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We're winning so much we might even get tired of winning. Thank you for your attention...
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
forkyfork replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
it made a bunch of weird losers mad. mission accomplished <3 -
WE will see-alot of these wet solutions have busted outside of Memorial day weekend disaster.
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DLH Spring ranking Max avg 48.5 (tied 30th warmest out of 83 unique avg's) Min avg 28.8 (tied 37th warmest out of 78 unique avg's) Mean avg 38.7 (tied 29th warmest out of 73 unique avg's) Precip 6.25" (58th driest out of 146 unique amounts) Pretty mid range, so an average Spring within the record, and somewhat on the drier side.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
forkyfork replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Today will be the 11th of the last 13 days with below normal temperatures. Sunny and dry through Saturday. We should finally see some warmer than average temperatures by the end of the week and into the weekend. Rain chances look to increase by Sunday. -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Today will be the 11th of the last 13 days with below normal temperatures. Sunny and dry through Saturday. We should finally see some warmer than average temperatures by the end of the week and into the weekend. Rain chances look to increase by Sunday. -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
I am compiling the final averages but it looks like Chester County will finish around a 1 degree below the 1991-2020 average for the Month of May -
3 days in the 80s in June (others will get 4). Nothing obscene. Kinda boring. No thunderstorms, etc. for a bit
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Thanks, Chris. Indeed, Cansips was much too cold in the E US this spring. And it has been too cold there at other times. But I’m curious. Does it actually have a well analyzed documented cold bias in the E US based on an amply sized sample based on a good number of years? I wouldn’t be surprised but it’s important to know, of course. -
I use MRCC cli-MATE data portal. Josh may use something else. https://mrcc.purdue.edu/
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As for this ASOS stuff, I personally have issue with them anyway. I made this known when I first joined the forum a few years ago. There main function is for airport ops, not climate monitoring. Their placements generally suck. I have found some smaller airports where they placed them in decent spots. One that comes to mind is Ann Arbor, and Eau Claire seems decent. So, in the end, I've just given myself this advice. "Suck it up, shut up, and just enjoy the f**king the weather!" And if homogeny is such a stickler for some, well, you might just as well abandon the temp profiles of stations, and get a job at a milk plant. So, again, take my advice I've given myself; "Suck it up, shut up, and just enjoy the f**king the weather!"
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The long range forecasts from the CanSIPS have a strong cold bias. Notice how the model had a cold spring especially in the Great Lakes and Northeast from the older forecasts. Didn’t really begin to catch on until the March 1st update. But even then it was too cold. Verification 2nd warmest spring on record for the CONUS Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social Follow Spring (Mar-May) temperature departure from the 1991-2020 normal. Seems warm. Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social · 20h Spring 2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the Contiguous U.S. (2012). A majority of locations had a top 5 warmest spring compared to all springs since 1895 and many places had their warmest. Only a small area of the northern Plains had a cool spring compared to the full period-of-record. 2:07 PM · Jun 1, 2026 Everybody -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
pasnownut replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Facts always > feelings.... Hope yall are enjoying the beautiful stretch of early summer. Hard not to enjoy what the last few days have given us. -
A truly fascinating article on the development of a new AI model using data assimilation from this startups own balloon data network. https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/01/this-ai-weather-startup-is-out-forecasting-government-agencies/
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Yep, we can’t get a weekend with both days having nice weather of late. Have to enjoy Saturday before it goes to hell again.
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June 2 1945: Snow and sleet pile up to 4.5 inches at Tower. 1898: Heavy rain falls across Minnesota. Just over 7 inches is reported at Pine River Dam. For Tuesday, June 2, 2026 1889 - A great flood on the Potomac River in Washington D.C. took out a span of Long Bridge, and flooded streets near the river. The flood stage reached was not again equaled until 1936. (David Ludlum) 1917 - The temperature at Tribune, KS dipped to 30 degrees to establish a state record for the month of June. (The Weather Channel) 1949 - A tornado northeast of Alfalfa OK circled an area one mile in radius. (The Weather Channel) 1985 - Lightning struck a house, broke a bedroom window, and jumped to a metal frame bed. A man was killed but his wife was unharmed by the lightning. (The Weather Channel) (Note: Guess his pole wasn't grounded that night. Yeah, OK, bad joke) 1987 - Thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes in West Texas and six tornadoes in Illinois. Thunderstorms in Illinois produced wind gusts to 70 mph at McComb and Mattoon. Thunderstorms in southern Texas produced 5.5 inches of rain south of Seguin, and up to eight inches of rain in Washington County. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Severe thunderstorms in Texas and Oklahoma produced hail more than three inches in diameter near Stilwater OK, and softball size hail in Jones County of north central Texas. Baseball size hail and 70 mph winds caused an estimated 100 million dollars damage around Abilene TX. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather across much of the south central U.S. through most of the day and night. Thunderstorms spawned a dozen tornadoes, and there were 123 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 78 mph at Russell KS, and baseball size hail was reported at Denver CO, Cuthbert TX, and in Reeves County TX. Afternoon thunderstorms in southern New England produced wind gusts to 120 mph at Fitchburg, MA, causing five million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
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It’s like a bear safari around here. This guy was just chilling on the shoulder grazing away this morning. Much bigger than the one last night.
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Try finding something else here. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/getpage/ It's going to take time to redo stuff. I emailed them earlier this year, and they are understaffed, especially from retirements.
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Sunday looking wet now
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Latest CFS DJF fits super Nino climo well unlike what Cansips is still showing, which may be related to it having Modoki: CFS DJF: looks like what one would expect with super-Nino: Cansips DJF: still looks off but may be due to it having Modoki - Today
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Cansips is still going full Modoki unlike Euro and CFS. But I think it may have a Modoki bias based on at least one previous year. Latest Cansips DJF has warmest SST anomalies over W region 3.4/region 4: (**corrected** as I had region 3 typo) *Edited for typo -
The truth is probably in the middle. Some nice warmth and less Labrador azz going forward, but true summer is still being blocked to our SW.
