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14.7/5.2

euro ai good for far eastern areas, heartbreaking elsewhere.

16.9

2m temps means something but it is much more about what goes on upstairs. Need Bob Chill or one of the Mets to explain this better than I could, lol. It's something about the DGZ, Dendritic Growth Zone or something like that. Remember the last storm in Virginia? Ground temps in the low teens? Sleet falling in 13 degree temperatures and people saying this is so ridiculous? It was all about what was happening upstairs. I think it was because of a strong warm layer at about 700mb or something like that over top of the incredibly frigid airmass over the Mid Atlantic that caused the warm layer to dump rainfall that froze into sleet pellets because it was so damn COLD in the boundary layer. Or something like that. I really should leave this to degreed Mets or qualified hobbyists like Bob Chill or PSU or even SnowinOutThere. He needs a red tag stat. I sure don't. All I am, is an old man snow weenie lmao.

Temps teens and low 20's Sat could be 20:1 ratios no?

ECM reminds me of March 1-2 1980, heavy snow Norfolk and Virginia Beach. 5" to DC, traces to se PA-c NJ. Clear and very cold further north. I am not endorsing it, just saying that's what it looks like.

If it's like this on 12z Wednesday then it's probably cooked, but I want to see how the recon data affects the modeling output.

It's SE BUT this is pretty early

EPS is a more major tick SE (these ALSO just came out on WxBELL)

EPS-AI tick SE (these just came out on WxBELL, btw)

All the rich folk with pivotal and wxbell subs are asleep lol

Ensembles?

Progressive flow caused by that LP vort near Minnesota moving east BUT is it right ? See if the EPS agrees with the OP

North Smithtown, NY Storm Total 11.4" LE: 1.90" from melted core (4" gage catch was 1.33") Season total to date 28.4"

Euro misses as it stalls off hatteras. Not sure if I’ve ever seen that in winter before but holy cane.

Looks like the Euro slides due east from there.

Euro trended east, ots

I don’t have the kuchera but here’s 10:1

Euro goes neutral about 117-120 and the shortwave is further east.Not a whiff but the timing could be a tick better.

The lp on 0Z Euro went from a 995 to a 983 stalled off NC coast in 6 hours - BUT 12 hours later deepens to 962mb moving east - weird solution and progressive flow that L near Minnesota is not a good signal with HP in southeast Canada - too far north

The only shred of hope I have is it actually gonna snow 30" on the Delmarva?

What? Your roof should be able to hold at least 3-4 feet of snow. You’ll be fine

Whoops. Nvm. At 114 pulls the low back to the coast

Upgraded CMC shift SE

Euro trending OTS also