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Thank you. Scared some of us Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

I am not nearly as conservative you are Wiz, but your concerns are valid... Sometimes we tend to look for more reasons for it to snow and not emphasis any negative aspects... I'm ok with 1 to 2 north of the 84 corridor but have been wary about hitting +2-inch amounts too hard... 2 to 3 southwards into the coastal plain with 4-inch spots. I might be under-playing fluff factor, but need to see fronto zone come northward a bit before I become more bullish across northern third of CT. Slight norward shift would be enough for me to become more bullish...

Im gonna enjoy it for sure down here!

Snow is falling currently

3-5” there

We've had snow on the ground here since November 29th. But right now its frigid and dry with the arctic air funneling in. With the east coast finally getting some snow, the thread explosion is the last thing I expected to see

I agree. Most short term guidance has upped the ante for both counties.

BALMY 48 back bay barnegat, NJ. Sweating in my hoodie working on my boat. Doesn't feel like snow.

But glad snow on the shore isn't starting until overnight. Have to make a 2+ hour trip to Stamford from Springfield right now

Subtract 15-20 degrees.

So much to think about...it's only a clipper...but the mid-level vorticity is potent...but the antecedent air mass was bone dry...but the height falls are impressive...but the surface high is too far south...but the low level winds are from the warm ocean advecting moisture...at the least, this will be an interesting winter event; if it were mild, we say we need this ~0.30 " of precip and go on our ways! Love the wx and the meteo!

We shall see. Watch there be a swath of totals ranging 6-8" from NJ across LI maybe even southern RI and SE MA and then some screw north of that. But there is only so much room north the fronto banding can get. These bumps north in QPF are models likely honing in on the fact that these bands usually end up a bit north than initially advertised so while bumping north with the max QPF, there is a whole shift north in the QPF field with no account for subsidence that would have to occur. If air is rising somewhere it needs to sink somewhere else at an equal intensity. We may see the immediate shoreline get into the heavier banding but that just means more of a struggle north of there

2-4” in Northern New Haven County is a good call IMO

Yup. Winter done with before the winter solstice

These mesos just keep beefing up totals. 19z HRRR is a widespread 5-7” with isolated 8” spots throughout SE PA, from Philly through the burbs up to the Lehigh Valley. My 2-4” call for the Allentown area might be too low, when at this time yesterday I was wondering if it would be too high!

So far, no warnings for my neck of the woods. Hoping for a solid inch in NECT.

Nice write up from the afternoon OKX AFD: NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Key Points: * Winter Weather Advisories have been expanded across most of the local Tri-State region from 10pm tonight through 1pm Sunday. * 2 to 3" of snow expected across much of the interior, 3 to 5" for NYC/NJ metro and coast, and 4 to 6" for E LI, tonight into Sunday morning. Locally higher amounts possible. A strong polar low (-2 std 500mb height) digs southeast from Ontario into the Great Lakes into tonight. Trend over the last 24-48 hours has been for this feature to take on a slightly more neutral tilt (from positive) as it pivots towards the area tonight into Sunday morning. This will provide a bit more theta-e advection into the area, and also shift the the ULJ slightly farther NW of the region. At the surface, a weak cold front moves through the region this evening, with combination of approaching shortwave PVA and RRQ of 150kt ULJ inducing weak low pressure development along the front across Mid Atlantic this evening, tracking southeast of the 40/70 lat/lon tonight into Sunday AM. Although surface features are weak, the deep layered lift overnight into Sunday AM (including RRQ of ULJ, and modest mid-level frontogenesis/lift in the snow growth region along the coast), and slightly more depth of moisture for low pressure to work with has resulted in a gradual increase in QPF and snowfall totals over the last 48 hrs. Good agreement in liquid equivalent of .3 to .5 for coast and .1 to .2 for interior. Main snowfall amount forecast challenge is from northward extent and duration of moderate snow banding, and snow ratios during peak dendritic snow growth late tonight. SLRs should exceed typical 10:1 late tonight into Sunday morning during best snow growth period and dropping 850 hpa temps, with 12-14:1 seeming reasonable late tonight into Sun AM. This has resulted in a general 1" increase in snow amounts across the area. 3-5" likely across much of the coast including NYC/NJ metro, with locally 6" possible. 4-6" across E LI, with locally 7" possible. 2 to 4" across interior. WPC Superensemble and experimental NBM 5.0 have pretty good clustering in these ranges, with reasonable worst case (10% prob of exceeding) a couple of inches higher. In terms of timing, snow could develop as early as 6-7pm this evening, perhaps mixing with rain for city/coast at onset with air temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s. Steadier snow likely develops after 9pm from w to e, with a steady light to moderate snow from midnight through Sunday morning. Snowfall rates of up to 1/2"/hr likely develop after midnight through mid to late morning for much of the area, with potential for brief 1"/hr rates along the coast from 4am to 11am during best snow growth. This signal is evident in the high-res CAMs, with highest prob across southern and E LI. This will be time period of greatest travel impacts in terms of reduced vsby and snow covered roads with freezing/sub freezing air temps, higher snow rates, and reduced vsby. Initially above freezing air/surface temps for city/coast this evening, dropping below freezing late tonight into Sunday AM, may resulted in icy spots on untreated surfaces. Steady snow exits from w to e mid to late morning, except early afternoon for far SE areas.

I'm leaning that way, lol.

Clouded up here in the past 30 minutes, but not before the temp hit 47. Warmest all month. Expecting a cartopper tonight.

Don't jinx it. Wait to walk through 8 inches of snow. lol

First big win of the winter for the AI models. Plowable coast. AIFS in particular did well in digging the SW and turning the trough more neutral vs positive a couple days back.

You gonna learn today…

Philly and parts of SW NJ now under wsw.

Both of the NAMs got a little inverted troughy looking at the end. May help toss a little qpf further north

26/26 with SN-. This looks like it’s part of the clipper system vs the upslope we’ve had all day. Let’s goooo!