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6z NAM at 84hr is much flatter than the 0z GFS at 90hr

Watch this... 20"+ Jan 11-12th, 2011 Feb 8-9th, 2013 That's it 16"+ Feb 5th, 2001 Mar 4-6th, 2001 Feb 16-17th, 2003 Feb 1-3rd, 2021 And the two above, that's it Isn't that wild the difference, Taunton is like the snow capital of big ones compared to here. And we probably average the same amount of snow in a season, or close to it.

He is just so much an uber snow weenie, probably the biggest one I have ever met, esp. in attitude and mood (up and down so much, depending on the pattern). I worked w/ him at WSI for a number of years, so I saw the entire gamut/range what it takes to be a snow weenie. We went back are forth on events so often. And even 10 years ago, he was still king of the number of posts on AmericanWx, and I used to say "where do you get the time???" And he would say, "a lot of the them on are other subforums like in sports" "Yea, right!, I would say!

My first thought is you might have a thing for CoastalWx

Euro finally shows a little love.

@LibertyBell You good buddy? Miss ya this winter. You always had some interesting thoughts and questions, hope you’re well!

I haven't followed the entire thread, so they may be content here already mentioned. This is a very complex forecast, and among the weirdest ones I can recall, or should I say challenging. This could be an odd duck event (CoastalWx immediately thinks of March 7-8, 2013)! It's not often you have two strong s/w troughs so close together in the East vying for "who wins!" And the eventual sensible wx outcome in terms of snowfall DCA-BOS may be something that is not apparent until it actually occurs, w/ some areas doing well and some areas not so well. CoastalWx will immediately go, "great, just another chance I get STIFFED for snow in Weymouth, just like I have been a lot this year!" In the broad pix across NAMR, it looks quite good. But as usual, it's all in the details. First, the good: 1) Mean trough position is solid in the E w/ axis good for a "CoastalWx Special." 2) Great amplified ridge western U.S. 3) A thing the earlier runs did not have is upstream ridging/blocking in the NATL. Now it does. It's not a strong block, but decent height anomalies are there. Downstream is just as important as upstream aloft! 4) 00z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET all show a quite strong closed 500 low well S either over the Carolinas or southern Mid-Atl. Something like that crossing the coast should result in decent sfc cyclogenesis. The UKMET makes the low go sharply negative, while the GFS/ECMWF keep it more neutral tilt. Now for the "problems": 1) The upstream kicker *right* behind it. Not good. And you can see on the 00z ECMWF 120 to 132, how strongly the kicker 500 trough deepens (120 and 132 hr ECMWF 500 attached). This messes w/ the lead 500 trough and starts to dampen it. This is not how KU snowstorms occur. 2) I don't like the moderately strong closed 500 low over central Quebec. It limits the s/w ridging ahead of the lead 500 trough. This should be over Hudson's Bay for the best weenie event. 3) The western U.S. ridge axis is a bit too far W for my liking, so the wavelengths broader than ideal. So you see, a truly complex forecast, much higher than usual for sensible wx specifics! Some musings/caveats: 1) Will the kicker trough try to "dumbbell" the lead trough and its sfc low more N? 2) The intense 500 low crossing the coast before it starts to dampen, how fast will the cyclogenesis be? How long will it stay tight/consolidated before elongation, if at all? 3) Just b/c 500 feature dampens, does not mean below that weakens much or at all. You can have a beast of a 850 and sfc low and not much more than a "dent" at 500 (Feb 1983 KU storm comes to mind). 4) Snowfall gaps or spotty. Look at 00z GFS, decent snow over the Mid-Atl, then a big gap PHL-NYC, and eastern New England does half-decent. GFS snowfall has the same idea and the UKMET to a lesser extent. Not the "smooth" snow event CoastalWx has been looking for (if Cape Cod gets crushed and Weymouth screwed - I can hear, "I'M DONE!!!" And so many on social media are acting like, "THIS IS IT, the BIG one!" just salivating over the 500 height anomalies colors (color table chosen make all the difference!), and saying something like, "something GOTTA happen w/ such wild anomalies like this! Big ridge in the W and intense trough in the East, good enough for me!" and just run w/ "end of days" hype. Well, we don't live at 500 mb, and just b/c the 500 looks great, does *not* mean the sfc is great. And they fail to see the finer details of the pattern I mentioned above that can totally ruin things.

I bet this is what has gone though CoastalWx's mind already!

Shit was literally down to the 950s at our latitude lol

I was leaving work in Union the day it hit and it was one of my sketchiest Parkway rides in 15 years. Was a ghost town, which is rare even in snow events. Was in a 2010 F150 and probably averaged 25-30mph the whole way, I remember visibility at times was dreadful. We got about 18 inches down my ways, and some spots near me according to snow maps maxed around 20-21. Was pretty close to a proper regional HECS, just needed some tweaks. Feel similarly about 1/29/22, few shifts away from a HECS - that thing was a monster.

Yep. Besides a few rogue runs of the operational GFS every model and ensembles want nothing to do with this. Maybe we see a light-mod event, maybe, but if you're looking for a consolidated full blown nor'easter from this, you'll have to keep looking.

Imagine if we had a semblance of blocking with that storm

I still can't believe Central Park only got 10 inches out of that storm.

Jan 2018?

If it verifies then the futility thread will go dormant.

Some signs of a 50/50 low getting organized on the 384hr GEFS

When is the last time we had a snowstorm in NYC Metro with the MJO in Phase 6 ? As of tonight have to go with the best model the Euro Solution with the key players in the wrong positions which equals just about nothing here.

Shoot...since storm 1 seems to have limited moisture potential, if it can't get us at least a modest 3-6", I'd rather that fizzle to leave room for storm 2, tbh

Not that anyone cares but the models sucked with this storm. The Euro, HRRR, and NAM from last night had 0.50 to 0.85 for most of CT and instead it was only a couple tenths. GFS actually did the best as it was much drier.

Nah pd2 combined with feb 2010. PD 1 was a sharper trough and less gulf inflow.

stop posting on this forum. hooray!

If that Jan 25 storm happened as depicted …I literally would I don’t know what id do

The EPS also improved vs 12z.

First 10 days. Must be some hits from threat 2 in here.

Its not so much that it loses it, it's that the low is further north than the GFS so the precip is too. It did move more to the south and west vs 12z with the slight step towards the GFS.