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Setting aside specific snowfall amounts, the 1/22 0z NBM showed a snow-liquid ratio of 16.6 for New York City while the 1/22 12z NBM showed 14.1. With an estimated 1.00" or more QPF ( 12z NBM), the actual ratios will be lower. Moreover, the impact of a closed 700 mb low over the Great Lakes Region will also bring about some warming aloft, likely leading to a mix or change to sleet in New York City and its nearby suburbs. Some statistics for storms with QPF of 1.00" or more: During the height of the storm, peak ratios will probably be 11:1-13:1. Soundings will be crucial once the event draws closer. Assuming 0.50"-0.75" of liquid during that period, one is probably talking about 5.5" to almost 10" of snow. Thus, it seems right now that a 6"+ snowfall in New York City is a good bet with higher amounts possible. Areas to the north and west of NYC (Morristown, Allentown, Middletown, etc.) could have higher snowfall amounts (better ratios and reduced risk of mixing) despite somewhat lower QPF figures. The 12z NAM's soundings could provide some early insight into the push of warm air. That's one area where the model actually does quite well.

I've been telling people to always leave an inch or so at the bottom so nobody is trying to straight shovel sleet. Figure most folks won't be starting at CC radar and wanted to keep the advice generic.

I like my spot for this one in Rockland County. I also have a hard time believing the sleet mixes into NYC for a significant amount or time.

The NBM you posted seems to be using inflated snow-liquid ratios. Compare the NBM version 5 (experimental) with the 4.3 (operational), the same as what you posted. The experimental version 5 snowfall amounts make more sense given the model QPF.

You're a drinker?!?

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf latest briefing from PHI. High-impact storm, no matter what.

I have to work unfortunately

Throwing this out there too. I’ll be at Other Half Brewing tomorrow from 12-4. They have wine and cocktails too. Even a few N/As to boot. Let me know. Love talking beer and snow all damn day. Bet nobody in here knew that about me.

Should have fired him after last season.

Does a 6:45AM flight out of Logan Monday AM have a chance to get out? I wonder about all of the different dynamics. Doesn't seem to be blizzardish, and I've taken off on trips where the snow was definitely heavy. That said, it didn't come after a foot of snow previously needed to clear from the runway, but alas.

2 extremely trustworthy models at range.

I don't wanna bang on CWG, but wtf is this? https://x.com/capitalweather/status/2014307915096617399?s=20 Only an 85% chance of ONE inch of snow? lol...

In the overall pattern, they have been in the long range. But I don't know if that applies in the short range....probably not, since each storm is different with its unique conditions.

12z HRRR had the same thing.

From my review the NBM General weighting philosophy Time RangeHeavier Weight 0–24hHRRR, RAP, obs 24–48hNAM, HRRR, HREF 48–72hNAM + globals 3–5 daysEuro, CMC, ensembles 5–7 daysEnsembles dominate It’s NOAA/NWS’s official blended forecast system, designed to combine many models, ensembles, and observations into a single, statistically optimized forecast for sensible weather (temps, precip, wind, snow, etc.). What goes into the NBM (Inputs)? Global Models ECMWF (Euro) GFS CMC (GGEM) UKMET ICON (limited elements) Ensembles EPS GEFS GEPS HREF (short range) Regional / Mesoscale HRRR NAM / NAM-Nest RAP RGEM Observations & Post-Processing Surface observations Climatology MOS-style bias correction Downscaling to fine grids (~2.5 km)

I think it also attempts to adjust for model biases. That has to be the reason why the blend is currently higher than any of the models that it’s blending. there was a slightly confusing post in the mid Atlantic sub forum that suggested that a few recent high ratio storms that were positive busts account for the strong positive adjustment that it’s clearly making here

this is your moment^

Life is short my friend. I'm sorry to soon hear about that battery leaving you stranded.

Oh how us northerners pray!

Well if I ever decide to end it all, I know exactly how i'm going to do it. Yeah, f****** hot air balloon ride right into a Kocin-Uccellin . That's how f****** legends are made fellas.

Looking over Kuchera it looks like the average GFS ratio is ~14:1 while the average Euro ratio will be ~13:1 (for DC, Balt) Take from that what you will, but I would say that's a decent estimate, if anything a little bit high.

Not the kind of rim job I want

What do you think for Cvill. I've been telling people 4-8 low end with an inch of two of sleet and the possibility of .5+ freezing rain or the high end snowfall of 8-14 with an inch or two of sleet.