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I’ve enjoyed his winter playoff beard this season, but hopeully he plans on shaving it with the first 60° day.

The trend is toward higher amounts of pure water in the Sierra Sun night thru Thursday. More communities are expected to receive the snow equivalent of ten inches of pure water. Though its true that high winds will knock the accums down some, that's still a fairly big amount of snow. The specter of eight feet of snow from this is looming for many more Sierran communities. It's going to be a fun storm to watch on webcam, especially during the day. Not so much if you happen to be a tourista caught out in this in a car in high winds and milkshake-like froth visibilities, in single digit cold with wind chills down to negative 40 degrees at times and crazy snow rates.

With a biscotti on the side

Low of 28. Looks like the lower level warmth will win out with the column too slow to cool to the surface. Perhaps a slushy half inch on the tail end. Then we finally lose our pack this week. MDT and LNS both topped out at 48 yesterday. Onward.

Balmy 11 degrees and feels spring Iike. Great weather to haul pellets into the breezeway.

..it's Stein

PD II updated maps coming next. Oddly, i just check the list of all historic storms i have on the website right now and theres almost nothing from Feb 15th to the end of Feb other than PD2 and 1999/2010 for big ones. Tons in March though.

Today’s publicly available Bastardi video (“Saturday Summary”) didn’t at all talk about the upcoming mild E US (gee, I wonder why lol) and instead talked about the expected upcoming El Nino being a Modoki. He’s using CANSIPS SSTAs to predict that, which I feel is wrought with risk as it similarly predicted a Modoki El Niño for this past autumn last year at this time: What verified per this same model? A redeveloping La Niña: look how far off CANSIPS was! Here’s CANSIPS trying again for Modoki El Niño next autumn: will it verify this time or will it again bust? Opinions? Based on the following latest CANSIPS prog of ASO SST anoms, which he showed in his video, he’s going all-in on Modoki next hurricane season and continuing through winter: Based on this Modoki prog, JB is going for: -very active and threatening to US 2026 hurricane season using the highest impact on US El Niño seasons of 1969 and 2004 as analogs (which he considers Modoki) along with a very warm Atlantic with ACE of 140-180, 17-21 NS, 8-10 H, 3-5 MH, 1-3 US H landfalls, and 1-2 MH US landfalls -cold winter throughout much of Conus due to limited time spent in warm phases 4-7. He’s saying that 2023-4 was a warm flop only because models were wrong in predicting typical cold around Australia. It ended up warm there and in W Pac in general, which lead to a dominant +WPO instead of the progged -WPO. He said that warmth there was due to the “sudden impact of geothermal a couple of years ago”. He said SST anoms E of Australia rose an unprecedented 5 degrees from Nov to Jan, which he said had nothing to do with CO2 or solar. He expects none of the same as 23-24 this time with W Pac undersea seismic activity down and thus there instead being the typical cold around Australia during El Niño this fall/winter ————— My primary concerns with JB forecast: - Will it actually be Modoki? CANSIPS can’t be trusted for one thing. - 2004 and 1969 were weak Ninos per ONI/RONI. Will 2026-7 actually be a weak Nino? -JB tends to forecast the more threatening H season and cold E US winter scenarios and has even admitted to having a cold bias @snowman19

Lol. Maybe even Folgers?

He starts every morning pouring that first cup of Maxwell House and then clicks his drought monitor bookmark.

Can already hear more birds in the morning now.

With all of the stupid things I did in my teens and early 20s, I’ve often said my most successful accomplishment during that time is surviving through it. lol

He’s banking on early Spring and endless dry .

you rang

Yeah, the deeper consolidated low storm track just east of the APPS was responsible for a significant portion of their heaviest snowstorms and seasons. This storm track has pretty much been missing for the last 20 years. These days the primary lows tend to track to Cleveland or Buffalo with a weaker secondary going to their east. So they get both dry slots and warmth cutting down their snowfall totals. This is one of the reasons that I have been paying attention to the storm tracks responsible for our seasonal snowfall here. All of our seasons like this one with the coastal areas from EWR to ISP reach 25”+ since the 1990s have featured at least one benchmark NESIS snowstorm with a wide coverage of 10”+ amounts in the Northeast sometimes extending down into the Mid-Atlantic. Numerous seasons since 2018-2019 have been missing this storm track so most of the recent years have featured below average snowfall. Much of the time has featured the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track. Sometimes we get a hugger gradient in the I-78 to I-84 corridor leading to mixing even with the storm to our south. Following the late January benchmark snowstorm, we have reverted back to this common storm track pattern. So we only had one week this season with a dominant Southern Stream capable of producing a widespread 10”+ event near the coast. My question going forward is can we keep some semblance of this benchmark track active at times for the remainder of the 2020s so we can have more seasons at least approaching average? We had a discussion several months back about 50”+ snowfall seasons at EWR, NYC, LGA, and JFK. I expressed concern that it would be a challenge reaching this level due to how Northern stream dominant our storm tracks have become in addition to how warm the winters have become. Since a prerequisite for these 50”+ seasons especially during La Ninas and also El Ninos has been a winter with an average temperature near 32.0°. Well we finally got our first cold winter in over a decade. But the Southern stream was only able to become dominant for a week before the Northern Stream started dominating again. Most of the seasons since the 1990s as cold as this one featured 50”+ like 14-15, 13-14, 10-11 and 09-10. But those seasons allowed the Southern Stream to dominate long enough for widespread 50”+ snows around NYC. My guess is that the 2025-2026 winter could possibly be the only one this coldest for the remainder of the 2020s since cold bas been so scarce since 2015-2016. So its still uncertain whether we can get a near 32° winter to line up with a more relaxed Northern Stream for a 50”+ season. Since these two features have been necessary.

Trying to learn that myself as they get older

Should be pretty easy. Been that way for like the last 4 seasons.

Yep. Gonna flirt with warmth too.

Lol. What is a great parent? Surviving? Keeping your children alive?

Euro AI is kind of meh too. Shreds later this week, runs this weekend and scrapes us next monday.

To my untrained eye, the trends on the euro AI don’t look great. The system on the 23rd and 24th looks way south. I’m nothing else looks too robust.

9z SREFS bumped.north maybe Long Island and far southern CT can get lucky with something?

Yep I remember those days. They go quick. I’m sure you guys are great parents.

The main archive with each season goes back to 1994. Individual historic level storms back to 1888 and being filled in. Theres 295 storms on the main archive page. I list it near the top. How many maps have i done? I was curious, so i just checked, 1,199. Thats how many are up on the site right now including seasonal snowfall maps.