All Activity

Sat looking good. WxWiz needs the the tstm "hit!" And then Scott "Ossipee" hailers moving N-S on Sun. Can't get rid of these cold 500 troughs rotating through and the blocking. If the 00z ECMWF is correct, after Sat, no sig heat or dew point (gin and) juice UFN for eastern sections.

Winter storns in the South outside of the mountains are for the most part somewhat freaky events. Thus, due to the low frequency, our snowiest or iciest winters are often from mainly just one major (or series of) winter storms at most. Examples: late Jan of 1940, Feb of 1952, mid Feb of 1958, 12/31/1963, 2/9-10/1973, 3/1-2/1980, 3/24/1983, late Jan of 1987, 1/7-8/1988, mid Jan of 1992, the ice storm of late Jan 2005, and Dec of 2018. All of these were during El Niño and these were enough to make them wintry. So, El Nino’s on average produce for wintry precip despite often being Mei Lu from just one storm on the right track (usually Gulf to off SE Coast) at the right time (when cold enough air to the N/NW being tapped into enough).

Can also see scenario where Saturday night is north of 90.. weak , dying stuff here and then Sunday is IJD to you

Decent setup for you, and do not use NMB for convective stuff.

Not even gonna chance it until it’s a virtual certainty. This time of year if fert sits on grass it totally kills the lawn under hot sun

Oh, and WxWiz will like this, there were likely several spinners in SE MA and RI for Gloria, in addition to the one confirmed in Billerica MA. Look at the PNS from WSO PVD issued 3 days after Gloria (the bulletin is cut/pasted as is - typos are real). TTAA00 KPVD 301506 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON MA 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 30 1985 THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF TORNADOS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GLORIA IN THE AREA ON FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 27. 1. LOCAL POLICE IN SEEKONK MA REPORTED A TORNADO HAVING OCCURRED AT PINE STREET ON THE REHOBOTH-SEEKONK MA LINE AT APPROXIMATELY 230 PM EDT. 2. A CHARLES CINTOLO IN GLOUCESTER RI REPORTED A TORNADO IN THAT AREA. 3. REPORTER FROM THE PROVIDENCE JOURNAL STATED THAT SHE RECEIVED TWO REPORTS OF TORNADOS: A. NEAR THE BURLINGAME STATE FOREST IN CHARLESTOWN RI. B. NEAR A GOLF COURSE IN W. KINGSTOWN RI. OUTSIDE THE AREA TWEKSBURY MA REPORTED A TORNADO WITNESSED BY STATE POLICE. SUMMARIZING: IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT ALONG WITH HURRICANCE GLORIA, THERE WERE TORNADOS IN THE AREA. FORTUNATELY THEY DID NOT ADD SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE DAMAGE ALREADY DONE BY GLORIA. THERE WERE NO LIVES LOST: NO BUILDINGS BLOWN APART, ETC TO WARRANT NOT PERSONALLY INVESTIGATING THESE REPORTS. THEY WILL BE RECORDED AS HAVING OCCURED IN OUR LOCAL STORM REPORTS AND STATION CLIMATOLOGICAL HISTORY BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY WILL SERVE AS A REMINDER IN FUTURE HURRICANE EVENTS THAT TORNADOS CAN OCCUR WITH HURICANES. INCIDENTALLY) THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAD A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM 10AM EDT TO 6PM EDT FRIDAY SEPT. 1985. RAMELLA So why did they not record these are tornadoes (they are not in NCEI Storm Data - even though it says they were recorded). Probably the same reason as Bob, magnitude of HU event/wind damage overshadowed individual spinner reports. Of course, this would not happen today. Once the NWS MAR occurred in the mid-late 90s, wx verification and outreach greatly expanded, and so did what got logged in Storm Data. As added bonus, here is the LSR from WSO BDR for the July 10, 1989 spinner event. WxWiz is . I recall this report vividly. What caught my eye the most was 4.4" of rain in 1/2 hr! I believe it b/c it was a MONSTA HP beast. The sky darkened black as night for this storm. WOUS00 KBDR 111200 STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BRIDGEPORT CT 740 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 1989 LOCAL STORM REPORT FOR MONDAY JUL 10 1989 TIME COUNTY TOWN EVENT 519 PM EDT NEW HAVEN OXFORD 11/2 INCH HAIL 524 PM EDT NEW HAVEN NEAR WOODBURY 1 INCH HAIL 542 PM EDT NEW HAVEN NEW HAVEN GUST 70 KNOTS BY COAST GUARD 605 PM EDT NEW HAVEN OXFORD 4.4 INCHES RAIN 1/2 HR. 605 PM EDT NEW HAVEN HAMDEN POSSIBLE TORNADO EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO HOUSES BUSINESSES NUMEROUS INJURES. 541 PM EDT MIDDLESEX MIDDLETOWN TREES DOWN SMALL HOUSE DAMAGE 605 PM EDT NEW HAVEN NEW HAVEN EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO MANY HOUSES. THOUSANDS OF TREES DOWN. COUNTY 100,000 WITHOUT POWER. MANY INJURIES. POSSIBLE TORNADOS BY NEW HAVEN POLICE. END/FOOSE

I'm a huge VH fan and good for Dave for getting out there. But man, I just can't look. Saw VH in their prime countless times and that's how I choose to remember them.

NBM is like .20 or less . Missing out last weekend really hurt

Dropped fert and grub ex last Saturday before the hurricane. Give it a day, but I think you have a decent chance of storms.

Yep, we know.

Bob tracking farther E made all the difference, If you were in SE MA and CC, it was the BIG BLOW. You can't expect too much when an accelerating HU passes E of you location at this latitude if you are looking for wind. R++ OTOH? However sometimes wild turkey surprise occurs. Edna in Sep 1954 BOS G88KT, it highest gust on record (beat G87KT from Carol 10 days earlier), and it was out of the NW as Edna passed over CC. Edna was going ET rather quickly and I'd bet good $$ it was a sting jet over SNE. If you look at HU Fiona's epic transition S of NS in Sep 2022, that's what likely happened to Edna. Bob's landfall at BID was 90 kt, which is considerably above Gloria's (75 kt) and Belle's (65 kt) landfalls -- the strongest since Donna in 1960, so don't dis Bob! NWS BOX told me not long after Bob, they had a number of reports of "Scott spinners" on CC, but due to the extent of the straight-line wind damage and resources, they could not investigate those reports. This was 2 years before the WSR-88D was installed, which now makes it much easier to pin down spinner reports and check specific areas, never mind cameras everywhere. So the next HU that makes landfall in SNE, we'll likely see a number of spinners.

Yep, annoying. Have a brand new field of grass. Would love to drop some extra seed and fert but we Steined.

Can’t even drop fertilizer with no rains

It'a not a bad setup. Dews increase, decent s/w, 500 temps cool late day.

yeah, that's a good point. I've come to think based on experience that mlv lapse rate may be our most important metric up here in NE. Maybe orographic forcing offsets some

Stein pattern now

Today’s OISST update (for June 3rd) doesn’t have the dramatic 0.09C rise of each of the last 2 days, but it still rose 0.04C to +1.229C.The implied RONI equivalent is ~+0.7C: *Corrected for typos*

Some of the models tried getting some better lapse rates in here late Saturday. Obviously that’s probably more of a now cast thing, but could give a little boost to storms if we can get sufficient mid level lapse rates.

I agree, but verbatim the model run posted is not a classic +PNA/-EPO look that we tend to see in weaker Ninos. There may be periods of it, however which could be factored in the ensemble mean. I just wouldn’t take those blues in the South as “winter-like cold that supports snowfall most of the month.”

Still touring at his finest...it's David Lee Roth! Don't think he sold out the Keswick last time around. Man, drugs hit him hard for only being 71 and borderline mental....looks 80ish.

I will give you this much ... waaaaay back when the dinosaurs ruled there was this model called the ETA. It's the ancient ancestral root of the present era's NAM species.... At every point along a species evolutionary past it had specialized abilities... In completing this metaphor, the ETA of 1995 was a spectacular tool for a very specific lesser known skill: convective initiation. That's basically timing when the convective temperature is reached and if there is any inhibition in the region... it is successfully overcome. We would cross up those metrics and it would say 1:45 pm (say) ...and at 1:38 or 1:57 there it was, the first cell squirting it's load on radar. That was a lot of generations ago and the present day NAM... yeah, there's heredity there, but I don't know if it shares in that same unique ability like it's ancient forefather.

When do the NAM’s become discontinued? And has the NWS maybe decided against doing that by some chance lol

i thought he still drinks Zimas

I say we rebrand MD 20/20 for CoastalWx and call it "MAN SNOW!"