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A real tempest is about to envelop the region. The type not seen in many many years.

Google AI- In seasonal climate modeling, the Climate Forecast System (CFS) seasonal control run—a single, unperturbed deterministic simulation extended out to nine months—is highly prone to systematic model biases, underdispersion, and severe run-to-run volatility. While the control run provides a baseline, its raw output is widely considered unreliable for direct long-range forecasting without extensive statistical bias correction and ensemble averaging. WW doesnt understand control runs. But even the CFS monthly(M) that goes out 3 months is off on WB.

Quite the mist storm! 0.10”

Haha i actually use TT most of the time it’s most mobile friendly. I like pivotal for desktop analysis but its not as mobile friendly

Already gusting to 35 by me at the squan inlet. It's nasty out. Beaches are gonna take a hit. At least.

On Halloween in 2024 it was 85 degrees here and we had very little snow that Winter FWIW.

Gfs has like 65kts at 950 over me. That would hurt.

The day before Sandy, the GFS had it land falling in Maine.

Wow one thing I did notice. The winds at 925 and 950 aren’t much different on the NAM and GFS. Both models are impressive at 950. I can’t see that on the euro, but I assume it may also apply to other models and not just GFS and NAM.

like clockwork

Cold winters and snowy winters are not the same.

GEFS also coming in west

Lol

Thank you! My friend will be relieved

The threat of a low to moderate impact event is high. It remains to be seen if the idea of a stronger system materializes.

0.31" today, 0.37" event total, 1.62" month, 31.85" year

Same. h5 is all I look at with these seasonal models. That said, this is a WB issue. Sucks at h5 too. Check it against TT.

Downtown did...but I am 5 miles NE...rain picking up again as i type...still around 0.01...hvy rain finally!

Darts season probably over according ESPN

About 1.22” today at 6pm imby/Columbia.

Now that it is semi locked in let's see if the intensity can ramp up some. If we're going to have a weekend of awful weather it should at least be interesting. A modelled 990mb is certainly a decent storm, especially with the high pressure gradient, but nothing crazy

It's amazing some haven't figured that out yet-its the same ol story every time

He is awful. Been obvious ever since he took credit for that insane month(Feb?) several winters ago when Boston got dumped on over and over and had like 100". None of his shit worked out that winter. Snake oil salesman.

It just cannot rain in Raleigh anymore lol.

I don’t even check the surface for cfs maps, just 500mb and draw my own conclusions