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I was thinking more of the PNA TBH....I mean, maybe the subsurface is helping the STJ perk up, but I still disagree with the notion that La Niña is collapsing. There are plenty of metrics that suggest otherwise.

Looking a tad bit slower at 81h

.5 to .8 inch for nyc qpf pretty nice indeed! .

7am Sat Morning .

At 84, heavy snow in East Tn.

Yea, looks more cmc and euro with the hang back ULL snows.

Yes that extra energy to the nw help speed things up after the intial slower start

Yeah, GFS phases the Baja low better

Appreciate both of you guys as well as all of the other current and former old timers!!! I don't post as much as I give myself credit for knowing enough to be dangerous. I miss a bunch of the old timers with good amateur knowledge of weather situations. I went thru the time when newbies knew more than the pros and made sure that the pros knew it. Result was the pros said adios. I wish during big events like this that the powers that be could pin a discussion thread and set it so that only the more knowledgeable amateurs and pros would be allowed to post when crunch time hit. Anyway, enough of my sentimentality. Carry on...

Nice jump north with qpf on AI gfs

At 78, a 1050 HP is just hanging out in basically the same spot

Someone sent me a text that GFS AI was huge for RVA-20"

Should be a good run. Slider.

0z GFS no budging much from 18z. Blocking may be slightly stronger. Marginal change at best. 78h

Actually think out front looks slightly better vs 18z attm..could change tho

850s begin working south again by 108. Huge snow storm likely north of 40, big snow and major ice south of 40 in eastern areas. Ai GFS.

At 72, massive 1049 HP is located in SE Minnesota

GFS is showing more separation with that Baja low. Interesting to see where it lands.

Ya has some positives and negatives

I think just the euro. After bncho kept clipping me, I realized it wasn't much faster so I mostly abandoned the pbp since we all could get it at the same time for the most part. Euro is lightning fast on SV tho

AI GFS trending north today solid hit for SNE

GFS doubles down.

Out to 72. Nothing glaring yet though.

A bit stronger and west SW is fine as long as we have the increased NS energy to compensate. Which oddly has been happening for every run.

20F here now. Steadily dropping since about 4pm.