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Drought severity expanded in NJ and other regions. Not a shock since all we had was a snow shower and some freezing drizzle in the past 2+ weeks. A warm March would be very bad unless preceeded by rainy weather. Snowpack melt helps a bit but won't be enough.

I wouldn't care if we had gotten some snow on top of the glacier, but most of that cold was wasted, other than keeping snow/ice cover otg for an extended period. At least our dry streak continues lol.

Might explain why the mean is 2"+ over a large area, but reduced from 0z by 1/2" generally.

The same euro has the warmup canceled out by another cold shot a week later.

31 currently. And I think I am going to start rating these cold snaps in bags of bird food. Currently on my 3rd bag since the snow back in January. While it is mainly to feed the birds in the winter it is also cable for our cats. Between suet cakes and the feeder and spreading seed on the snow covered deck they have had a steady stream of action. Even getting the squirrels up which prompts quite the frenzy at the back door.

The winter carnival is underway here and it’s a great time for it. Over 7” of powder the last few days. Torchlight skiing on tap tonight. Still snowing. The ice palace is quite nice.

If you keep saying that's all she wrote for winter, eventually you'll be right because that's the nature of the seasons. However, just want to point out you were saying winter was cooked in January before our coldest stretch in 10 years... definitive statements in long range forecasting is fools errand.

This event was meh.

A better representation of the SE US to minimize the warming effects of UHI as well as warming from increased traffic on airport runways (big problem at ATL for example) would be to use a rural station like the far N GA small town of Blairsville, GA, which has a pretty long record (back to 1931): Per my counting (hoping I didn’t miscount…if I did it should be only minimally off): Since 2020 including ties, it has had 24 different days with record highs and 7 days with record lows. Since 2010, 65 with highs and 25 with lows Since 2000: 87 with highs and 42 with lows Daily records from here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ffc

Dropped to a surprising 29 this morning.

The coldest is definitely behind us but cold enough to snow at the end of the month-hopefully and get it to time up with some moisture. We need some luck since we’re back to the garbage hostile Pacific pattern of the last few winters.

I am kind of due to pillage you for a few years....you have been killing me during these lean years and we are usually similar.

Correct. That is not arctic cold

-Like 1 in a thousand? -More like... 1 in a million. ineedsnow:

Weather channel hasn’t gotten the memo, it has DC at 50 on the 19th.

0z had none

You’re a solid 8”-10” ahead of me now. But I think that sort of what you thought in your long range, right?

Wish folks had more respect for the index methodology - it's correct the vast majority of times...not sure why or if there is reticence to either understand it, or implement ... but Monday was never signaled from that source and I painstakingly applied that logic and analytic content to the discussion over the last week... It's also this group frankly. In the face of presumptive/prohibitive limitation that is there, in place, the model run at hand that defies those mitigations with some cinema gets immediately pimped out. Meanwhile the situation was never changed.. Oh well.

Are boobie lows considered “weather porn”? Inquiring minds and all that

Worst forecast of the season for me.

Just another 150 years for another Worcester or Springfield

It's telling when you see that a thread has had no posts in almost an hour. And the last post is about no one posting. lol

dreams of SLGT risks

The skiing is out of this world. And this is not some woods in the middle of nowhere, this is chair served terrain

Ensembles work by creating multiple perturbations to the initialization. They have a way of knowing where the largest errors are likely to occur and run from there. But perturbations are technically introduced error at initialization. So if you’re overall trending toward fewer “hits” as we approach the short range that’s a bad sign.