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Fakersville is a magical place

Looks WPAC SST and Nina augmented. If the NEPAC continues cooling into Winter that outcome is very viable , imo.

If I gambled I'd bet 5 paychecks that that won't happen this winter!

Yeah, I agree. Think they're over playing the Nina. PDO is factored too . Highly doubt NEPAC SST'S are factored at all. Medium range continues to show cooling in that area so, who knows, maybe that's being further extrapolated by Seasonals. Due to that possibility, they could be extrapolating the WPO and EPO as well now. That would all favor pretty solid mildness as the WPAC is still very warm and medium range continues that pretty stable. There are also signs of the MJO hanging around P 6-7 mainly according to LR Guidance. So, SST extrapolation being factored irt that. I don't think the NATL SST'S are factored any at all at this Juncture by LR's. Maybe they do now. If so, I'd wager not highly factored.

low of 53F here in NW DC. Chilly!

i hope we get a big nor'easter this winter.

Despite finishing warmer than average, this was the 7th consecutive september where Detroit failed to officially hit 90, making it the longest stretch on record.

Right...this is what the MEI and RONI better convey. I agree the west PAC issue till an issue ...only thing that is keeping me measured. That said, I view that as more of a cap and don't expect this season to be bad.

boring rain storm in Florida.

Stop focusing on on ONI. RONI and MEI will border on moderate.

there is always tons of siberian snow cover in october has not helped nyc winters in a long time..

Even on a realistic scale that kind of gradient ain't been present since 2016, lol I feel like if/when "north and west of the city" becomes a thing again...maybe things are turning for the better.

Wet snow currently falling at 9000 feet and higher at Mammoth! Not accumulating, but this is pretty exciting this early, even for them! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge At Village level 8,100 feet it is a steady rain. You can see this in the puddles. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village Winter is approaching already in the eastern Sierra!

When the PDO eventually flips positive, even slightly so, and we get a bona fide El Nino. It has to happen sometime

It's not a true cold front though, it's more NE flow. Expect some clouds and drizzle to keep it cooler

40.6° for the low here

44 here currently with the temp falling fast.

Ouch. Good luck with that.

Unfortunately you are correct, and I remember someone mentioning the home brew part of the season is up next and it looks like it may have begun. These storms seem to be originating in odd places lately. And then there is this nasty storm, I really appreciate that the employees at the NHC will keep working even though they won't be paid during the shutdown. Humans, especially most decision makers, are really peculiar and I will never understand them.

Sandy hit NJ October 29. I like how it snowed two days later. WTF.

67 here

when will we get a year that's best case 09-10 and worst case 02-03

have a feeling I might pop on the pellet stove tomorrow morning.

Highs PHL: 72 New Brnswck: 69 EWR: 68 ACY: 68 TTN: 68 TEB: 67 ISP: 67 LGA: 66 NYC: 66 JFK: 66 BLM: 64

This is where my camp is-it’s really low but nowhere near last years. If I could post a photo of me walking across the bridge that is normally under water I would. Still-another crappy year where they drained the lake sI much to accommodate the kayakers and rafters on the yough river in Ohiopyle…..not caring about us boaters at the yough lake-such a shame to drain this gorgeous lake so the money makers stay in business…