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Absolutely comical. Every single model except the euro had this storm in some form or another at 12z, and every single model that’s run so far at 0z has lost the storm. I wonder if that’s ever happened that quickly on 6 different models.

This explains the Canadian change from 12Z to 0Z

The two pieces of energy in the northern plains were weaker and flatter on the 0z runs long before they ran into that confluence, which looks like an effect of the weaker trough, not a cause.

This decade has really hurt everyone’s averages. It’s been lousy across the board, but even moreso for northern areas that aren’t Parr’s Ridge.

this explains what happened on the GFS surface map looking at 500mb Vort

Most also show another lead wave Saturday in the southern MA or SE which is a problem too

so you are saying the models will return to the big storm solution as we get closer ?

Every model run so far tonight other than the AI gfs shows the low over the lakes hang back longer and the trough flatter. Makes this a jumbled mess.

I referenced that confluece N of ME in my write up...although the ridging out west had trended better, that confluence has trended enough in the other direction to negate. ..other guidance was missing that.

42/23 today in Smithtown. 29 now

I feel like this is the 3rd time we've seen this script play out in the past 365 days.

When you come at the king, you best not miss

I’ve learned after all my time here that the models just can’t stay steady at this range as much as we want them to. We’ll track again tomorrow.

Far from over, but pretty much everything since the 12z Euro came out has trended less favorably There are still a metric ton of features involved in this setup though, so to think we've seen the final solution is folly. Does that mean it works out? No, but its far from throw in the towel territory yet

Thanks. She's slipping away. Check back in the morning

the ensembles were never on board - no cliff to jump off of - lessons learned - use the ensembles past day 5 and discount the GFS OP especially - the Canadian doing the GFS nonsense was surprising yesterday and today at 12Z

Models must've gotten a really good sampling sometimes today--seems they're all in lockstep in the direction they moved.

Looks better at 114. Also, it is similar to 18z. 18z and 0z are way better than 6z GEFS back when GFS OP had a great storm. So take that fwiw. .

yeah just a little south of 12z by 850 miles

these phase jobs are not easy to predict 5 days out - models will keep adjusting each day we get closer with new data fed into the models each day from the ever changing atmosphere - so what comes out of the models on day 6 or 7 could be many miles different in any direction by gametime - I would expect further changes in the next few days - might not even be a phase or one too far away and we end up with a few rain or snow showers.......thats one possibility

Pretty bad very few members n/w

Nary a sprinkle on the Ukie either. Did we miss a hurricane hunter plane out there today? Everything looks extremely similar minus the Ais.

Ukie is a rain/snow shower maybe if that

Why are you still here tracking if we never get any notable events in late February? Why not just cross that out of the calendar each year and take a 1-2 week break?

Apple weather is terrible. I was listening to 93.7 the fan and of course one of the guys was like we are expecting 7 inches of snow this weekend. Where does apple get their weather info from...