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And it may not.

LMAO at the cope. And LMAO at the warm neutral copers. Have you even checked out Gary Lezak's forecast Many models and mainstream forecasters have been busting hard

Models are busting hard, so I'm not even paying attention.

At some point, the exceptional pace we’ve seen in the Atlantic has to cease, and this is the best candidate for that since 2017. Just looking objectively, there are a lot of significant caution flags on a big activity season. Same as @GaWx, when I speak in here it’s based on as objective an analysis as I can present. Long time folks know that, but for the newer people—that’s how I roll.

Right about where we should be.

2 parts-the front slipping down from the north gets activated later today but that activity is mainly N and W of the city. Then a wave/storm forms on the stalled front and moves up late tonight/tomorrow-ending late day/early eve

Dumb question where the heck is this rain coming from. Closest rain is well severs hundreds of miles away.

It does. It’s like 3 hours from my door to like Logan Airport but feels like it should be 6-8 hours haha.

Sometimes I feel like you guys are thousands of miles away lol.

We’ve clawed our way out of the 40s… now 50F. I thought it was going to be nicer today. Everywhere else 15-20F warmer to the SE.

I’m sure the drought that summer actually helped to get that record low the same as it helped the record highs. I remember I think it was July 2001 that also had a pretty good cold snap in early July. I think we had highs only in the 60s with sun and some spots in the lower peninsula even had frost I believe.

I fully agree in the short term. When we cross the 2c threshold and the negative consequences become so glaringly obvious there will be across the board support for change. When sea level rises another 3 feet you start inundating extremely valuable coastal land. When summer temps are so high in the worlds bread baskets that cereal crops can no longer grow. That’s when the general populace has to wake up. When the destruction of wealth leds the charge. Capitalism is highly flawed in regards to long term greater good tendency. As we currently have the knowledge and tech to prevent most of this from happening.

Probably a half to 3/4" with more east west and north

I really don't understand the image. So, most of the Upstate and all of Western NC are colored yellow, meaning "Slight" Risk. Yet, the description says that the circled area "WILL SEE" especially large hail. Wouldn't that mean that they are under a High Risk? Or maybe it mean all of the area is under a slight risk for hail, but if it does hail in the circled area, it will be large hail. See why I'm confused?

Still in D1 even after the 2"+ of precipitation from the latest system. Supposedly due to low stream flow and ground moisture. Not the case in my area. There is a stream (Furnace Brook) that runs through my property and it is anything but low. More like roaring or raging.

@Damage In Tolland

We have seen a nice improvement since last fall as it’s tough to keep a really dry pattern going in this much wetter climate.

Sorry, this is most likely not the right place for this question... but what is stein? Thanks

Why does it have to rain everywhere but where people actually live? Lolol

Having a 15% Hatched for large hail is nothing to sneeze at for our Mountain folks. I'll be watching to see how things unfold for our neighbors in Eastern Tennessee in the afternoon. It's a good day to keep an eye on the weather.

Summer stunner in Watertown, car thermo @83!

Local action without a major outbreak is tough to do in East Tennessee. These are really the best days! Work isn't nuts, but we still got a shot at seeing a good shelfie or random ping pong ball. Oh I should be careful about what I wish. China had giant hail yesterday. We don't need that! Golfball is the red line where it goes from neat stuff to big trouble. We also have a 2% tornado which feels broad. I'd focus that right on the east-west boundary that will sharpen up by late afternoon. It's forecast along or just south of I-40. If it can stay up there, the Upper Cumberland Plateau has a history of modest tornadoes beneath otherwise meh upper-level shear. I believe being elevated promotes a stronger surface wind; then add a boundary, and it's just enough low level shear. Elsewhere I feel like shear is just not quite there. Upper levels are modest. Low levels get a little veered south of I-40. We'll see.