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IF the NHC forecast were to play out, Melissa could end up having the 3rd highest ACE on record for so late in the season of the last 100 years behind only Mitch of 1998 and the Nov Cuba H of 1932! Wilma wouldn’t qualify because it dissipated too early (10/25). Going back further to 1851 on the record, only storm #6 of 1896 would appear to quite possibly have higher ACE later than Melissa again assuming NHC forecasts verify. So, Melissa could very well end up in rare company regarding the lateness of a very large ACE.

Much respect. This is the way it needs to be done!

36 here too.

46 this morning

Low of 36. Brought the big palm tree into the house for the season yesterday, guy's been with us for a few years now, doing well. The seasons, they are a changin'.

Your old school for sure.

34 for the low here

It’s way too early to pop any champagne but it looks promising at least.

Only got down to 45.5 here

36.6 this morning.

Coldest temp of the season this morning here in Maytown, checking in at 33.4 degrees First frost of the season here at my house, and it was a doozy. Solid blanket of white. Interestingly, I saw no other frost outside of Maytown on my way to work. It's been the exact opposite several times over the past few weeks. Had to scrape my car windows before leaving for work. No, I do not start my car and go back in the house. I like to be out and scrape. (with the engine defrosting)

Yeah, that's unacceptable. It was a comfortable 61 in our house this morning.

39.9

40F right now at home in Calvert. Game cam sent me a pic at 7am showing 33F at the cabin which is the coldest I've seen so far there too.

31 was the low.

41 for the low.

35 in Great Falls with light frost.

Recon reporting a much more organized storm this morning. Well defined center, pressure down towards 1002 mb, LLC had been pulled under the robust convection

37F for the low on the weather station....frost in usual spots on my way to work in Northeast, MD.

It’s probably a combination of factors with this being the first El Niño with the North Pacific so warm. Plus the lower aerosols got a boost after the new 2020 shipping regulations. So there were probably multiple factors which enhanced the warming both and before this event. So the El Niño was probably the trigger and the magnitude of the warming came from other places than directly the El Niño 3.4 ONI. There is another theory that the PCC could have also been involved since this El Niño started with so much 1.2 warming. But even past El Niños with strong 1.2 warming had a lag in global temperatures into the fall and not an immediate spring increase. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-52731-6 Instead, if the cyclic IPO dominates the recent cooling, we may expect a strong warming when it reverses. In support of the first possibility, we have identified an emerging climate change signal in the tropical Pacific across different observational datasets and we call it the PCC.

some frost on the rooftops here this morning but nice sunny day on tap

Down to 25 this morning. Frost everywhere

Almost all of our oak leaves our down. Maybe 30% left... they are usually on the trees until early November

Are you using DAW or your own sensor? I saw 37° there.

Maples are mostly sticks here now, but yeah…the oaks went quick. They’re starting to turn more brown than gold here now.