All Activity

Okay. The NDJ period trended towards a greater SE trough.

Rain is very tropically It's just different how it whips around...I like it!

Cool, thanks Winchester 22

As I discussed with Chris last year the boreal forests will be completely gone before or by 2100. That will solve the forest fire problem. I am willing to make that sacrifice if we can save tropical forests like the Amazon and others. There's far more biodiversity in the tropics than in any other part of the world. The Amazon is called the lungs of the planet for a reason. And here's the other thing this planet was fully ice free for 85 percent of its history. It's greatest biodiversity happened when there was no ice on the planet at all. The Mesozoic Era! I consider poetic karma in a sense the Revenge of the Dinosaurs. The real climate the planet should have had if it wasn't hit by something much worse than human induced climate change a 10 km wide asteroid that hit the Yucatan. I have seen multiple computer simulations of this horrendous event and there's absolutely nothing humans could ever do that would be worse than that global catastrophe. I also strongly adhere to Gaia Theory the history of the planet has shown it will recover from anything and if it could recover from that catastrophe it can recover from literally anything. Humans might not but the planet definitely will and its biodiversity will definitely improve once humanity is gone. Also remember that other species have altered the planet far more than humanity ever could, for example blue-green algae aka phytobacteria without whom none of us would even be here. As far as sea level rise is concerned I don't even know why anyone would ever want to live at or near sea level. The air is much heavier and higher dew points lead to higher air pollution by trapping car pollutants close to the surface. World governments should mandate people and families moving to higher ground. On top of that as we colonize space and the melting of ice caps causing an excess of water on this planet I have it on good authority that we will use emerging technology to move the excess water to space colonies and to Mars in the coming decades. That will solve our excess water problem and we will also remove excess water vapor since it's a worse greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. As far as the boreal forests are concerned as the temperature warms that area will become the new bread basket of the world with boreal forests replaced by farms and towns. Russia already has plans to do that with Siberia and I'm sure Canada will too. As people migrate farther north this will be great news for the tropics as our main concern should be preserving the great biodiversity of the tropics.

This is fascinating, especially given how sleepy the global models are out to the bell-ringing date, and the documented effects of Ninos shutting down late-season development. Perhaps it suggests a brief burst of high activity during the peak of the season?

Might see a downpour this afternoon -- a decent amount of activity popping up to the south and moving north.

Right now the timing looks good with a cold front coming through on Tuesday, which would mean good weather on Wednesday. Hopefully this will hold and we'll have nice clear conditions for the peak of the meteor shower next Wednesday night.

Has he had one since the CG “scare”?

Just keep your little dog on the porch. That should attract one

I see what you are saying since this a much stronger more east based event than 2023-2024. So if any event can have Nino dominant forcing, then this one would be it. But we could avoid the IO and MC forcing we had in 2023-2024 and still reach a very warm outcome. 1997-1998 had a much deeper trough in the Southeast than 2023-2024 with more typical Nino dominant forcing. But the portions of the Southeast were warmer in 1997-1998 than in 2023-2024.

August 5 1904: A Detroit Lakes woman is hit by lightning. It melts her hairpins and the steel in her corset, but does not kill her. For Wednesday, August 5, 2026 1843 - A spectacular cloudburst near Philadelphia turned the small creeks and streams entering the Delaware River into raging torrents. As much as sixteen inches of rain fell in just three hours. Flooding destroyed thirty-two county bridges, and caused nineteen deaths. It is believed that several small tornadoes accompanied the torrential rains, one of which upset and sank more than thirty barges on the Schuylkill River. (David Ludlum) 1961 - The temperature at Ice Harbor Dam, WA, soared to 118 degrees to equal the state record established at Wahluke on the 24th of July in 1928. The afternoon high of 111 degrees at Havre, MT, was an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Severe thunderstorms raked eastern South Dakota. The thunderstorms spawned half a dozen tornadoes, produced softball size hail at Bowdle, and produced wind gusts to 90 mph south of Watertown. Hot weather continued in eastern Texas. Afternoon highs of 100 degrees at Houston and 106 degrees at Waco equalled records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Indiana and Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and New York State during the day. Thunderstorms in Michigan produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Ashley, Hastings and Lennon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma, and from Iowa to the Upper Ohio Valley, with 216 reports of large hail or damaging winds between early Saturday morning and early Sunday morning. Thunderstorms moving across Iowa around sunrise produced extremely high winds which caused ten million dollars damage to crops in Carroll and Greene Counties. Thunderstorm winds at Jefferson IA reached 102 mph. Afternoon thunderstorms produced tennis ball size hail at Bay Mills, WI. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 5 Wed Blogger Day 5 Wed National Couscous Day 5 Wed National Dash Cam Day 5 Wed National Underwear Day 5 Wed Our Lady of Africa 5 Wed Work Like a Dog Day

Seems like you got a good grasp on what the future holds! Can you tell me tonight's lottery numbers? Powerball is at $786 million.

Yuck I dont think anyone anywhere likes murky high dew point weather. All it does is cause more air pollution by trapping car exhaust particulates closer to the surface and causes breathing difficulties for many. I live on a higher elevation now with very little vehicle traffic here (not even any street lights or traffic lights in this private community) and up here the air is thinner so the temperature falls quite a bit at night so higher dew points dont really mean much up here, I've even seen the Perseids up here through ground fog but I do want clear skies for the peak. But if there is any place that's relatively immune to climate change this is it. I run the heat up here even during the summer if it's not sunny. I'm going to look into solar panels because electric heat is very expensive and I dont feel completely safe with my propane fire places, people up here have had explosive problems with them. Literally!

Please deliver just one tstorm to me. Just one is all I ask.

I don’t deny that it could verify warmer than what the Euro is showing. The Aleutian Low/SE trough are not as cold in those areas as pre-2000s Ninos, I get it. The point I’m making is due to the fact that it’s record breaking, the odds of seeing a Jan 2024 type pattern (arctic cold dumping from the NW US, a parade of Great Lakes cutters) and Dec 2015 (more cutters) are lower, because if any Nino event is going to shut down the forcing that caused these to happen, it will be this one.

Saturday looks good

Yuck, this is ugly high dew point high air pollution weather with car exhaust particulates getting trapped near the surface. I hope this clears out before the Perseids peak next week.

At least where I was living for Irene, Ida and Floyd Irene was a distant third compared to Floyd and Ida. Also on Floyd, I remember looking at the radar starting around 6am and it was a text book Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) in the making. Classic.

Noted the paragraphs about 1965 and 1999 the droughts back then were far worse than anything that has happened since.

Epic winter coming

Yes this is the rubber band effect this is why very hot and dry summers usually lead to snowy winters. It also happened in 1966-67.

Brief shower in Silver Spring here at noon; soupy mcsouperson out there.

A stronger east based event. Not necessarily the exact anomaly distribution. What do you mean by trending colder since we are just starting to get into the winter range now from earlier forecasts?

Well the second eof i would add would be more reprsenttive of central pacfic el ninos for example in the dec jan eofs the -olr is further east then many central pac ninos and so is the minimum mslp correlation on the mei map l you can also see the sst are more favorable for ep nino. As for v wind no its not as important as u wind in the dynamics of enso sure v wind can be an indirrect enso forcer but it isnt as direct as u wind because u wind triggers the down/upwelling kelvin waves which are critical to enso v wind can do no such thing. In terms of wind and slp going hand in hand thats true so if we got rid of v wind i would say we can count things all the same. As for the wwbs yes they are important but im saying an enso event shouldnt be punished inhertly bc its wwbs were 20 degrees west of typical that could still produce a strong event just more center based then typical for strong events. As for ohc the reason I was adding it wass because mei is designed to measure how coupled the system is and to me high ohc is part of that coupling as well s ocean sfc currents. In terms of mid lattidues I dont really have anything to say on that tbh

Im getting more heavy tropical rain showers. My area is definitely doing well today. I'm sitting in my truck getting ready for a hike.