All Activity

Give this recorded breaking (cc enhanced) Nino a chance to do its work. Not that I wish disaster on anyone but we have only just started. Ask the marine iguanas that are left (if any) how they felt about this event. .

Rain has ended here-let's see if we can get any sun later to destabilize.

I have always been and still am a huge advocate of waiting until November to issue a winter forecast. That said, this is one of the extremely rare cases where you don’t have to. The atmosphere has already tipped its hand. IMO the best analog for this winter is 1997-98, by far, despite the QBO not totally matching up. Maybe we get lucky this winter and time a thread the needle, transient arctic outbreak with a big coastal storm unlike 1997-98. IMO this Nino totally overwhelms everything. But overall, given the entire progression of this historic Nino event, its orientation and atmospheric response/coupling, that is how I expect this winter to go with the caveat being we may see a different snowfall result if we can perfectly time something up….there were a couple of very near misses back in Jan/Feb, 1998

Absolutely. We know it’s part kidding, and part reverse psychology too. We’ll have our chances, that’s for sure.

What is the best is like last year we can laugh at the DIT Scooter Brets of the forum. The Eyeores of the forum. Oh me oh my . Warministas calling for a complete torch record snowless winter are on record. Let the chips fall where they may. Love when Mother Nature says oh you think you know what is coming and whacks us relentlessly.

I remember the air conditioning having to be turned on at church that year at xmas mass

Weird peak area too!!! The two basins where you would expect peak intensity had the opposite. This is my favorite tc for long track .

Good advice. I’m calm now. We pace.

Nola's final track. What a beast

Enjoy today! Highs should reach the mid to upper 70's which is about 10 degrees above normal. A strong cold front will cross the region tonight with a line of storms during the evening hours. Temperatures will fall from the upper 50's at midnight to lows in the upper 40's by morning. Behind the front is some very chilly air for mid-October. Temperatures during the day tomorrow will struggle to escape the 40's across the ridges with low 50's in the valleys. By Sunday morning we should see lows in the mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will run well below normal through Monday before we return to near normal by Tuesday. We look to stay dry through the new work week according to the ChescoWx model. In weather history on this date in 2009 the county high only averaged 41 degrees...the coldest October 16th since records began in 1890!

Enjoy today! Highs should reach the mid to upper 70's which is about 10 degrees above normal. A strong cold front will cross the region tonight with a line of storms during the evening hours. Temperatures will fall from the upper 50's at midnight to lows in the upper 40's by morning. Behind the front is some very chilly air for mid-October. Temperatures during the day tomorrow will struggle to escape the 40's across the ridges with low 50's in the valleys. By Sunday morning we should see lows in the mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will run well below normal through Monday before we return to near normal by Tuesday. We look to stay dry through the new work week according to the ChescoWx model. In weather history on this date in 2009 the county high only averaged 41 degrees...the coldest October 16th since records began in 1890!

You could give 2 Eff’s or you couldn’t?

Also, went out and drove 30 minutes to the Rockfish Valley Overlook off the blue ridge parkway! Got an amazing sunrise knowing the valley's would be in the cloud deck.

Are we at the stage of the year where in order to get sun it needs to be hot and humid? Cool/grey...hot/humid/sunny. Eventually that'll flip where it's either cold/windy/sunny or gross/humid/cloudy....but we're not there yet.

I’m all for anomalies now. I’ve seen pretty much everything mother nature has for winter. I could give two effs about 2-4” events unless there was 2’ of snow otg. Give me something that leaves me in awe.

Of course my grid says I go to mostly sunny, hmm? We shall see. Time is ticking. oday A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thank you all. Agree that the 6z run really didn't go the right way... but, the 12z runs are interesting. They manage get a band of precip with lift from a deeper H5 trough and saturate the DGZ. Will need to monitor and if the 18z and 0z runs show it then I think it might be worth it. Wouldn't really be upslope, but just orthographic cooling of a band of precip which feels less risky to chase.

That sounds appealing, if the alternative is 43°-50° and bleh

Will be interesting to see if we can make it two consecutive years with elements of the winter pattern emerging in November.

I like snow on Xmas, but *unpopular opinion* one of my favorite Xmas mornings was 2015 when I watched my niece and nephews open gifts and then I sat out on the porch and had my coffee in the warm sun.

We’re really socked in east of the BR. Not sure that mid October sun can burn that off

Pace yourself. Letting a joke about a mid October freeze get to you will have you getting multiple stents before the solstice.

I would be all for Winters that are relatively torch, but leave room for a big dog or two. Best of both worlds. I don't like it when Christmas torches so it would be nice for those couple of weeks to be seasonably cold.