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Does this look familiar? Ocean Storm Poised To Brush Region On Sunday-Sunday Night Accumulations Largely Limited To Cape & Islands It appeared on Monday as though the second major winter storm within a week may impact the area with heavy snows, however, it now appears as though the region will be largely spared. Synoptic Overview The ingredients for major storm are still indeed brewing tonight. The two systems are still expected to phase over the Tennessee Valley this weekend, which makes for an ominous set up if one were to take a cursory glance at the chart below. However, as the weekend unfolds, two elements conspire to facilitate a track largely out to sea despite what is prototypically an ideal western CONUS ridge placement for a major northeast US strike. First of all, there is a follow up "kicker" system dropping into the northern plains, which acts to force the lead storm to continue moving along before it can phase proficiently. This prevents the low from gaining as much latitude as it otherwise would have with a western ridge thought Idaho and Montana. Secondly, there is an area of lead convection well south of New England that works in conjunction with the aforementioned trailing kicker over the northern plains to bias the movement of the system on a more eastward trajectory than it otherwise would have given that western CONUS ridge position. Thus the system cannot gain enough latitude to have a major impact on the region. That being said, some significant snowfall cannot be ruled out over the cape and islands on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Expected Storm Evolution

Man @CoastalWx weening his own kid. You know things are getting thrown against the walls in that house right now. At least we have May 1 season to look forward to, right @weatherwiz!!!!

I'd be a lot more excited/hopeful if the low was wrapped up off of Hatteras than the Eastern Shore haha

At this range there should be less spread among the members with the mean looking more like the op run, and that's what is happening. Doesn't mean its correct.

Yeesh many of the Gefs are just as bullish as the op… pretty tight cluster to the nw of the mean. this is either going to be an all time fail by the gfs suite or the coup of the decade. My money is on fail but it’s definitely going down swinging.

Well we were due for an event to vaporize right before our eyes

Spring this year may be one of memories... it's been forever ago qr have had this much cold, ice and water temps in the 30s . Unless that's a big big stretch of 70s/80s early on i can't see it getting warm for a while unless your away from shorelines.

Don't worry. I won't

Yup, most of the energy is onshore today. The recon is also for atmospheric river research/data.

There's only so much lipstick you can put on a pig, I bet we start seeing a GFS cave coming up.

ha yep look at that warm air wrapping into it on the 850mb panel

YES...I have made this comparison probably at least a dozen times. Seen the movie play out this season before and it's a waste of time that I hope to withdraw from over the weekend.

You kind of do

And it’s a similar setup too with the confluence that’s been a common denominator with these.

Trend is there and it's tightening up, as one would expect. Losing most of the s and e members too

Very similar to late January for that Feb 1st system when the Euro was on an island for a few runs. All other guidance was contorting itself with a plethora of different looks that all produced no snow. This time it’s the GFS but same idea. The misses look tantalizing but they miss for a reason.

Yup. Unfortunately it’s definitely not a “clean” setup here which results in mayhem for both us and the models Threading one needle is hard enough, but with this kinda system we need to thread like 3 or 4 for it to reach its max potential, which still is quite high not impossible, and threading a couple may result in a decent snowfall in its own right… but I wouldn’t bet on the GFS at this point

A cave is gonna happen in one direction or another. GFS vs Euro tug of war LOL.

I thought today was the day when it comes on shore out west? I could be talking out of my ass though?

plenty of time for that to happen.... or not. lol with other models coming back around to the storm idea, at least that consensus is forming in a favorable way. pretty wide goalposts tho and we are on the far left side. Starting to feel like a plowable event is looking like a good possibility.

yeah it's like pulling teeth most years to get anything decent outside of a day or two in April

I can imagine it.. in fact I'm praying for it!!

GEFS really leaning into the tucked solution as we get closer. At hour 84, the OP run that just annihilated most of us was well west of where the offshore cluster is. The low was over the southern Chesapeake.

Yes, there were recon data yesterday at 18z and 00z in the eastern Pacific. Looks like some recon data is scheduled again for 00z this evening.