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Yet another MCS seems poised this late evening to crash into portions of SW VA and NE TN. The ground is soggy here. I spent the better part of today cleaning up storm debris in the form of downed tree debris. One good, windy storm is gonna be a huge problem if it occurs anywhere in the near future w/ all of the wet ground and very full leaf canopies. On the plus side, fall should be beautiful if we can get some cool temps later in Sept.

Generally, big Ninos are warm here IMBY. But...it doesn't take my imagination much to think about what "could" happen if cold managed to find its way where w/ the STJ absolutely ripping. Maybe 09-10 is an analog, but not perfect? For me, this winter is a mystery and not a slam dunk like the previous two Nina winters. The other thing is if the Nino crashes midway through winter, and allows cold air to rush SE w/ the precip pattern in place. I don't think winter will be overly cold. But the it doesn't have to be crazy cold if January goes climo w/ a loaded precip pattern. Tough call. If the CANSIPS holds for the next two runs, that would be a good step. Also, analogs have been super sketchy during the past decade in regards to being accurate. A lot of seasonal forecasts are analog based I think. All of that said...we have seen during recent winters that there have been big snows in the northern hemisphere where amped precip jets hit cold air. Some yet-to-be place in NA seems primed for that.

I am not sure how well it may perform here b/c since Deep Mind is trained on past events, and there are very few cases in this area of the Pacific compared to the ern Pacific and Atlantic. The HAFS-A and B, which are the best TC physics-based models, do not show the system attaining hurricane-strength. The HAFS-B was much stronger at showing a 965 mb hurricane at 06z, but 12z was weaker, and now 18z has backed down to below hurricane-strength. The both show the system quite asymmetric for convection for it closest pass to the Big Island, which we can already see on sat (all on the N side).

What's the record minimum?

CANSIPS has had a big western ridge(AK) for two straight seasonal runs - July and August.

Yeah even just a couple weeks ago later July they were bitin'. Wonder if Stein played a webbed hand

To be fair, that was before I was taking Chris' musings about the increasing prevalence of MC forcing very seriously...I mocked him in the lead up to that 2023-2024 winter and he ultimately handed me my ass. Invaluable learning experience for me because my outlooks have been much better since and I've addressed what had been a cold/snow bias.

Epic sig material

They were nuts in June…all biting insects have calmed in the past couple weeks.

High of 79. T of precipitation from 12 drops of rain. 0.13” month to date

Google deep mind model. One of the best performing tropical models out there these days

After an official airport high of an awful 97, I was on the road in the middle of a full-fledged severe thunderstorm in the SW SAV metro area along and near US-17 and GA 204 ~6-6:15PM. It was about the most ferocious storm I’ve experienced so far this summer with high winds, some of the worst CTG lightning I’ve seen this summer, and blinding torrential rain. It was a doozy with Ma Nature showing off her wild side. There were some fallen trees nearby per reports. When I got home it was raining heavily though nothing like what I saw earlier. My home also had a popup earlier. Total rainfall today was >1”, which was very nice to see!

Yeah lately it hasn't been too bad locally; though earlier this year seemed more than usual

That’s a bit surprising as it has looked like the south metro has done well today, minus the large hail reports of course. I was hoping that you and Majya picked up some good totals today. Up here, much more gentle rainfall with .16” so far. Not going to complain as we have been doing well since the first monsoon rounds a few weeks ago. In fact, we have seen a resurgence of a green up which is unusual.

Anybody else have little mosquitoes this year? I know it's the localized. Can't even feel the effers land on you.

.60” on the day, lawn is Happy

I'm all for a repeat of the August autumn of 1986. Sick and tired of the endless humidity.

Big storm blowing up in Hendo.

MJO is really booking it this year. I've read WQBO can speed it up too, so that's a little interesting. But man this thing is really flying. I feel like all that's going to do is constructively interfere with this el nino more often. Seems like this would just encourage the nino to take center stage even more so. Not that it needs that..

The past couple of days, the dewpoints have been falling to the mid-60s at night and rising to 70 during the day, the reverse of the normal pattern. Getting tired of seeing 70 DPs every single day.

Yes

Above normal temperatures will persist through tomorrow. Highs will generally top out in the middle and upper 80s. Cooler air will move into the region to close of the week. As a result, the weekend and early next week will likely see highs mainly in the lower 80s. Some showers or a thundershower could precede a renewed push of cooler air late Sunday or Sunday night. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -5.95 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.165 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.5° (0.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Agreed. I feel it will be a "delayed" winter but not denied in the end.