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  2. GaWx
    Thanks, Don. It’s very warm there, no doubt, indicative of a strong Nino. I prefer to compare the relative weeklies for the best apples to apples comparison to past events due to the GW effect on tropical oceans skewing the straight ENSO anomalies higher: For the week centered on 7/15/26, the relative region 1+2 was at +2.8, a rise from the +2.6 of the prior week and the highest yet for this event. How does +2.8 compare to past events back to 1982 in mid July? 2023: +2.8 2015: +2.3 1997: +3.7 1982: +0.5 So, going back to 1982, 2026’s +2.8 is tied for 2nd warmest on a relative basis with 1997 being the warmest. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
  3. RUNNAWAYICEBERG
    Lots of low dew periods since May. That’s really what most care about.
  4. olafminesaw
  5. Torch Tiger
    we survived the cold of 7/20..whew
  6. SouthCoastMA
    And its already 77. I must have slept through the coldest portion of 7/20 in my lifetime
  7. WxUSAF
    After 0z and 6z, I thought maybe the NAM broke the 2026 streak of looking like shit before our storm days. Then 12z ran. The streak lives!
  8. SnowGoose69
    Alot depends on how the whole thing evolves. If the late AM/early aftn wave is more significant the evening won't be as bad. Thats evident on most of the high res models too. HRRR has a stronger early wave, high res GFS/RRFS have mostly just a late one. Instability looks more impressive in the evening than the Saturday event and less in the early wave/warm front than Saturday.
  9. GaWx
    Correct, Adam. 1982-3 bimonthlies peaked at +2.9. Get this, that peak wasn’t til April-May of 1983. Although April-May is very late even for the MEI peak, it does sometimes peak sig. later than the 3.4 SST anomaly peak. Why? My guess is atmospheric lag vs SSTa peaks since MEI has an atmospheric portion. There’s nothing better to illustrate atmospheric lag than to look at SOI lows for strong Nino events per the monthlies: Event……..SOI low….SSTa peak…Lag (months) 1982-3……Feb ‘83…….Dec ‘82……..2 1991-2…….Jan ‘92…….Jan ‘92…….0 1997-8……Mar ‘98……..Nov ‘97…..4 2009-10….Feb ‘10………Dec ‘09….2 2015-6…...Jan ‘16………Nov ‘15…..2 2023-4…..Feb ‘24………Dec ‘23….2 So, avg lag from SSTa high to SOI low for these 6 strong events was 2 months. MEI peaked late in 1982-3, 1997-8, and 2009-10 (although it didn’t in 2015-6 and 2023-4). https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/
  10. BBasile
    Low was 57.5F this morning! Currently 77F with a 57 dew.
  11. WxWatcher007
    Oh yeah, we don't disagree there. Would need to see the center stay south and wrap convection to put anything other than a minor/modest ceiling on the table.
  12. bluewave
    That wasn’t a good forecast either for what verified. Still much too cool from upper Midwest into the Northeast. You seem to be taking my model criticism personally in some regard by the tone of your responses. It isn’t my intention to put you on the defensive in any way. It would be great if all the seasonal model forecasts were as good as the JMA for your best winter in 2013-2014. https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/data/news/tccnews34.pdf https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php
  13. WxWatcher007
    Shear is definitely evident in IR satellite, but unlike yesterday we are seeing more persistent convection near the center with pressure falling and flight level winds going up as a result. The shear has picked up substantially, which will make it very hard for the kind of vortex alignment necessary for a faster pace of intensification. And dry air is still an issue, though the persistent convection has helped some in mixing it out. Beating an old drum, but obviously land interaction will be key to future prospects, and there's still a split between legacy models and AI ensembles. The superensemble of legacy GFS/Euro still show a more northern track that takes this into the central Gulf coast. This is certainly a reasonable outcome if TD2 continues on a NNW heading. The AI ensembles however continue to show the risk that this gets "suppressed" a bit, and skirts the Louisiana coastline. The northerly shear probably keeps some of the worst weather off the coast, but there could still be plenty of impacts in rainfall and wind with banding. The higher end solutions seem to be off the table, but modest intensification still seems to be a reasonable expectation provided there are no sudden changes in the organization of the center.
  14. dendrite
    “Coldest 7/20 of our lives” Chilly, but what are we doing here?
  15. dendrite
    Beer I hate when he posts these…lots of short record periods or shoddy datasets at many of these sites. That’s not a record for MHT either.
  16. WestBabylonWeather
    58.5 this morning. Perfect day. Glad I’m off heading to Long Beach boardwalk
  17. ChescoWx
    Plenty of lows in the 50's this morning with the lowest being 50.3 degrees at the Warwick DEOS station. Today will be the 10th below average temperature day over the last 15 days. We should continue to see below average temperatures for what is, on average, our warmest week of the year for the rest of this new work week. A beautiful day today with some ridge locations remaining just below 80 degrees. Rain chances increase toward tomorrow morning with the general forecast being for between 3/4 and an inch of rain for most spots with showers lasting till Wednesday AM. We dry out and stay cool on Thursday with highs only in the mid 70's - almost 10 degrees below normal levels for late July.
  18. ChescoWx
    Plenty of lows in the 50's this morning with the lowest being 50.3 degrees at the Warwick DEOS station. Today will be the 10th below average temperature day over the last 15 days. We should continue to see below average temperatures for what is, on average, our warmest week of the year for the rest of this new work week. A beautiful day today with some ridge locations remaining just below 80 degrees. Rain chances increase toward tomorrow morning with the general forecast being for between 3/4 and an inch of rain for most spots with showers lasting till Wednesday AM. We dry out and stay cool on Thursday with highs only in the mid 70's - almost 10 degrees below normal levels for late July.
  19. weatherwiz
    It's certainly not a horrible look but its pretty far off from getting to the point of being like, "yeah this is a bit concerning" and something which may result in stronger storm impacts (something like increasing concern for power outages and surge/coastal flooding). There are a lot of "if this happens" involved here. Certainly worth watching, but if I had to lean towards a direction of what this becomes, it would be minimal impact...nothing more than what this area sees with daily thunderstorms which produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. maybe a bit more of a FF risk from torrential downpours and maybe some slightly stronger wind gusts.
  20. kdxken
  21. tamarack
    Agree. July is running 2.4 AN so far. If the month finishes at that mark, JJ 2026 would be 5th warmest of 29, respectable but no record. Looking at the rest of July, I'm guessing we'll be 1-2° AN at the finish.
  22. WxWatcher007
    Probably still on track to become a TS today. Still weak and disorganized given dry air and shear, but it's progresssing.
  23. WxWatcher007
    @weatherwiz you gotta remember it's July--you don't get a Beryl walking through the door often. Climo this time of year is for slow developing, messy homebrew off a stalled front and/or ULL. I have no doubt given the trend in organization today that this will become a TS. The question is whether it can fully expel the dry air that was giving it fits yesterday and keep building deep convection near the center. Proximity to land is an issue and northerly shear doesn't help with aligning the vortex. But you don't need a pristine environment for gradual organization and intensification. This isn't a horrible look.
  24. forkyfork
    all we need for an average spell in july is the strongest el nino in history
  25. Today
  26. psv88
    57.5 this morning
  27. wxmeddler
    That looks like 65 mph damage, there were pockets of 80 in there from TDWR. Locally more damaging than the '12 derecho. I think the derecho only had 50-65 in the Pasadena / Rivera Beach area.
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