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AIFS ENS

I haven't chimed in on this threat really because it's super thread the needle, but the Euro AI has the favorable changes we need at hour 48-54 with that piece of northern energy. Also, our southern vort is a bit more progressive which allows for more constructive phasing vs destructive phasing between the two shortwaves. The flow is so progressive so I'm just not sure how we get that NS wave to phase in, but crazier things have happened

It had 10 runs in a row with hits for this weekend and then it took it Florida and now it’s back lol

Unfor for me and my dc metro brethen I think you may be right. Still a chance for a last second overperforming surprise

Toss it long, Toss it deep for the 16th, I still can believe some are still grasping

I'm a simple man, I see a thread pinned for an event within 5 days, I click. Let's start this slop-clock!

If i had to guess for Loudoun anyone who is east of 15 by as little as 100' gets zero and anyone west of 15 gets 2" plus

Not really, peope were just happy to see any type of snow in March 2017. It pretty much saved the season. Without it, 2016-17 would have been just another BN snowfall season to go along with a torch winter.

I think Harrisburg had that too if my memory serves me correct.

spread tightened up

I'm not hating on it

i hate the median maps. Its like Dr no on steroids

Euro called into CWG for their range predictions?

it is the best performing model. however it has zero support from anything else.

sounds like an all or nothing event

I remember that storm well, too. I was living in Bethlehem, and we had two consecutive hours of 5" per hour snowfall, which is still the heaviest rate I've seen in my lifetime.

But that is the best median we've seen

If I can get 17" out of this I'll be at climo

It knows where I live

75th percentile 90th percentile

I said they like snow chases not grail quests

We are so back! Till 18z

We’d always say “March averages more snow than December here”. Seems like that has regressed a bit to be about even. Yeah ‘93 may inflate things, but we’ve all had a few abnormally light Marches as well. So it tends to balance, and the average is what it is. I think even though mindsets start to shift away from winter - still historically plenty of opportunities through March.

EPS is a 3.4" mean in Philly, 55% chance of P > 1", compared to only 33% at 6z