All Activity

48 / 27 36 hour chillier stretch before an overall warmer than normal period with sprinklings of strong warmth early next week 13-15th. Drier week ahead with <0.50 over the next week.

huh... Ironic. The PV's showing signs of finally shifting away from 90/60 in these ensemble means toward mid month.

i dunno man, this March (37.0) was much cooler than last March (38.1). will be interesting to see the temp comparison after April

To jbenedet's point ... the operational runs are coherently weaving a warmer tapestry out there beyond this thing. Thursday through the weekend... The cold air intrusion now thru Wednesday alleviates during Thursday. It's not going to wildly surge the other way, but 540 to 552dm hydrostats in a return WSW continental flow and ample post equinoxian sun ... will likely present modestly above normal. The next cold front after doesn't carry nearly the same bite/post cold weight as depicted.

Wake county got screwed, sounds familiar. Eastern NC especially east of 95 got a widespread 1-2” rain and we couldn’t even get enough to wet the dirt

I makes me wonder what the world is capable of delivering around here, if/when the pattern foot actually did flip warm.

Yeah, I'm just open speculating/making conjecture on the BD frequency aspect in that morning joe From a "personal" anecdotal perspective, I've observed more than is normal even for here? Relative to date that is. If we were to do the last 10 days the rest of the way, we'll have clocked 3 to 4 times the normal seasonal loading by June 1. That's a lot ha! I don't disagree about the March numbers though. I snuck in a few edits into that post ... one of which was the jest that (CC + the increasing solar)/2 is skewing matters. These latter factors are creating tension in perspectives over the years, because the patterns are cold typology but we still get nuisance warm anomalies. interesting.

Despite a little chill in the air thru Wednesday, this is setting up to be a stellar week. Perhaps the next 7-10 days.

Low of 38 with .42" of rain. Mondays, they are the worst.

These next three days are the last of the chilly. After Wednesday, it looks mild to very warm at times and above normal

I dunno Tip. These doors happen with such regularity because without them our spring climo in the seacoast region would be like Philly otherwise….it really is just that. We have a three day BN interlude and then it’s back to solidly AN. March finished +4 If April matches—which looks doable given the persistence and latest ensemble guidance— this early spring will much better than last, or any of recent memory…

I would like to see the ONI coupled at around 1.7 or lower, and I bet we would see a better winter independent of the Modoki index.

Yeah just a dusting here too, but back to white. A reminder that I guess it’s not as far away as it feels.

We've had decent springs once in a while over the decades but those are more the exception to the rule. As climate and data empirically show, we more typically suffer these ~ 6-week purgatories between the end of March and early May ... give or take. Some are cold and "that one last chance to snow", along with a bit of questionable perspectives on reality hold outs ... heh, notwithstanding. For those that long for warmth and covet those visions, this year seems particularly annoying so far. What is happening(ed) is a very persistent PV, wobbling around 80..90W/60N up in Canada. So long as that is the case there is going to be an anomalous polar jet around the southern periphery. Having jet streams fixated across S and SE Canada in the means are going to create problems for us to ever warm up prior to June 15 really ... for a much longer discussion of reasons. Just in the past 6 days ...we've observed like 3 different species of BD fronts. N doors, E doors, quasi BDs whose identity lost in a normal door... We may be carrying a positive anomaly in BD even for our spring lorn region, but it's because we have a multi-month ridiculously resonant pattern more typically observed in an average January. If you took the typical January pattern foot, and mapped (CC+ SOLAR seasonal change)/2 over top, you get what we are getting.

It makes perfect sense to me that if the essence of El Nino is anonymously warm water modulating the Hadley Cell via enhanced convective activity, then warming up the water to the west of ENSO is going to reduce it's ability to do so because the MC is going to rob the ENSO region of some of that convection....ie it's a competing force.

I keep having to remind myself it's just the first week of April... It's just a slog, this time of year.

Whopping 0.02" and not a drop in the forecast. Sprinkler's a comin'.

I am willing to bet that if we were to ditch the gap between the RONI and ONI, or even have the ONI lag the RONI, we would get lower heights in the southeast....my guess is in order achieve that we are going continue to have to see that western Pac warmth spread eastward, which would help to reduce that persistent, residual cool ENSO residue. Again, don't mistake me overvaluing the RONI in-and-of-itself....it's what it represents, which is the surplus of western Pacific warmth relative to the eastern Pacific reducing the ability of +ENSO to couple with the atmosphere, and thus modulate the northern Pacific in the manner that we would like.

Had a low of 35 degrees this morning.

I was wondering about that...how do we trust such aged data...that said, I am not going to contest the fact that ambient heights were lower back then.

2015 having a weaker se trough relative to 1997 is entirely consistent with what I am proposing, since the RONI lagged the ONI in 2025, and it did not in 1997. I made the same mistake in 2015 that I did in 2023 in mistaking the warmer west Pacific for more of a Modoki signal. I will not do that again.

A few flurries here. 36°

Chris, I’m curious. How is it possible to come up with even approximate geopotential hts for way back in 1877-8?

Got just over 2.5 inches with the rain Friday morning included. Had a low of 39 this morning

Yeah, I guess I didn't pay attention because I was not expecting that. Only a dusting at my place but nothing here at the office in Waterbury.