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If it’ll be raw and nasty, might as well get the benefit of a good soaking. Hopefully it edges NE in the next day or two.

Back door front looks significantly delayed tomorrow in triangle, likely to be close to if not just as hot as today now. Delayed but not denied!

Feels like a mid summer morning. Already 80 with a dew of 68. (Waits for @uofmiamito tell me it doesn’t feel humid outside)

Fortunately Charlie we have the facts and math to prove clearly how much faster PHL is warming than Chester County PA from 1941 through 2025. Since the growth rate not just to the eye but based on the slope certainly shows that PHL has a much steeper warming growth line than Chester County. Charlie as you can plainly see it is not even close. PHL is warming much faster than Chesco!

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF WEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible with thunderstorms from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe gusts may also occur today across parts of west/south-central Texas. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... On the southern fringe of upper troughing over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes, a weak/convectively augmented mid-level shortwave trough will progress northeastward across the OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Robust daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s) ahead of a surface cold front will aid in the development of moderate instability by early afternoon. Ongoing convection across OH/KY this morning may eventually strengthen as it encounters this destabilizing airmass, and additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along/near the cold front by mid afternoon from the central Appalachians into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Stronger flow aloft will tend to lag/remain north of the cold front, but modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly mid-level flow along/near the front should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear. This will be sufficient for some updraft organization with mainly multicells expected, although marginal supercell structures may occur. Low-level lapse rates are expected to become quite steep through the day, evidenced by a general lack of clouds on recent visible satellite imagery from central/eastern WV into the Mid-Atlantic. This will likely aid efficient downward momentum transfer in convective downdrafts, with scattered severe/damaging winds possible as multiple clusters spread east-northeastward through the afternoon/evening. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores. A Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds has been introduced from parts of WV to southern New England given increased confidence in multiple clusters traversing a narrow zone along/ahead of the front.

Good call

Oops. Had it backwards. I'm hugging the NAM lol. I'm just glad we now have a discussion about it. LFG!

Be interesting to see how close the new Euro is.

blah blah blah.. !

He’s baaaaack

Everybody wants social media(anll the different forms) and memes and AI….these are the consequences to such things.

Definitely more of a La Niña flavor with the forcing moving from the IO into the WPAC. Places like Manchester, New Hampshire tied their all-time May high temperature. So a first for such a strong developing El Niño. You will notice how the previous years occurred during developing La Niña summers after El Niño winters. Plus following La Niña winters continuing into the next year. Earlier in May was more of Nino-like pattern with a stronger +PNA and trough in the East. So a continuation of mixed influences with the developing super El Niño and record warm pool from the IO to WPAC. Long range models missed this record warm up and tropical convection moving from the IO into WPAC leading to a very strong Southeast ridge. Time Series Summary for Manchester Area, NH (ThreadEx) - Month of May Highest Maximum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026 97 Developing Super El Niño - 2010 97 Developing La Niña 2 1941 96 Multiyear Strong El Niño start in 1940 3 2022 95 Multiyear La Nina 4 2021 94 Multiyear La Niña - 2017 94 Multiyear La Nina - 2016 94 Developing La Nina - 2013 94 Neutral - 2007 94 Developing La Niña - 1889 94 Developing La Niña 5 2024 93 Developing La Niña - 2018 93 Uncoupled El Niño after La Niña

Big downdraft CAPE is our path to severe today, because the shear sucks. That might be enough to get it done in a few corridors where storms organize, but this would have had some legit widespread material had we achieved better winds aloft.

We weren’t supposed to get much yesterday and we got drenched. I don’t trust the modeling in these.

Drier. Not rain free but not 3 days of rain and 40’s like it’s been showing

The overnight NAMs are lit up like Christmas trees. It's the HRRR that wants to keep all activity today focused north of DC.

Tough forecast for some areas with that sharp rain cutoff. Still crappy everywhere but dry would be more tolerable than an all day stratiform rain.

Sharp cutoff just to the NE of NYC for the weekend rains

If you’re talking the difference between 97-98 and 15-16, I don’t think it matters as much as one might think it does in terms of winter prospects. 97-98 could’ve easily had a mid atlantic KU blizzard just like 82-83, 15-16 did. Maybe 15-16 had more cold periods, but that’s it. The reason we prefer a 97-98 outcome is because it will eradicate the W pac warm pool.

Was pretty gross leaving gym at 7am this morning.

Its a holiday weekend so it will probably verify.

Who is ready for some weather whiplash? After one more unseasonably warm day today we flip to unseasonably chilly starting tomorrow and lasting through at least Sunday. Tomorrow's afternoon temperatures are likely to be more than 30 degrees chillier than today with widespread 50's. We turn even chillier by Saturday with some models hinting at record low maximum temperatures with highs struggling to escape the cold 40's during the afternoon. Some much-needed rain looks to arrive later today and continue off and on through tomorrow. More steady rain arrives Friday night and continues through Saturday. This combination of rain and cold will make Saturday feel more like a raw early March day than Memorial Day Weekend.

Who is ready for some weather whiplash? After one more unseasonably warm day today we flip to unseasonably chilly starting tomorrow and lasting through at least Sunday. Tomorrow's afternoon temperatures are likely to be more than 30 degrees chillier than today with widespread 50's. We turn even chillier by Saturday with some models hinting at record low maximum temperatures with highs struggling to escape the cold 40's during the afternoon. Some much-needed rain looks to arrive later today and continue off and on through tomorrow. More steady rain arrives Friday night and continues through Saturday. This combination of rain and cold will make Saturday feel more like a raw early March day than Memorial Day Weekend.

So I’m curious why you guys think this El Niño is expected to grow so powerful not too long after our last strong event in 2023-2024. The latest guidance has this hitting high end strong at a minimum, given how this event has been developing (already near +1C on the daily in Nino 3.4, subsurface is boiling etc) that seems conservative if anything. The return rate for super ninos is what, once every 8 or so years? My thoughts are this developing super nino is a response to the persistent and intense La Niña background state we have been in (delayed oscillation effect, I know Ray has mentioned this idea in his blogs several times over the years). I was thinking in March that the super Nino idea might not pan out because we just had a strong event in 23-24, but perhaps that “la nino” was a strong El Niño inside a persistent Nina background state, and this is the real regime changing El Niño (that will compare to previous more traditional super El Niños rather than a La Nino)? I have to say, we don’t see eye to eye often but I have to agree with Adam about how this event is developing. He struggled last winter, but he has been on point about this early developing El Niño. It’s more basinwide than east based right now, but I don’t think it really matters in terms of winter prospects. If he’s right about the strength, the warmth will be everywhere (as is standard in super ninos), and it likely will leak more east anyways like 97-98 because super ninos tend to do that historically. I know there has been some pushback on that analog, but no analogs are perfect. 97-98 is good enough at a high level. My top analogs right now are 97-98, 15-16, and 82-83.