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Another good thread from @griteater. 2017 was the last year we had even respectable December snowfall.

For folks that want a front loaded winter. This one is for you

Correct, but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything for us. This could just as easily benefit Europe. But something to watch for sure

And it's still below normal on 12/31.

I’m going to go stand there when we hit -41 in December. The village did go subzero 20x last DJFM. Interestingly, the coldest day overall was 12/22/24 with an avg temp of -2.1.

My work gave me the ultimatum to move to Charlotte, NC or get lost in 30 days. I've been remote for six year since they closed our office here. Looks like I'm moving down there. I'm gonna miss the mid-Atlantic winters. Weather seems hot and boring down there in the Piedmont.

Thank you for saying the quiet part outloud. I have him on ignore anyways.

Seeing the slightly above normal precip anomaly doesn't surprise me given the H5 look in the quote post. You have a boundary pressing south and we're right on the edge. It's possible some light rail tracks could be hinted at by guidance.

At the ASOS, is where he spent most of his days.

Looks like it’s near 0 now…but yeah we’ll need to see a prolonged spike decently south. I don’t have my hopes up for tonight.

Weak Niña?

Very interesting Steve…very curious how this plays out, and if so, how it affects us here. Hopefully it doesn’t split and move into Siberia, or sit it’s fanny right on our faces either.

Wait, cold and wet, in a Niña?

Roommate is from there, born and raised. I have seen some really nice photos from that area. And it's always the cold spot (SLK).

It should be a good night for stargazing IMBY regardless, so I’ll be out anyway.

Nice sunset at least

Yeah I am going to give it a chance on a remote possibility.

I'll look more at the remainder of those winters later tonight. I'm about to go to the Tennessee game. I will say that January of 1970 was extremely cold and snowy. We were below zero 7 times, and in the single digits 5 more times for lows. Not just -1 either. -10s at times. We had 3 days below -10 and 20 days of snow on the ground.

Bz is strongly north so you're not gonna see shit anyway. Get that back to -35 like last night and then we can talk.

It will be interesting to see how that plays out. I have heard several long range forecasters favor a more severe winter for New England due to the combination of weak polar vortex and La Niña. It has been a fairly stormy fall pattern this year, very different to what we saw last year with a dry pattern until Feb. I am much more optimistic than usual, but like always we won’t know until it actually happens.

Bad news: THE THIRD CME HAS ARRIVED (UPDATED): The highly-anticipated 3rd CME has arrived. It struck Earth's magnetic field at approximately 1917 UTC on Nov. 12th. Our first impression of the impact: It was not strong enough to cause a repeat of last night's extreme aurora display. We are downgrading our storm forecast from category G4 (severe) to G2/G3 (moderate/strong). Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

Whatever. Gonna drive out to Loudoun and see what happens. Get dinner somewhere different if it doesn't pan out.

Yeah often times the much hyped additional round never works out.

Nice sunset though, oh well if that bZ flips maybe I’ll head out too.

We all suffer from a perception bias where we notice when someone gets anomalous weather but not all the times “nothing” is happening.