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There’s a fair amount of folks here who have no idea what the potential is with this. Vort95 nailed it . Glad we recognized and jumped on board early and often.

Tomorrow and part of Thursday will be variably cloudy. A few locations could see a shower tomorrow, but dry weather should be predominant. Highs should reach the lower and middle 60s. Some periods of rain and showers are possible late Friday into the weekend. The extent of the precipitation will depend on the track of a developing storm. For now, the system looks to pass far enough from the region to produce lighter amounts of precipitation. Uncertainty still exists in terms of track and timing. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the weekend with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -9.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.201 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.6° (0.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

December had a decent snow storm from VA to north of PHL ( idk how far) with 6"+ from VA to near PHL.

Not sure what you’re talking about unless it was the reverse psychology one .

I’m sure many of you know this, but we’re down to our last few weeks with the NAM. Whether it was convective feedback issues, crushing your CAD dreams or raising them up, some of the best crashouts on this sub-forum happened at the hands of the NAM. As I write this post, we embark on one final chapter for our dear CAD leader, the NAM. A backdoor cold front is entering the Carolinas, ushering in a classic scenario east of the Apps for one final gift to measure before we lay her to rest. Please offer your condolences, or share a fond memory with the class. When all convection allowing models fall short this winter, we’ll remember her fondly.

Take a look at some of the modeling......convection is further west than you would think looking at the SSTs...my guess is that it's due to all of the warmth throughout the basin pulling it westward, as was the case in 2023....only that season was even further west and into the MC.

0.52" At least I don't need to water the grass/clover seed I put down on Sunday for at least a day lol.

1.58"

gfs back to being the goofus..

No unfortunately

Except for the last blizzard lol

Sorry for the personal question, but any thoughts on what this looks like for the Lincoln, NH area? Supposed to be going up there this weekend with the family and have until tomorrow to cancel and get my money back. Not trying to pay to be stuck in a cottage with two kids under 8 for the weekend.

I’d be surprised if he comes back this season. Sure, his foot wasn’t planted but that was still a terrible blow to his leg, bending the way it shouldn’t. I don’t see Winston improving all that much even with getting all the snaps in practice. Oh well.

Weathernerds has 950 and 975mb winds. I was impressed that 950 wasn’t much different vs 925. In fact gfs at one point was stronger at 950 vs 925 lol. Anyways doesn’t mean much now. Just need to watch intensity and track. But if this went into EWB or ACY, it’s a pretty strong hit for many areas. Difference might be gusts 55-60mph vs 65-70mph with strongest winds on N and NW side of the low.

86-87 was a moderate el nino..Mid Atlantic did very well with snowfall..87-88 was a weak el nino at it warmer than normal..the 88 with a strong La Nina

December looks pretty east-based to me. The Feb 1983 -NAO was the result of stratospheric reflection, which is as a byproduct of a STRONGER PV due to the westerly QBO....not sure I agree it was the result of a weaker PV tied to more Modoki like forcing. This season is absolutely a candidate for that wave one blocking like 1983.

Yeah that was 70kt plus at 950. Don’t see that happening.

Got to see how winds time with the tides. May take a ride down to Marshfield Saturday night.

There's a good possibility of a impactful storm for the subforum this weekend. If the storm comes close enough we can expect rain and strong winds. The largest impacts will likely be significant coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and severe beach erosion. This storm will also occur during astronomical high tides. This has the potential to be a dangerous storm for the coast and an impactful storm elsewhere depending on exact track and strength. Enjoy tracking the event with us.

1.25” since Sunday

I think the reason we prefer 1983 is a blizzard in February l...1998 had 0 snow in NYC until March 22nd when 5 inches fell and that was it. So basically in 97-98 it didn't snow at all till the Spring.

La Nina ftw. At least over here, and esp right at the coast.

That would have been obvious to someone considering the solar and stratosphere implications. I bet a pattern like 1983 would have a more poleward/inland STJ given the more modest PDO.