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We'll see if anything happens. I lean towards it being mostly city south now as I think atmosphere may have been too overworked from earlier rain

Nice partly sunny day. 77/55

Worst at BWI was 22/23 with .2". Lol I wasn't living there, thank God, but it was no snowfest up here either. 72/73 was 2nd worse at 1.2", which remember well and which turned me into a full blown weenie as we had 2 WSW that yielded nothing and hit ROA to ORF. At least 1", if not all, of that 72/73 snowfall was an arctic front in 2/73. Lol if anybody up north wonders why I am the way I am when when it comes to snowfall, just find the annual snowfall numbers from BWI from 1972 thru 2019. The mental trauma is epic.

My low mark is 21.5" in 2023-24. Looking at all the strong Ninos, snowfall ranged from 20-45" here. So a realistic early guess for a strong nino for me would be 30-35". Much less dependent on the boom or bust storm than you guys.

gusts of 27 kt at Port Arthur, Texas

With the MLB lockout looming, maybe Mike Trout retires after the season and takes over. We all know Trout has a love for meteorology. [Most likely not going to happen (at least right now), but crazier things have happened. Realistically, though, the Phillies need to make a trade for Trout. Philly already has LeBron, now time for the baseball team to land the big fish.]

Anger I feel. So done with this.

Huge difference in climo between ORD & DCA tho

97/98 is the 2nd worst snow winter I've had, 5.2" total. 01/02 was the worst at 4".

Keep reality to yourself please, i like to dream.

I drove home right through that cell. Super heavy rain, lightning and thunder. Had to go down to 25mph on 287

Luck, good and bad, happens in pretty much all winters. Everytime you guys talk 82-83 i cringe because it was definitely the worst strong nino of the bunch here, but I also realize some bad luck was involved in January and February. The extremely uncharacteristic lack of snow here was likely an extra slap in the face coming off the very snowy 1981-82.

Last few winters have been generally good across the SE with some caveats. Are we still capable of pulling off a blockbuster? Remains to be seen… but we are due for one.

Looks like around 1" in this area. Good start to the month from a precip standpoint. As expected, nothing exciting or noteworthy from a t-storm standpoint, but I'll take the rain.

Should not be in 2026. There are forums that you can share multiple images like those. But I will use imgur from now on.

We rain.

1.31" rain here so far. 73.9/73.3, i.e., its really wet

weather events don't always need to be insurrections to be entertaining and enjoyable

August and Summer (Jun-Aug) were warm for basically the entire lower 48 this year. I fudged the scale on this to make it closer, but the pattern resembled a 1994, 2003, 2012, 2018 blend. In the Summer, 2003/2012 were both El Ninos in terms of SSTs (close to 28C). June-August was my hottest Summer on record: average temp of 81F here v. 80.4F (2011) previously. El Ninos that show up as both near record hot and near record dry are 1953, 1958, 2003, 2023. These are highs for the following Oct-May. Bold is colder v. 1991-2020. 1953-1954 72.6 58.4 42.9 50.3 61.4 58.9 76.8 81.0 62.8 1958-1959 68.6 58.6 54.6 45.4 51.2 59.6 70.4 78.8 60.9 2003-2004 74.3 56.3 47.8 48.4 48.2 65.3 65.7 81.8 61.0 2023-2024 74.8 57.9 49.7 48.5 56.1 60.4 70.8 81.2 62.4 No strong signal for any time-frame being cold, but March is closest followed by February. You've got no real cold signal at all in these years in the Fall, Oct 1958 is -2F, Nov 2003 is -1F, but those are washed out by the others. Dec 1953 is about -5F, but Dec 1958 is +7F. Jan 1959 is -3F, others warm. Its really Feb/Mar with the best shot. Feb averages out to about 1991-2020 mean high, and March averages out 2F below it. Even for March, you have a warm counter-example. Oct-May Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Oct-May 1953-1954 0.46 0.91 0.29 0.20 0.07 0.24 0.00 0.51 2.68 1958-1959 1.72 0.37 1.35 0.17 0.04 0.42 0.43 0.80 5.30 2003-2004 1.58 0.49 0.11 0.10 1.17 0.67 3.00 0.00 7.12 2023-2024 0.00 1.00 1.01 0.33 0.41 0.27 0.33 0.06 3.41 0.94 0.69 0.69 0.20 0.42 0.40 0.94 0.34 Precip has mixed signals too, but each month from Oct-Dec has 2/4 years with 2x average precipitation or more, so that'd be my guess for the wetter period. January looks much drier than average with no above average months, and Mar-May is very erratic but finishes near average as a blend, largely on 2003-04. Best guess is 2-3 wet months from Oct-May. Snow is much more interesting - about 12.3" total, which is what I keep getting when looking at similar patterns. Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb are all 3/4 cases of measurable snow, March is 2/4. My research has previously shown that hot/dry Summers locally favor "out of season" heavy snow. You can see Oct-Nov/Mar-May snow averages 4.0 inches in these years, which is high for those months locally. November has the strongest signal relative to average for a snow event (more likely than average (75% v. 50%) and higher totals than average (2.7" v. 1.0"). December has one of the top ten snow months locally as well, Dec 1958. 1953-1954 0.0 7.5 3.7 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1 1958-1959 0.0 2.2 14.2 1.7 0.6 4.8 0.0 0.0 23.5 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.4 2023-2024 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.4 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 Blended: 0.0 2.7 5.0 1.8 1.5 1.4 0.0 0.0

The 12z GFS starts to break down the furnace by about the 15th. It has snow almost in northern Maine at some point during that run. It may be grasping at straws, but there is a glimmer of hope. I think we at least see a few cold fronts being to break the pattern by mid-month. We need a tropical system to break this pattern, but it is tough getting tropical systems anywhere near the US coastline during El Nino. I am really hoping the heat on modeling is feedback. We are entering that timeframe where models will miss the first couple of cold fronts. The GFS tends to do a little better during fall than the Euro in regards to spotting cold. The ridge in the middle of the country has been TOUGH to budge this summer. I know those folks have to be ready for it to depart!

They are definitely beer months. Months of beer. Months full of beer. Beer for months.