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How late in the day should do we see the rain clear out?

Rain will arrive tonight. A general 1.00"-2.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts in excess of 3.00" appears likely. Clouds will break tomorrow with the mercury rising into the upper 70s. However, the coolest air mass so far this season will then push into the region to begin the work week. Highs Monday through Wednesday will reach the lower and middle 70s. New York City will see lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As a result, Central Park will experience its first reading below 60° this season. the timing matches well with the last two El Niño events: 2015-2016: September 14 and 2023-2024: September 15. Wednesday through Friday will see temperatures recover mainly to the upper 70s. However, additional cool air will likely arrive some time during the next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. The SOI was -29.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.761 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.2° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Upton going all in 3-5 locally 7” . Fully expecting scattered showers now

Yup. Wife and I took the dogs for a walk like 40 minutes ago and we both were saying how nice it felt out.

Was gunna say. Been overcast since around 330pm. Nice breeze too.

2015-16 wasn’t that bad for snow in southeastern areas…actually kind of impressive considering a near complete shutout in December that season

Been overcast here in NJ for a bit now

Gotta go back to early June when temps dropped this low. Gorgeous day. 10/10. Autumn is here and it’s glorious.

is that ridge south of the aleutians a nino pattern?

already pretty neutral looking, we'll almost certainly have a positve PDO by November/December. We also got a pretty good pacific pattern the last two winters even with Nina/-PDO

It would really be something if we were completely shut out from this event.

I also like the look of the northward moving stuff over southern VA. Hope it holds together for later. It would be real nice if Sept cooperates so that the last two months of summer were above average rainfall

lol

I wonder if the Susquehanna Valley will get any good storms tonight?

No problem, I don't like to step on other people's toes either. But it happens.

September 10 is average date by which the Triad reaches 90 degrees. Next week, has two or three chances to reach 90 before it looks like the end of this year’s hot weather.

WPC keeps the slight risk of heavy rain along 95. Meanwhile the 19z hrrr gives me 0.00”. Not even a T.

0.28" Feels like mid-July, not mid September. High of 86 at 1pm, low of 73 at 3:53am.

First rain in over a week. It’s been raining since 1:00 at my house, adding up to 0.95”. Thank you God.

Yea, it means no arctic source, but the airmass can work in January-Feb.

I still think S coast to SW CT is were the heavy stuff is . Someone gonna get the the Roman Stein relatively speaking