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The lakes are shrouded in fog coming off the ice. At this rate the urban lakes will be ice free in a week or so. So far we’ve picked up under a 1/10” of rain. Far cry from the 0.50-1.00” totals advertised a few days ago.

The beginning of a series of rains has commenced. TWN has me at 19C/68F for Sat which would be seriously impressive with the snowpack and amt of ice on the lakes. I say 5% chance of verifying. WUN has 15C - I'll go with 16C prediction. If I somehow get to 20C (2%) that would be the 2nd earliest in modern records just 1 day behind Mar 8 2000 and 3 days ahead of Mar 4 2024. Storms are on tap during nox (overnight) with the temp rapidly rising to 13C. I'll be taking them seriously; my worst storms are now in early spring.

Yea. Both sups this evening and QLCS later after dark could produce.

I mean 11-12 days out….that’s a tough one imo..especially with cold lurking.

Looks like DT called out Jays Wintery Mix on Facebook for posting the HRDPS and referring to it as the NAM, you hate to see it @Ji

Overall this winter for the H5 pattern, I’ve seen it missing strongly at times in both directions. Now if we’re talking 2m temperatures, WxBell maps are cold biased.

Shorter wave lengths change the importance of various teleconnections. Some have difficulty accepting that there are no universal patterns that apply at all times. Some on X/Twitter were insisting on the importance of a PNA+ ahead of the recent blizzard. Undoubtedly, they must be confounded that it occurred with a strongly negative PNA. But not those who understand the synoptic patterns. During the second half of February, a PNA- is more conducive to big Northeast snowstorms.

guess you can write off next winter for the Midwest.

so, I've got to drive to Greenville SC on the 17th/18th and taking I81-77-85, any chance I run into any weather (as it looks now) along my journey? also be returning the 20/21st... thanks in advance for those who dive deep into the LR.

I haven't seen motion in a MI tornado like that before. The cloud of debris and dust at :37 looks like the condensation part. Fiercer than Dexter and Gaylord!

Got enough teeny "flakes" to almost cover the ground, but our daughter's flight PHL-PWM came right on schedule.

Wow, snow is just banding over your area now. Bet you end up with at least 8". Long live March!

EPS has been exhibiting a rather pronounced cold bias at times in the medium range. Have a feeling it’s getting too carried away with the troughing again

We had a 16" paste bomb which inverted the supporting bows of my Ranger's Tonneau cover. (We were out of state, came home 5 days later to find a 5'x6'x6" ice cube atop the cover.) Eustis at 1,300' reported 34.5" and we (Maine Public Lands) were finishing a multi-year harvest on the Redington Public Lot. That winter the work was all north of the AT with elev 2,400 to 2,900 - might've gotten 40" there. Last load passed thru the very narrow crossing of the AT (as permitted with stringent constraints) on 3/22 just as the snow got super heavy; no way normal plowing could've kept that 200' AT inner corridor clear, would've needed a BIG payloader.

two nice events, 15+ here and the cold and pack retention, I mean I still have about 10-15" depending on where in open areas, still piles of 4-5' in spots, probably almost gone this time next week but was a solid winter, didn't make climo yet snow wise yet, about a foot away still.

More cells firing to the west, might not be a bad idea for a small tor watch from around Gary to near lansing and surrounding areas

23-24, 15-16, 97-98, 91-92, 82-83, 72-73, 65-66

Thought this was wild from the other day. 3 deer floating on the ice between Detroit and Windsor.

What's the severe weather risk look like us tomorrow? I wasn't given it to much thought until I saw this storm in Michigan which has to be EF3+.

About 3" here with .35" of liquid precip so far...very wet. Snow has been falling at 33 degrees all afternoon.

Hard af

The 93 forecast language included "Life-threatening conditions". Only other time I can recall was the morning of Jan 9, 1998 - day 2 of the ice storm here. A line of strong TS had formed in eastern NY and forecasters were faced with the possibility of 50 mph gusts on ice-loaded trees and infrastructure. Fortunately, the storms dissipated quickly. This thread's storm brought 18-20 hours of steady 1/2"/hr snow on 20G30 NE winds, for 9.5". Farmington co-op recorded 14". Two more storms by mid-month added 11" then storms of 22-23 (16") and 30-31 (19") brought the March total to 55.5". Only the 61.5" of Dec 1976 in Fort Kent had more in my experience. Depth at 9 PM on 3/31 here was 48"; even FK never had that much that late (close, 47" on 3/31/84).

Union City in Branch County just got hit hard, this lone supercell is a prolific tornado maker.