All Activity

The 00z NAM is legit

I do think cams particularly hrrr are underdone with snow. 1-2in I think is a good bet here. Hrrr barely had half inch.

Tucked neighbors in the valley in the pines sandy soil

If we're getting one more semi decent clipper in a few days then covering the grass with this one first would be cool. Ik I was talking big game about 12" or leave it but I hadn't fully processed that we could have one more mini winter period if we just get enough to stack at least Especially with the cold that comes part and parcel might as well play pretend one more time before next year

Not saying the GFS is right by any means, but CAMs are terrible with snow, imo.

Places like Iron Mt Michigan with 3.75 to 4 qpf all snow winds to 60mph .4ft within the windows of potential. Pretty epic

0z gfs drastically different than cams for areas further south

Image

Milwaukee just posted warnings/advisories. I assume LOT will put us under an advisory tomorrow.

Ive actually compiled data on SDDs ever since you told me what they were. Solid for DTW....DJF sdds were 297.

I wish there was a really good lighted live webcam there. I need a snow watching fix SO BAD and the Sierras are already in mid Spring. Damn damn damn!

A mini jackpot for cyclone. Hopefully it works out for there, after a shockingly snow-free period since 12/8 (and after last season’s record low snowfall for MLI).

Feel like we get an annual 8-10” where some place in the area goes over a foot (just not MSP airport proper) but I also think it’s hard to actually get enough moisture this far up north to go over a foot area-wide without a lake nearby. Instead we get a decent amount of the prairie/plains climate getting a few inches here or there and holding onto them while it’s below zero every night for 2 weeks.

Possibly…but I guess my point is that it hasn’t really ever been consistently good, other than the glory days in the late 1970s and 1980s. Of course 2013-14 was good, but that’s only one season.

Image

0Z GFS has another SE shift with the track of the surface low through N IL

It's only going to get worse.

Of course you’re just the messenger, but there are so many ways to respond to this pathetic reality. I guess I’ll go with the simplest stat - total 2025-26 SDDs for ORD during DJF was 107 (60 of which were from the first 10 days of December), which means a mean daily snow depth of only 1.2”…and only a 0.6” mean depth for the last 80 days of met winter. And that’s supposedly our best winter season in several years. On top of that, ORD actually had one of the better snow totals in N IL, as areas N and W had materially lower snowfall. Plus, no white Christmas for anyone. And I didn’t shovel once after the early December storm. How does that happen? Are we supposed to be grateful for this? No - all it represents is an abominable commentary on our climo.

Back many years ago I was cat fishing the Marietta bend below chickies rock when a suspected meteoriite made impact somewhere in lancaster. Whatever tonight was was also many magnitudes, brighter and louder then that.

I don’t have the data to support but I’m pretty sure our upper echelon storms start to cluster around 12-13”. Anything over that is pretty good for us. .

Some pretty jaw dropping wording from the headlines of the latest AFD from NWS Marquette. This thing is going to be a truly remarkable (and dangerous) storm for even the winter-hardened folks of the UP.

Well last night the 0z Hi Res group had us under sleet / dry slot and the death band in Hinckley at this hour so we might get better predictability just dusting off the old Microsoft Paint. Anyways bird in the hand is worth two in the bush; I measured 2” as of 10 pm under this initial band, comes out to ~0.75” per hour or so. .

Apparently, they can set off ordinance after sunset, but i've certainly never seen the flash from explosions that far away this lit everything up like it was daytime and seemed to come from the sky. It was also many times louder than any ordinance.I've ever heard from indian town gap.

Looks like it could be a top 10 event for MSP. Just needs to exceed 16.0”. I’m surprised that MSP (POR 140 years) only has 3 storms of 18”+, and only 22 storms between 13-17”. That’s disappointing. On the latter, I would have expected at least twice as many, and probably even 3x as many (which would imply one such storm every other year). A 13” storm isn’t supposed to be a big deal for MSP, but apparently it is.

In my book, that’s a solid B…and it would be a B+ if the snow cover was 3”+ on a majority of those 99 days.