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Does Chicago get more snow from this WAA snow than the actual storm? That's the big question lmao

Those tracks become riverbeds Monday night?

The Severe threat for Monday continues to increase for sure.

18z NAM likes the idea of back end snow Monday evening.

Yeah…outside of the lake effect areas, people don’t realize how bad of a winter this has been. Rockford has only had 6.9” of snow since 12/8, with a max 2” of snow cover…and bare ground during the entire month of February. I know many of us had two decent storms prior to 12/8, but all of that snow melted by 12/15 or even sooner. I don’t care what the total snowfall is compared to climo. It’s a horrible way to gauge the quality of a winter. It has been a horrible winter in northern IL and southern WI. I wish people would just acknowledge that. It’s ok for people to have high standards. Having a white Christmas would have helped, and I thought it was a lock after having 10” on the ground on 12/5. And a big dog with the current storm would have helped too, although it would melt quickly due to the time of year. But both of these failed by a wide margin. No white Christmas knocks the grade down by two letters all by itself. I know people grade winters differently. I like to communicate things by considering the extreme outcomes of a situation, because it adds context. This is what I mean - some people might argue that our area has 6 months of winter, since it can snow during November-April. That’s technically true, but to me that’s dumb. Just because it can snow during April, it doesn’t mean it’s a wintry month. That approach is a 1 on the “degree of difficulty/level of standards” scale for grading a winter, if you use a 1-10 scale. On the other extreme, someone else could argue that we don’t have any winter in this area at all, because there is no calendar date on which you can guarantee that it will look and feel like winter outside (meaning cold temps with meaningful snow cover). While late January has the best probability of this occurring, there are some years with warm temps and bare ground at that time of year. That approach would get a 10 on the aforementioned scale. Even I wouldn’t go that extreme, but my approach is probably an 8. This is because, in many (but not all) winters, you can count on 20-40 days (not necessarily consecutive) when it’s cold with meaningful snow cover (say 3”+ so there are no annoying bare spots). I’m only pointing this out because, especially on a weather forum like this, it would be more fun and there would be better camaraderie if we all fell in the 7-10 range on this scale. But I think most of this forum falls into the 2-4 range on the scale…which I think is unfortunate. Just like your favorite sports team, I like having high standards for winter, whether or not it’s logical. I know this post is OT, but missing out on the current storm was the last straw, plus I’m not able to chase it due to other priorities. Anyway, I hope the good folks up north post a lot of pictures.

12z ECMWF has Phoenix hitting 104-104 March 20-21. 12z EPS is 103-102

Nice explanation by MPX on pulling the trigger for a blizzard warning. So the Blizzard Warning... There is high confidence given the snow totals and strength of winds that blizzard conditions will be observed in our traditional "blizzard alley" from west central to south central MN, especially late Sunday morning into Sunday night. For eastern Minnesota into western WI, blizzard purists may argue that we don`t hit blizzard conditions of a 1/2 mile or less visibility with wind gusts of 35 mph or more for 3 or more consecutive hours. This is because the strongest winds will be lagging the heaviest snow and eastern MN and western WI really need the heavy falling snow to achieve the visibility requirements of a Blizzard Warning. However, we are looking at historic snowfall amounts for a March storm (see climate section), with travel expected to be crippled across our entire area tonight into Sunday night. In addition, when the common citizen looks out the window Sunday morning (ie. not the blizzard purist!), they`ll likely say, yup, this is one heck of a blizzard. Given the expected high to extreme impacts, we felt comfortable in pulling the biggest winter messaging lever we have, the Blizzard Warning. Simply put, travel is expected to be very dangerous on Sunday and the best way to get the message across on just how severe this winter storm will be is to go with Blizzard Warning.

Generally cooler weather will prevail through the weekend. A storm will bring a soaking rain to the New York City region Sunday night and Monday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. The rain could end as flurries or a period of wet snow in some of the distant northern and western suburbs. Following storm, a shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday and Thursday. However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive through around March 20th, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. Uncertainty about the closing 7-10 days of March has increased. The major weather story next week will be the super March heatwave that will develop in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are likely to be smashed in numerous cities, including Albuquerque, Flagstaff, Fresno, Las Vegas, Palm Springs, Phoenix, Reno, Salt Lake City, and Yuma. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +10.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.305 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (1.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

NBM 5.0:

From snow anus to snow anal.

Action

High of 37 coming tuesday, high of 39 wednesday. It just snowed 2 days ago. Am I missing something? Sustained cold isnt really a thing this tme of year but a day of 2 BN here and there works.

51 today. Blustery but still spent a lot of time outside with dog and kids.

North crew anal front this time?

Another 6” between 8:30am and 4pm. Storm total 9” so far. Heavy snow. Depth at 3,000ft back up from 52” to 61”.

After Dec.8th been living on the margins all winter

Ladies and gentlemen, prepare yourself. We got one more left in us.

Let’s hoist em up regionwide

This one…has legs?

I never really root for another March 2012 because it did result in an agricultural disaster as we got some cold shots the following April. From a pure meteorology standpoint, however, it was awesome.

-NAO trends for 3/23-29 have lead to BN signal NE: 4 days ago: Now:

First ice cream truck sighting of the season.

HWW issued up here with gusts up to 60mph possible Monday.

Mood flaking. Big dog or bust. Going to be an awesome storm for MSP

Agree. When you talk march 2012 you aren't talking mild, when you talk feb 2015 you aren't talking cold. Youre talking historic on a local level. And theres no sign of that here. For the SW its even worse because they are getting their march 2012 now,.but they already average way warmer.