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Biggest run of our lives?

Good for Tennessee? lol

LOL ... haha yup, set up the easy recliner with towels, tie off the upper arm with the rubber...and start tapping the hit vein, the dopa delivery is always here!

EPS starting to get busy. Another good sign.

That makes things easier, huh? But was he wrong?

Yep!

For the record, I have to google have the $h!t you people say. But I'm learning!

12z ICON is a swing and a miss for Storm #1

Gosh, Pivotal is so much faster. Was refreshing WxBell and am 40 hours behind.

Looked better initially but the NS sw phasing was delayed vs previous runs. Good in one direction, bad in another. Par for the course

no doubt, could be one of the more exciting 12z runs in a long time, or just more of the same, quick tease and disappointment ...

not that anyone asked but ... i feel now until Feb 8 is winter regardless of temperature anomalies. it's really more of whether the pattern is compensating for the sun challenges at this latitude/dates. That doesn't make it non-winter though. the earth really needs to get it's tilt across whatever degrees from vertical it is on or around Feb 8 before i consider non-winter. "consider" - that doen't mean declared. It depends on the year at hand. Obviously, in 2015... Feb 8th didn't mean shit. But, other years, you feel the sun and south side flower beds have little crokus shoots. the snow's been beaten back to the shady woods and you're putting up +5s ... it's not very winter like when it's like that and then combined, the sun's left the min and soaks us. so it depends on the year. but without the sun, heh... it's winter. it's just a matter of whether the winter is what we want it do be.

Nope, still too late. But we're getting there.

Never mind they are both standardized. For some reason the CFS forecast looks lower than the other chart. Figured I would also add these two to show the progression better and the overall potential impacts.

Still want it more negative but maybe the NS can help it tilt by gametime

ICON gonna be so close, need that trough to go negative a little earlier but yeah we're in the game.

Hmm. Icon seems to be digging more west. Steeper ridge out west.

Lol, ended up with almost 4" here. On the high end of what most models showed 24 hours out.

ICON has me interested

Also I like where the tendencies are on the ensemble. And the heights themselves definitely trended more neutral. Only caveat as WxUSAF said is that it still needs to nudge west to really put us in the canonical bullseye for an h5 leading into a coastal.

Should've been UVA's spot. Not that we would've done as good as Miami... probably. Still stings a bit.

Rumblings on some longer range guidance of major cold returning to the central and eastern U.S. once past 1/17. We'll see but there is still a bitter cold pool of air over NW Canada and Alaska and it isn't going away soon. Hard to imagine how we avoid at least some of it with increasing signal for +PNA developing. Stay tuned....more to come. Snowfall / storm track as usual is uncertain. Cold could overwhelm the pattern and keep snowfall on the limited side.

couple of models selling a DAB+ stat padder

Walking the dog yesterday felt so different compared to recent weeks. Sun, Temps near 40, no wind... today will be even more springlike