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Fwiw the Srefs looked like it would be good at the end.

The ICON has went from barely scraping far Eastern NC at 18z yesterday, to snow almost back to Charlotte at 06z.

6z Rgem a little better compared to 0z

RRFS and Icon

The Rufus shifted probably 90ish miles w with the precip field vs 0z. It was mostly hugging the counties that border NC, now the precip shield is to the Plateau.

6z icon much improved from 0z

The RRFS A will save us!

Final part Haha, I spent way too long on this to not put forth my pet theory regarding the 1960s. The absolute insane return periods for "luck" and just plain actual snow and it's correlation to some events has not been studied super well. I guess this is the sacrifice needed for us to get the winters we pray for. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Wish this was a lot closer and not the 84hr NAM, was about to be a nice hit!

Part 2 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Euro can be wrong also

Agree. Euro is most likely wrong here. Here is the Nam. Saturday and then Sunday.

I have a super long post that will take a few separate post. The snowfall in Harrisburg is driven by a combination of global atmospheric patterns and what we call "Timing Luck"—the localized, chaotic meeting of moisture and cold air that large-scale indices like the NAO and PNA cannot predict. Our analysis identifies "Luck" as the residual snowfall surplus or deficit left over after accounting for these global drivers. While atmospheric patterns explain about 6–9% of the variability, the rest comes down to whether individual storms happen to "phase" correctly over our region. The 1960s (1961–1970) stand out as a once-in-a-millennium statistical outlier where Harrisburg received a massive +110-inch "luck" surplus, effectively gaining nearly one-third of its total snowfall through perfect timing rather than just favorable global setups. In contrast, the current period from 2021 to 2025 has been characterized by a deep "luck deficit," rivaling the extreme snow droughts of the 1950s. Even when atmospheric indices are neutral or slightly favorable, we are currently underperforming our "expected" snowfall by over 5 inches per year. Our modeling shows that while the 1960s were a ~1,700-year fluke of extreme overperformance, the current deficit represents a significant run of "bad luck" where storm tracks have consistently avoided the Susquehanna Valley. For those interested in the deep-dive statistics, including the return periods for our luckiest years (1961, 1996) and unluckiest years (1980, 1998, 2023), please see the attached images for the full distribution and decade-by-decade breakdown. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

One or two more NW shifts would be nice. Webb keeps saying the Euro is out to lunch being so suppressed with really nothing in the Atlantic to keep it suppressed.

00Z AARP also looked like it would be an absolute nuke past 84. the 00z run, 6z is still coming out

Just saw that! 12z should be interesting!! .

A lot of folks were about to get NAM'D at 6z.

6z NAM looked like it would of been wild if it went past hr84.. deep south gets a snowstorm from it and about to move on up

Phew.

NAM is about to be an absolute behemoth.

0z EPS is actually real cold Jan 26-29

Big tick NW on GEFS. I don't see anything that would really keep this super suppressed. GFS is not backing down yet.

January? More like swampuary. Lfg!!

SREF at 03z is nw and gives most of the area from the western Plateau eastward .10 or more precip from 63-87.