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Cooler conditions have returned to the region. Temperatures will likely top out in the 50s through Thursday. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will likely struggle to reach the lower 50s. Wednesday morning could see the low temperature approach 32° in New York City. Should the mercury reach 32°, New York City would see its second consecutive April with a freeze (last year's last freeze was April 9). The last time that happened was 2015 and 2016. Temperatures will return to the 60s on Friday. The warmth will extend into the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -7.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.535 today.

Please no

Could be an interesting night in southern Iowa. Some of the models are suggesting a very narrow swath of 6" or more of snow from a very intense stationary band of snow to develop.

Looks like El Nino gonna go boom too. Gonna be a hot summer it looks like... Might have to import water instead of oil... lol?

It looks like there’s been lower pressures around Tahiti but it seems we’re missing the high pressure around Darwin which isn’t allowing the SOI to really tank.

The ensembles continue to show 2.5-3" of rain across the area over the next two weeks. That's great as we head into the warm season, but it's a problem for the construction crew that has to re-grade the new stormwater wetland next to my house and then plant seed.

We haven't baked under a real death ridge since 2012. We're due.

Trying to figure out why it takes 3-5 days to warm up, but only 12 hours to get cold...

3-4 inches of windblown snow fell in a pretty short span today. Current temp is 19 with a forecast low of 8. The last single digit of the season...?

Well -10 isn't very strong. Those early March readings >+20 were strong. Will be interesting to see how the SOI responds to this Kelvin wave coming up.

The (not so) sci-fi version of this El Nino... It will rise to historic proportions, but ... no one saw the bigger issue coming - though in retrospect, really should have. Why? because it already happened once, in 2023. The whole planet surged, by almost .4 C spanning a 2.5 month period that spring, brining the planet perilously close to the theorized threshold of +1.5 C over the IR. Only this time ... by a whole degree C Such that not only are we at 2.5 over the Industrial Revolution entry mean, it is so crazy warm that relative ONI renders almost meaningless outside of the immediate tropical atmosphere. Vaguely coupling to the mid latitude pattern ( meaning weakly correlating) It's going to be the first panic year of this ongoing CC explosion, which just moves slower than human perception - geologically? It's detonating. 0 summer ice in 5 years. Roth slides into the ocean... Global tsunamis claims a billion lives

@StormchaserChuck1 Here comes the -SOI….

A fox just walked past my house with a fish in his/her mouth. Then headed down the street and into some woods. I wonder if there are kits. Idk if the fish was a catch or a find...but I want it to be a catch because that's much cooler. Looked fresh to me and intact.

Very well said. All we need to do is look back at events of rapid climate change in the past. In the natural world they were caused by events like large impacts and super volcanos. The Siberian Traps (which occurred over a longer period) the results were the same with 96% of marine life going extinct. The release of greenhouse gases caused extreme global warming, with temperatures near the equator reaching 165°F (74°C). Ocean devastation: The CO2 led to ocean acidification and a lack of oxygen (anoxia), killing most marine life. Feedback loop: The eruptions may have melted frozen methane on the seafloor, creating a devastating feedback loop. All of this is on the table. .

Strongest ever Nino.. lfg

+3C ONI is what we want

Sounds about right.. probably going to be slightly warmer than average this summer with slightly below average precip

The newer cultivars are sterile but the originals where brought over before anyone put any thought into invasive potential. There are saplings allllll over the place in NYBG and they are actively trying to eradicate them. Red bud is a great tree but weak in storms so not really suited to coastal locations. .

Let’s do it!

The consistent squally weather has been at least mildly interesting today. Super sharp gradients to each of them… It snows hard then rolls out, some of them miss you by 100 yards or so. Not snowing over here but hard on the other side of the field. Then eventually moves in.

Mass installs later this week

As Journey sang: So here I am with open arms Hoping you'll see what your dews mean to me Open arms

Definitely a warm look upcoming.

maybe you'll hit 60°?