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I generally agree but you are mentioning one of the closest analog periods to the last 10 years in terms of the longwave pacific and atlantic patterns. Actually the pattern if you just look at the h5 means for the early to mid 1970s was even worse! And if you look at the numbers you'll see we have done about 15% WORSE now wrt snowfall. This trend is evident in high snowfall periods also, the last favorable period was slightly less favorable then previous ones. So our current crappy pattern cycle is the bigger issue...but mixed within that is the fact that the background state for snow is degrading also.

It’s had the hot hand…hard to bet against it currently, right?

Please, please win tonight. I have tickets to the Division Series, NLCS and World Series. I'd like to get down to at least 1 or 2 more games. I'm ready for the weekend. 80s in October are no bueno to me. But, it's to be expected, so there's that.

I ended the month at about 15mm/.65". TWN did write up about the dry streak mainly on YYZ. https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/forecasts/ontarios-weeks-long-dry-streak-continues-but-tropical-moisture-lurks

I think it's probably a good bet that winter will average out AN. Certainly warmer than last winter was, unfortunately. Hopefully we can time up the southern jet stream with temps "just cold enough" to bury us in white gold at some point. Also - we still have a hummingbird in our back yard!!!

AIFS says no warmth

Well this past weekends system(flow) certainly wasn’t moving fast at all. Too Many nuances and intricacies relative to any future particular system, to say definitively imo.

Even that may be in trouble in a couple hours. Not sure interpretation of the model -suggested clouds is correct, or if the models themselves are erroring too optimistic but I'd go under MOS with that satellite look in SNE.

You will soon. They’re coming

Some showers moving through

Unless it is Sunday... then it is 100% chance of rain.

No... The house was starting to get dank.

Coin flip!

GWDLT

Another cloudy day that was forecast sunny .visible is ass

does look like the 2nd step down is nearing... This one will introduce for the first time blue contours for those that need pretty colors for visual aid One thing I'm noticing is that already, the S/W translation speeds ( the wave's movement through the field, not the flow moving through and around the wave) are moving very quickly. I'd be prepared for haulin' ass wave speeds this winter - problematically. Probably effecting storm morphologies and headaches.

Won’t need AC but last half of month warms up relatively speaking

Happy Red October for those who celebrate - Go Phillies!! Unseasonably warm weather starts the month with temperatures today and tomorrow well into the 70's to low 80's. We turn much chillier starting on Saturday with highs by Sunday remaining in the 50's. Rain chances increasing by tomorrow night into Saturday morning.

Happy Red October for those who celebrate - Go Phillies!! Unseasonably warm weather starts the month with temperatures today and tomorrow well into the 70's to low 80's. We turn much chillier starting on Saturday with highs by Sunday remaining in the 50's. Rain chances increasing by tomorrow night into Saturday morning.