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  2. The Iceman
    The cell in NW Jersey has a nice couplet on it right now. Another cell popping in burl co going into a good environment, debating crossing the river and intercepting
  3. roardog
    Isn’t that pretty much the case with everything humans do/have done?
  4. NEG NAO
    thats true - happened to me during IRENE in 2011 - lost power for 16 hours and didn't open thesewer drain fast enough next to it - so I better just shut up before I jinx myself
  5. RockawayRowdies
    Tornado warning here
  6. BoulderWX
    I mean it’s not hard to not say stupid things. Not trying to be a jerk but the comment was asinine.
  7. SnowenOutThere
    The first part of this point is super important when it comes to our severe ability. Convective instability isn’t really because it’s hot out with some humidity, it’s a measure of how much energy a parcel can release as it traverses the atmosphere. Water carries a lot of heat with it, so despite us being clouded over since it’s so wet out we have 3000+ CAPE over the region. Additionally, airs ability to hold water increases exponentially, it’s why a dewpoint change from 40 -> 50 feels fine, but 60 -> 70 is rough. Hence, we have a ton of energy stored through all that extra water. The issue without heating is that you need forcing to cause storms as you don’t get natural convective currents to help out. I’m not qualified to know if our Lee trough will be enough to pop storms, but In some ways I wonder that a lack of heating could help our severe odds today. Since we don’t have a cap traditionally storm overcrowding could be a fail mode, but with poor level lapse rates maybe it will mitigate overcrowding.
  8. 495weatherguy
    My nomination for worst post
  9. canderson
    SPC hinting you have get E of Lancaster for the real severe - but we’re about to get a tor watch
  10. mayjawintastawm
    Great point. I guess you could also use T/TD spread.
  11. Newman
    Tornado warnings popping off in NE PA. Supercell trying to develop in Berks right now
  12. Stormlover74
    Yes we had that during Ida
  13. NEG NAO
    ouch !
  14. MANDA
    I have a friend in the Plainfield area and in one of the recent flooding events there it came pouring in the ground level basement window wells. Could be any number of reasons with those excessive rates. Pumps or drains with those rates are not a lock that you are safe.
  15. batmanbrad
    we just got one, so good guess!
  16. AlexD1990
    MCD out, 80% watch issuance. Technically im outside of both circles
  17. midatlanticweather
    Mesoscale Discussion 1691 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 211753Z - 211930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of numerous, strong to severe thunderstorms will bring a risk for primarily damaging wind gusts to portions of the Mid-Atlantic through this evening, with a couple of brief tornadoes and isolated large hail also possible. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along the Blue Ridge as of 1750 UTC ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough that is progressing eastward across the upper Ohio Valley. Expectation is for this activity to spread eastward this afternoon with additional thunderstorms likely to progress into the region from the northwest this evening. Filtered heating of the downstream environment has resulted in temperatures warming into the upper 80s/near 90 F. With dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, this is supporting moderately strong buoyancy across the region. While effective shear of 35-45+ kts will favor storm organization, widespread thunderstorm development and cold pool consolidation are anticipated to yield a multicellular/outflow-dominant storm mode, with damaging to severe wind gusts the primary risk. A couple of brief tornadoes and isolated large hail will also be possible. Additionally, guidance suggests that air mass recovery will occur in the wake of these initial storms, which may allow the severe threat to persist into this evening as additional convection progresses southeastward into the region. Given this severe potential, watch issuance will likely be needed in the next hour or two. ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 07/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37348031 38057950 39047840 39467763 39467704 39397660 39147596 38857550 38557536 38147544 37417580 37067629 36927689 36917711 36747834 36737931 36818019 37078049 37218043 37348031 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
  18. weatherwiz
    Might have to consider a TOR watch at this point. Everything blossoming is rotating
  19. FXWX
    No you're not... definite mid-level rotation
  20. Elim72
    It seems like the worst is setting up in Southern PA any thoughts?
  21. BoulderWX
    Contender for stupidest post of the thread… you’re better than that - six inches in 90 minutes.
  22. OrangeCTWX
    That’s quite the storm south of Milford in the LI sound. Possibly some rotation too? Or maybe I’m just seeing things.
  23. MANDA
    Quite possible with those rates they could not keep up. Rainfall of 5-6" in 90 minutes is EXTREME.
  24. Brian5671
    If you could have seen it come down it would overwhelm almost anything...never seen rain that heavy in that short of a period here. In the NE thread they posted a graphic-a once in 200 yr event
  25. weatherwiz
    one reported on the ground northeast of Scranton
  26. weatherwiz
    ramping up the TORs in NY
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