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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Ginx snewx replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
Climate data on snowfall is absolutely horrible. The real reliable sites are COOPs like Jeff in Staffordville CT and Stacey in North Foster RI, also Revere Mass and Blue Hill -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
weatherwiz replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
December can have some biggies but that also shows that March used to be just as snowy, if not snowier than December. I'm sure the BDL average for March the past 10-15 years has went down -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
MsHeatMiser replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Just a little south nudge needed for the Monmouth jackpot zone. -
For this type of event 60 hours might as well be 300. We’re talking about nailing down a very localized meso band. That’s like expecting the morels to get a line of thunderstorms correct from 60 hours. Juts getting typical Nina chaotic northern stream waves right outside 48 hours is hard enough. This is almost impossible. This isn’t a split flow Nino pattern where nailing STJ systems at long leads is a legit thing. The best analog in anyone’s set was 2014 and remember in that season almost none of the snows were depicted well outside 48 hours. The times it looked like snow from day 5 typically busted and almost all the snows that winter looked ambiguous at best from 72 hours out and trended into something inside that range. edit: best analog meaning the snowiest and one we hope ends up correct I’m not saying this is a 2014 clone coming. But I did incorporate some ideas from that winter into my expectations for this season. So far we’ve just been a bit unlucky. But every year is different. That year we got lucky and a lot of those waves hit us. A similar pattern won’t necessarily produce as good of results.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
RedSky replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Dr No(GFS) Coating on Ralphs Christmas decorations 1.3" south Philly -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
weatherwiz replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
I have the gaps in the data in a notebook that Will posted way back in the day and some stuff from Ryan too for BDL. It just sucks you check the records online and you either have no data or incorrect. Just think of the discrepancies it elicits. Like if you go check BDL on threadex for 1995-1996...it only has BDL like 106" or something versus 115.2" or 116.2" (forgot what it is). -
12/12: The little Friday clipper that could? Or won't.
Bob Chill replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
I've made plenty of good and bad decisions in my life. This move has been the best good decision by many miles. On top of cost of living, things like never sitting in traffic and beautiful scenery are quite valuable. People are genuine, honest, and helpful. Go to any store (even big box like lowes/wally) and employees are genuinely happy to help. Neighbors will help out for any reason and never be rude or intrusive. After 25 years in Rockville I never knew this world existed lol. Rural living has drawbacks of course and I can totally understand why this type of life isn't for everyone but for us personally, our mental health has never been better and we've never been happier on a daily basis. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
RedSky replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Euro 1" Blue mountain to 3" south Philly -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Ginx snewx replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
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Love the tiny 4" jackpot for Annapolis
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Clearly not leaning on gfs with their thoughts since they have the 1” line back to I-81.
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
weatherwiz replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
that data gap is so stupid. It pisses me off everytime I look at snowfall data. -
12/12: The little Friday clipper that could? Or won't.
stormy replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
A 2 pm 4 model blend for Augusta County is .6" Kuchera. WWA's for Rockbridge south for 1 - 3 inches -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Ginx snewx replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
weatherwiz replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
there is almost a better shot at getting severe weather on May 31 than there is a white Christmas -
NWS is very agressive:
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Not to mention you can all models/runs for free on Pivotal Weather beta site.
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Ginx snewx replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
Yep since 1975 25 out of 50 years had 0 snow cover here -
Euro operational has cold returning with a vengeance the 26th. Eps? Naso much.
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December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Not clipper, but interesting I think...The 12z Euro loses the infinite loop feedback over Pac NW. We saw something similar w/ the repetitive and erroneous Baja lows earlier this month. The 12z GFS got locked into a Pac low(maybe it is right?) complex, but the Euro kicked the trough eastward. Take a look at the differences. There is cold air drainage into the NA Prairies on the Euro. Compare that to the GFS at the same hour. Now to be fair, the GFS eventually kicks everything eastward. I think anytime we see a standing ridge over the SE this winter, we are really going to have to question what is going on upstream. Those ridges can happen and there is precedence. But they have been mirages this winter. I do think a Chinook is coming. But until the PAC NW repetitive low situation gets resolved, everything after that is probably a crap shoot. BTW, infinite loops have always interested me, mainly because they are a pain to programmers. I had to take three programing classes at UT. Infinite loops were challenging puzzles to solve, and sometimes a huge pain in the you know what. We really want to be routing for that 1050+ hp to continue to show up on modeling. This could be a blip, but worth watching. -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Kitz Craver replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
Please keep the bedroom talk between you and wifey private, thanks wolfman -
The station recorded a gust of 27 when it blew over. Highest gust of the year and the station is at 2m, so it’s pretty impressive
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December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Biggest caveat I can see now for this clipper, would be the inevitable 2 hours of virga on the front end
