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Started here this weekend, its easier to do it in chunks. We're surrounded by woods so a good blower does 90% of it.

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/dee34050-062a-48f7-9fec-23a384039518

colors are poppin, it's always usually the third week of October for peak here...now comes the clean up...

If we're getting a minor warming soon, the PV will probably restrengthen for December and we'll torch. But after that, we may get another warming in time for some blocking in Jan/Feb. That would be our window if it pans out.

Hearing of an early season potential PV elongation. any support other than one model for this idea?

Why do they never forecast BN in the northeast. I know it’s a bad bet most years but is this the only reason?

Well yes obviously. Many places in the metro have already had a freeze.

That would be your opinion, and an incorrect one. I could enumerate the many facts that I have posted the past few days, which have *not* been refuted, but it wouldn't matter, since you ignore it all in your blindness and obstinance.

Some convergence from the guidance on a very early PV disruption this season, being driven by an absurd Urals-Scandanavian block. I'm taking this for the gift that it probably is for predictive skill: Seasons that have an early significant PV disruption like this usually have a second. Second, the westerly QBO has a tendency towards more a stable PV. So a vortex recovery into Dec with extreme warmth, then prob a mid-late season PV disruption again to round out the end of winter before flipping extremely warm again.

Weather Sentinel "Big developments are beginning to emerge in the northern hemisphere. It appears as if we may be looking at a weakening of the polar vortex. This is a very anomalous situation as most El Niño winters do not feature this kind of event. This would literally throw a monkey wrench into the seasonal forecasts . This anticipated stretching and weakening of the polar vortex is exactly what happened last winter . Combining a weak vortex or an out right splitting of the vortex with this El Niño could trigger catastrophic winter storms over the Northeast . Personally I’m not super surprised this is occurring or may occur. One of my analog seasons was the 2009/10 one . This was because of a El Niño coupled with a negative phased Atlantic oriented ocean . I also believe the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation is playing into this and maybe the actual cause of this vortex stretching out and weakening. No two El Ninos are ever alike . Even the 82/83 and 97/98 were different from each other . So how will this change the winter ? Number one is the anticipated moisture flow could be affected and be colder despite the warm Pacific air getting sucked into the US . More likely than not this could be a very volatile situation and may spawn some nasty severe weather over the south east not to mention snow in the north. Another developing situation is the Siberian snow pack . It is progressing at a pace not seen since 2015 and is more on par with 2009 by all accounts. This snow pack is also anticipated to grow exponentially in the next few weeks. This matters as this region is the source of most of the cold air that eventually makes its way into the US in winter . More snow cover equals more cold . If you like snow then the stars may be aligning for a big season this year. This could very well range from west to east . More than anything it looks volatile. I think this may lead to more snow getting into the I-95 corridor and possibly further south . At this stage I believe the Mid Atlantic will be the bullseye. I will be updating this information as it becomes available."

the three times I had to go to PHX for work there was some weird weather phenomena...one flash flooding storm, actually made the salt river flow violent for a couple days, a heat wave in July 125+ during the day but the 95+ night wind was worse, and a crazy sand storm I saw coming from south mountain across sky harbor, don't like PHX but Tempe and Mesa were cool. Tempe especially because ASU campus is all around with a plethora of establishments to check out.

Heat Island effect - most areas away from the city will experience < 32 well before NYC

Stop trolling Its annoying

Torch !

The latest first freeze for LGA which is the UHI capital was 1-4-16. NYC snuck one in on 11-24-15. The average first freeze for LGA since then has been 11-30 and NYC 11-20. Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2015 03-29 (2015) 27 01-04 (2016) 15 280 2001 03-28 (2001) 31 12-23 (2001) 32 269 1998 03-22 (1998) 31 12-22 (1998) 24 274 2021 04-02 (2021) 29 12-19 (2021) 31 260 Data for November 24, 2015 through November 24, 2015 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 37 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 35 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 33 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 32 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 31 Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 03-01 (2020) 11-08 (2019) 226 Mean 03-25 11-30 249 Maximum 04-06 (2016) 01-04 (2016) 281 2025 03-23 (2025) 32 12-04 (2025) 25 255 2024 03-24 (2024) 32 11-30 (2024) 32 250 2023 03-30 (2023) 32 11-25 (2023) 32 239 2022 03-30 (2022) 30 11-19 (2022) 32 233 2021 04-02 (2021) 29 12-19 (2021) 31 260 2020 03-01 (2020) 26 12-08 (2020) 32 281 2019 03-13 (2019) 32 11-08 (2019) 31 239 2018 04-02 (2018) 32 11-15 (2018) 30 226 2017 03-23 (2017) 26 11-10 (2017) 27 231 2016 04-06 (2016) 32 12-09 (2016) 32 246 2015 03-29 (2015) 27 01-04 (2016) 15 280 Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 03-01 (2020) 10-31 (2020) 218 Mean 03-28 11-20 236 Maximum 04-10 (2016) 12-09 (2016) 250 2025 04-09 (2025) 31 11-29 (2025) 32 233 2024 03-24 (2024) 31 11-30 (2024) 30 250 2023 03-30 (2023) 31 11-25 (2023) 30 239 2022 03-30 (2022) 29 11-19 (2022) 31 233 2021 04-03 (2021) 32 11-23 (2021) 32 233 2020 03-01 (2020) 25 10-31 (2020) 32 243 2019 03-18 (2019) 32 11-08 (2019) 29 234 2018 04-09 (2018) 32 11-14 (2018) 32 218 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242 2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236

If I’m remembering correctly, we had a super El Niño during the winter of 2015–2016. That November brought an unusually cold outbreak, with highs in the teens around midmonth, before a more typical El Niño pattern took hold for the rest of winter. With a recurving typhoon, Ural blocking, a weakening polar vortex, and other factors potentially lining up, I’m wondering whether we could see a similar November this year. Thoughts or rebuttals?

Max 64.1° What a beaut. Hopefully a few days like this every month until spring.

12z Euro looks great through early Novie

google it - its not made up AI Overview A polar vortex stretching event occurs when the large, circular ring of freezing stratospheric air above the North Pole loses its tight shape, elongating or warping into an oval or multi-lobed form. [1, 2]

Hopefully we get a nice late Fall threat, otherwise May isn't too terribly far off

Not to be weird but I wish you could enjoy it too!