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The sensible wx impacts from a strong tropical wave can be just like minimal tropical storm. That's the challenge faced by NHC and other wx services at times b/c the public mostly cares about/sees the impacts, not scientific definitions. But we can't just arbitrarily call something this or that b/c it has wx that appears mimic something else! A typical baroclinic cold core low pressure over the open ocean, many easily have winds of a Cat 1-2 hurricane, and pressures below 920 mb in extreme cases, and overall power as much as a Cat 5, just the wind energy is spread out over a much larger area

I need to find a way to spend the month of September in Falmouth. Traditionally warm water and nice weather on Buzzards Bay. (I grew up here) Photo of a nature reclaimed cranberry bog in East Falmouth:

Great point you bring up there. Wouldn't hate some LES hits and possible svr chances (depending on how warm the warmth surges are) this winter

The convection is still strongly pulsing, and NHC likes to wait to see more persistent and coherent convection or decent circular banding before declaring a TC, which is a good mode IMHO. Quickly waxing/waning convection is a sign of dry air or shear, and pulsing the convection results in cool outflow boundaries that interfere w/ the organization of the LLCC. It is also a very small system, and small systems are more susceptible to environmental factors. In this case, lots of dry air just to the N that can get entrained easily. Looking at the 00z SHIPS output for 97L here, you can see the 700-500 RH is quite low. (below 50%). https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2026/al972026/stext/26083100AL9726_ships.txt

Hopefully it’s a miller b east winter and leaves Kevin on west like the Mongolian Desert.

Pouring here (back in CT)

Another half inch for Kev. Go eff yourself.

DT up to low - mid 70s windows fogged up

Perhaps he prefers the shoreline of Lake America???. #NOVEMBER26&28ARECOMING!

This doesn't strike me as anything significantly above our baseline warmer state, but it's a 5-day average. First half of September seems fine to me. Not a torch, not frigid, but seasonable...which means a step down on balance. BDL's hi/lo by September 14 is 76/54.

Yea look at a climo map the drop in northen summer is really stark largely due to increased fetch of se trades as itcz moves n althouh there is some other thing going on here some clouds that form im not sure

We got a good hit this time - unlike several other misses recently where the split was in true form. Managed to get 0.97" from the 20+ min deluge. Needed it with the heat inbound the next few days. The ground was rock hard again.

.02 Slowly inching up past 5.20 since May.... Im even behind Eastcoast up in Stephen's city by at least 17 points if this was a football game...

Just another cloudy, cool day in the 60's with a breezy Lake wind. T of rain this morning with nothing on radar atm. Tomorrow summer returns on a W wind with temps 80-85. Only for a couple days before Lake winds kick in again the rest of the week.

Friend of mine worked at Sebasco as a bartender during my college years. Family had a place on the New Meadows. Free beer, free accommodations, fishing , and Cundy's Harbor

We got it! Mt Airy it is. 780ft elevation! Bring it, El Nino! [emoji23] Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk

Starting to see just a hint of color change up in the Adirondacks.

Sounds even better.

It’s typically chilly with temps in the 60’s / 70’s. Water temps in 50’s .Why would anyone want or like that in the summer at the beach ?

The lack of rain did suck this year.....but that was not a climate thing.

I doubt he's ever been to Maine. Midcoast Maine is perfection during the summer. Fake news.

You are right on Spring at Pit---it sucks. Everything else is good though. Pit 2 is great for summer and fall. Winter and spring fail.

I’m going to the next three O’s - Rockies games, so let’s see if we can come home above .500!

Unfortunately, I don't think it will. I don't see a lot of ridge erosion on the guidance. Might need to wait until mid-month.