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Ray, Adam, and others, I’m trying not to take sides. I just want the great discussion back in the main thread. Would y’all please take this fight to here in banter? TIA @snowman19

I injected some sarcasm by mocking him a bit....guilty; but there was no need for the absurd racism accusation. Anyone with any familiarity with this thread knew what I was doing there. He has a tendency to respond to resistance in this truly vile manner that usually includes very derogatory insults, and in this case, a pathetic attempt to inject race as a means to vilify me rather than simply address the point. Primitive deflection tactic.

Ray, I have no issue, whatsoever, in anyone emphasizing the significance of the restrengthening -PDO, especially since I very recently posted about the up to date WCS PDO plunge. But it got out of hand from there and I’m trying to do whatever I can to get it back on track. That’s why I’m responding to your post here in banter. I’m not taking sides but just want that great thread to get back on track with high quality discussion.

Yup

.55" of rain yesterday.

As do I......I also have hope that one day you will succeed in wrapping your mind around the fact that this is not mutually exclusive with the fact that there remains significant MC influence throughout the hemisphere.

Yea, David Gold, Paul Roundy, Eric Webb, all have bizarre ENSO agendas. As do the foreign mets who I’ve quoted. They all agree that this is a well coupled canonical El Niño event. I’m done with this asinine pissing contest with you

Shocking that only one of us in this thread has a history of being 5 PPD...can't possible think of why.

Think first half August warm.

Larry, I don't see the issue with reenforcing the fact that this July has been more representative of the -PDO data set and it has the developing super El Niño.

What? Why don't you formulate a cohesive counter to the point rather than deflecting with silly attempts to inject race into the issue and copy and past a slew of tweets. I'm a licensed social worker with 4 African children and an African wife, who was mocking your proclivity to scan every crevice of the internet for tweets to quote that fit your bizarre ENSO agenda.

Folks, this thread has had great met. discussion recently. Please don’t let it get out of hand. Because this is my favorite met. thread at this BB, I’d appreciate it if the El Niño banter thread were used instead for certain posts, which is easy to do by quoting a post from here and responding to it at this link:

I’d take it.

Is that supposed to be a racist comment? Seasoned mets who don’t speak English from other countries are stupid and aren’t qualified to comment in their own language? Their posts are useless because they aren’t from here? Horrible, insensitive/bigoted post from you. This El Niño is extremely well coupled: “We are witnessing in the field today the process I described at the beginning of May: as the ITCZ’s active core settles over the Pacific, the convective envelope strengthened in phases 6–7 of the MJO is fueling successive westerly wind burst pulses in the Western–Central Pacific. This injection of westerly momentum weakens the trade winds, carries equatorial Kelvin waves eastward, and deepens the thermocline in the east, thereby accelerating surface warming. Thus, the strong temperature excess that begins in the coastal/eastern Pacific spreads into the basin along Niño 3–3.4; as the Walker circulation breaks down, the Bjerknes feedback kicks in. In short, the atmosphere is no longer merely responding to the warm ocean—it is amplifying it: the coastal-origin, east-central weighted pattern is advancing step by step toward the Super El Niño threshold. Additionally, since El Niño modulates +tropical forcings during this period, it carries a distinct signature in mid-latitude response composites.” https://x.com/atmoslabwx/status/2075960267096100992?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

For the record, this is worse for winter than a classic super El Niño look...I have no interest in MC influence for the coming winter, but I have even less interest in cherry picking data.

Hey @snowman19, maybe you find find some tweets in Swahili that will convince us this July has shaped up like this.

83F/DP 64F Mid week heat wave appears to be short lived w/Wed probably being the most intense...

The fact that we still have a very healthy -PDO in place tells me this El Niño has some work to do with respect to vanquishing the competing MC influence, regardless of how man posts we can find on the internet suggesting otherwise.

Obviously this isn't going to impact many posters here and the population density isn't as high, however, this potential is deserving of its own thread. The potential exists for a rather significant severe weather event either late Tuesday afternoon or evening/overnight across northern New England. Daytime temperatures are expected to climb well into the 80's within the region and probably some spot 90's with dewpoints pushing into the lower 70's. This combination under the presence of an elevated-mixed layer characterized by mid-level lapse rates on order of 7+ C/Km will result in an extremely unstable atmosphere with MLCAPE values pushing or exceeding 3000 J/KG. While the timing of this event may be more evening or overnight, instability values will drop off due to the loss of daytime heating, however, MLCAPE values should remain around 1500+ J/KG. With the region on the northern periphery of a stout mid-level ridge that is centered over the northern Plains, strong flow will overspread the region with 60-70+ knots of 500mb flow, aiding in the potential for bulk shear values exceeding 50 knots. In addition, a strong surface cold front will be diving south. The combination of instability and wind shear ahead of the approaching cold front will set the stage for the development of one, or perhaps multiple clusters or lines of thunderstorms across Quebec which propagate across northern New England late in the day or during the evening or overnight. Given the ingredients, the potential exists for a concentrated swath of damaging wind gusts (perhaps some significant wind gusts), and if any supercells develop there will be a risk for large-to-very large hail, and even the risk for a few tornadoes (though this is largely dependent on storm mode and whether surface winds can remain more southerly ahead of the front.

The first 15 days of August 1988 were brutal in New England. I think I had 13 of 15 days AOA 90 and the other two 89. Then a strong cold front came through and the rest of the month avg slightly below for temps.

“40 knot westerly wind anomalies potentially emerging right over the warmest water east of the dateline. The synoptic elements are too small scale to be accurately predicted here. What it's indicating is enhanced risk of seasonally extreme equatorial westerlies through the middle and into the end of July.” SOI: 30 day: -23, 90 day: -16 EPAC TC season has started:

00z euro was really hot up here. 12z gfs goes from 24C to 0C up near CAR. Could be a couple chilly nights for the rad pits.

If you play hoops, then you know that this is goat-level weather (near 80, mostly cloudy/partly sunny, and mostly calm winds). I loved the desert sun, but it was breezy (unusually breezy) and obviously dry almost every day.

Zero staying power though

Yep - it’s always the most likely scenario when outlooked that far out. Things will almost always trend earlier or later and either direction can of course be worse for timing.