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Cooler air has now returned to the region. Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and cool with highs topping out in the lower and middle 60s across the region. Rain will develop on Saturday and continue into Sunday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely. The temperature will likely remain in the 50s all day on Saturday and struggle to reach the lower 60s on Sunday. The mercury will likely return to the lower 70s on Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.70°C. El Niño conditions are now in place. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -15.07 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.108 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

95 at 4:46pm. I still say 50% chance of .50" of rain.

Hopefully this helps the wildfire in Chapell Hill. Tons of smoke on Wake today.

Sad to see. NASCAR driver Kyle Busch died at the age of 41.

Finally breaking the back on the drought. It's been straight crunchy dust down here for months. Had a sporty storm roll through a couple hours ago with some gully washing and gusts near 40mph. Picked up 1.3" in under an hour and now round 2 is rolling through. Could be close to 2" by morning. This is awesome

45 and rain for us!

That slug in CVA moving towards DC looks nice

Hopefully lots of clouds for as long as possible. Do not want the 30s.

.25" of rain from thunderstorm last night and rain today. Plants woke up. Hoping grass greens up again quickly.

Barry the goat How does he do it

I picked up about an inch this week. I wish it was more, but my lawn is finally starting to show signs of life.

That will be a blessing................

I’ll happily be enjoying my 30 degrees with ripping snow on the trails of WV.

I like the radar. I might do a rain Jeb walk later on.

There is… still some large scale wind drifts as patches and small patches left in the high NE facing spruce forests. Getting down there though to the final coldest/shadiest spots.

It’s also too cold

1957-8, 1972-3, and 1982-3 had the most wintry precipitation of the super Ninos in the SE US. Also, 1957-8 was cold vs the NN of 72-3 and 82-3. 65-6 was also cold.

Even looking at the drought map, most of the area is barely in a drought. Yes, down south its a little worse in areas but not most of us. Even before the last couple "dry" years, go back a few more years and we were averaging 3-4" more than normal every year for a while. It all evens out.

any snow left at the top of stowe?

It was frosty in much of the lower peninsula too. The U.P. is a different world BUT I am convinced Bo literally lives in the best spot possible (at least the best spot thats inhabitable) for a winter lover.

1.06”

1982-83 was hands down the worst winter of the strong nino bunch here.

Enjoy your 35 and driving rain this winter.

Wow Keedysville mesonet site is on pace to break 2" of rain today. 18z HRRR has another 1" - 2.5" from I-70 north through noon Sunday.

Oh for sure. Its all relative. We still have winter, just not as much as we normally do. Ive been saying since March, and will only get more confident if el nino stays on the strong path, that next winter will see less cold and snowcover but a bigger storm. Multiple instances of good storms in strong Nino winters. Usually get a few of the very scenic paste jobs too.