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Check out the precipitation shift between 12z and 18z on the EPS. As PSU mentioned, right here it looks like the coastal being closer helps to intensify the inverted trough. I'm trying to keep expectations in check but it sure feels good to be back in the game for this one!

A little shift east is all you need to get the goods.

PDS warning

I should add that the Euro operational at 12z wasn't particularly warm. Some chances are embedded in that run.

Looking at the changes at h5 that the Euro just made- towards the GFS- IMO we should see the Euro trend more to the GFS idea the next few runs. Should be interesting

What the fuck. I was doing homework the last hour and played the 18z euro and my jaw dropped. It did the thing where it elongates the NS like the GFS. In my opinion it made an absolutely massive shift at the H5. It just failed to really capture the SW wave and get it as far west. While I think that is still a pie in the sky dream it just went from impossible to "extremely improbable".

Some of those would be monster storms for most this forum

Much more negatively tilted on the 18z EPS / AIEPS. Still goes to our east / too late to curl into the coast, but a concession.

At least we got something to track!

IF we had some real cold air. And IF there wasnt a monster kicker to the NW....Maybe.

Im not sure I remember a big favorable eps shift like this in a while…let’s get another at 0z.

Totally agree…typically a bombing low tucked at the mouth of the Chesapeake to the mouth of Delaware Bay blasts the area .

Yeah, 00z runs will shed clarity on this. I’m 50/50 now on this but this dichotomy from the 12z runs are telling.

I continue to feel semi-confident in a pretty strong cold shot during March. As I noted earlier, timing that is not easy. I would put the worst of the cold between March 10-April 10. I don't think that entire time frame will be cold. I just think there is a pretty rough cold shot in there. If forced to pick a timeframe, I would take March 14-28th as the worst....and it could be much BN. The Weeklies have been pretty adamant that the earlier winter pattern will repeat sometime between March 15-30th. I do think we may well track one last storm. For now, the Olympics and Mammoth have my attention. I don't do severe.

Like I said earlier - no definitives we still have a chance with all scenarios still on the table..

We’ll see what ends up happening in the end but DT’s post about the NWS soundings a few days back could have something to do with it because we’ve seen issues all winter

That’s a long time and a lot of recovery in between. Good luck!

They had it for about 24 hours then lost it. It’s kinda a delicate balance. Everyone is just focused on snow maps and omg and model bashing but the phasing at about 24 hours is delicate balance between the two waves and just enough energy making it around the base makes the whole trough end up negative later on by putting enough energy out front to tilt the whole thing on its axis. But we’d normally never notice the relatively minor interplay of vort energy taking place if it wasn’t impacting a possible snowstorm. The result is hugely different but the cause is a relatively minor difference in handling how those 2 SWs interact within the trough early on.

Pretty wild, I didn't see this coming but it could also be a windshield wiper effect with such a drastic shift so I can see it correcting back east a bit at 0z but, who knows, this whole thing has been really unpredictable. The EPS had been pretty steady up until this cycle so this is a pretty big surprise.

Geez look at some of those members too. I don't ever recall such a drastic EPS shift in this close range. Op run yes but not the ensembles

Euro AIFS eps

In reality, I think we reach some kind of consensus in one way or another, there won't be some "cave" to either the extreme GFS result or getting nada or snow TV white rain. The trends this afternoon should certainly lend more confidence to a warning-level snow event I would think, whether the inverted trough is mostly responsible or more coastal action, or some combination. There is no way in hell we get the GFS amounts of course, but taking all guidance into account (including the latest AI models), you'd have to say an overall 4-6" or so event is now very much on the table. Obviously that could change a lot either way with later runs, but I like the semi-convergence to SOMETHING decent.

I remember reading that AFD. And then the Euro came on board lol

So what are we dealing with? GFS gives a nice dream-like coastal with heavy snow or Euro et al. show an IVT and our best hope is the IVT sets up right over us. Seems like some narrow goalposts. @CAPE @csnavywx any deeper thoughts?