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That’s for Hanover I’m talking Lwx

FOLKS Exceptional Synoptics call for exceptional care, and in the equinox seasons if you've got big numbers on the cold side, you should be prepared for big numbers on the warm side. This system is no exception. CAM guidance from this morning's 12z runs show a variety of scenarios and evolutions. When in doubt about storm mode or coverage, falling back on the synoptics is usually the best forecast. In this scenario, the synoptic evolution is clear. A large mid-latitude trough exhibiting two distinct mid/high level wind-maxima rounding the base of the trough is creating a primary low through the upper mid-west while the secondary (later) wind maxima emerges over the southeast and quickly ejects through the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this second wind maxima large scale ascent through upper-level divergence will cause mass flux response from the Carolina's northward into southern PA. As the secondary wind maxima / embedded trough tilts negative an area of lower pressure will develop east of the blue ridge in the Piedmont region of North Carolina and quickly traverse northward. Along this embedded low, guidance that has taken this solution has backing wind vectors in the lowest 1km relative to the Bunkers right motion. This produces large curvature hodographs in the lowest 1-2km's followed by a storm relative weakening in the mid-levels, with exceptional ventilation in the upper levels. The kinematics from the Blue Ridge to about the US301 corridor from North Carolina to the M/D line in our region are exceptional. Storms that form ahead of the main pre-frontal line that exceed 30kft tops or start producing significant amounts of lightning will be capable and likely will produce long-tracked significant tornadoes. A violent (EF-4) level tornado cannot be ruled out either if instability increases due to pre-frontal warming / breakout sunshine. Storm motions will exceed 50kts and while potentially photogenic, will be un-chaseable except for those who position themselves ahead of the storm 20-30 miles in advance. The highest risk will be from about noon in North Carolina Piedmont to about 7pm in Southern Maryland. Storm coverage in this area ahead of the main pre-frontal trough / squall is uncertain and will have to wait till tomorrow morning to see what debris / storm outflow from the ongoing convection off-shore of South Carolina brings northward. For the pre-frontal squall line: Embedded supercells that produce narrow corridors of 60-80 mph winds seem likely in RFD regions. Especially storms that form ahead of the squall line and get absorbed / merged in with the squall line have the potential to produce strong gusts. Power outages in these narrow corridors (3-5 mi wide) could be substantial. The lack of leaf out on the trees up our way will be beneficial, still, the strengths of the gusts in the enhanced regions will be enough to down branches onto lines. Given the unseasonable cold of the airmass behind the cold front, warming shelters and means of finding warmth Monday into Tuesday as power is restored will be of concern. If I have time this evening, I'll do a historical perspective and get some analogs.

Lee surface low would make this legit MOD risk for tor/svr winds

Welp....

So is the wedge what could limit severe risks if it hangs on?

I’ll give it a B-. It was good in that we got SOMETHING however some of it was wasted on the cold and not much happening around here anyway.

South wind really started picking up in the last hour. Gusting between 40-50 mph. Temp is up to 64.

Yeah, but relatively speaking (for this scenario, and climatologically) this is plenty CAPE, probably 750-1000. Don’t really need the CAPE when you’ve got so much else going for you, so not a typical HSLC setup where that would be a limiting factor.

Just 13 days away at the end of March….and on an operational model….what could possibly go wrong?? Lol

The qualm before the storm

Need it more than neutral

Point and click again not displaying the storm threat. Not even mention severe in grids. Not sure why this keeps happening.

Occasional rumbles of thunder, steady rain, and down to 38 degrees.

Small flakes in Traverse City right now. Waiting to see how the icing works out.

The Charlotte DMA local TV media and the Charlotte Observer have been covering it since yesterday. Charlotte is own its own when it comes to weather forecasting. Look at my 1st and 3rd post here as to why.

That won't cut it in late March

Been a sleet/freezing rain fest for the past couple hours. Bright banding overhead is pushing reflectivities very high

Im seeing "HSLC" a lot. Does that stand for "high shear, low CAPE"?

@stormtracker

https://x.com/forecaster25/status/2033247105238569123

Yeah you are right about that. Merrill is pretty nice. I worked for Canadian National railroad as a freight train conductor when I was living there.

LOT generally agrees with you. Seems like they're not really buying into the high totals the Euro has for the western suburbs too.

Just think they are still clearing up trees from that severe snow storm that hit here. There are a lot of trees still leaning over roads. If those winds are bad with the rain, that will bring the rest of them down. I get off work at 2 p.m. and wondering if the bay bridge maybe closed for traffic. I guess I'll take a overnight bag for a hotel.

I remember reading about this back in that 2012 storm we had. Crazy that happened up here.