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Ha some decent rains and thunder WoR again last night. Good soaking here last evening and overnight.

3.2" storm total in the Holyoke Highlands so far. Mostly fairly slow steady rain, with a couple good downpours to check out the gutters and sewer backflow valve..

Since Dolphin has already peaked twice and another ERC imminent it seems, the storm will continue to expand in size overall, and it may undergo another ERC. All along, it is slowly gaining latitude. What this means is that despite the very low pressures shown once it gets to the RODN and ZSSS area, the storm will almost certainly expanded even more w/ a very large eye. The ECMWF shows this well. Take a look at its 222 hr (yes, I know this is way out, but model agreement is excellent as to the large-scale pattern as to Dolphin's track). The eye is about 120 nm in diameter! This is not unreasonable and has happened many times for long-tracked TC in the NWPAC. STY Winnie in 1997 is among the most classic examples. It had a 200 nm eye when it approached China! See attachments. The point being once a TC has maxed out in the deep tropics, it is very difficult for it to attain that same kind of intense status again b/c 1) ERCs expand the storm progressively, and 2) as you gain latitude, Coriolis increases which results in a decrease in max tangential wind speeds and acts to expand the TC. So the TC often has the same net energy as a Cat 5, but it is much more spread out, so winds may only be Cat 3. Also, Dolphin may become an annular hurricane, which is a stable status where the eye is quite large, and there is almost no banding. It looks like a truck tire w/ stark symmetry. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_tropical_cyclone TC Winnie 1997 https://x.com/WxPatel/status/1416591836504862720

Thanks. It has to be rare.

Tornadic waterspout is the answer: A tornadic waterspout is a true tornado that forms over water or moves from land to water. It develops downward from a severe thunderstorm, bringing high winds, large hail, and lightning. [1, 2, 3]

The supercell started in Richmond, VA. Dropped a tornado on the James river. Could have been anywhere.

"Tornadic waterspouts", also accurately referred to as "tornadoes over water", are formed from mesocyclones in a manner essentially identical to land-based tornadoes in connection with severe thunderstorms, but simply occurring over water.[22] A tornado which travels from land to a body of water would also be considered a tornadic waterspout.[23] Since the vast majority of mesocyclonic thunderstorms in the United States occur in land-locked areas, true tornadic waterspouts are correspondingly rarer than their fair-weather counterparts in that country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waterspout

1.22 today

A lot of Suffolk has between 2 and 3”. Im at 2.35”. Islip airport about the same.

That is literally the most idiotic answer ever. I want an answer from Wakefield NWS and they won't answer either.

Everyone knows that an evening at Red Lobster is no small affair. I press my jeans, put on my finest hair product, and drench myself in a musky cologne. Hell, I may even shine up my wing tipped shoes, for I am going to Red Lobster. I strut through the door with my finest lady on my arm and throw up two fingers to the Hostess. I glide past the lobster tank with ease knowing that yet again I will not be eating a red lobster at Red Lobster (who would). I take a seat and before the waiter asks us for our drinks I request 20 cheddar bay biscuits. It's such a bold move that music stops, glasses clink, and everyone in a 5 yard radius gasps in disbelief/shock. Even my company gives me a look of concern. The waiter says " s..sir are you sure?". I don't sweat one bit and I tell that waiter to step and make with the cbb's. he comes back with three baskets filled with biscuits (7 in 2 and 6 in another). I thank the waiter. Then I go straight baller!!!! I'm pounding biszcuits left and right. Smashing them in old dudes faces, rubbing them between my ladies t*tties, telling the waiter to f*** off. I cause a ruckus, only get cbb's, don't pay a dime, and leave with my girl plus three more.That's generally what happens every time I go to Red Lobster, I've gotten banned from 33 locations. I tell you this to let you know that Cheddar Bay Biscuit shrimp sandwhiches are without a doubt the most ballerest thing a baller could ball at Red Lobster.

Squeaked out an 80/70 this aftrn. Comfortably warm.

Could be trouble in that area in Danbury and points south.

Yeah but not this strong though--it's historic. And potentially east-based. That's the part of it that worries me because to me historically strong=97-98 scenario. If it were anything else like moderate to strong, or modoki (I know that one is rare) I'd certainly like our chances much better. I would relish being be HAPPILY wrong though and will wear all of it while I'm measuring in feet

I think it is counted as a “tornadic waterspout”.

We could get a bunch of 'perfect track' rainstorms. The irony of your negative stance is that a strong El Nino is statistically more likely to give you what you want(and esp places NW) than the recent Nina winters- a KU storm.

That is a legitimate question.