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Yup. Understandable. Get under the FGEN bands and its a different story. Outside of that there is some uncertainty about how cold it gets how quick in conjunction with how long it actually snows moderately once it gets going.

This will be my last one

Haha. I was gonna do it too but it felt like low hanging fruit.

So, not your first final call, or your final initial estimate to be revised later, but an actual final call??

Different Patriots

There's a definite hedging going on quick mover warmish temps i bet tiny wet flakes that struggle to accumulate

That's what she said ?

My updated forecast and final call (Note BR and cacotins can be double my numbers)

We're not to that point yet. Just a dusting on the roof of the Bronco

I like seeing a consistent ~0.3" QPF in the DC area, my expectation in this area is on the order of 2-4" in a fairly short period of time through early morning. Tomorrow promises to be quite wintry...it will be clearing out but it will be cold and getting windy, with snow on the ground!

I say let it happen, and let it crash!!!

Clouds cleared out just as the sun was setting on my evening run. Temp has dropped down to 37/31. Like the trends, maybe a boom of 2 inches in Haymarket. .

This is a really nice QPF distribution. Very apparent the banding is going to be impressive north of I-70 to the M/D and north. This would be a classic scenario for 5-9” for those areas. Ratio improvement through the early morning hrs. too. I would be excited if I was up that way.

Thank you!

Thank you! It was amazing. I looked outside from my apartment and saw the color just in time to rush up to the rooftop deck and grab a few shots before it disappeared. I love the sunset color at this time of year!

I was actually replying to Golf as he questioned what the cold phases were. As far as the lw pattern, yeah, I agree although we do have that Aleutian HP but not the typical Nina Ridging up to there. Odd Pattern. Probably a product of the Waves you mentioned earlier messing with the MJO. Interference.

Three inches plus or send it all back

Probably. I always thought 3" was probably the max here. Just a bit odd how 'aggressive' they were this am and much less so now.

Yeps! Exactly. Nice shots!

Was just about to say this. By far the most bullish map I’ve seen by a met so far

I’ve had three hours or so of pixie dust. Briefly picked up a few times, then back to pixie. Between 1.25” and 1.5” so far eyeballing.

Gotta love the rare W. Radar is looking reasonably better than the models predicted also.

Yeah but its still more like NINO than NINA,you generally see the Atmospheric River out west in a NINO not NINA

Silly.

Roads here caved a little while ago. More than I expected already.