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Sorry, I don't have records of the NAM

I was on the mid-CT coast in 96 for the early Jan blizzard. Went into NYC for the day, and left with a forecast of light snow, but with the outside chance still of up to 4-8 if everything broke right. Came home that evening and they had activated the Emergency Broadcast System (the old school long beep), for an impending blizzard. What dreams are made of.

I think this baby's going to hit us, I have that 2015 feeling that storms will hit us, it wants to snow. I remember watching models in 2015 and a lot of the storms were too far east on the models and eventually by go time they came back for a hit. This one reminds me of 2015 model watching.

Spruce Pine is still under a sheet of ice today. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

well yes but let me dream

Ant used to pull all of these models out back in the nyc metro days

After what seems like a train of downslope events, i'm sure most in our area would sign up for a 2-4" snow, especially if we don't have to use that term.......

So you're saying it wasn't even close?

Maybe the low will track in a favorable direction for East Tennessee.

96 and 2016 both trended north as we moved closer in. In 2016 Euro was way too low with totals in the I81 and I78 corridors. This is unusually low predictability, so that may cancel out modeling improvements since 2016.

NIce timing for the 48 year anniversary.

From that Weather Next run, ratio'd since temps are in the single digits and low teens and the entire column looks like a North Dakota snow sounding, I'd say 1 to 1.5 inches around Cookeville, 1.5-3 inches along the Plateau west to East, 1.5-4 along the central valley of East Tn, 3-6 for NE Tennessee/mountains.

WB 18Z HRRR at range compared to 12Z GFS and EURO

Would give it til tomorrow, but writings on wall

So assuming our coming strat split happens, how long will it take to couple at the surface. I know @Stormchaserchuck1 might have stats on that.

you're tellin' me

Weenie model - but you have had the hot hand since last week.

"Rockport gets destroyed in yet another Blizzard of the Century" Even stronger

If we have enough models all doing something different, eventually ONE of them has to be right.

We were literally 4 degrees away from a 25+ bomb

Posted that 2 hours ago. He's a copy cat! Lol

Will be interesting to see what the High-res models do with the ULL moisture as they get into range. Even without the bomb Eastern areas may actually have a shot at the biggest snow of the year.

Thanks for sharing. as shown, if you adjust clusters you'd notice that GFS/Euro ensembles are very similar in placement. So to that end, we have good agreement, even though it still needs to continue westward ticks. THIS is the kind of consensus that we whould be looking for at this range.

And the NAM much lower would be my guess? Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk