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It forgot everything it learned earlier

ICON is horrific

It had that northern stream component notably West early on into the run like NAM and Euro, but then yeah the entire look fell apart.

ICON is laughably terrible btw

One thing to note is the DGZ is going to be very close to the surface. The difference in solutions run to run is dependent upon where the 850 vort passes when dropping south out of Canada. If the winds veer at 850 from the NW instead of N, NNE then the lift mechanism needed would be the mountains/plateau. Moisture is in place, just need something to lift the parcels.

That's... unfortunate

Icon is following the NAM (I know), west, with our northern stream. Keep playing around with that look, you’ll drop the wave somewhere around Arkansas and instead of your late bloomer, you get a gulf low

Fixed

it's really going to be something to see how a warm nose works its way into this one, but i won't sell mother nature short in the carolinas

He's a famous musician who has to go and perform

I am very happy you are okay. You'll get the windshield fixed, but the most important thing is you are okay.

Bf is gonna do a special 6z umbrella launch for the 6z runs.

6.3" at ~40:1?! Insane What are the best ratios you've seen up there for a >6" measurement?

-3.8 with snow still pouring sideways in Wolf. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

3.6” new most of that on one hour. 22.9”

This is how I feel about the models tonight

Sorry, but why the f**k would anyone want to go to the Grammys? Talk about a bunch of Just fly back early

When are we getting recon data for the shortwave in the Pacific? Once that’s ingested into the modeling dataset, it’s going to make alllll the difference…

Back to back 14 day stretch I can’t think of one except maybe 1977

Moon visible now with flurries ending. Final core is 2.0”/0.05”….so that’s 6.3”/0.16” since I snowblowed this morning. Event total 15.5”/1.01”

Potential coastal low this weekend. It will be cold enough.

10-14” on their 730am report. I’m convinced that if you add up the lower number of Jay’s range you’d get their actual annual snowfall.

Based on the forecast teleconnections, a track that leads to impacts in the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England regions remains plausible. The PNA+ promotes an eastern trough and the AO- block can slow the system. With the AO rising rapidly, but remaining strongly negative, the risk of suppression is reduced over what it would be were the AO to be at or below -3.000 and falling. An out-to-sea or only grazing solution remains possible, but a solution that has at least some impacts remains more likely than a purely out-to-sea solution. IMO, the 1/26 18z ECMWF-AIFS provides a plausible outcome. It also has support from the NBM's probabilities. Currently the storm and its development remain beyond the range of the models' capability to skillfully resolve the synoptic details that will lead up to the possible event. Until then, the broader longwave pattern and its evolution offer insight. At this lead time, storm formation seems to be a reasonable scenario. A coastal or out-to-sea track are both realistic possibilities with the former still looking more likely than the latter. By Wednesday or perhaps Thursday, there should be greater consensus on the outcome, especially as the guidance will be starting to resolve the all-important synoptic details. For now, a moderate- or high-impact storm remains on the table.

If we're going pro, I am going to be Don's caddy.