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  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    You can see from my correlation maps above where it's centered, very near the North Pacific High max
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I mean in general....no relevance to this season, though ...although I don't think it's as clear cut as many do for other reasons.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    IIRC, any forecast beyond D3 now is straight AI/auto generated with minimal input from forecasters. If I am wrong, someone please correct me.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Of course +QBO this Winter evens that tendency out.
  6. Hurricane Agnes
    I was wondering what happened when my GR2Analyst stopped updating yesterday. I eventually switched to KDOX. I ended up at 87 for a high after a 69 low and only picked up 0.34" total from 2 rounds yesterday . Today was like day and night with the dp drop... actually tolerable. High was 82 after a 69 low and smoke mostly cleared out. Currently mostly sunny and 80 with dp 60.
  7. RickinBaltimore
    Spain wins the World Cup giving up exactly 1 goal the entire tournament. I don't think I've ever seen a defensive showing like that before.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is this the Walker Cycle?
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is somewhat anecdotal, but the fact that 1997-1998 was extremely east-based and wasn't a severely +NAO supports your postulation.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just think the difference between west and east-based may be a little exaggerated because of NAO domain El Nino by itself supports warm Stratosphere, which over like hundreds of years is net -NAO I think for east and west based, although slight
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just went through the numbers on the intense composite, which is mostly east-based....it's like .67 NAO for DJFM...nothing obscene. AO is is just about neutral.
  12. Typhoon Tip
    yeah it's looked like that for awhile. The numerical teleconnectors suggest -PNA/+EPO with eastern limb -NAO from 24th + ... if folks want to get into the 2nd of the 3 typical heat periods summers ever give us around here, that looks to be a good time for #2 - albeit late. 3rd'll have to be later August but by then ...we're past solar max so we get cheated in New England as usual. LOL but anything to continue being colder relative to everywhere else while still registering warmer than normal, a leitmotif that's had one or two exceptions by has been predominating our monthly results since last summer really when I began keeping track of the sneaking butt boning
  13. NorthHillsWx
    Had one blow up overhead and drop a quick 0.14”. Wasn’t even on radar yet and it was pouring
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    There is a slight +NAO skew in east-based Nino composites, which while probably still warm (especially with -PDO), it probably isn't as warm as historical analog suggests. Of course these days neutral is 85% chance of above normal Winter.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's probably when it finally has legit PNA-correlation! A lot of people think ENSO is linked to PNA but it's actually more linked to North Pacific High
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    This year is kind of the inverse of that, which is why I think we have a shot for something decent....there is a TON of warmth, but there is more to the west than 1997 and 1982....however, the warm pool is def. getting further east than 2023, so I feel like we will get some periods of Modoki forcing with less MC competition.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I figured there was something missed. Yes. It's not JUST about strength.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Theoretically speaking, if we venture to the land of make believe, and pull off a 3.2 ONI that is just about void of warmth in regions 1.2 and 3, then sure.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Oh, that's in the 2nd part of the post that you didn't highlight. That's why I thought you were only talking about strength. 02-03 was probably the 2nd strongest Modoki. My favorite Winter all time! Yeah it does go hand-in-hand strength and where it's usually based, that's because there are usually much cooler waters further east, much more room to warm in a stable system.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    You aren't getting what I'm saying. We aren't going to get an event that powerful that doesn't leak into the east. Find an example.....I'll give you a lifetime...go. 2009 is the closest, but not to that magnitude.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    If you put your heat in your living room on 80 degrees, the living room may warm to 75 and the kitchen 70. If you put your heat in the living room on 90 degrees, the living room may warm to 85 and the kitchen 70. lol Everyone thinks the kitchen goes to 80 degrees.
  22. WxUSAF
    Spain cannot get the ball in the net eta….until they did!
  23. IrishRob17
    I saw someone on the NE side mention “shot across the bow” and I chuckled. A beauty of a day for sure.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    It doesn't skew things differently. Absolutely not. If Nino 4 was +1.7c, Atlanta might be -3 for the Winter. If Nino 4 is +3.4c, Atlanta may be -6 for the Winter. Everyone thinks it moves around anomalies which isn't true beyond 0.01% general warming things.
  25. John1122
    It's rained .75 here today and some areas near me got 1 to 1.5 inches. Looks like upstream is loaded for another round in a few hours. If they don't die out.
  26. 40/70 Benchmark
    It absolutely does in a sense because good luck keeping the warmth out of the eastern ENSO region in an event of this magnitude.
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