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mm actually, resonance - which persistence is ... regardless of causality - can also be a feedback/positively reinforced by the CC. Resonance then gives rise to synergy - outcome more than than sum of moving parts..etc. Exceeding is still causally linked if that's the case. Longer diatribe: CC is speeding up the basal velocities of global gradient latitudes. This is so because ... even though the polar regions are warming faster than the tropics during the last 20 .. 30 years, the cooling seasons still impose a net +d(G). In practical terms, that means the cold side of the jet stream latitudes, are more extreme than the warm sides. That increases the thermal wind vector, which is balanced by the Coriolis parameter, and viola! there is higher wind in the gradient latitudes than 50 years ago. This is measured/empirically shown. Not only by atmospheric physics ..but in every day usage, this is why most air-land speed records have been set ( airline traffic) in the last 20 years, for traveling west to east...etc. This increased velocity is going to alter the pattern footprints, because velocity of the medium is in the wave physical equations. It's just not mathematically avoidable. Predicting precisely how is a HUGE problem. For one, in the summers ... there are these resonances that set up and create these synergistic heat domes and regions end up blazing hotter than the modeling suggested they really would- just one example. Much to the counter-intuitive bemusement of the common person, these particularly deep, gelid visits by SPVs to mid latitudes are actually causally linked to this just the same. It's not just heat in the summers... Not only that, it's effecting the transition seasons, too, with larger than normal variance in in temperature anomalies during seasons that inherently come with bigger transition differentials ('transition seasons') CC does change the circulation behavior at planetary scales. It's probably era- Transitional during the era of CC. If CC continues unabated... speculation but the poles will warm to the point where the gradient stops being so steep in the ambient winter hemisphere, the the gradient latitudes will then slow again. 70 ..120 years. Or sooner. How may 2023 burst in global temperatures are in the future, and when? The fact that 2023 happened with 0 leading predictions, is pretty damming to the climate forecast community. I mean ... not casting doubt or blame or shade for the their efforts, but the bottom line is ... no one saw that coming. And, that pertinently rattles confidences and makes one wonder if these going to happen again. If so ...the future CC curve is not linear. Which is kind of duh in a philosophical approach anyway, because the last 20 .. 30 years have graphically shown that this hasn't been linear, anyway. It comes down to acceleration - what is that rate going to be. But I'm digressing...

Your memory is impeccable, especially for smaller events and their dates. Of course that was just before the mid-Atlantic went full Day After Tomorrow.

The past four winters have been so bad, especially for those in the urban areas and coastal plain of this forum, people forgot what winter is supposed to to look and feel like. December was a solid A- here in Orange County. 17 inches of snow and temperatures 3 degrees below the now inflated 1991-2020 30 year average. Gangbusters is a little strong.

There’s not lot of evidence we’re going to stay near normal at least for the 1/7-1/11 period. People can quibble on the magnitude of the warmth but it’s going to be AN. After that is a little dicier. There’s a big shift going on in the PAC. Looks like PV tries to get reestablished near Hudson Bay which would be a return to a colder pattern. The question is how quickly that happens. Could be in place by 1/12-13 or it could wait a week. Or something different could pop up on guidance. Seems to be pretty good consensus right now though on ensemble guidance.

I feel like the 6z AIFS Euro (which just ran) is a pretty good representation of the 0z EURO and GEPS. Temps under that gradually cool to seasonal or BN. It is again worth noting that seasonal temps can get the job done from mid-Jan to mid-Feb, provided that timing is works (meaning not warm-up and rain). But give me that setup - all day long. EPO ridge, AN heights over Greenland and AO regions, trough north(or east of Hawaii), split flow. Trends over the next 2-3 days will be important. For now, decent chance at a good pattern in the aforementioned timeframe.

Just scored a pair of ski boots for 75% off! 2024 Atomic Hawx 130s. New. $240!

NAM crushed this from a few days ago. Those soundings on the NAM for the Cape were pretty sweet

I cannot think of a time for a weather event during the entire calendar year that more people would be likely to miss than 5:30 AM on New Year's Day.

3.0” on the nose here on the shoreline. Nice little overachiever to ring in the new year!

Absolutely..gotta be 1/8-1/4th visibility with Heavy Snow. Best rates I've seen since at least 1/22.

1/1: 0.1" 3.5" season total

All about the clout. Guaranteed, 100%, come mid-late January they completely change their February forecast to very cold and very snowy from the Midwest/Lakes to the east coast. No doubt in my mind. They need the subscription money to keep coming in. They’re in too deep now. They’ve turned into a franchise that’s all about the like clicks, subscription money, views, follows and retweets like a few others are. It’s a shame…..

It’s just strange to see Dendy on board Popes torch train of 50’s He usually sides to the the cooler side . The way this fall and winter have gone when guidance tries to go hot .. would be kind of foolish to think this won’t mute somewhat

I think the ULL trough ended up just a bit deeper in the end allowing southern areas to tap into a bit more moisture. Nice event overall. Glad it panned out.

I hate the monkey wrench that the MJO seems to be each year. I subscribe to the notion it's not a matter of if, but when the -EPO/+TNH takes its hold over the conus pattern. BAM teased January 2014 in a recent Tweet. My initial reaction...slow your roll. 'TIs a dangerous analog to casually reference. Best case scenario, I suspect January 2026 could be a poor man's version of that month. I have window size concerns once the cold arrives but can't complain about the timing.

sugar coating on a great holiday season weatherwise and it was great to have the early wintery feel for December. Not much snow OTG here in lanco, but many norther westers have enjoyed it since Turkey day (not quite entire time, but most of it anyway)Jan thaw next week but Winter looms beyond. Here's to health and happiness in 2026.

I believe the upcoming pattern could be characterized as a “January Thaw”. Not necessarily a bad sign for the rest of winter if we have one. The disappointment is amplified by the fact that we haven’t cashed din as much as we would like with the colder pattern in place, but it’s not unusual for a relaxation in the pattern to move in during January.

Prob been since 1/28/10 since we had overperforming squalls this good down in SNE. That event was better in western and central areas whereas the squalls this time overperformed in east and southeast areas.

I mean its been BN temp wise and basically normal snow wise. But after last several winters its great. this hasnt been gangbusters tho

Now, I do think the following is possible. We have seen it show up on modeling but without overall consistency ->The cold shot around the 12-13th rolls into the Plains and hangs up over the East. It could hang up over the Ohio river valley, the Tenn River valley, the Apps, or even the East coast. If/when it does, an over-running event seems plausible. Beware the cutoff low over the Southwest. They are tricky, tricky critters. On rare occasions, they will simply set-up shop per the deterministic GFS, spin for days, and just burn out. But IMHO, they kick out about 90% of the time. If it were to set up shop there, when it kicks...the trough should still come into the East. Pay me now or pay me later. The good thing I can see on modeling this morning is the EPO ridge is present. That has not changed. When it reaches into Point Barrow, a cutoff OR split flow could develop underneath it. I suspect we eventually see both - a cutoff/bowling ball and split flow. Details twelve days out are going to be sketchy. So, I started looking at individual 6z GEFS ensemble members - it is the ensemble of the worst case deterministic scenario. I am not done yet sifting through the other ensembles. The 6z GEFS is not as warm as I thought it would be. I scroll right on down to Jan13...and then 14th. Remember, those are BN temps during our coldest climatology. A good number of those troughs stall. That tells me the risk for over-running is very high. If I was sitting in middle and western Tenn...I would want to keep an eye on this, even E TN. I can't get individual 500 height panels for the US, so I resort to looking at the temp maps above. Below is the 500 mean map for the hour above. The individual members tell a different story. Many of them must have kicked the trough eastward as the SER is squashed on roughly 2/3 depending on your definition of "squashed." Many of those cold fronts stall somewhere over the East. Knowing that SW bias is possibly in play, we take that 500 map and run with it. The EPO ridge has blocking over the top. Below is the 12z trend map for Jan 12. It looks like that for the rest of the run which implies the ensemble is correcting eastward with the trough.

21F squall total .75”

Unforgettable event. 3/4"

And the sun is out, just like that

We managed a very solid, wintry month. January ain't looking too great but who knows how it'll turn out Models change on a dime with how volatile the pattern is

Eventually that’ll lose out. Perpetual warmth or cold in our region is very hard to accomplish. At least it’s not days and days of 50+ and it is on the front end of a cold reload.