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  2. I hadn't been looking at the long lead seasonal models. I'm surprised at how cold they all are for Dec-March. The newest cfs is really cold. Even the long range Euro last I saw had us near normal. It's usually always warm in the long range.
  3. Going to end up going from almost nothing to over 2 inches of rain just like that tonight
  4. Very close by but not really doing anything on the lake. Just enjoying a quiet week with the family. Doing some hiking, mainly. Also ventured down to Andrews for their Rail Tour (rail bikes on old tracks!), which is really cool. I recommend it, if you’re ever in the area.
  5. Well I definitely blew that one but in a good way. I ended up chasing that first supercell from the VA line to Carrboro. It has some pretty awesome structure at times and definitely incredible rising motion with the updraft, intense lightning, and visible circulation.
  6. Duke street and stonehill have trees down near me. Im close to Millbrook and six forks in the lakemont area. Quiet out now so you can hear all the generators running.
  7. Likewise lol. It was actually the weather channel app that warned us before the EAS alert to our phones. I have a livesteam on my Facebook where you can see the clouds twisiting. The sky was a worse blueish green than last week! I swear we don't usually have weather this interesting, only when you visit LOL
  8. Absolute deluge outside right now.
  9. Drove home to Staten Island where we just got 1.5 inches in the last hour
  10. Flash flood warning for si
  11. Yeah looks like we're mostly done
  12. I must be very close to you. We also have lost power, however I didn't notice the crazy wind, but am being told by my SO that it was worse than I thought. I also didn't see any hail but definitely super heavy rain. And a crazy amount of lightning with the power going out right near the end. I'm not far from Shelley lake in Raleigh if that helps nail down the area. Where is the tree down at?
  13. Some light rain remaining - just hit 3” for the day. Another extremely beneficial storm for many, as always some missed out on the heavier totals, especially east of the city
  14. I think the benefit of the current system is it gives local emergency services a chance to prepare for a likely event before its on the ground confirmed. The only way you would ever get the majority if the general population to pay attention to a tornado warning here is with old school air raid sirens, which might actually not be a bad idea for a spotted tornado
  15. Things falling apart maybe another hour or two of moderate rain.
  16. Rained at least 6 separate times at Deep Creek throughout the day today. A little break just before sunset and then it started to rain again.
  17. Saw Twisters the other day for the first time. God that was awful. Acting, CGI, Plot, and using big Met words and looking stupid saying them because it sounded as if was being read from a script. Overall, it looked like a B movie... IMDB 2.6/10
  18. Excited to report the first true “rain event” today since installing my Tempest and Tropo rain gauge! .91 in the Tropo and the haptic rain gauge of the Tempest recorded .87! Pretty darn close to each other!
  19. Today
  20. 15% chance of an area within 25 miles seeing rainfall that exceeds flash flood guidance. Kind of similar to SPC outlooks of having a certain percentage chance of seeing severe within 50mi or whatever it is. Flash flood guidance varies depending on recent rainfall (among other things, probably). Caveat is moderate risk on rainfall is not the same as a mod risk for severe. When I see a mod rain risk it’s noteworthy but not uncommon. A high risk is serious though—they almost always precede catastrophic flooding somewhere within the zone.
  21. What about the warm front position!!!! You were all over that and dogmatic last event! LOL.
  22. "Life-threatening" -- most inclement wx is life-threatening in some way. Why not just "dangerous?" That is all-inclusive for being injured and a fatality. Yet we see "extremely dangerous and life-threatening" in the same line en masse now. Superfluous wording and redundant. More is not always better.
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