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I'm still very skeptical of this. 2003, 2010, and 2016 were all part of el nino events. Pretty much all the big events came either during an el nino and/or a +PDO. Even 1996, which was a la nina, had a +PDO. We currently have a -PDO and a slight -ENSO. If we get a huge event, it would be unprecedented given the PDO/ENSO state.

Should also see some squalls move across the region tomorrow...particularly along the Mass Pike. Timing late afternoon and evening

hot dawg, a non zero probability

Agreed

Yea definitely less than 4 days til go time now. Praying for no major jumps north..

@olafminesaw brings up a good point- this storm likely features the WAA “thump”. This is where heroes are made in the mix areas as that front end over performing or switching to mix too fast can make or break a storm. That is 100% something to watch for most areas. 2018 featured one of the heaviest front end thumps I can remember in Raleigh. We got 7-8” in like 6 hours before it switched to rain. In this case there will not be a switch to plain rain, but the thump might be just as important for storm total snowfall.

As the flakes gently closed their eyes, they continued to dream. Thank you b w,….. As always …

Just for fun

I think it’s time for a thread, I’ll start it once I think of a nice title

Poking around on my GSP forecast, kickoff time is actually around 10pm Friday. With that….we’re three days out now

it is not snowing next weekend

Amen. Noticed this morning that finger of precip stretching into NC seems to find an earlier and earlier arrival time. GSP now has it starting around 10 pm Friday night in my neck of the woods. If so, it’s down to 3 days

I will add to pay attention to the NAM within 48 hours of the storm. It does amazingly well in CAD setups with warm noses. Its burned many of us before

also I have 8" on the year and you all have maybe half that, so the likely north trend = reversion to the mean

I-95 dry slotted in 2016 as well. Lost quite a bit of accumulation

Somehow I bet you’ll manage to do alright if I had to guess.

there's literally nothing worse in this forum than reading model play-by-play without maps from non-mets . . .

^^^^^ THIS

What do you think the cap is for this storm? Why is the Euro solution less snowy than solutions like the UK?

The biggest challenge in all of this is going to be how far south the Arctic boundary can get before stalling. This is always a big challenge...the past several winters dealing with these scenarios I think there has been a tendency for models to be not aggressive enough with how far into the South the boundary gets. Also, in this case it is very feasible the sfc front gets deeper into the South while say front around 850 is held back as it pushes against stronger mid-level ridging from the strong ridging east of Florida. This would play a big role in where cyclogenesis ultimately develops but looking at the pattern over the Northeast I think we would stand a good shot at building this north enough to at least get a significant event to the coast.

Also if you use the beta version on the phone you have access to 6Z and 18z euros