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To me, NYC has a very snowy climate. Then again, my avg annual snow is only 0.2” with most winters getting none. My area hasn’t received a foot of snow for an entire season since 1800. I’ve lived in Atlanta, where their avg is still “only” 2”. So, when I see a city’s average at 20”+, ten+ times as much as ATL and 100+ times as much as SAV, that there is very snowy! Atlanta’s never even gotten close to 20” in a season! Aside: Cloudflare problems have been causing widespread outages this morning, including here.

nice! yeah its a really easy way to spend an hour or two when i should be studying, to waste time. grand forks does seem a little trigger happy on their eastern counties there...

Jeff Beradelli has stated that sudden stratospheric warming will begin today, dropping a polar vortex into the northeast by early next month.

Glad 2005-06 came up. December got nutty cold. Snow blanketed much of the country. Then it got warm. December cold broke around Christmas in KCMO, which was a little disappointing. January thaw was torch. For this year, operational models are of course all over the place. Thanksgiving weekend cold front CF may actually be faster on Thanksgiving rather than the weekend. Then a few milder days are forecast before the next CF. Weekly products the CFS gets cold established for the first week of Dec, fading during the second week of Dec. The ECMWF weekly doesn't seem to acknowledge the Thanksgiving weekend CF but starts the cold west to east trek the first weekend of Dec. Putting it all together, I think the first 1-2 fronts could be brief cold intrusions. Thanksgiving weekend and then middle of the first week or weekend of December. ECMWF weekly struggles to discern the fronts that week. CFS may lock in cold a week early. Perhaps after a couple fronts chip away at the warm pattern, by December 10 give or take a couple weeks can average truly below normal temps. See if we could get that through Christmas for a third week. Siberia table continues to set up.. for after we work through the North America warm week to 10 days. Temperature anomalies, blue is cold Sfc Press anomalies, red is higher

29.8

Low of 23.5 at 6:59 this morning. Just finished my last morning doing my friends farm. Was all layered up but by the time I was finished had peeled off almost all my layers.

Most dramatic cloud action of the winter?

I remember (maybe in the MA forum) talk of the first legit winter storm was in the first week of December. Welp. Fantasy land 6Z has it. Albeit nothing to go crazy over.

Well here's the thing... Globals overall have not held onto the structure of the oncoming short wave into confluence zone in NYS New England so have been depressed. 6z EC topped in favor of the 06-09z RRSFA, RAP, NAM3K and 12z HRRR. I sure hope the 12z/18 HRRR is not that far wrong... it could be too aggressive to the north but I expect a 2-4" stripe somewhere near I80 which would be a little south of the 12z HRRR axis. Uncertainty of course but we have to make decisions on what we do. So potentially embarrassing if it fails but this is what I updated locally. Updating I84 corridor 9AM. Plowing will probably be needed for at least the higher elevations tomorrow morning from northeast PA through nw NJ/se NYS into at least southern CT and possibly Hartford Ashford. Too much short term modeling that is at the leading edge of mesoscale modeling is upping amounts and predicting a decent 5 hour event that will require adjusted traveling times. Entire I84 region from the Poconos across nw NJ, se NYS into ag least the southern two thirds of CT 1AM-9AM Wednesday (tomorrow) morning. A 3-6 hour period of wet snow that likely accumulates 1-4"-especially grass. Valley roads 600 feet or below just wet because of temps just above freezing but accumulations on untreated pavements expected for the hills where the temp will drop to 30, especially 1000 feet or higher. The northern extent of the snow shield is a little uncertain but prepare for slower travel-delays in your early Wednesday morning travel. In my opinion there is an increasing chance of a 2 hour delay for high terrain schools I80 northward. Overall minor impact anticipated except during a period of heavier snow near dawn. The southern extent of snow somewhere between I80 and I78 and it probably will melt on most pavements south of I80. Monitor NWS forecasts and any advisory in their afternoon issuances. I suspect that their forecasts will become more formidable for our second accumulative snowfall of the season...and pavement covering too. I just dont think a 30-40% chc of precipitation covers it for tonight in nw NJ-NYC. Graphics are the NWS 7A snowfall forecast and the 12z HRRR which sort of mirrors the more conservative 06z EC. Click for clarity.

Its not a snowy climate but we do get big snowstorms once in a while.

Low of 24, coldest so far

Sorry lived in FL before 2022. Thus I have not seen first hand evidence that this place can be snowy.

29.5° in Havre de Grace. More interestingly almost everywhere was below freezing for 8+ hours.

0.48" here, on the high end of the model range. Up to 0.90" fell on the northeast edge of the city. It came with some decent lightning/thunder.

low 27

low of 29 in mclean

The HRRR has me in the game though so we'll see what the trends might be today. @BxEngineloves the HRRR...

Cloudburst with cloudflare

Testing weenies

Beer … testing… beer

0.54" overnight/early this morning here.

My primary concern with respect to the first third of the winter season is that I rushed the recovery of the PV due to a dearth of appreciation for just how protracted the relaxation of the zonal winds would be. I went with something falling short of a full reversal, but even if we do see a reversal, I think that is largely immaterial to how the forecast will evolve. Another factor that played into my hasty recovery of the PV is that I operated on the assumption of a reflection event in mid January, which occurs during a stronger PV and entails a hasty recovery from the early season disruption. My guess is that my timing may be off, but I'll have the right idea in the seasonal mean. Reflection event may just be more towards the back end of my range, in latter January or early February. I also wish I had paid more attention to the behavior of the MJO in my primary analog of December 2000, which hit phase 8 mid month. I focused so much on using it as an analog for the disruption of the PV that I totally brain-cramped on the behavior of the MJO. *********************************************************************** Balance of November-December 2025 Outlook December Analogs: 2021, 2017,2008, 2007, 2000, 1981, 1970 Here is how the analog composite fared versus reality for the month of October: And versus current seasonal guidance for November (CFS): The MJO is currently crossing from phase 5 into phase 6, which is triggering the abrupt transition to a much blockier and colder weather pattern that is currently underway. The progress of the wave is then forecast to stagnate as it approaches phase 7 and essentially decays around mid-month. While the cold will moderate for a time, however, the pattern will remain stormier than average, with the first snowfall likely across the higher terrain of northern New England next weekend. High latitude blocking will be consistent as the polar vortex remains weak throughout the balance of November into early December, as the arctic high regime will be prevalent. Arctic High Regime Courtesy Lee et al (2019) Here is the December composite data versus the latest CFS temperature anomaly forecast: Expect this sale style of deviation from the MC forcing during the early portion of the season. December 2017-January 2018: December 2024-January 2025: An official SSW as defined by the reversal of the mean H85mb zonal westerly winds is unlikely, however, there is a low probability of one as suggested both by the minority of guidance, and the December 4, 1981 analog. Should there be a reversal of the H85mb zonal winds, December 4th is a good estimation of the when the PV will reach its weakest point before the split, and subsequent recovery begins. As per the expectation of a significantly weakened vortex resulting from bonafide warming that will fall short of a full zonal wind reversal, the December 2000 event is the preferred analog. This is appropriate since 2000-2001 is also the top analog from the seasonal composite. Accordingly, the polar vortex should have consolidated back to at least something approaching climatological levels prior to Christmas (18th-24th). It will then continue to strengthen with moderating temperatures in the east, per research conducted Lee et al (2019), which indicates that the arctic high regime is favored for less than 20 days following a weak PV. This is also consistent with the onset of a reflection event on December 21,1981, just over two weeks after the December 4th SSW. There is a slight chance of Ku event between the first and 15th of the month. The PNA should average negative during what will be active month, with numerous SWFE and overrunning events commencing by approximately the 10th. The probability for a White Christmas is above climatological levels given the active pattern and at least seasonable cold throughout the first half of the month, but it remains dubious for the coastal plane given the milder turn prior to the holidays. In fact, the proverbial "Grinch Storm" is more likely than not. A Pacific trough should begin to evolve towards the end of the month in conjunction with a rather stout PV, as a mild pattern ensues to ring in 2026. The month of December will average anywhere near normal, anywhere to -1F to +2F, except near normal to +2F across the middle Atlantic.

Weeklies should be taken with a grain of salt but no clue why people are getting worried. Its only November .

Im not seeing any snow

Records: Highs: EWR: 73 (1963) NYC: 73 (1928) LGA: 72 (1953) JFK: 70 (1924) Lows: EWR: 19 (1936) NYC: 18 (1936) LGA: 22 (1959) JFK: 21 (1959) Historical: 1873: A severe storm raged from Georgia to Nova Scotia causing great losses to fishing fleets along the coast. In Maine, the barometric pressure reached 28.49 inches at Portland.Boston, Massachusetts recorded its lowest November pressure of 28.73 inches of mercury. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) (David Ludlum) 1891: Highest barometer reading ever recorded for November 30.85 inches at WBO at that time. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1921: 54 inches of snow and sleet closed the Columbia River Highway around The Dalles, OR area. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1953: The temperature at Minneapolis, MN, reached 71 degrees, their warmest reading of record for so late in the autumn. (The Weather Channel) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1955: An early season cold snap finally came to an end. Helena MT experienced 138 consecutive hours of subzero temperatures, including a reading of 29 below zero, which surpassed by seven degrees their previous record for the month of November. Missoula MT broke their November record by 12 degrees with a reading of 23 below zero, and Salt Lake City, UT smashed their previous November record of zero with a reading of 14 below. Heavy snow in the Great Basin closed Donner Pass, CA, and total crop damage from the cold wave amounted to eleven million dollars. (David Ludlum) 1957: A tornado, 100 yards in width, traveled a nearly "straight as an arrow" 27-mile path from near Rosa, AL to near Albertville, AL, killing three persons. A home in the Susan Moore community in Blount County was picked up and dropped 500 feet away killing one person. (The Weather Channel) 1967: A moist subtropical storm that started on this day ended on the 21st. 14+ inches of precipitation fell in the mountains above Los Angeles, CA, 7.96 inches fell at Los Angeles. Flooding was called the “worst since 1934.” Two people were killed and 400 others were stranded in the mountains due to closed highways.: (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1986: The first of two successive snowstorms struck the northeastern U.S. The storm produced up to 20 inches of snow in southern New Hampshire. Two days later a second storm produced up to 30 inches of snow in northern Maine. (Ref. Storm Data) 1987: It was a windy day across parts of the nation. Gale force winds whipped the Great Lakes Region. Winds gusting to 80 mph in western New York State damaged buildings and flipped over flatbed trailers at Churchville. In Montana, high winds in the Upper Yellowstone Valley gusted to 64 mph at Livingston. Strong Santa Ana winds buffeted the mountains and valleys of southern California. (Ref. The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988: Thunderstorms developing along a warm front drenched Little Rock, AR with 7.01 inches of rain, smashing their previous record for the date of 1.91 inches. (The National Weather Summary) 1989: A second surge of arctic air brought record cold to parts of the north central U.S. Eleven cities in the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date, including Rochester MN with a reading of 4 degrees below zero. Strong winds ushering the arctic air into the north central U.S. produced squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region. Snowfall totals in northern Ohio ranged up to twenty inches in Ashatabula County and Geauga County. (Ref. The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2014: As of the midday hours on Tuesday, an unofficial snowfall measurement of 60 inches has been recorded in the past 24 hours in Lackawanna, New York, just south of Buffalo. However, snowfall of 4 feet or more has been observed in some of the south towns. Depending on the investigation of snowfall measurement activities, and if the intense snow continues through the evening Tuesday, there is a chance the 24-hour United States snowfall record may fall. That official record belongs to Silver Lake, Colorado, with 76 inches, spanning April 14-15, 1921. A report of snowfall of 77 inches in 24 hours at Montague, New York, was thrown out by officials from January 1997 because too many measurements were taken in the 24 hour period. Snowfall measurement of 60 inches just south of Buffalo, NY(Ref.Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist November 18, 2014; 3:59 AM ET) Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 65" (S. Cheektowaga); Lake Ontario 22" (Philadelphia) Duration: 48 hours. The epic November 17-19th 2014 lake effect event will be remembered as one of the most significant winter events in Buffalo’s snowy history. Over 5 feet of snow fell over areas just east of Buffalo, with mere inches a few miles away to the north. There were 14 fatalities with this storm, hundreds of major roof collapses and structural failures, 1000s of stranded motorists, and scattered food and gas shortages due to impassable roads. (Ref.NWS, Buffalo,NY)