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all the good ones go south of us and over the lake

that storm west of Rutland VT looks like a beast

Let's get a waterspout on Sebago w/o GYX warning.

beautiful rest of the week coming up!! This Afternoon Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Northwest wind around 8 mph. Tonight Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 54. West wind 3 to 5 mph. Friday Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 76. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Calm wind. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph in the afternoon. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Calm wind. Sunday A chance of showers after 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night Showers likely, mainly after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. South wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday A chance of showers before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Light northwest wind. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Calm wind. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon

Yeeeah... okay. There's a couple of facets here. I agree with you not to ignore "denialism" in the whole of western industrial society and the apparent recent cultural modalities (...largely a result of corruption) to do so. Of course. However, I was talking about certain repeating members of this forum - I have trouble believing their intent is born of mere 'innocence having been misled'. Because the logic has been explained in nothing short of 1+1=2 type certitude, yet won't penetrate? I doubt it - one can tell if one is coming from the blowhards chorus like those your implicating, vs you and I. We are clearly and logically by written material, decipherable as not being of the former ilk/bad social media informatica. Thus, these individuals are either not capable of the intelligentsia, or, they're immoral. As far as an implicit idea of a movement against disinformation? No problem. Unfortunately, it's also going to be a tall task. It's an untenable task. Risking a digression, it's why I think humanity is in its 10 hours. It's a metaphor for borrowed from stellar evolution. A large star, perhaps 4+ times the mass of our sun, may burn in the hot end of the main sequence for many millions of years but because it's mass is so large, it's gravity is more intense, so the core temperature/rate of fusion are greatly accelerated. The core of the star starts to fuse iron ... game over. It takes more energy to fuse iron than the fusion of iron gives back to the star, and the core suddenly finds itself without enough thermal pressure to withstand the ... unimaginable power of gravitation crushing down. Core collapse takes place. As it does, it gets to the neutron density threshold and there is a god like bounce at the moment the core is determining a fate as a neutron star, or a stellar mass black hole. In either case, the out going energy of the bounce not claimed by core gravity well, surges through the star to the surface, a 10 hour time in which the sun shines with magnificence and glory ... just like it had for the many millions of years, no indication that anything has happened. Sound familiar.. ? keeping in mind, it's a metaphor.

Super ninos in order from 65-66: Boom, bust, boom, bust, boom....I'm a bit concered we're due for bust again based on that random pattern

Odds probably favor AN temps/precip and BN snow, but the super nino list is still SSS. Of course we’re embarking on unchartered waters this go around.

I mean you can say 1.2" or 35" and have equal chances of being right or wrong, lol

Getting some bigger hail now but still on the smaller side. Rain rate is impressive but little to any wind or lightning. Edit: Spoke too soon

I feel like this is the first August in many years where there are healthy waves coming off Africa without Saharan dust, and yet they can't do anything because of the crazy shear. If that shear wasn't there, this could have been an impressive August that we haven't seen in a while. Oh well.

Getting some small hail and heavy rain now

I'm not used to all of the snow positivity this far in advance for winter. Being set-up for the ole rug pull...

Thankfully he is nice and safe behind the seabreeze.

Isnt September a part of Summer?.Fall arrives the 3rd week of the month.

The main question of this thread is whether the adjustments to raw data are a) valid and b) essential. The deep dive on Coatesville upthread answered these two questions for Coatesville with two resounding YESs for that station. Here is the breakpoint analysis for Phoenixville 1E. It also demonstrates that the adjustments done to the raw data are a) valid and b) absolutely necessary. Note that all of the aerials from 1927 forward show changes at the site--roughly every ten years between aerials--so there is going to be microsite changes. One has to wonder, for all of the time some folks have put into explaining why the adjustments are arbitrary, ad hoc, suspect, etc etc, why they did not just take two hours and look at the easily available documentation on line.

And North Haven had tstm wind damage 8/10! All happens and hail HVN (not Weymouth)! Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service New York NY 845 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0619 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 N North Haven 41.40N 72.85W 08/11/2026 New Haven CT Law Enforcement Tree down across Washington Avenue in North Haven. Time estimated by radar.

This year’s contest is going to have an epic spread.

Always fun when you get the rare combination of downpours and thunder while still sunny out. Looks like we may get into that gell popping off around Bridgewater this way.

And @CoastalWx still misses the storms! Can he at least hear T to the S?

PDO changes afoot?

Thanks for posting a recap! I'm glad you had good luck seeing some nice meteors out there in PA. Here it was a complete bust with cloudy skies all throughout the overnight hours. The peak was last night, but as you said there's another chance tonight. There's a pretty good 3 day window -- the night before and night after are usually 60 to 70% of the peak night, so still pretty good. Unfortunately we're expecting a good amount of clouds here tonight, but we'll see. If it's just partly cloudy I'll go out there tonight. It was pretty cloudy here the night of the 11th into the 12th too, so very bad luck during the 3 day period here. I know the Perseid is the most popular shower of the year because it's during the warm summer, but the Geminid shower in December is actually the best shower of the year -- slightly bigger than the Perseid shower. So I'll deal with being out there in cold weather if we have clear skies, especially after having such bad luck last night.

Speaking of supposedly there could be another opportunity for one August 27-28 we will see would have to check with multiple sources it’s a lunar eclipse though we can pretend it’s a solar eclipse though .

I agree that they are beyond persuasion. Their belief system is a matter of identity and, in that aspect, essentially theological doctrine. But that's not the point. The issue is that climate change disinformation is rampant on social media. The news media still fails, as well, often not connecting events to climate change despite a growing body of attribution findings. Even in many cases where the connection is made, they are silent on the predominant cause: the burning of fossil fuels and the major fossil fuel companies' share of cumulative emissions. As a result, climate change disinformation has swamped credible science. That he science has proved remarkably accurate in projecting the warming, linking the warming to greenhouse gases/the burning of fossil fuels, and identifying potential outcomes in a warming has been drowned out in the deluge of disinformation. Neither basic physics, on which climate change understanding is based, nor the credibility of accurate scientific analysis, has proved an effective antidote to this disinformation. The outcome, as one paper put it, is a "crisis of truth" when it comes to climate change. The paper goes on to explain: Beneath this communication chaos lies a more unsettling truth: climate denial is not the absence of knowledge but the production of strategic ignorance. It is a tool of power, protecting entrenched economic interests and reinforcing the status quo. The deliberate distortion of facts, the manufacturing of uncertainty, and the cultivation of distrust are not accidental, they are calculated mechanisms designed to delay action and disarm the public. That brings us to this year. The Northern Hemisphere is all but certain to experience its hottest summer on record. July 2026 was the warmest month on record for the contiguous U.S. Globally, it was either tied with July 2024 (NOAA) or the warmest month on record (GISS). Nevertheless, the world remains largely paralyzed and unable to make meaningful progress toward a net zero emissions goal by 2050. Indeed, disruptions to shipments of oil through the Strait of Hormuz are viewed as a far graver problem than the rapidly warming climate is. Thus, I respectfully disagree with the notion that one should ignore climate change denial. The deniers aren't the intended audience, as their belief system is beyond reason, evidence, and ethics. The general reader, who encounters their disinformation, is the intended audience. IMO, the prophets and propagandsts of climate change denial and their deep flaws need to be confronted. William Happer: Has never published research on climate. John Clauser: A Nobel Prize in quantum entanglement has nothing to do with climate or climate change. Tony Heller: A Sandy Hook conspiracy theorist who regularly charges the NOAA with data "tampering." Chris Martz: A social media influencer/policy analyst with no climate research to his name and deep struggles with even elementary statistics e.g., he recently railed against "average mean temperature" (sic). What these four examples have in common is that none of them possess the knowledge, background, understanding, or experience to credibly debunk well-established scientific understanding, much less overturn well-established physical properties of greenhouse gases. Despite lofty claims about credentials, they are mere noisemakers. Nothing more. If left unopposed, they will continue to drown out the scientists and scientific understanding.

Winter 2025-26 was like winter 2014-15. Record breaking warmth out west, and cold in the East. It's almost impossible to have a cold CONUS winter like 2009-10 and 2010-11 anymore. When there is historic cold on one side of the country, you can almost bet the other side is having widespread record warmth. There is an increase of +10 temperature departure months starting in late 2011/early 2012.

I think it’s unlikely we’ll have that long of a period with below normal temps that allowed us to have that incredible run. I think a 2015-16 scenario would be on the table, but also 97-98. Very boom or bust winter seems likely.