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ICON is more of a tn valley overrunner vs a developed storm. Not much of a circulation or developed surface/850 low. AI models are far different in that respect.

-10's with some -20's (-sd's along the shore) this morning. Day winds have kicked up as well, keeping wind chills ugly.

We can just cancel it to pull the storm back if it starts to go wrong anyhow

12z Suite Scoreboard >4" vs <4" scoreboard (Euro = 5, Euro AI = 5, GFS AI = 4, GFS = 3, CMC = 2, UKMET = 1, ICON = 1) DC: 0-1, less than 4" leads Baltimore: 0 - 1, less than 4" leads

12z icon starts us off with smoking cirrus, nary a flake while the MA gets a SECS. But...it did move quite a bit N, so thats a step in the right direction.

3.4" from yesterday, 2 day total was 7.8"

RGEM was going to be less suppressed as well. Just judging off of the position of the PV. We'll see how that translates to the Canadian.

I feel pretty confident that as long as we don’t see a cutter,IMO, we should not have temperature issues. .

12z ICON would be 3" - 6" of cold powder on a weekend.

Gfs overdoes that sometimes

Weekend snowfall totals: Click map to enlarge.

WTTTY it was coming. Scott did not know!

This is a decent chart.

Icon jumped north, more Euro-like. I tend to think of the AI models as predictive of a way to show the most likely direction the OP models will trend. I would tend to think significant snowfall is much more likely North of Charlotte

I’m certainly not writing off the possibility, just skeptical right now.

I think you meant 2003. PD 2023 was a torch, lol.

I mentioned this in a post a few days ago. Throw quantum into the mix, then what do we have? It either takes the fun out of this hobby...or maybe we don't sweat over the models and just enjoy the weather when it happens. Do private forecast firms go by the wayside? Related...I feel bad the those who recently learned to write basic code at their local community college.

Congrats RIC

Not on the AI ensembles . Loaded with gulf moisture. Regular models overdoing confluence as they are bias to do

Also you know its a real threat when we got a bunch of mets posting in the thread!

I could do it. I don't mind the superstition BS. If I create it and it dies, just call me stormTrasher. har har har

I admit this exceeded my expectations. Did not think the temp would drop that quickly and it came down good.

That’s my thought as well and I hope I’m thinking too warm

Better each run.

Quick hit. Not great but a big improvement both H5 and surface.