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Whether it's a NIna thing or not. It definitely matches up with what has been happening the past 5 years. As far as areas threatened.

Sorry...catching up overnight shenanigans, but what sticks out to me the most in this cinema above ...the trough bulk spatial positioning is bumping slowly W - as it really should - while noticing, the western ridge component of this total +PNAP flow orientation is wobbling but otherwise transfixed along roughly 110 W. That actually best teleconnects said eastern trough closer to 80W than the Del Marva/off the eastern seaboard during greatest amplitude. Basically... these things don't always come into reality in best fits. But, they due tend to at least shuffle closer to where they should be while doing so. This slow, albeit perhaps crucial bumping W with the trough is suitable.

CFS if I remember correctly was the first to show the warm nose in the last storm. Sent from my SM-S926U1 using Tapatalk

4” of snow this weekend and I’d give the winter an A. 6” and it’s an A+ and best in at least a decade.

Rug pull watch may be warranted later today.

I would not hate on a 6-8” snowfall here Sunday. (Although ratios would be lower than some of the fluff we’ve been getting this winter here)

Hopefully. This weekend is duster event #9 for my area. At about 26-27" on the season. RFD lagging a bit at 23.8"

0.7". Thanks.

If I lived in some place like NYC of Boston, I'd be pretty pissed at that guy for posting something like that. I think 90th percentile means it is higher than 90 percent of all samples in the analog set. Here's what the same analog set has for percentage on sites getting greater then 4". I don't mean this in any way as a dig at you Powell, I just think that guy is farming for clicks from high population center snow weenies.

Even that QPF chart, as is, argues for prolific deformation from like Steve up through my area here in the MRV....crude rule of thumb is right near the QPF gradient, which at this range is only detecting lower level forcing.

I still say this is exactly what I picture for a Niña.

The 06Z NAM is too good to be true. Even a quasi-trowal to help keep snow in Tenn. If that's busts it'll be the biggest NAM job in quite a while. Going high risk 60% hatched of disappointment. Otherwise globals keep light snow and snow showers northeast, Plateau, Mountains, the usual. 12Z and AI commentary will be in a few hours. My NAM cynicism aside, models overnight look OK.

The models didn't trend as sharply as we needed them to last night tbh. This threat is not dead yet, but we're going to really need some dramatic shifts north with where the low closes off and the confluence over New England. I think back to the system in the middle of this month that had the models sending NS energy way south and cutting off over the TN valley. Well it ended up cutting off over the Great Lakes... The models were too "dig" happy. Different setup here with the decaying block pushing everything south, but we'll see

Half of the MBTA trains stopped working that winter. It was a disaster commuting on the train into Boston. I had my office in the seaport that winter. Seaport was prob ground zero though, lol. I remember that one mesoscale event in mid-February (not the 2/15 storm) where there was this very narrow band of snow hugging the coast. Like back bay was sunny I think and when we got to south station, it was almost a whiteout. They had like 3-4” of feathers on the seaport.

Nope

Yeah, agreed. I thought we'd start seeing this tick north by now. We'll see.

Looks like 0.6" here? Do you slightly further N? TIA.

Not a bad forecast considering all of the available data.

Hope it works out better than this one (in all seriousness, that's a pretty reasonable map all things considered)

Thanks, this answers my earlier question

The resolution is probably just too coarse. In a vacuum the upper levels look really good during the weekend…hence the analog storms.

I encountered ice fog last night driving through Florida/warwick area. Current temp at the time was 9. It came out of no where & couldn’t see more than 2 feet in front of me. Impressive

Bottom dropped out. Negative three now in Three Springs.

Somehow i missed your comment lol .