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You wanna get rid of this thing in a timely fashion if you want next weekend

SWFE, NWFE, Miller A, Miller B, clipper, redeveloper…who cares. It’s going to snow and it’s going to snow a lot

Wow shows 5.7 Inches of sleet in southwest Virginia!! That's just insane lol

Hit dogs will holler...

3k NAM is about 10 hours of snow before it flips here. probably 10-12". let's flatten this a couple hairs and improve Mondays outlook

A changeover before noon would not be ideal, but if I’ve got 6” on the ground by then, then so be it. I’ve been hugging the euro for my backyard.

0z NAM + the temps from it at 700 mb. You can see why it's doing what it's doing with what it thinks is gonna happen.

This one may go down in some type of record 24 hour sleet accumulation up this way.. I just saw simulation of 5.7” that would be unbelievable

10+ years ago I would say this will come north last minute, but in recent years, these Ohio Valley Miller b's tend to keep the good snows SE of detroit.

Typically the degree of the warm air (MaxT aloft) will be proportional to the depth. In other words, the highest the MaxT aloft, the deeper the warm or >0C air. In many studies I've seen though, no matter how deep or shallow the warm air is, when you hit 3C or 37F, you're completely melting the hydrometeor. Once that happens, there's no going back to sleet or anything "pellety" unless the air somewhere within the subfreezing layer can get down to -13C/8F or lower. Unless that happens, the rain drop does not refreeze. When we see sleet, it's typically associated with an elevated warm layer temp between 0.5C and just below 3.0C. When it's closer to 0.5C, it's probably more of a sleety & rimed snow mix. When the MaxT aloft is closer to 2.5C, it's more like a sleet ball, with little if any evidence of a mangled snowflake.

I'm starting to have a love-hate relationship with this storm.

Doesn't count. Sleet is not snow and that's a troll way to get to a warning...I just want 6+" of snow. Been 10 years. It should not be this hard

It comes down to liability. People are afraid to make a call and be wrong. Again, from a Risk Management point of view, I am actually sounding an alarm and have been to those I know and advise. The truth is we dont KNOW what will happen. However, there is a high probability of a significant ice storm. There is a medium to high possibility of a crippling ice storm. There is a moderate possibility of a catastrophic ice storm. From a Risk Management perspective, this is where you plan for severe disruption and pray you are wrong. But, if there was any WINTER storm where I would pull out the stops, its this one.

are they only discontinuing the regular nam or also nam 3k?

It sucks bad 1.5" we dry slot it away 2.5" DC they do it right

But for the entire state, we’re living’ on a prayer, one way or another. Whoa ohhh… Side note: Jeff, could the colder trend lead to a longer period of sleet before the freezing rain?

New York City: 6” Boston: 14” Philadelphia: 5” Washington DC: 4” Hartford: 13” Albany: 12” Me: 8”

I just got a dusting too.

2.5 inches of sleet on top of 4.5 inches of snow would be wild. The NAM has been right, but it’s also fell on its face in embarrassing fashion close up to events as well so of course consider it but I wouldn’t assume 100 percent it is correct. Just have to keep it in mind as a possibility.

My only saving grace around wnc is that most of these lines were redone and repoled after helene. .

FV3 still much colder than NAM. Sleet line further north than prior run though.

3k is great here Monday. CF already back down here.

I believe central park had 7.5 inches before the thundersleet. Up here in CT had 9.5 before the thunder sleet

i know this will probably bust out too high, i tried and i posted this wednesday. well i can redo one tomorrow lol