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Much cooler air moved into the region late last night. As a result, the New York City area is experiencing its coolest weekend so far this fall. Tomorrow will get off to a very chilly start. Many outlying areas will see frost. There is even a chance that the temperature could dip just below 40° in Central Park. The last time that happened this early in the season was during the 2015 El Niño. November 2015 was then much warmer than normal and some of the long-range guidance suggests that Pacific Air could begin to dominate much of the North American continent to start November. Temperatures will moderate next week with highs reaching 60° or somewhat above Tuesday through Friday. There remains uncertainty concerning rainfall potential. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -28.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.489 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

NHC tagging this next offshore storm as a lemon.

The 1990s winters were NOT "much cooler". 1990s winters were warmer than winters of the 2000s or 2010s here. Detroit winters 1990s- 28.7 2000s- 27.8 2010s- 28.2 NYC winters 1990s- 36.4 2000s- 35.5 2010s- 36.1

Latest guidance keeps us very dry thru the remainder of October. Freeze tonight for many western locations !!!

49 here-finally clearing out. Guessing we get a good frost here with a freeze warning just to my north.

Wondering when the gust to 30-35 are going to start?

Early predictions : 20-30 inches in DC (normal amounts 13.7" 30-40 inches in Philly (normal amounts 23.1” 35-45 inches in NYC (normal amounts 29.8” slightly above normal temperatures (+1.0°C to +3.0°C) averaged for the season; however, there will be occasional significant Arctic air outbreaks numerous coastal storms leading to above normal snowfall for the season - perhaps even a blockbuster snowstorm or two similar to other very strong El Nino winters (February 1983, January 2016) polar vortex disruptions” and “Sudden Stratospheric Warming” suggests there can be Arctic air outbreaks to deal with; especially, during the second half of the winter. The El Nino will be peaking around December and it will turn into a "Modoki El Nino" with the warmest waters in the central part of the Pacific zones.

Seems to be holding steady state in regards to an EWRC. True signature of an intensifying high end TC .

Looks like some inversion issues for us up here.

Should be the coldest night of the fall so far overnight for many, Low to mid 20’s here, Colder up North.

Love getting these Guam reflectivity shots on this monster...

WB 18Z 3K NAM is a tick warmer this run for tomorrow am.

Mayer and Anthony cut from the same cloth.

Afternoon high of 57 IMBY, but it'll go in the books as a midnight high of 60.

Afternoon

Made it to 60 today. Not has cold feeling as I was expecting. Winds were blah too.

No doubt about it. Rain chances for next weekend just fell into death valley. Texas is well west of the Super Nino Moisture Plume. No rain for us throughout the Nino. Southeast will be Waterworld though. Worst drought in Texas history shall have taken place during one of the strongest El Ninos in all of recorded history. We do DRY like a BOSS.

Fall training time for them... hopefully someone doesnt injure his finger like a certain boston hot prospect did...no need to miss much of the plowing season

you have to wonder if places like Wawa should bother opening this season

First of all - El Nino has little to do with warm Halloween vs. cool Halloween. An example would be Halloween 2024 which had highs in the 80's here and it was a neutral Enso - going into a weak La Nina. Secondly I don't understand your need to use vulgar language on here.........

Hold on that cant be right...someone here said the threat for a freeze had vanished...

Well at least you can cozy up to an open window this winter with your favorite book.

I find it interesting he doesn't acknowledge his hypocrisy.