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Congratulations on the new baby and love the site.

At least the IOD has finally popped positive as long expected. This along with the rising PDO and resumption of the strengthening El Nino all points towards a different winter ahead than what we have seen for much of the last decade. I suspect warm and wet down here for most of it, with a window for some cold or snow sometime Jan or Feb.

Getting a little shower. Helps with the grass seed.

2.52"

Sorry on the slow reply, we have a new baby in the house so I've been pretty checked out. I am now doing some backend overhaul to clean up some bad coding from one of my AI agents but I will get the seasonal forecast on there soon if it didn't fix itself already. Anybody who has worked with AI knows what I am talking about when I say extreme tunnel vision in AI agents makes coding "islands" and if you don't manage it carefully it can get pretty out of hand. The PDO calculation is a little higher on mine, probably because I went to some effort to try to normalize out the global warming signal. It should at least trend up and down at the same rate as NOAA but have less of a negative bias.

Kids football on Duxbury we had a random lightning strike really close to the field . Scared the crap out of everybody. .

It was Deadmans Creek that flooded, not the entire Saugatuck. Still the worst flooding I've seen from a rainstorm there ever.

0.51". Table scraps Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

They tend to be pretty accurate with the big picture, as the MJO orbit is very predictable. Minor details, such as exact strength of the WWB, exact day (late sept or early oct) are more TBD and this won’t accurately predict that this far out.

Some crazy flooding over in Bloomfield.

Guess it rained a lot! Lots of flooding in my area.

I'm so f@#king sick of the heat. Feels like temp 105.4 WTF

The MJO continues to avoid the Maritime C and IO like no other time on record:

As predictable as the sun rising in the east.

Ended the event with 1.55" of rain here, nearly 1" of that came between 0600 and 0700. Welcome rain here after a dry week. Not looking forward to the muggy weather for the next 18 hours before the cooler, drier air moves in.

Per this the min of 3.6 may have already been hit. If so, that’s well above the worst:

ISP over 3"

Only .13 here & most of that was at the tail end this morning. Disappointing for sure, but thankfully it’s not Winter!

89F / 76 dew / 101 index. .52" overnight left the windows misty on the outside.

66F/ 1.06" still raining....

https://x.com/Eweather13/status/2099172404907872474

Ended up with only 0.90 inches of rain. 2.94" for the month.

It still looks to me like the heat ridge starts to break down just after the 20th. Models were just too quick w/ the initial look. Cosgrove(in his update) mentioned that the Lower 48 may well return to normal or even below for October. I have found the GFS a little better during shoulder season as it will spot cold fronts or cool downs earlier. Models really struggle during fall as there a lot of flux.I do agree that there is potential this could last into the 2nd or 3rd weak of October, but the pattern should run its course by the fourth week of September. Lots of ext guidance has the second half of fall with cool temps. Time will tell.