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Yeah it is. Noticeably colder than the 12k

Met and Steve, when is the last time y’all remember Haywood County having a major ice event, especially up through the Balsams? In my recollection it’s been maybe 20 years or more. A very rare occurrence around these parts if that verified.

CTP 10-16” For my area.

1/22 18x RGEM

Mount Holly giving some more details on there maps.

1AM monday I don't really see a dry slot. The coastal hopefully takes over and flings some moisture back

The nam is really pumping warmth into the 700mb layer. I call its bluff.

3-5 isn’t a bad outcome with a low that goes to Pittsburgh.

Great for us....best yet to come for ENE?

Anyone want to try to guess what these fingers of freezing temps are on the GRAF? just random model physics?

NAM doesn’t look all that different from the Euro. We puke fatties until Sunday evening, then taint with lighter stuff.

Seemingly aligning with the rest of guidance WRT the track

way drier is an exaggeration... it shows 1.1QPF for the city and mostly the whole forum is at 1" QPF or higher and its colder and a bit further south which would guarantee more snow. So its a better run in my opinion!

We are losing here because of synoptic-scale stuff, not hidden warm layers though. The 850 low is even stronger and further NW than prior runs of almost all models, which just kills us.

I had to come over here to get out of the anti-Nam banter.

More a thumping than a crushing 8-10" brief sleet then dry slot almost same timing as the ECM SECS

The Nam can’t even get precip right 24hrs out and is scheduled to be retired not sure why we care what it says lol.

NAM would be pretty great here and for SNE in general. someone in Eastern Plymouth/Norfolk county going to score big

Still at the rough edge of “Go home NAM, you’re drunk” at this stage. .

3k NAM is COLD

Curious could not the LP not create its own colder air kinda like a cut off low does sometimes in springs? So whoever is under that LP would have better chances of having snow instead of FZ.

going down swinging Alek with almost 9 inches enjoy!!!

Yeah im not a fan of kuchera but its probably better than 10:1 for a portion and worse for a portion with sleet so i went 10:1 as a whole (model foreast-wise)

But is it just BSing or does it show what it does because it handles the features you were previously mentioning differently in a fashion that still remains remotely possible?