Indian ocean Aug-Nov being a good indicator of winter WPO...it looked strongly positive all summer and into the fall, before flipping drastically at the last moment. Looked kind of neutralish, but the WPO ended up strongly negative.