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18z EPS bumping up qpf a bit

Euro .

I thought for sure Heupel was the guy, but he's probably not. Majors is the only coach to lose to Vanderbilt and still have a job 3 years later, since the early 1920s. I won't be shocked if things fall completely apart now.

In other words surface looks very Dec 6th in the Mid-Atlantic.

I'll take it

The cold air is definitely close by. Not saying it will hook up with the moisture but its something to keep an eye on.

Surface looks mundane...

h5 looks radical.

Flake size and totals signal underperformed so far in SW MI

Band drifted into the shore, and it is developing more heading right into my direction. Could be a decent hit here depending on how long this lasts. SN bordering +SN currently.

That game was ugly Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Honeymoon PTSD?

my thinking too...hope that is overdone. doesn't look like a ton of convection associated with this across the SE

Thank you…I couldn’t agree more.

I think we get buried.

These long duration events are great. 12hrs+ of snow will end up yielding ~4” here. I’ve crossed a parental rubicon tonight. My 4 year old was actually helpful shoveling the driveway.

SST changes are pushing the warm pool east. This may help to favor MJO waves pushing into our more favorable phases through the winter, at least to some degree.

Listen you know me and I am 85% of the time Euro but all these claims of improvement to the degree as to reduce doubt , increase confidence is bullshit.

Pretty strong momentum build up in the tropics ongoing with the MJO wave. I saw Webb saying that he thinks this will help keep the -PNA at bay for a while longer.

And the guidance seems to want to put the restrengthening vortex over Canada for much of the next few weeks so we keep the cold close even with it strengthening. People need to realize how some of our best cold can happen this way.

Looks like some kind of convective mesolow. That’s like 50kt sustained.

Anyway, had a look at guidance and I can see some signs for optimism with this, but verbatim it looks just 2-3 F too warm to give much snow in the urban areas, could start off as snow and end as snow with sleet and rain during most of the event, 33-35 F zone would mix considerably. The optimism comes from the antecedent conditions getting a chill from the current snow event going through the GL region chilling the boundary layers of the arctic high following in ahead of your Tuesday storm. Also it does not look like very robust warm air advection is likely. If it would shift 50-100 miles south and the 540 dm thickness would stay south of JFK that would be ideal for accumulations of 5-8 inches with this but I think those are going to fall around POU into w CT.