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Crop sizes being "hard to separate out" is his defense for setting aside the latest scientific research demonstrating a clear link with temperature. The statistical basis is sound.

Back north

Temperatures are within a remarkably narrow range in this forum's area, 35 to 40F.

Spent some time hiking at patapsco today.

The window on the 23rd on the 12z EPS has a favorable Miller B look this run that could lead to a potential winter storm chance.

41f humidity 64% dew point 30f light rain 0.01” Total Snow Year 25.8”

0.14” so far, radar looks uniform

The error is again the pedestal/ transmitter... but yes if not replace, a major re-hab non the less.

Considering the high amount of down time, perhaps there should be discussion about whether to replace rather than repair the radar. Downtime has been a recurrent theme since at least last summer.

Here is the 12z EPS 24 hour precip & snow for the 23rd chance.

AI gfs agrees on miller b feb 23-24, just a tad north. Something to watch for any favorable trends (if any) in the coming week.

Euro was always kinda light with precip up here and that seems to be the case so far. 0.5” is gonna be a real stretch, but still a welcome soaker.

The window on the 23rd on the 12z EPS has a favorable Miller B look this run that could lead to a potential winter storm chance.

Yeah it would have turned out better if it was a straight continental railroad

And KDIX radar is offline again as of yesterday, surprise, surprise. FTMDIX Message Date: Feb 14 2026 08:42:09 The KDIX radar is down at this time. Technicians will be contacted later this mo rning to work to resolve the issue. We apologize for any inconvenience. ================== NOUS61 KPHI 141455 FTMDIX Message Date: Feb 14 2026 14:55:18 KDIX remains inoperable. ETs were contacted and will be in this afternoon to fur ther evaluate. Thank you for your patience. ================== NOUS61 KPHI 142224 FTMDIX MESSAGE DATE: FEB 14 2026 22:24 KDIX REMAINS INOPERABLE. ETS WERE UNABLE TO TROUBLESHOOT SUCCESSFULLY. RTS UNKNOWN

It’s really been rough.

Thanks, Don 1. I felt that at a minimum that the wording wasn’t the best, possibly due to haste. I may follow up with him on that to get better clarification. 2. He did mention the effect on crop sizes from the variable of climate/wx being hard to separate out. Doesn’t that include the variable of temperature?

Hoping to break 0.1” in another hour or two!!

2 potential windows in a less than ideal pattern-hard to ask for more. The 20th is the longer shot for now. The window centered on the 23rd looks better, but unfortunately as we get closer the looks have become less favorable lately. We just cant know yet.

The weather just hasn't been the same since the completion of the Trans Continental Railroad.

NAM is ok here mid week but likes Ray’s hood on north.

Light rain here for about the last hour. 42F currently. No cold air around unless you're on a chaise lounge outside. Snow pack still holding on.

What else we got? Nothing so chips in

I've noticed that HRRR often does that on an off run after a major run. Looks good on the 18z run and then much different on the 19z run. It'll prob go back north on the next run.