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I'm very conflicted about tomorrow and so are models. Thermals and dynamics are a concern

About 1" here. Heavy wet snow and 33F.

Its the op so grain of salt, but geez....look out West says stj is just beginning to warm up. And those looks up top and out West are chef's kiss

That has major icestorm written all over it .

Most of the public out this way don’t even know there could be snowstorm tomorrow here…so you’re spot on.

Hoping I get 1.5”+ tomorrow

People need to realize that the NWS is updating their maps on the fly. It may take them 6-8hrs to digest modeling and update appropriately. I saw no issues with that graphic earlier this AM. They issue those based upon level of confidence. Got a peak at the rest of 12z guidance, save for Ukie and Euro sweets. Some beefy solutions in them. Looks like the 12a GFS op and 12z GEFS are now on the eastern edge of guidance.

Hm...perhaps the stj waking up could help with that?

Coming down pretty hard now in the UWS and with these rates it’s just starting to stick to car tops and colder surfaces. Would need to sustain this for any chance at a few inches.

Thats a very reasonable forecast, IMO. 0.5-1” with colder areas (NNW) and areas seeing more precip (east) seeing the upper end of that range is a very common sense climo based approach to a storm that’s largely going to miss us. Could we boom and many of us see 1-3”? Sure, it’s possible… but mt holly isn’t going to put out a new map based on the RAP and HRRR 24 hours out

Unclear if the 25th is the big one or 29th, or both. But 25th can hit followed by an Archabault near the 29th as the NAO briefly flips positive. Loving the loaded pattern. Sometimes the last in succession when a tellie flips is the one we do this hobby for, so we'll see.

Has anything really changed though? We still lack an established cold high. We're still relying on cold air chasing moisture. I guess higher qpf allows more dynamic cooling?

GGEM waves hello

Really only get one shot at this given how close we are to onset. Folks won’t pay attention to numerous evolving maps imo. Makes sense to take the time to get it right.

Fwiw ukie is pretty light for tomorrow. Just an inch or two outside eastern LI

I could see another 1" - 3" for Carroll, northern Baltimore/Harford/Cecil tomorrow.

Impressive!

Yeah, no high to the north as I said. I don't really love this setup but I do think that the air mass might be just cold enough that we get accumulation. I'd just go lower than snow maps though. I don't think anyone is seeing 5 or 6 inches.

Nice day here. 42⁰ It looked for a while like the sun might peak through the clouds.

GFS says surface temps here are 12 degrees when the precip begins. Then 1.5" of QPF falls before temps rise above 20 degrees. Acceptable. Edited: also has -16F here the morning of the 28th.

Yep giant flakes. The last half hour 1/2 inch

I will take that

That’s crazy the diff between you and I. Congrats! And safe travels.

Definitely over 2” and still under heavy returns for what looks like the next hour. 3” is looking likely. And maybe a couple inches tomorrow. Great winter weekend.

Heavy stuff right now. Very strong thermal gradient driving these rates.