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That doesn’t look to deep on the vegetation pal…

Near record and record cold covered the region this morning. Records included: Allentown: 24° (old record: 28°, 1925, 1956, and 2018) Hartford: 27° (tied record set in 1961) Poughkeepsie: 24° (old record: 26°, 2018) Scranton: 24° (old record: 26°, 1925) Westhampton: 22° (old record: 23°, 2014) White Plains: 27° (old record: 29°, 1981) The last time White Plains recorded a low in the 20s on or after April 21st was April 23, 1982. Tomorrow will be somewhat milder with highs returning to the upper 50s. The temperature could approach or reach 70° on Thursday before another cooling trend commences. No cold shots comparable to the current one are likely for the remainder of spring. No significant rainfall appears likely through the foreseeable future. Some showers are possible during the weekend. There remains some risk for a more meaningful rainfall given the lead time involved. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -5.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.507 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.6° (1.9° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Where will we meet up now in Boston? https://www.boston.com/food/food-news/2026/04/21/clarkes-faneuil-hall-closed/?p1=hp_featurebox

Please tell me you aren’t calling that leaf out.

A beautiful evening. 58 and feels warmer.

I thought maybe you guys in Chicago would be talking about this storm an hour and a half ago

53F at 6pm This weekend looks great...

Despite being cool.. deep spring on the vegetation moves along. Oak leaves continue slowly opening. About 2 weeks early

i will never plant a tomato before mother's day

Hello, winter in Mammoth Lakes: https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village

Thanks so much for replying to me with these recs! Will check em out. Apologies for the late response.

Was following along on some live feeds overnight with some of the orchards usings helicopters and burn barrels. What year was it recently where everyone lost a bunch of apples? 2016 maybe?

Bluewave has posted graphs of a linear warming trend in Nino 4, 1950-present. It's much more of a straight line than other ENSO regions.

Of course we'll get it in May and June.

What’s the deal with all this extreme warmth in Nino 4 during recent El Niños? When you think of the classic strong/super Nino you always think of Nino 4 not being too warm or maybe even below normal. Nino 4 is up to +1 already according to Cyclonicwx.

These winds are a joke

I think models are overdoing it -- you want the SOI to be lower, but it never got strong in 2023 so it may still be a lagging indicator, which it has been for the last 3 years.

Indeed, the CFSv2 gets Nino 3 to just above +3.0 in Nov and Dec for non-relative anomalies:

Today’s EWs continue to look good overall (certainly much better than how it’s been in the SE for most weeks in recent months) during the two weeks 4/27-5/10: 4/27-5/3: 5/4-10:

With 5 of the next 8 days in outlooks, I was hoping chaser drama on X would cease, and people would concentrate on the forecast. Silly me! What was I thinking? We shall refer to Monday as Monday or whatever day outlook it is (as time passes) and omit the date which shall not be named. Same for that year. Possible another day crops up next week too. That still doesn't make it that year. It makes it spring in the South!

Op Euro still not enthused

Ever notice this? There are fewer tornadoes in Missouri. Each of the available tornado-climatology maps on the SPC violent tornadoes research page show that this is generally true. Any time the SPC puts a 10% or greater tornado outlook for Missouri, I'm thinking, "there probably won't be a big tornado in Missouri."