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I’m not sure why I’m seeing people touting the -PDO + super nino combo as a cold/snowy signal for the east when that isn’t supported by historical precedence. The super nino obviously isn’t going anywhere, so I would think those rooting for a snowier outcome in the east would want the PDO to rise, not remain negative.

Today broke a record cool high in Raleigh: 74°. The old record was 76° in 1921. Greensboro tied a record cool high of 73 degrees.

Ended up with 2.85" today. Finally passed 20" for the year. Would love to get some more tomorrow. We're making significant inroads against the drought, hopefully we can keep it up.

Gotta' love how Florida is still in the snow despite being south of the mean slp track depicted on that map. The "A" part I believe...the "I" part, nasso' much.

Canadian looks like it did an OK job on precipitation for July in the US. It had a bad read on the SE/SW US placement, but pretty closer for northern precip. The cooler than average middle of the US didn't verify at all though. I think we'll see similar model issues all Fall-Spring. Moisture is much more directly tied to the subtropical jet/SOI/how strong the El Nino is. The temperature pattern is PDO centric. Most interesting outcome for winter would be if subtropical jet remains very strong and PDO weakens enough to not be a major influence, with the Arctic/Pacific patterns fighting for dominance week to week or month to month.

2.35 storm total

Today's Highs PHL: 84 New Brnswck: 83 EWR: 82 TEB: 81 LGA: 81 ACY: 80 TTN: 80 BLM: 79 JFK: 79 ISP: 79 NYC: 79

They’re all at my house. That’s what I use for my Cocorahs station, I like it a lot more than the standard gauge I used before. It’s worth the price upgrade. The little metal rods to deter birds are great- my standard gauge was a porta-potty for every bird passing through.

Yes, I agree. 30-yr does have practical uses, but for long-term climate, and I am talking on geological scales, it is useless. Things exist in a rather large range from a local to global scale when you consider how long the Earth has been around, and that's ok. Geez, the range of things from a climatic POV over millions of years? Also, I have seen things done w/ 30-year normals, both on a deliberate and accidental level. Using some random 30-year period to scale wx and records in the present. Which 30-year normal baseline is best to quantify changes or trends to the present? You see one can pick and chose to get desired results here either way. And why 30 years? Is this something significant climate-wise about 30 years? Given that is a tiny speck geologically, I would say not. It sounds more like a human convenient period (generational?) than anything else! We have a tendency to scale and build things around what humans consider a "long-time," but that does not work on geological scales. And then you run into period of record varying greatly for many locations across the globe, so there is big challenge here. We have to have something for a baseline, but having something does not mean it works well for all things.

1.19” so far! .

Yup! I loved my 2014, so I wanted my next car to be an Accord too.

OT but heard this on AM radio today. banger with the sax. minor hit

Checking in with a beer. We've got our bases covered in here tonight.

There are flash flood warnings just west of Bertha's position right now, for 3-5 inches of life-giving rain! Maybe Bertha will get just east of Buda and gift me with 5 inches of flood-provoking rain!! The El Nino is getting so monstrous that I am really looking forward to this autumn and winter with incredible amounts of rain!!!! That subtropical jet is gonnabe LOADED with quintillions of tons of tropical moisture! The title to the Nino on the main sub on this board should be changed to 2026-2017 Brobdingnagian El Nino. We have never seen a Nino like this since this globe cooled. This is NOT a Super Nino. It's well beyond that now, this thing is an all-time historic monster.

There have been a few but it does seem to be noticeably quieter.

And leave out conditions have improved in the last week in SNE. And in the large pix, I find it hard to believe that srn RI and SE MA are still svr drought conditions given the 8-11" of rain in the past 3 weeks (the way the drought conditions are calculated I have long have issues w/ despite how it isn't just about rainfall). Although the cut off day of 7/21 at 8am missed the big rains the following 24 hr, the post could have said how it has improved just in the last 48 hr which the map did not account for. Omission of facts to promote a particular narrative or prevent deflating hype! And really, how much of daily routine life has been impacted for the general public b/c we have had drought conditions for awhile? Yes, there are some impacts but nothing that we can't handle/absorb and have done so for a very long time. The way the MSM pushes drought often you'd think it is debilitating issue and our water supply is running out!

Ah yes, "Heavy Snow Threat" in Orlando. Thanks, AI slop.

Flash flood warning for Asheville.

Keep those troughs coming!

Let's not forget....I LOVE Fall. So as much as I love winter, not yearning yet. However, July 5th starts my annual "bring on Fall" attitude.

Cigar on the porch, what a night. My Tropo precip gauge came today so that should usher in the next phase of drought.

I believe that was Billy Martin's 1st day as manager of the Yankees.

As if what happened last August has *any* relevance or influence on what this August will be like? Useless filler statement in the context of forecasting. This would be like saying, "recall last winter CoastalWx has two 20"+ snowstorms in Weymouth..." for this upcoming winter fcst. And not to leave out Wxwiz, for July 10 any year that has a tor risk on this day, "recall on July 10, 1989 we had 17 tors in the NEUS for its biggest outbreak on record!"

How much did it set you back to fill up your truck with freedom fuel today?