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that would be hilarious. our first one should be the 11/11 VD redux.

Pretty sky this morning around sunrise.

Mostly sunny here too.

Some areas of decent color now up and down I-91 from Enfield down to about Wallingford but definitely not a banner year.

On a side note I do think it would be hilarious to start a thread for some random day in the winter and hype it up the whole fall

Maybe we should start the thread preemptively. Have we ever tried that?

I don’t think so . Strikes usually peel the bark . Plus he hasn’t had a tstorm in several years

I’m no expert, but looking at the second pic looks like a lightning strike

Must be - was definitely pretty clear over in Balt City in any event.

A major storm recently hit western Alaska, causing huge impacts and damage to coastal communities. https://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2025/10/storm-catastrophe.html?m=1

I agree that it was overplayed.

It seems like whenever we get a -NAO episode in the Fall, someone goes on with strong correlations about how the Winter is going to be cold. The fact is, the data since 1948 shows that October is the only month of the year that has an opposite correlation between the monthly and Winter (DJFM) NAO state. Now, over 200 years, not 76, that might not be true.. It makes sense that the same pattern would run forward, but as it stands now an Oct -NAO is not a big sign for a cold Winter.. I'd look more to see if the Pacific is in -EPO/+PNA in October.

There was actually a big +PDO in the Fall of 1995. A +PDO/east-based Nina is actually a very cold Winter composite in the Northeast. I've also found that the ENSO subsurface is more important than surface SSTs (Kelvin/Rossby waves, and their impact on the N. Hemisphere pattern)... ENSO subsurface was Neutral in 95-96, not La Nina, so there was more space for a Winter +PNA to develop and persist.

See my updated first post above for additional details. I'm ready to start getting people on-boarded into the system.

For a second, I thought a weenie already started this year’s thread.

The key feature for the early Jan blizzard was a strong NA block, along with an uncharacteristically strong low(for a Nina) that developed in the GoM. It was actually a moderate Nina. Common misconception that it was weak Nina, and I posted about this last winter. Weak Ninas usually suck bigtime for the greater DC area- last winter was a rare exception, but hopefully its a new norm.

Oh yeah I think it is coming for sure. Im not worried at all about a warm October.

I don't understand what you're saying. How can a 30 year normal be anything other than the average of the previous 30 years of temperatures?

It's coming! Of note, one of the analog years I keep seeing being mentioned for this upcoming winter is 2013-2014. That ended up being a good winter for us. KAVL temperatures for that October were relatively warm with mid-70's all the way into late October. Just something to keep an eye on.

20 years ago today Hurricane Wilma formed and became the most intense hurricane ever in the atlantic basin. Just saying...

Lorenzo fought valiantly but, RIP

Every source hyped the nor'easter up. It wasnt limited to what you are posting about here. I get where you are coming from, but 100% legitimate sources did the same in this case. Some will even argue it did verify if you lived on the coast or long Island, but the hype was originally for a more widespread storm.

^busy season coming up for you

Maybe chill on this until we get fantasy GFS snow

Getting back in the gym.