All Activity

Meanwhile, at Sugar Mountain:

Just a fun (or not so fun) part of nature. My parents (in Rock Hill) had trees coming down in the woods behind their house for 15-20 years after Hugo in 89'. Some from ice storms, some from thunderstorms/high winds....you can also see several swaths where small tornados came through during the storm

It was to a degree. They expected some sleet but also more snow and it became evident it was going to be a monster sleet storm inside 24hrs. Models weren’t as good back then, so it happened, but there was always an indication. Bottom line is WAA aloft tends to be robust when you have phasing elements well to our west. This wasn’t textbook for us. It was back further west, but we have serious cold leading in, so unlike other setups where the ground temps even warm to freezing or slightly above, they’ll stay frigid, so impacts will still be high. It’ll be more sleet than we care for at this rate, and it just is what it is. Need that front end piece to ramp up and really deliver to fight back the warm nose intrusion between 850-700mb, which could still happen.

SLEETY SAYS "Don't forget to include sleet!"

ICON holds steady.

Rgem a smidge warmer or it's just faster

Any thoughts on a gradient from BOS up to your area? Boston at 20", Dover 15"?

@40/70 Benchmark The PV block is wins. Cheers.

Here's what snow depths could look like after the storm according to the 12z NAM:

@Bob Chillif the RGEM is believable it is an absolute beatdown and has been for multiple runs in a row down here. I've always known it to be a cold-er outlier though so NAM would probably be more believable regarding thermals.

ICON & Canadian are sticking with higher qpfs and colder wejjj.

NAM had me at 20" Kuchie on hr84 and still dumping snow... Wtaf Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

This is going to be something… ice storm warning and I might not see any frozen precip. .

Snowfall depth positive change looks solid too. Maybe some sleet contamination over the Laurels?

Winter Storm Warning for DC. 7-14”

I would count on more adjustments probably south still too early to be sure about anything though IMO. I think the GFS has the best handle on this now and it has been consistent for days now.

Best 6 hour frame on Icon

hell they're not even reliable after the fact...we talk about it all the time here; in 2006 rahway reported 28 inches; i measured 18 just across the border.

It's interesting output because Northern Virgina snows for 9 hours if you look at the 3-hour increments but the Kuch map has them at 3.5 inches? I get the warm nose thing but the thump was still quite impressive. Bizarre output to me.

If I am putting my glass half full glasses on, both the 12k and 3k NAM are now very close to a HUGE event for our area...it would only take like a 30 mile adjustment southeast of the snow/sleet line during the 6 hour critical period Sunday midday for our area to go from 6-7" to 15" of snow! It's really close...the warm layer is not very big in our area...so as is it's not a great run, it's within a reasonable adjustment from being much much better.

I haven't heard ( haven't run out to NWS afds just yet, either ) mention of specific PWAT values in this air mass transporting up underneath the boundary... Given the source is from the deep S/proximity to the Gulf Of Wet Fart Mexico ( I refuse to honor the idiocy of the renaming ...)...it seems we could be shitting a ton more than people are really aware with this whole beast. But we'll see. It's possible to choke-snow fall rates from isentropic lift. I'm also wondering if just gets so extreme that there's thunder, too.

This scares me more than anything. Just a little bit of ice at the bottom of the mountains. There could be catastrophic tree damage. .