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We snow! some graupel mixed in

GFS likely continues to miss the warm nose at 700mb

Fun with maps...the 18z GFS. We should see these types of runs given the potential for HL blocking. There are gonna be WILD swings as exemplified by the r-2-r map below.

Looks like LOTS of people in the country are going to be *majorly dreaming of a White Christmas this year with this basically off-the-chart atmospheric warmth in store..

Gfs has temps in the 20s for the ball drop in times square and then teens on NYD night in NYC and colder in the burbs Complete cave by the gfs to the euro . Very cold air to begin January with a big PNA ridge. Massive NAO block.

ultimate final boss nut punch is the followup cutter after the whiff to Bermuda

While results haven’t been where we expect them to be…it’s felt like a winter month. MR-LR is starting to look better too, honestly. I think Jan delivers.

Snowing harder than it did all day .

ooh ooh I can help. Image a rope, and your snapping one end ... you'll see a wave move along the rope? that is the linear function/wave propagation. Now imagine that there are multiple wave functions propagating at one. You might have seen this experience in science... but what happens is the wave organize into a patterns that so long as the input force is proximal to steady, will then enter what is called 'resonance' - that resonance is a predictable standing wave event. What we are seeing in the Pacific northern arc out there is a remarkable case of resonance occurring at very large synoptic scale... the NAO that downs stream of that as a secondary resonance node on the "rope".

Shiver me timbers. Trough drops into the East and holds. Slider present. NW flow present.

Hook, line and sinker. Lol

Nice run of the 18z GFS.....

If him and JB ever shook hands it would be like a matter/antimatter annihilation.

Close to moderate snow now. 3/4" so far

Flakes in better echoes now. 34.

Implication being that they are all the same due to CC, but thing is they really aren't....I can tell you right now now this month won't be January 2024 or January 2020. Probably closer to 2022.

Should have known better.

Why are you disappointed?.

Should be me....I struggle to wrap my mind around that.

DFW made it to 82*F today, breaking the previous recoes high of 81*F.

Light snow, starting to get heavier, ground covered. Local news says 3-6 here, 8-12 up by Boothbay and Mikes Pit 2.

Prime winter climo is mid January to mid February. Last 30 years, percentage of 1"+ snowdepth on Christmas is 40%. On groundhog day its 67%.

You staying all winter?

Ravensrule I am happy for you but a little disappointed, too.