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Just feels like a tick south, even minor, is a pretty bad sign when the thing ticking south is the only model that had really been fully in our corner on this one. I’m not expecting an inch personally. Half inch is what my gut says, and that is wavering. Hard to trust something this marginal to come through.

SNE/CT Snowfall totals. All snowfall maps for the 25-26 season are up here.

The superstitious among us may burn him at the stake.

2.3" will do it

I'd like to see more model support then just the cmc before I get on board lol

Definitely. January and the first three weeks of February as well. Best chance right now is looking like February 22nd. Not the morning, but the afternoon. After that, with the sun angle there's no chance anyway.

They should hire Tomlin and become the most popular school In Pittsburgh.

Snowfall totals from yesterdays storm. You can find all events from the 25-26 season here, this is the first one i've done for tri-state.

A considerably stronger and closer low would not harm us this time

At this rate I should’ve stayed in NC

12z EPS is a shift south

got the same and was able to enter my 1st event couple weeks ago, but doesn't work now.

I don't know nothing about anything, but I think a Nina transitioning to a Nada is a worst-case scenario for us.

The last high ran well east too far and fast so don’t know why this would plunge south. We don’t get many good high pressures centered on the MD line

Yeah euro has some opportunities

SOI has been tanking since NOV 23. Only one day of substantial + since then.

If folks wanna muse... check out that 00z CrazyForecastSystem model known as the CFS. There's a high impact coast for the 11th/12th, which is really in all honesty the same 10th/11th period we've been toying with - at this range, even the shitty models will shuffle within spatial-temporal reasonability. Anyway, the Euro has it too but all these guidance types are highly mutable at this range ...goes without sayin'

Total rainfall here was 1.21" ending as a brief period of non-accumulating light snow after midnight. The difference between the 4" gage and the ambient was significant; 1.21" in the bucket vs 1.51" with the Ambient. 1.21" stands. If it had been all snow, that would have been some nasty wet slop

Yes, models have been terrible. Don't anyone try to convince me otherwise. Is it just me or does model performance seem to tank during winter months almost every year?

I do what I want... Nah, @bristolri_wx DM'd me a link to a submission form that looks something like this. I simply filled it out and submitted it.

Euro has a little clipper overnight 12/9-10. Bigger looking clipper for 12/11…that one almost morphs into a SWFE. There’s stuff to watch at least.

Can’t get anything to go negative tilt when we need it to. Prob related to a lack of blocking which im assuming is at least partially due to an overactive northern stream. I need to do more research on indices…others here have way more knowledge on that.

Paul Roundy said it, dude is a genius so I am not bold enough to argue! But you're a pretty sharp cookie yourself Don, you're allowed, lol. Good post!

Yep. 2.7” here. BTV was spot on for us. Now we wait for the Arctic front. Would be fun to get below zero.