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Numbers from the NWS for through 7pm Tuesday is for 3" and high end is for 5".

Well that just blows chunks.

Oh geez

The 12z op had 0.20” to HFD and ORH. The AI has barely had precip anywhere in the region until recently. I’ve been okay with the EPS and AI ens. But I’d like to see more consistency from the ec ops before riding anything.

I have to agree with that, at least for New England in general. Euro used to lock on and not let go, and be right far more often than not. Seems ever since the upgrade, it hasn't had that solid performance. Maybe other parts of the globe it's better, but i just don't see it here

Cloudy. 27.6°

A VERY strong candidate for post of the year award...

I feel like a new man knowing the Srefs are getting on-board. Giddy up!

96 hrs was your moniker I believe. I am 100% certain you were just as unsure with the 84 hr 2005 Euro as you are today. Say that knowing you are the best. What has improved by leaps and bounds is 5H heights but sensible weather 84 hrs nah not seeing it.

My wife is already gearing up to tell me I was wrong and that it actually does snow in Mattapoisett.

I like the Eps better. Decently below freezing 850's and a swath of snow seemingly headed right for us.

Had to go to work so I’m a little out of the loop on how the storm is evolving but stepped outside to major rippage. About 7” on the ground (despite our competitor measuring 1.1” ). Looks like a batch of dry air moving in before the final wave in Illinois slides through. 9” seems plausible. Then we’ll see what bonus we get from the lake tomorrow.

I think you all are overestimating how good the forecasts/model guidance was 10 or 15 years ago. We used to have SWFEs in the late 2000s and early 2010s hammering DC like 4 days out and then mixing got into S NH by verification. Back in the days when Ekster was trolling Nikolai 4 days out on how the GFS DC jackpot was a great sign for New England. Once we got inside 84 hours, we started getting deadly at times (and all of us knew many of the model biases back then as they were more distinct)….but even then, we had plenty of crazy moves inside of 3 days.

6.9” at ORD through 6PM. 6.0” at RFD.

HRRR 3km likes some moderate snow showers for DC and points NW.

At some point when Dendrite stops trashing Euro EPS AI then you know its on.

EPS crushes SE Mass. must be wrong.

We're officially in the model war portion of the program. 0z will be the most important runs of the season. I'm expecting convergence soon.

Never said anything else Even superstars have bias.

EPS members shifting west.. its coming

The main reason for our nina struggles and why tracking is a pain. Chaos and it rarely goes right

Went from rain overnight to snow now with a current temp of 32 degrees.

GFS went from not a chance to 4.5" imby

I've made my yearly transition to wanting a snowstorm, so I'm in.

anyone care to extrapolate euro 18z?