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During more +PNA intervals like this fall the, the Southeast ridge was focused to the east building into Eastern New England and Canada. So these frequent WAR and Southeast ridge patterns are interchangeable. They both have been leading to dominant Great Lakes and hugger tracks whether we have had +PNA or -PNA patterns over the last 7 years since 2018-2019. 10 wettest days storm track 500 mb composite this fall around the area with dominant Great Lakes cutter and hugger storm tracks and strong +PNA WAR pattern

Like I said, hes pushing 50 and banned from multiple boards for years for being an idiot. Some people dont grow up. 25 this morning, coldest of season so far

But It’s also been consistent…that was my point. Doesn’t mean anything with regard to the upcoming winter season, just like only a couple coastals means nothing either..only that it has been consistently cool/cold for autumn and November.

Let's see how the AI model performs in December -will it show some consistency moving forward ?

Watching this right now…

I'm never cooked, only relaying information. My realistic views usually serve me well!

The dry part is more concerning than the warm part IMO

Agreed. It’s a different year, we’ll have our chances.

Maybe no one on here but plenty of people have. Also , no clue why are you throwing in the towel in November. You do this all the time.

Literally no one is predicting December to be cold and active

27 here earlier this morning, frosty

Nice little scooter high nudging in for the SWFE at the end of the EURO run. It’d be refreshing to see HP timing and placement coalesce with approaching shortwaves for maximum potential rather than decaying HP’s exiting stage right every damn time.

It means nothing either in the grand scheme of things.

Thanks, one more thing i wanted to mention. The radar from 2003-present is from IEM (Iowa State) where you can create and save to a gif but 2002 and earlier is from NCEI interactive radar that cannot be saved and you can only view one still snapshot in time. So to make those i had to capture images, frame by frame import them into photoshop, crop and sort them and make an animated gif or .mp4 video file from those frames, which was the most tedious thing you can imagine....each storm is 100-200 frames (Mar 4-6 2001 is 400 frames). But i think it's really cool to see the radar of these old storms, that were once lost to time, in an animation.

Unreliable D10-11 EPS signal, but cyclically advertised, possibly biased high by single model output... an ice event I84 corridor around Dec 3-4? Standard high terrain but even some minor indication valleys just nw of I95. Again D10-11 so chances are? I am monitoring for myself.

Saw the prior 24 hours of posts... and suggests but not locked into a Wind Advy thread Fri 11/28, possibly starting Thanksgiving afternoon. Awaiting 12z/24 (Monday) modeling.

Larry Cosgrove thinks December will be mild and January and February will be colder. I haven't heard anyone say that expect him. All I have been hearing and seeing are cold and active December forecasts due to the PV.

Same in ashburn

Warm pocket. Actually had a couple lenticulars this morn.

Long range ensemble guidance has also routinely undersold the +PNA the last few months, this example of course flips that script

wow, I got down to 22. it’s not often that the MHT tropics are colder than you

That system is on our doorstep now, so we should have a decent sense for potential accumulations. The latest BTV NWS forecast discussion that mentioned accumulations was from earlier this morning: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1251 AM EST Sun Nov 23, 2025 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Total accumulations will be relatively light, mainly 2 inches or less, with the highest accumulations above 1500 ft. The summits could pick up 3 to 5 inches during this time frame. On their most recent maps for expected snowfall, it looks like projections are for 4-6” in the higher elevations, and 1-2” in the mountain valleys, so that seems to jive with the forecast: As I mentioned in my report from yesterday, the mountains could use a refresher to bump the powder conditions up a couple of notches, and it’s always nice to cover up some of the open areas in the valleys as well. This event certainly won’t be a full resurfacing event for the slopes, but the models generally suggest something on the 0.1”-0.3” of liquid equivalent for the mountains (with the 3K NAM being up there >0.5”, which is typically exaggerated as PF has been noting). It looks like snow chances will start to pick up a bit more as we go forward with the GFS showing 6-7 systems through the course of the latest deterministic run.: Sun-Mon: Clipper Wed-Thu: System heading into northern Ontario/Quebec Thu-Sun: Cold Front/LES Mon-Tue: Snow/Mix/Rain Tue-Fri: Rain to snow After that there are a couple more systems into the first week of December, but that’s way out there in the modeling of course. In any event, many of the systems have some rain potential, but lots of frontside/backside snow potential as well.

That U-shape to climate change over North America should be engrained in your brain… where Bangor Maine is +4 while DFW is less than +1 over the same time frame. This of course follows the behavior of the jet. The cold has increasing propensity to dump over the central US, but warmer SST’s especially with latitude is generating more inland runners. Shortwaves are finding less suppression as they travel east. No surprises here. The observational snowfall in the northeast has also followed with significant winters in Vermont and Upstate NY and the far interiors of NH and Maine. There will be exceptions of course, but this is new key persistence to factor into your seasonal forecasts, especially when this tendency is showing itself in real time, as it is now.

The long range EPS keeps underestimating that forcing in the 120E to 150E Maritime Continent regions. New run Old run