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I posted a few days ago after a crazy AI run if this forum would eventually succumb to snow fatigue. Guess I got my answer.

Total QPF here in Belmont/Cramerton was 0.54". 1.2" sleet (a bit of snow mixed within that as well, but minimal, and only due to super cold CAD allowing some "dendrite-esque" precip to reform right beneath the warm nose which was quite fascinating). 0.18" ice accretion

Dumping again

I hope Corey will be home for this one

Coming down nicely here. Moderate snow, 20 degrees. Maybe I can add on another inch or two to today’s final measurement.

Yeah I think we had 13 to 1 or so yesterday. I thought we may end up better than that, but not surprised either. I remember saying 13 or 14 to 1 is a good default in cold storms where good DGZ crosshair isn’t obvious…. Today’s stuff was obvious on model guidance. I was very confident in high ratio fluff for Monday PM stuff but yesterday is a very good example of not going crazy with ratios on a high QPF dump from a prototype SWFE

Let’s make it happen

which was better ensembles 00z,6z or 18z?

As soon as I got excited about the last storm things changed and it went downhill so I’m holding out. Just tracking

18z Eps would of been even better but it had a few lows way out to see which skewed the mean... take those 3 out and it would of been widespread half foot means

This one would, And the next one on the 6th too.

The more the storm deepens the further west it’ll track. The only concern i have is that huge high pressure system over Arkansas/Missouri/ Kansas

Looks really good, throwing precip back to the wv panhandle is a good sign.

Deepen to 920 stack and stall. LOL

Interesting math skills .

https://imgur.com/a/sAdrQFm#FN22BB6

2015 redux?

This storm isn’t going west. It’s either going be an i95 east or OTS

What a great storm, everybody needed this!

I was indeed somewhat impressed in the Euro AI. I wish I had done a bit more comparison of it against the AI GFS. Not sure if anyone has thoughts on that comparison specifically?

E. Shore -- overdid snow (flipped early), about right with sleet and rain flip. Inshore -- overdid snow, underdid sleet (flipped early), about right with ZR (0.3-0.4 IMBY). We got the heavy rain showers (as freezing rain) but the CAD ended up chasing the precip out, so very little/no ZR on eastern shore. We did indeed get some light snow today over the inshore areas w/ the big upper trough. All in all, not too bad. Flipping sleet 2-3 hours earlier would've almost entirely corrected this to reality, so B/B-.

Radar kind of meh again but absolutely dumping has to be close to 1.5 to 2 inches a hour still

Nothing scientific here but it just wants to snow this year, ya really can’t deny the trends with all the snow so far. I’m willing to bet this comes north and West we’ll be watching that damn sleet line again before ya know it Lol

Except for a few hours this morning, it has been snowing since 10 AM yesterday.