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Cold is not favored in the East during February AO+/NAO+ dates. Nearly two thirds are warmer than normal.

If that one doesnt hit, then the one right on it's heels looks like something ready to pop. Timing/spacing is critical w/ so many vorts in the chute. Could be lotsa nail biting for us starved ones down here. Just seeing the pattern evolution and amount of chances, I'm happy at that...for now.

The snowpack has mostly melted IMBY. Just piles left at this point. Finally a decent view of the lake ice today. Not much out there east of the western basin. The upcoming warm temps and rain should melt quite a bit in the western basin.

Its not looking good. I feel like we wait til after the 20th for anything significant

We need that full phase to capitalize but so far, our source issue for cold looks better. Some really cold, dry air lurking just to the north…The gfs would likely be fine in that regard at this range - 1032 over lower Ontario. CAD would likely trend stouter until go time. Icon is less enthused about the thermals but shows exactly what you can do if the northern stream and southern stream decide to mingle. It was very close to a solid 4-8” event for central/western NC northward. Just needed a few small tweaks.

The 12z GEM manages a neutral tilt phase over the TN and OH valleys. I can't see surface maps yet on the 15h, but that might be a Miller B hybrid.

cmc is a strung out mess

We need a surface low to develop in the southeast. With offshore baroclinicity and low pressure over the Lakes, it won't work (e.g., GFS, ECM, and even now CMC). In this scenario, it's too late except for maybe EMA and Maine. A phrase between a northern stream shortwave embedded in the longwave trof and the southern US ULL would probably initiate the surface low that we need. But so far, only the ICON is showing this. ICON Progression:

GGEM ole’s us 2-3 times. Tantalizingly close.

Kind of for fun at this point and in fantasy land at 258, a piece of the TPV is now trapped under a HL block. It is losing latitude like it was dropped of a building. Could be a cold run for the GL and NE....glancing shot here.

Even 35 and rain on sat isn’t a pack destroyer and if we get the surface back Monday, I’d sign up in a heartbeat to get the Rainer/thaw out of the way. .

Right...the PDO is more a reflection of the antecedent pattern that can feedback somewhat if it persists long enough.

It has been some time since we have seen troughs this amplified on modeling. At 222, the GFS has a trough running from Anchorage to New Orleans. This one sucks the TPV into the pattern(we've talked about that potential), and creates quite a cold front(w/ snow) around the 17th. Again, not sure this second front is being modeled correctly if the mis-phase is an error on the 15th...but it is impressive nonetheless at 500. Either way, we have see modeling really keying on this time frame for strong amplification.

It’s one to watch. So close.

Agreed. We're like 12 hours off from a legit event for everyone.

Darn, early on it looked better than 00z with energy dropping in farther W. .

Feels like late phase has been a big issue for years now. In fact, I can't remember the last big juicy coastal winter storm (regardless of precip type)

Don't own a sled but the club trail runs about 1,800 feet thru our woodlot, passing within 450 feet of the house. On a weekend day there might be 30-40 sled passes, when the trails are in good shape. We can barely hear them from inside the house, though if I listen the buzz is easily heard. (Traffic on the paved road 2,000 feet away makes more noise.) Caveats: 1. Our town holds only about 1,500 people. Next town west, Farmington (county seat) has just over 5,000. 2. There's better sledding within a 30-minute drive. Probably most on our trail ride from their dooryard. 3. That 450-foot span is thick forest, though mostly hardwoods. Summer use is limited to a few walkers and a handful of 4-wheeler passes by club members doing maintenance.

Except in terms of the EMI.

That’s a snowy week ahead for NNE as modeled with some major upslope in there early in the week if it pans out. Would set the resorts up real well for MLK. .

That 12z GFS run gives me goosebumps. Like Heisy said, it's so close.

GFS is pretty close to where you'd want it at this point. TW

Yes. But it's probably a binary outcome...meaning one or the other.

the potential is there for the biggest storm thus far this year if all things go well. Is Walt around? Maybe he could give her insight?

I don’t think so… The PDO doesn’t directly force the week to week pattern tendencies The PDO is largely a sea surface temperature signal and it’s connected to wind surface stressing over extended periods. I don’t think there’s a lot of proof that there’s a direct physical connection to forcing the pattern. I think the forcing is going in the other direction and maybe there’s a feedback given enough time, but the PDO is an indicator for what the atmosphere has been doing to effect the temperature distribution more than anything else Any other formal studies or whatever, notwithstanding