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Yep that be you.

Burlington is 92/85/120 Ames is 92/86/123 This is as high as the dew point ever gets around here. It's only 83 here.

Dewpoint mixed out into the mid 60s so we had easy today even with a high of 98.

Not for nothing but weren't you the fella who called for a half inch during the last gully washer?

Some will get 1-3", some will get more, some will get less (Stein). That's not a difficult forecast

The SW Mountains and NE Georgia might want to keep eye out for overnight thunderstorms moving in.

I think there’s pretty good potential for a good 1-3” over a widespread area. Someone will get much more where it pivots. You have instability working in over high theta e converging on a warm front.

The whole thing went from SNE Jack to mainly NY state . You haven’t been looking daily while on vaca . We will get some rain obviously but wagons west for 1-5”+ etc .Pretty evident today

People still drinking in here

Everyone was saying 1998-2025 SOI was such that it is probably biased positive now. This is about as respectable as a downward drop as you will see. Here's the last 2 days.. 90-day and 30-day are both below -20 now. 26 Jul 2026 1011.41 1015.60 -31.64 -25.66 -20.20 25 Jul 2026 1011.59 1015.45 -29.61 -25.54 -20.06 This is turning into a top-5 -SOI event since the 1800s, so yeah it's probably not biased positive with AGW.

It's an interesting coincidence. There's really no close comparison. I also doubt that the coming winter will be a close comparison.

Really liking to see this -SLP 60-90N pattern for the whole Summer so far. Since 2012 that has reversed to Winter AO almost everytime. -AO with Nino STJ could be the fuel to give us big snow chances. However, without a monster low in the N. Pacific it may be more about timing and "threading the needle".

Yes, that's true.

Tomorrow will be fair and warm. A storm will bring rain and possible thunderstorms to the region during Tuesday and Wednesday. The potential exists for a general 1.00"-3.00" rainfall with some locally higher amounts. Following the storm, Thursday and Friday will see a continuation of below normal readings. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.82°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -31.64 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.391 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 92% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (1.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I'm impressed at how much further west the subsurface warm pool extends vs 1997. This could mean two things: 1) There is more fuel for this Nino to go stronger - and perhaps stronger in Nino 3 2) The "Strong La Nina snap-back" for 27-28 may not be as probable as some may think.

Yeah you have to wonder if it ends up mostly dry for some..time will tell

Spc has McD out for counties in south ky and also Clarksville and Robertson counties in tn watch probabilities 80% .

I thought that was just December...

RRFS follows same theme

Starting pitching has been better than not bad than the last two months. I mean in July alone their ERA is first in the majors, and they have been fantastic since late May. Something to build on next year, imo Elias gotta go--our hitting woes and just being unclutch with poor fundamentals goes back to his system, imo Fundamentals especially were problem when Alby got here and the players all brought it to him...which means it runs deeper. I don't think anything gets better until they make the change. If they don't we could be sitting right here having the same convo next season (whenever it starts anyway, lol)

I think I'd say......one team is more fundamentally sound/clutch and over the course of a long season it adds up. The Braves arent without their flaws as was shown this series w two cases of losing the lead late but they didnt make as many dumb mistakes and were better with RISP. The Os were 2-11 with RISP fri and 0-10 today. Just brutal. Reality is that starting pitching really hasn't been that bad but man they suck at defense and in key situational hitting.

HORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 There are 2 main concerns through Tuesday: heat and storms. A Heat Advisory was issued for our far western counties starting this afternoon, then expanding across most areas west of the Plateau starting Monday morning. The advisory will last until 8 PM Tuesday. The hot ridge over the Rockies and High Plains will bulge eastward, giving areas west of the Plateau highs in the mid 90s with heat index values well over 100. This results in Heat Risk levels reaching Major Risk level (3 out of 4). Although atmospheric moisture has decreased since yesterday with precipitable water values dropping below 2 inches, near surface moisture remains high with dew points in the 70s. Dew points can be expected to remain high through Tuesday and those PW values will climb again giving fuel for storms with heavy rainfall. So what are the details on storms? First of all, in this hot, steamy environment with some residual boundaries, we cannot rule out some storms any time, especially in the heat of the afternoon and evening. But, models are continuing to indicate an overnight MCS for tonight into early Monday morning. There are inconsistencies with track and intensity, but that is typical of this pattern. We know that very moist and unstable conditions will be present into the late night hours, so any storms that dive down from KY will have the potential to produce damaging winds and localized flash flooding. At this time, we are under a level 2 out of 5 severe risk north of I-40 with a level 1 out of 5 to the south. It would be wise to monitor updates through the evening and be prepared for possible severe storms in the overnight hours. Along with locally developing scattered storms, we cannot rule out another big storm cluster later Monday. Basically, we need to be watching to our north northwest through the next 48 hours. As we wrap up Tuesday, we will see a medium to high chance for storms ahead of a cold front. This Tuesday evening frontal passage will turn off the storms and drop temperatures to normal levels for the rest of the week.

Interesting thought. Not sure if It’s the cause, or maybe the choice of vaccine—my widowmaker 100-% blockage occurred in 2017 and resulted in 2 stents

The OHC is all the way up to +2.8C. We have blown away 1997’s record of +2.5C