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This. That’s what @wxmvpete was hitting on as well. Arctic air with overrunning is a recipe for widespread ice.

That's a lot of vert for cross country

yeah, RAPGW, 3Z was like nothing and 9Z went nuts with that band over CT

RAP is like 4-5” for you lol.

The RGEM/Canadian is the only operational camp that never really wavered much with this system showing a moderate storm for Sunday/S. night and never really liked Saturday and kept it confined to the NW hills/Berkshires/Taconics, at least in the past several cycles. Of course the AI has been pretty steadfast as well with the GFSAI more bullish than the AIFS. Well see what ends up happening, there is still about 48-54hrs to go but i just wanted to note that.

24 / 8 off was down to 19. Cold today mid 30s. Weekend / Monday light snow / showers, flurries accumulations much discussed and much to be determined but looking like an overall Sat sticks on cars and concrete Coating to an inch or so. Sunday more snow north and east. Monday unknown. Perhaps the bigger story is the building overall cold the bext 13 days. Coldest of the next 5 is Tuesday/Wed with highs stuck in the 20s and some single figit lows. Cold reloads in spikes of 1-2 day much below normal 1/24-1/25 and again between the 1/26-1/28 period. Looks like moderation as we move into next month. Storms TBD in the 1/21 - 1/27 period look to have ingredients key one - cold, now all we need is the storm track.

What a loaded GFS run! Of course it's the GFS though.

Heh ... should that 06z GFS run verify, it would go quite some distance in recovering seasonal weather chart dopa hit deficits

That run was nuts lol

Ukemt also looks nice tomorrow for some folks

The Wisconsin-Illinois state line is a naturally occurring snow boundary. It’s wild.

always room for a messenger shuffle in final 36 hours.

If the models can continue to hold the frontogenic signature, I'll be more enthusiastic about it. I do think the Hudson Valley can wind up with 1"-2" amounts (colder readings), but the City and nearby suburbs still looks like a coating to an inch. I agree about the uncertainty regarding CT, lower Hudson Valley, and central NJ. The models are still jumping around with the QPF (the 0z GFS was probably an outlier with almost 0.40"). A realistic ceiling for the City is probably around 0.30", as fewer than 20% of EPS members have 0.30" or more. The ceiling might be somewhat higher in the areas you highlighted for banding. Finally, we agree that NYC will have a minimum temperature below 33° (probably 30°-31° very early), but most of the precipitation will likely fall when the temperature is 33°-34°. I used the 33° minimum as a proxy because most or all of the precipitation will fall with above freezing temperatures. That still hasn't changed on the overnight guidance.

NWS for my region sounds like the only hope may be that temps don't rise as highly as expected on Saturday, so it takes less time to get cool enough on Sunday. Maybe something to keep an eye on for a few of us.

Currently 14.8/7.0 at 7 am after a 14.4 low. High was 23.5. Awesome pinkish red sunrise this morning with the high cirrus moving in.

Yes... if only.

It’s Friday…so…. here is the combined 6z GFS snow map through the end of January just for fun & to show the potential if it all would come together… if only…!

GSO got down to 17 this morning

I think we could have some days remain in the single digits...key will be delivery here. Airmass is real-deal extreme, however, for NE it's all about the delivery. We need it more from the N or NNW...if it's from the NW or especially WNW, it modifies more.

0z UKMET is wetter than the GFS. Has about a half inch of precip for my yard.

That might be the key for many on here

Super active 6z GFS run with multiple Winter storm threats It features a Next Friday snow chance. Then Next Sunday has a snow to mix back to snow chance. The the middle of the following week it has a coastal that just brushes us, but has high upside potential. What a run!

With the way models are looking, I think someone somewhere is going to get a really severe ice storm.

The past 4 years has engraved that in my mind at this point, hard to shake that gut feeling that all snow will fail around here.....Drink half full thought is that maybe we score both and leads into a 2-3 week blitz. Jury is still out though