All Activity

Thats what I’m hoping for, a temporary transient -pna as an incoming wave undercuts across the sw towards here.

Moving forward, the pattern looks active in week 2, with perhaps a chance of some moisture laden storms approaching from the south & west, instead of this never ending Clipper parade that we’ve had since mid December. There should be cold air around to tap into, so hopefully we can reel in something specific to track for later in the month.

Not what most of us were hoping for this week, especially with the way several model runs had been trending. Hopefully we at least see some snow in the air & maybe a coating for some.

It’s gonna be a very early spring so some will need to

Wednesday Night A chance of rain before 4am, then a slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind 5 to 14 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

21 in Marysville for the low.

Hopefully the boundary is over a police cruiser in Brooklyn.

Not much cushion lol

Low of 30 at the house but 23 through the rurals on the car therm.

slim pickings out there but euro selling some long duration duster potential well out in fantasy range and EPS looks decent during that window

Hopefully the cold is overplayed and we ride closer to the boundary. Nothing worse than cold and dry.

Some of them are gaining legs though. Thursday was always a long shot.

Bring the frigid cold.

DAB+ on deck for thursday night

My guess is that we will need at least one KU benchmark snowstorm of 12”+ in a wide enough area before the season is done for most of the major sites of EWR,NYC, LGA,JFK, and ISP to reach 25”+ on the season. But we are still getting no indication of a benchmark coastal snowstorm track in the near term. We haven’t had any seasons reach 25”+ since 1995-1996 without at least one 12”+ snowstorm. Since our snowy patterns since the mid 90s haven’t lasted long enough for a series of small to moderate events to get us to the 25”+ mark. So we needed to maximize our active snowy periods before we shifted out of the snowy intervals. But even if we do eventually get one 12”+ event, it’s not a guarantee that the 5 major sites will all reach 25”. This is what happened back in 2022 with the KU events favoring eastern sections like ISP and not EWR. During this record strong Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet era since 2018-2019, there have only been 3-4 widespread 12”+ coastal snowstorms near the 40/70 benchmark. This is why we are at 7 year record low for snowfall across the area. Our last benchmark KU was at the end of January 2022. From 2010 to 2018 there were 27 snowstorms closer to the benchmark with relatively good coverage of 12”+ across multiple sites often with numerous counties involved. The tracks which were west of the benchmark favored interior zones. Tracks near or to the east of the benchmark favored the coastal zones. Widespread 12”+ snowstorms since 2009-2010 with the maximum snowfall total in the OKX Zones. 2022 Jan 28-29….Islip….24.7 2021 Jan 31-Feb 2....Blomingdale, NJ.....26.1 2020 Dec 16-17 East Tremont, NY....12.4 2019 Mar 3-4...Monroe, CT....12.0 2018 Nov 15....Mount Hope, NY.......18.3 Mar 21-22...Patchogue, NY......20.1 Mar 13...Southampton,NY.....18.3 Mar 8....New Farfield, CT..........26.8 Mar 2...Monroe, NY.................14.0 Jan 4...Islip, NY.......................15.8 2017 Mar 14...Montgomery, NY.......23.5 Feb 9...Selden, NY...................16.0 Jan 7...Orient, NY....................12.5 2016 Feb 5...Setauket, NY................12.0 Jan 23..JFK,NY.........................30.5 2015 Feb 2..New Faifield, CT............12.0 Jan 26-27....Orient,NY.............28.5 2014 Feb 13-14...Roselle, NJ............16.7 Jan 21-22....Centerreach,NY....14.0 Jan 2-3......Lindenhurst, NY.....12.5 2013 Mar 8....Harriman,NY..............15.0 Feb 8....Upton, NY..................30.9 2012 Nov 7-8.....Monroe, CT..........13.5 Jan 21......North Haven, CT....12.0 2011 Oct 29.....Harriman, NY.........16.0 Jan 26-27...NYC................... 19.0 Jan 11-12.......Meriden, CT....29.0 2010 Feb 25-26...Mount Hope, NY...27.5 Dec 26........Elizabeth, NJ........31.8 Feb. 10.....Sound Beach, NY....16.2 2009 Dec 19-20....Upton, NY..........26.3

It's been 2 weeks of model runs with a good pattern 10 days away. It rotates from horrible to great every other day. But nothing really changes lol

They are tepid on both but prob more interested in that little follow-up wave on 1/20 than the 18th.

Ensembles don't like 1/18 but there have been some hits on the ops ocassionally in the 1/18-1/20 time frame

EPS is still quite snowy in the LR. They are not very interested in 1/18 though. They really seems to like the post-1/20 period.

What a storm! I drove up into the Berks at the end of the storm. I wish I had taken some video, it was amazing!

6z EuroAI cozying up to the idea too.

Sure, but to be fair with the last threat there were plenty of warning signs... but some just ignored them. Beware the turds in the punch bowl

I see it briefly at 264hr. The 360hr 0z EPS has a favorable look

Those of us who got 0.00” from last weekends rain are not going to be in good shape

If we could get record breaking Fairbanks cold, I'm sure many would take a week of that. At a minimum, the pipe breaks and ice skating on the Charles would keep the news exciting more than it is now I suppose. 40/70 doing Ice Road Truckers on the Charles to skip traffic