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Just saw your post but I had been thinking the same thing all day! Planes definitely sounded different to me as well. I’m about 10 miles east of ORD

For sure. But uncle showed less qpf from Luke down through nyc which is what I was referring to. I think the orographic assist should be enhanced if we do Monday properly.

Only -4 for a high this afternoon. Pretty hard around here to get a below zero high temp with zero snow on the ground, but we did it. Pretty impressive. Lowest wind chill hit -38 early this morning.

NAM and RRFS are on their own with the extreme mid level warm air surge. None of the other globals or mesos agree with pushing sleet to the Poconos.

GEFS seem to suck, too.

What do you make of this euro run [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention]

Early-mid afternoon big time fun, flip to sleet by 7pm-ish but by then the vast majority already fell. Euro got wetter too, went from about 0.9" liquid last run to 1.2 now.

00z euro ai aifs Total QPF Total Snow (10:1)

While one has a better chance of winning a USSR state-sponsored lottery than getting a single GFS deterministic run to verify at 10 days out, the 0z GEFS isn't exactly self-assured of a coastal low solution either. It hints at one, but that's about it. Lotta time yet between now and early Feb to go bowling for Miller A's, but some of the biggest storms had such strong signals that the models locked onto them 7+ days out and remained remarkably consistent until 0-day.

Big picture folks. Gonna be a serious 10 days. Looking like snow for a lot of folks. At least for now. .

@stormtracker when he sees that 0z Euro run:

Probably looking at 4.5 is my guess right now. Hard to say. If changeover is later or sooner all models could be wrong. That could change a lot of stuff. I mean I can see one inch or 8 at this point. Lol

you magnificent crazy bastard

Hits the orographic assist hard for ORH and Berks.

It looks like the OKC area may experience a lull in the snowfall soon.

Euro before I go to bed.

A Euro cave to the GFS is a spectacular way to end the day. Also, down to 17.2/-8.9 here... as we all know this cold is real. Tomorrow is it - let's reel it in.

Credits for 0z Euro: PBP: @bncho Snow Map: @NorthArlington101 see ya at 6z!

Wow - didn’t expect that. Is this even more than the GFS.?

That would make a lot of great childhood memories verbatim

Euoro total QPF Total snow (10:1)

I agree. Event fatigue has set in. I’ll be leaving 2/1 so this is likely my event of the year. Though I should be back the first week of March so who knows…

Ukmet was better