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Jesus things aren’t looking too good for Jamaica. Its a compact hurricane but its going to be an absolute buzz saw in the areas that are exposed to the eyewall.

I just realized that I joined AmericanWx on December 3rd, 2010 so on Dec 3rd I will have been in AmericanwWx for 15 years!! That's longer than both my marriages ! Lmaoo

i hope all those homophobes drown

Next 2 weeks definitely a cool down in the east..

A spectacular Fall day. A high of 54 and current temp of 44.

BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY TO BEGIN TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 77.3W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

very cold cloud tops wrapping around the western eyewall now.. shes about to explode

DP is 29/30 in Muttontown, should be around freezing tomorrow for the low.

I missed 2009 in college in VA Beach, but it was the first 12"+ snow in greater McDowell since Jan 96. It's been 7 years since our last 12" snow. 2022 was close but not quite.

There’s resorts on the west part of the island too. Might be worse vs where it’s currently forecasted to go.

Only positive is that Melissa might be far enough west to keep Kingston area out of the eyewall winds and the south coast of Jamaica isn't that surge prone. Biggest threat has been and continues to be the flooding as hazwoper just mentioned. Farther west track unfortunately subjects more of the island to very high rainfall totals and the NNE trajectory is unfortunately very favorable to squeezing out the moisture via orographic lifting.

Classic mild 50s to 19F blizzard in Denver.

I don’t think you are truly grasping what 30” of rain in Kingston means. The entire island is in big trouble

Western part has resorts too. That’s probably worse vs where it’s forecasted to make landfall currently.

Weeniefest 202X

The IOD makes me nervous about this winter. QBO isn’t in great position either.

Today’s Euro Weeklies out 6 weeks for E US: - Coldest 1st 2 weeks of any run for that period (10/27-11/9) thanks to a combo of an impressive +PNA and impressive ascending -NAO, which should it verify closely would be coldest for E US overall since the similarly chilly Oct 27-Nov 9 in 2012. For those curious, that period in 2012 actually had a mean near opposite weak -PNA as well as a similarly strong -NAO and weak -AO. It had a +EPO like we have now. It had for the MJO a moderate 2, mod 3, and ended with weak 4/5. - No long period of mild in sight with weeks 3, 5, and 6 NN and week 4 only barely AN

Ha, beat me to it. Impressive drop continues. I'm guessing it'll be another 3-4mb between passes.

Center sonde was 937mb with a 41kt wind

933 mb from the dropsonde

Which presents an even more dire situation for those dense coastal areas. Based on a more west track, storm surge would be maximized. No matter the scenario or potential tracks left on the table, each one is catastrophic or devastating for Jamaica. Also, a more west track increases the likelihood of a peak intensity landfall being it will be over warmer waters longer.

Seems like some hurricane models and other hi res guidance are favoring a more west track before a north turn now which would keep it away from more dense population and hit more rural areas.

I was just in Minneapolis for a couple days. To my surprise, the leaf color there in the inner suburbs was quite similar to how it is here, currently. Maybe a couple days to a week ahead. I had never been there this time of year before so I figured they'd already be past peak due to the higher latitude/cooler climate.

Horrific for Jamaica

That is a massive drop from last recon mission. Im guessing winds will be upgraded to 150-155 if they get data to support it which I think they will.