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ahh yeah I didn't check the 3km yet. Something like that is exactly what I am trying to envision happening. You can see too how that really hammers the lower Hudson down to around Newark...could be some serious flooding down that way.

That was a nice storm around 130am. one big clap of thunder and some really good lightning. Picked up.64' out of it. Just missed the core by 3 miles.

3k nam shows what you're saying

u tell 'em

Someone for sure, but how widespread of an area? That's what I'm a bit iffy on. Could be the Berks that get smoked in this.

negativity? More like reality Move to Key West or Mumbai if you want this crap year round. We celebrate all 4 seasons around these parts. One of the nastiest mornings in recent memory today. Forgive me if I’m yearning for Fall as the calendar flips to August.

Maybe this will cheer up Birds... John Bolaris Pitches a Weather Podcast with Cecily Tynan - Crossing Broad

Strong dynamics for late July. Seems like someone will get crushed to me.

wrong but we hope it's so right....give 'em 6-12" and call it a day

ready 2 convect

Lighting up

Lloyd Harbor, New York (Suffolk County) yesterday evening. Perfect day.

That little storm popped up by Harvard IL really fast. Going all the way up to Watertown WI. Now to see if it expands at all West.

The fog is the heaviest precipitation I have had in awhile…

Given the much larger WPAC pool than 1997-1998, this makes sense. Many decades of steady ocean warming since then. So it also would not be a surprise if the stronger WPAC warm pool resulted in less ENSO cooling than 1998-1999 to 2000-2001. We could even see this event linger longer into 2027 due to how much ocean heat will be accumulating in the ENSO regions. It would be interesting to know why we couldn’t get WWBs this strong in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 to really tap the expanded WPAC warm pool until now?

I don’t know what’s going on here but this outer edge of drizzle has been hanging on for about 10 hours now. I would think (since no models have any idea of what’s going on) that you may be entirely right. Not feeling overly optimistic about anything in Michigan anyway.

We can only hope this is a preview of winter in the temp department.

That's cute Love how the bullseye is right over me. That's how you know it isn't happening But looks like the NAM wants to pump the fire hose Wednesday night. Still seems a quite a bit overdone

12k nam…what could go wrong?

congrats @weatherwiz

NAM floods you down the CT river

ehhh this isn't looking that impressive for widespread significant rainfall totals. Greatest concern for several inches of rain is going to be the Hudson Valley into NJ tomorrow into the overnight but as the system continues sliding east its going to begin occluding. Also seems like there are two warm fronts with this...we get a diffuse warm front maybe into southern CT and dynamics are solid...so we're going to see rain but it should generally be light-to-moderate and a bit more on the spotty side with heavier rain tied into convection. The true warm front seems to get pinched off well south. There will be some wild gradients with totals...some spots will probably see 2-3-4" of rain (but really spread out over multiple days) and some spots may struggle to even get an inch. All in all, a nice good soaking rain for some, perfect because the ground can easily absorb it and limit any major concerns for flooding. Could be big flooding through Hudson Valley into NJ

The Branchburg Dome is strong this summer, haha

Yup…even pulled a 31° there on the 28th. BED probably would’ve been around 46° that morning, but we’ll probably get another “coldest 7/28 of our lives” tomorrow.