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Yeah the past few years the January thaw has been like mid 50's or more. This coming warm up is much more subdued. Tenor of the season so far. Cold or cooler regime reigns.

EPS AIfS definitely seem to bring back a weenie pattern quicker. Like 12-13 or so.

Deep Doom

^^Return of the King

Alot of people ice fishing out on the lake today. Too breezy for me to go. I froze walking the dog for 30 minutes.

Looks good to me

Great post, rational POV. Everyone needs to tattoo this on their brain

If you want to have hopes and dreams and pray a crap pattern delivers more D-2” events that flip to rain go ahead. I’d prefer to wait until something that is much more conducive to winter weather.

That 1/10 system is looking more and more CADish…this is prob gonna be weak sauce in terms of a thaw for NNE. Def above normal but I can see where people say this isn’t like the torches we dealt with 2020-2024

I think that recent longer-range forecasting successes, part of the ever-improving state of NWP, have raised our expectations a bit too high. We're not yet at the point where we can expect the Week 2 period to always be forecasted with skill, even for ensemble systems.

Lol

North of the pike stays wintry through mid month. Post next weekends cutter we look to have chances south of pike right away by the 12/13th nice fantasy storm on 12z euro and AIFS day 10..

12z Euro is a bit more interesting today and certainly colder after next week.

Is this guy a joke? He doesn't even speak with an ounce of professionalism.

If you can get ice to form in the hudson then winter has a firm hold. These aren't short shots of cold either. A thaw,back in to the freezer in a few days. Thats basically the forecast. Btw its still cold outside!!.

Ditty showing off his twitterology skills today

The theme to these “warm ups” at range has been to mute them or completely reverse course since August. We saw this so many times over the last half of 2025, and I imagine you’ll see this continue. I wasn’t worried about any extended warm up because of this premise. We’ll see a brief period of above normal before returning closer to normal and below normal at times. Timing waves and getting that prolonged SWFE look is what can be the ticket to getting frozen around here considering the nature of things. A few coastals will certainly be plausible by end of winter as well as wavelengths shorten into February. It’s always tricky around here, but if the North Atlantic cooperates, that increases our favor. I would not be sweating anything beyond D7 at this point. History is showing it will change and discrete threats could pop up inside 7 days with this type of volatility in NWP.

Yes after the 10th

MEI is back.... https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ -1.2 peak in SO, ON was up to -1.1.

The 12z Euro is bringing it. Good 12z suite again. Winter storm on the Euro and upslope on the CMC.

You’re out of the loop and have no feel for the weather and pattern. Put the phone away for a few days and open it back up at the airport. Get your head right

Maybe the 13th it gets better?

Hoping to bring the SE ridge with me