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The models at this point seem to be honing in on what's going to happen. Let's keep this in mind for next week's event. A different set up, but these southern storms are difficult to figure out more than a couple days out.

yeah somewhere between you and i looks to be "the line". Not sweatin it yet, but if 0z NAM's come in any warmer, it might be time to start rethinkin my thinkin. This event has been largely consistent on most models for a couple days, so I cant imagine big surprises exist, but for as we've been sayin for a couple days, a little means a lot for us in the transition zone.

GFS for the win!

This is becoming less exciting lol

They haven’t done 4PM updates in months. They update the afd around 12:45-1:45 PM and AM every day and that’s it. I assume it’s the budget cuts. I could be wrong. They very seldom, and I mean very seldom will update in the 9:45-11AM or PM range nowadays and one of those days was today. They also do their zone forecasts the same way. It’s kinda sad.

It is just a cold sore.

Yes. It's been a slow but noticeable bleed. And that will matter south and east of 81.

I've gotten pretty mellow over the years with these storms, but I gotta say that I now officially loathe the term "warm nose." On top off the snow-ruining implications, it just sounds gross. If I never heard the term again it wouldn't be soon enough.

(there's more for baltimore north)

What rates are you looking at during that period?

No thanks....I don't want HRPS

I honestly dont recall.

ok, we got our gulf low forming

18z HRPS is a beatdown!!

GFS still has it at 162. Let’s see how she handles from there

I’m not worried. Steady as she goes here

Purchase at your own risk.

The rgem solution is what Im hoping for. You get a death band over I95 before the changeover. Thats our best hope getting higher totals to verify.

I dont think this storm will bring strong enough sustained winds to see blizzard warnings, but could see some blizzardlike conditions.

18z NAM has TYS topping out at 48 degrees Sunday evening. At the same time it's hi-res version and GFS are 34.

1/23 18z UKMET total QPF Total Snowfall / Sleet:

RAP