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6z GFS looking good at hr120

At the risk of pointing out the obvious, we have not one but two systems that need to resolve and play out that will have some impact on the upstream flow. There's at least 3 vortmax cluttered across the playing field immediately ahead of the two that would become the big coastal.

Thank you, as I highlighted your first sentence. Over here our 5 day outlook is rain Friday and Sunday.

Thanks for thinking of me. But been screwed last time you all saw the digital snow. Turned out to be rain. I said earlier wait till Friday and I would believe it otherwise it's a nice rain event.

6z ICON looked better at hr120.. no idea how it would have ended up though

EPS has a decent signal though but I want ai on board

Talk to me when euro ai is interested

NAM is a tick north and warmer again. But I’m out of the game either way now…onto Friday here.

Well, Let’s try This Again since it worked SO WELL LAST TIME! (even though you guys freaked out about me starting a thread) Yes, Once Again I’m off on a trip for gigs, this time in NYC, leaving Saturday, and coming back Tuesday. And you know what happens when TheSnowman goes away while Losing his mind for a storm? The Models Continue to show a Monster Possible Right in the muster of that time frame, with the possibility of a Sub-970mb Low And 24”-36”. The GFS, GEM, and UKIE are All on board as I type this. The EURO has a strangled storm currently OTS; is it Still the dreaded Dr. NO? Let’s track A Potentially TRUE, Historic, Snowstorm and Blizzard. Unlike that overrated SWFE you guys just had.

Kind of hard to say. A lot of energy on the "X-ing" sound. Wouldn't be surprised if they start saying "maxin"

I mean, yeah, this doesn't look so bad. Much better than it did a few days ago. But sometimes when temps bust 5-10F warmer with an oncoming ridge, this trends less favorable in the next bit of time.

There's like 10 members over Cape May.

I don't think it's broadbrushed like that. You keeping pointing out anomalies, I'm saying that the mean is X. I'm basing this on 73 years x 28 days, so 2,044 analogs: So if our average high is mid 40s, that's upper 40s to near 50 on the mean. the average of 2,044 analogs.

Look at some of the -pna snowstorms in the 60s. It can happen. Especially if that 50/50 and Hudson high combo verify. But yea what could go wrong is more likely because snow is never the most likely outcome unless it’s that rare -NAO El Niño situation.

Only

That's what a -PNA SE ridge does though [map default is positive, so -pna is opposite] - High pressure correlation The amplified H5 could shear it out, or give you a 38F and rain day. low pressure system is really secondary to H5 pattern. My point is that in tracking, I don't see these downstream effects fully factored into medium range models.

Geps is nice

The high in Mooseknuckle Pines, ND was 109 today.

Uncle UKIE 00z with 24”-30”!!!!

Eps loops decent. Discard the op. Euro has been struggling this winter.

Ask him why he thinks it’s going to be warm

@Stormchaserchuck1 you can’t claim every non snow scenario as your win. Of course not snowing is the most likely outcome. There are a ton of permutations and most end in no snow. But you can’t say “it won’t snow because the storm will be too warm, or suppressed, it just miss us, or over amped and track NE. Well duh. Ya likely one or those lol. You mean it’s not likely all the multitude of things we need to go right to get snow will all happen. Nostradamus over here.

I’m just giving you the update for whenever you’re latest map comes out

I dunno man

@mitchnick. FWIW all The ensembles think the bigger risk is an over amped miss to our NW