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It was clear enough for about 15 minutes around 11:30 last night. It was pretty cool to see... nothing like the solar in 2024

I made sure I checked a few days in advance if the GFS was calling for rain today. It wasn't. But it's looking like it could rain today with a 30% chance. Like I said before the model is absolutely garbo now

Yeah until that pesky ridge off SoithEastern Japan breaks down it shouldnt happen.Everytime you see long range models trying to show this in the long range is from troughs to fast or just not strong enough to do it to some extent and even when its gets broke down or shunted east it build back in the same parts in days

Grrr. This just ticks me off .

Here's some other notable super el nino seasons just for comparison. Shockingly 1997 and 2015 have had more activity and ACE up until this point than 2026 has so far. Though notably both did have a major hurricane with Erika in 1997 and Joaquin in 2015 in September.

EWR currently in 4th place all time wettest months of August 2026: 10.16 Rank Year August Rainfall 1 2011 18.79" 2 1955 11.84" 3 1971 10.63" 4 1942 8.46" 5 2003 8.21" 6 1990 7.71" 7 2007 7.32" 8 1978 7.30" 9 2021 7.19" 10 1974 7.17" 11 1989 7.03" 12 1959 6.94"

shouldn't be a surprise to anyone-another year without a US hit coming unless there's homebrew at some point

not looking forward to heat/humidity, but nightly storm chances from an active LLJ are very welcome

Goin to be Interesting to say the least. https://fortune.com/2026/05/12/lake-tahoe-data-center-49000-residents-power-source/

When is it going to be our turn?

Assume all will be negative north and east of HFD

Guess the good news is its not July,August otherwise a ridge is setiing in the next couple days and probably should be a fixture the next several days

What's even more interesting about how hostile this season has been is that what does develop barely lasts for more than a day. Arthur, Christobal and Dolly all lasted a single day. What does make it through the grinder can barely even last if it does form.

With not even an average hurricane season to distract us…You could theoretically walk across the ITCZ right now without even encountering a cloud

Well the structure of the pattern is a bit different this go around with the core of the ridging a bit farther north and east so this bodes well for NY into New England. There will be lots of details to iron out too. For example, there will be a weak stationary front within the region which will be the boundary between unseasonably warm/humid weather versus cooler and less humid. This will be critical because this will establish the instability gradient. Secondly, the real big question is EML advection and can we maintain an EML into the region.

Oh i could never be a politician. I’m too honest for that

1.30" total

No reason to break the summer pattern. Those two zones locked in , in May and has been relentless with each front

Oh, phew...

Some of the maples here in town showing a little color, but that is mainly due to drought stress. Colors may be less robust unless we get good rains coming up.

warm and rainy

Well, at least 2023 snowed in vermont. 2015 was an utter shut out. Not an accumulating flake even at elevation, and repeated washouts. I'm already mentally prepared for the skiing in northern VT to be garbage this december but there are certainly levels of garbage.

Looks like High Pressure building in late next week behind the passage of the front late Wednesday which would bode well for a dry weekend

Labor Day pm a lock to be hot and humid. Summer going out with a bang!! Looking forward to the juiced up storm opportunities too!