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Delayed but not yet denied has become a never ending carrot dangle for winter

We chase!

Mass

yeah thats the one that might hit me and impact the kick for the Rutgers game at 330

lots of bubbly TCU popping to my west

Just finished mowing the brown scraggly grass. Hope wr can get done green up with some cool, wet weather.

Where? Getting dark by me. Alerts blowing up my phone.

Not threading. Follow NWS warnings-statements. Discussed plenty already. I85 corridor seems to be the central axis for a 1-3" total by Noon Sunday with isolated 4" and chc FFW or FLW in urban centers of ne NJ/NYC/w CT, and near small streams in NJ/CT. MAX 6" showing up SPCHREF in s NJ past 2 cycles but 4-4.5"possible somewhere in ne NJ sw CT. So maybe I'm too lax on this but I think you have this covered. SVR and FF threat mainly til 10PM, but expect some mdi-heavy rain tomorrow morning before it quits midday-afternoon. Will add CoCoRaHs 24 hour totals tomorrow and the two event summary on Monday morning.

64/47 day at DEN yesterday, -13 below average day. Still haven't been warmer than 86 since 8/21. We're a day away from the 5 year anniversary of one of the most dynamic weather events I've seen. After hitting a record 101 a few days earlier, a strong cold front pushed down the Front Range on 9/7. First it produced high winds and blowing dust, with temps falling from the low 90s in the early afternoon to the 50s a few hours later. Then came rain, turning to snow in the early am hours. High of 93 on 9/7, followed by 43 on 9/8. DEN officially picked up an inch, but many parts of the metro area (including my house) saw 2-3". It was one of the earliest snows on record for the city.

Early bad mojo, but trying to avoid the mental gymnastics.

I'm actually kind of impressed by the rotation shown here. Or maybe there is some odd data on the velocities

I’d watch some of the larger cells ahead of that line developing too.

Whole line is spinning.

Meh. Google Mt Pollux and go there if you're setting up in Amherst

Nothing matters but Oregon and ohio state as long as they win other games. What I mean I mean is they could win other games by 1 or 60 and it won't matter which as long as games are won because regular season will be judged on those two games alone Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

20 minute super downpour just concluded...

Incredible supercell long track tornado

Going to go to Amherst golf club

I suspect that its seeming inability to see cold anomalies except at shorter timescales has a lot to do with the idea that boundary conditions drive seasonal averages. ENSO, PDO are prominent conditions. The oceans overall are warming. Therefore, the model forecasts are tipped toward the warmer idea more broadly than is realistic. Worse, the coefficients of determination for such variables related to boundary conditions and actual seasonal outcomes are very low. These weak relationships reveal that other important factors are involved, including synoptic scale events that cannot be reliably forecast beyond 10-14 days. Some of these additional variables may not yet be known. Synoptic scale events i.e., large snowstorms, Arctic blasts, etc., can have a great influence on the overall seasonal outcomes. Thus, even a warm winter can be much snowier than normal or a cold winter can lack snowfall. On account of these other variables, every La Niña or El Niño event is not alike. The seasonal models are not yet at a stage where they can even begin to consistently resolve the actual events that ultimately produce the seasonal outcome. A similar situation applies to subseasonal forecasting. Not surprisingly, beyond two weeks, model skill on the weekly guidance largely disappears. There also seems to be a larger deal of persistence in the two week or longer forecasts than what actually occurs. AI may improve some of these outcomes. But even then, big challenges could still persist. For example, even as some experiments with random forest models have shown a degree of improved skill in forecasting ENSO, those models are constrained by their knowledge base. Hence, when it comes to forecasting extreme events e.g., super El Niño events, they have great difficulty. Perhaps the combination of AI and quantum computing might produce some significant breakthroughs. But that's still in the future and perhaps a decade or more away, assuming society values science and basic research to make the investments necessary to arrive at that improved state of forecasting. That's an open question in some areas and it will become even more relevant as major states grapple with the costs of aging populations, rising debt relative to GDP, etc., and the trade-offs involved in making budget allocations.

I’m sorta hoping with the watch that was just issued they move it indoors.

nada here and looks like it skirts to north of me

They popped up pretty quickly. These pre-frontal discrete cells we have to keep an eye on. There’s one on my doorstep now.

This next round might nail here as well

Don't wear your 4th of July outfit. I'm pretty sure they have security.