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This CFSv2 seasonal prediction site, which includes the ENSO SSTa forecasts, hasn’t updated in over 4 days: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml

Next week looks like the worst September weather week of a lifetime

That’s going to take a big hit next week.

83 / 61 more sun now

Surprised you didn't post this snowfall map posted in the NE forum that shows AN snowfall in a good part of the Mid Atlantic. You commented on it in the NE forum.

You think this storm system is a sign that we might be seeing the nino couple atmospherically? Looked briefly at the H5 maps and it seems to be almost miller-B ish though as most vorticity is coming from the north to the south (or is the subtropical jet still displaced north due to summer?)

Well.... an unforecasted short rain shower just went through Frederick...

12Z UKMET is at least the 2nd full run with it as a TD but the prior run didn’t do so until hour 36 (tomorrow at 8AM EDT) before dissipating it 48 hrs later; this run has it already doing that as of 2PM EDT today and then moving very little and never becoming a TS prior to dissipating at hour 96: GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 18.09.2026 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 31.9N 34.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 19.09.2026 12 32.2N 33.6W 1016 20 1200UTC 19.09.2026 24 32.7N 33.2W 1014 22 0000UTC 20.09.2026 36 33.1N 33.4W 1015 22 1200UTC 20.09.2026 48 33.8N 32.9W 1014 27 0000UTC 21.09.2026 60 35.0N 32.6W 1014 25 1200UTC 21.09.2026 72 34.5N 31.9W 1015 27 0000UTC 22.09.2026 84 33.5N 32.7W 1017 25 1200UTC 22.09.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

You'd probably want the High to start a bit more south as the surface winds would probably be more easterly than ne'ly, which would hurt the lower levels. Plus there's no slp off the coast to pull in a northerly component to the surface flow. This knowledge comes from age.

WB Can. Day 7 total; it is going to be a long winter of tracking ahead...

and thanks again

GGEM dropping a casual 6-8”

How is this not snow?

Yes

I found some of the euro seasonal stuff from Fall 2023 for that winter.

Very rare occasions will it hit 80 in October and 80 in November is unheard of.

Do you know if there are discussions within the NWS about a potential future of probabilistic warnings? I am currently taking a Weather and Society class (which is extremely interesting) which involves reading alot of research papers. I guess there has been some work and studies done about probabilistic tornado warnings, where you have your deterministic warning polygon but within the polygon is color coded probabilities of being directly impacted by the tornado. I have many mixed emotions about anything probabilistic in terms of public communication, especially with something like warnings but the results of such studies are actually a bit intriguing in that they may help influence (positively) people's decision making and action taken. Would the NWS ever consider such approach?

In recent years it has been much later. More like mid october.

Average date of last 80 for NYC is September 29.

If you’re central park you can go a year without much snow at all LOL. More seriously though nyc has gotten the short end of the stick in recent winters. Even though last winter was great, the park still ended with 44” which was significantly below parts of NJ directly adjacent to the city. I think manhattan is a uniquely hostile environment for snow given its latitude.

And I will be camping for a week beginning next weekend in Searsport, Maine. Hope to see some peak leaf activity especially in Acadia National Park. Temperatures there this week have been 60s during the day and 40s at night. I’m gonna have to hope for an East Coast heat wave!