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Hes talking about winters in general, in typical Tip fashion, not just the coming winter. If he wants "a steady diet of nickle and dime storms that add appeal as an active winter pattern" then he needs to go back to his old stomping grounds in west Michigan. That happens very frequently. And BOTH the Great Lakes and New England had one of their all-time snowiest decades on record in the 2010s, which is not ancient history. I sometimes think people long for courier and ives paintings over reality when remembering winters of yore lol.

Currently 8th lowest on NSIDC area. (GaWx has been posting AMSR2 area which is good too, but for consistency purposes, I track NSIDC area since methodology is unchanged since 1979.) Chances of top 5 now are getting slimmer by the day. Too much extended cold on the ESS/Beaufort side this season. You usually want a strong start there so that you are eating away at the CAB in late July and early August rather than wasting those few precious final weeks of higher insolation trying to melt out remnant ice in the Chukchi/ESS/Beaufort.

feels like yesterday when the twin cities was crushing it

I agree. I wouldn't be surprised if there are multiple category 4 or above atmospheric rivers this winter. I think it's just impressive that the guidance is hinting at the development of the subtropical jet for the September-November period. That didn't even show up in the fall forecast during the weaker 2023-2024 El Niño. Details about placement are beyond what the guidance can simulate at such timeframes.

0.05” overnight which brings my August total up to 0.20”

Problem is he has history (strong Nino's) to support his views. You don't have to go out on a limb to forecast above normal temps this winter. Hopefully we are all wrong.

If anything from the ATL side can survive the Godzilla Nino...

https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1601209068040844&id=100044552974374

You need your own YouTube or Twitch Channel !!!

was down there last week on vacation-was very nice but no waves since the Atlantic was quiet

2 years ago today, August 18, 2024, a day Oxford CT and surrounding areas will never forget. I remember looking at the radar in amazement but with the realization that this was going to be a flooding disaster in the hardest hit areas.

Sure. We always laughed at the 3k orographics and knew it was overdoing it in the mtns…it was more of a signal rather than taking the QPF verbatim. The 12k always seemed more zonked in coastals to me even near go-time. The running joke here in the winter is we’re always waiting for that run the day before a SNE biggie that jackpots here to northern VT. But the 3k was really good with CAD and (imo) ptype in those overrunning situations. Convection is hit or miss, but I never saw it as any worse than the other hires models. I just feel like it had its purpose and times where it was useful. We still seem reluctant to dive into full 4dvar like ecmwf. I haven’t talked to Alicia B. in years so I should pick her brain more, but maybe you can explain to me while we’re still messing with 3.5dvar or other hybrids. I remember a study many years ago that showed the gfs error scores were similar to the ec when using their data assimilation. So it seems like there’s value there.

Ahh, one w/ MPAS! So @CoastalWx need to stop complaining! We have a version of the RRFS to compare and we know it is better.

WHAN-bulence time!

The 3km NAM is all over the place for convection, both in areal coverage and location, so I do not use it for that. Also consistent high bias for QPF, esp. orographics, so it goes really nuts w/ snowfall. And any NAM is useless for TC situations, as it never was designed for them. The model initialization is "quick and dirty" for a "first look." That's why it often does odd things beyond about 36 hr. Model initialization is key, and that why the ECMWF is often better and why it is available later b/c they take care for the model initialization. The value goes beyond the weenies that understand the above. For those hype-masters that are always looking for the model that shows "the worst," having something like the NAM just ends up promoting bad/misinformation b/c of it multiple shortcomings. Yes, all models have shortcomings, but let me put it this way, all those memes about the NAM? (the most classic meme attached). They exist for a reason! Yes, we are "used to it" for bias, but we will get used to the RRFS biases as well and its MPAS model core will be implemented in 2028. @CoastalWx needs to move on and realize you can't have it the same forever. By that logic, he would still want the LFM and NGM!

Yes, and it's had a negative correlation with winter during the modern era, meaning -AO maybe favored this winter.

Tell me why it won't snow ever again in 5,486 words or more- JK

Water temps 75 - 78 along the NJ beaches / shorte

DPs are still nasty this morning, hanging in the low-mid 70s. should get some relief this evening and tomorrow

Issuing a winter outlook, even a preliminary one, in August is dicey.

2019 was at least dry until mid-October, which helped lower the humidity. September 2018 had multiple days of monsoon rains, amounting to almost 10 inches, and only 14 days with no precip.

Heh... that doesn't even look like a climate inference here. It looks like a straight up geophysical response. Like in the model process, the boreal Pacific/seasonality presses up against that colossal heat source between the Date Line and Central N/A. Rather simplistic arithmetically, too. Like two factored: seasonally cooling N + supremely hot S = boom jet. I only mention it cuz of the "C" in C3S. Doesn't that mean 'climate' ? It brings to mind ... I haven't heard much talk about AR phenomenon. "Atmospheric Rivers" are a real thing. Their identity I've recently felt has been over applied and (no pun intended) thus watered down. Like every time California was getting a cut-off low over the lower G of Alaska, sending spoke waves of wind and rain into the west coast we were getting AR headlines and I'm like no - not really. I mean it may be that the definition can apply? But the origination of the Atmospheric River identification of phenomenon was linked to what is called a "Pineapple Express" - from HA, a fire hose sets up... and it's more like a hemispheric event than a local pattern ordeal. 'Sides, those Cali reservoir recovery events were surprisingly during La Ninas. Whole nother weirdness... Anyway, the pummeling California took in 1983 was (apparently) tied to a super Nino of the era; now that was an AR/Pineapple Express. So, the stuff above can be right in principle, but the placement could end up N of that axis just the same. And maybe, just maybe is an early hint

Excessive heat warning once again. Currently at 10:45 am it is 92/83 for a feels like of 118. And it absolutely feels like it too.

Recorded 0.1" of rain from the surprise morning event. Definitely a wetter period as of late with recordable rain for 5 of the last 7 days, though totals have been small, only totaling up to 0.47". Guess I don't have to water so much this week.