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You’re correct in that the NAM is more prone to exaggerated dry slots than the globals (such as the ECMWF and GFS). Even so, the physics still apply and is a definite cause for concern. It was also seen on the 18Z ECMWF, as well. In both cases, the dry slot was directly over my house!

Well, the NAM has a bias to overamp these things , so I’m hoping it’s out to lunch for now

That Nam run is just about the best run you can have for the RVA & VA Beach area… Everything just backfills perfectly & it’s not north enough to get more dry air pulled into it. Now if it could just actually happen like that .. lol

NAM and to some extent the Icon there continue to have me spooked, but man have we longed for times like these....

I fell asleep before our local 11:00 news last night. The 6 o'clock news had our highs for Friday (now today) at 46°. When (if) the moisture arrives, starting as light rain and then changing to snow when the cold air filters in. Channel 3 has us up to 2". Channel 9 a dusting to 1". Curious what they will be showing in a few minutes with the morning crew. 2" is not much, if we can manage to get that, BUT, with temps in the low to mid 20's for Saturday highs, everything should at least be covered white and stick around a few days. I'd rather have 2" on the ground a few days instead of those 4" snows that melt off within 4 or 5 hours. I'm still skeptical about losing what we might get to virga. Edit to add: our forecast low was 26°. We bottomed out in Ooltewah at 19° and currently sitting at 20°. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

The NAM has spoken and we must listen

RGEM is slightly north too, at least with the overall precip field. 12k NAM has 1”+ snow up to around Fredericksburg.

In simplest terms, it’s the result of the coastal low tracking farther offshore as it’s undergoing bombogenesis…where the deformation zone is positioned more to the north/northeast, favoring central/eastern NC and SE VA with high totals (10-20+ inches along the coast and inland). However, this setup allows dry mid/upper-level air to wrap cyclonically around the low's southwestern/southern flank from the southwest, creating a pronounced dry slot that intrudes into SE NC. The worst part of this particular scenario is that the dry air wraps in during the peak precip phase, leading to an abrupt transition from heavy bands (e.g., near New Bern/Kitty Hawk) to much lower/no accumulations in Wilmington and other SE coastal zones. That said, this is a common feature in these explosive coastal setups, especially when the low stays a bit farther east, as shown in that 06Z 12km NAM run.

Latest Canadian gets RVA into the game some. Though, like you mentioned, areas on the edge will battle that dry air.

6z RDPS

For those of you in the VA Beach area.. That’s just missing the RVA area but just a slight bump north would make all the difference in this run.. The build up just south of us is a good sign… I can’t tell if this moved more north from the prior runs but it definitely is putting out more precip in areas near the boarder & Va Beach

Dream set up for the triangle east. Honestly it seems like the consensus is reverting back to that area between Raleigh and Greenville being the jackpot, similar to what was being modeled earlier in the week with the low being closer to the coast. Regardless i think most of the state gets atleast 3 inches. Georgia and SC folks i'd be a little nervous though

*you’re

ULL is a bit more north and transfers earlier. I still think y’all will be fine in the upstate in the 3-6 range

6z ICON

Icon is acceptable

Thank you! Exactly what I was just talking about.. Wherever this ends up setting up is going to be key.. It’s a race between the development of the storm & the dry air … Still right on the boarder line at this point but definitely trending in a good direction at this point…

I'll be very surprised if surface temps get above 35 tomorrow in the central valley. Not that there is a chance of rain lol, just saying, some of these upper 30s progs don't feel right before the precip falls.

3k nam buts the axe in us :/ .

6z ICON is coming in drier, too

Yeesh. Why such a large dry slot compared to the other models? What is it seeing the other models aren’t?

Horrible…being that I live in the “screw zone!”