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Euro is warm both days. CAA on Sunday but not horrible.

MRX had a 20% mix for my area .

I'll bet I end up right near the zone of demarcation...

So I guess I can tell this story now about Matt. (I wasn’t going to tell this out of respect while he was there) My mom was in an assisted living facility between Powell and Halls for a month or so not long ago. The first day she was there I went to eat lunch with her and Matt Hiken was sitting at a table. It took me a little while, but I finally asked the nurse if Matt could have a normal conversation with a person. The next time I went to see my mom I walked in the facility and on the left there’s a nice little sitting area with a fireplace and a big screen TV. There set Matt watching The Weather Channel. This was a day or two before we got that pretty good snow this year so I went over and sat next to him and I asked…. “what do you think about the snow, Matt?” he replied…… “looks like it’s gonna be cold enough, but they are talking like moisture might be an issue”. Anyway, that encounter was something that I’ve been thinking about the last day or so. I didn’t talk to him after that because he seemed to just disappear from the facility. (he was probably in the hospital and we did not know it). He was in a wheelchair, but his mind was pretty sharp It seemed. Makes me wonder if he might have gotten pneumonia or something like that. I wish I had talked to him more because it bothers me that I might have been the last person he talked about the weather with. Life is too short!!! .

The pattern looks about as boring as can be really unless you're a fan of some pretty chilly temperatures at times with chances for snow showers. Basically we get some milder days with FROPAS and chilly temperatures/snow showers. Any chance to end things with one more solid widespread storm appears pretty nil. Maybe we can at least get a decent warmup to begin April

low 25 overcast

It's quite challenging to entirely wipe the slate clean and not carry past forecasting failures into the next season, as this is something that I have grappled with after busting far too cold/snowy a couple of times during that least +WPO regime. That was definitely on my mind and played a role in the reluctance to fully commit in terms of aligning my temp composites to reflect the pattern that I was so confident would ensue.

I kind of knew that because look how fast the snow is blowing and the trees are barely moving. Scooter can sniff out BS.

It is .damn, deleted

AI slop

It's amazing that some years we struggle to get one single cell in the area the strength of any of those and that's just three days in April. I don't know if you or anyone here has ever searched 2011 pennsylvania tornado on youtube. Several of the tornadoes and storms spoken of the last few days are there on video and no shortage of ones that haven't been brought up or completely forgotten.

I was wrong on that....the stratosphere never really clicked like I thought it would. The attempt the second week of February ended up being a fake-out, which is where we parted ways with 2018....then we ended up succeeding in a reversal in early March, but it wasn't a true SSW and was kind of late, anyway by that point. Disappointing finish to be sure, but I am happy overall with my outlook this year. I do need to fine tune how I develop my temp composites, though bc I wasn't cold enough...I'm still learning how to properly assimilate the role that CC plays in this. I think what I missed is that if the pattern is a dead-ringer for cold, which it was this year, then go nuts...don't water down the composites to account for CC in a generic sense because that is far too reductive a practice that will lead any forecaster astray. It can still get damn-cold, but it's just that the dice are now loaded against that particular outcome in any given region. The trick is to be a skilled and confident enough seasonal forecaster to identify those 1 or 2/10 seasons and go all-in. You can't be non-committal and meek, or else accuracy will suffer. The truth is that I am remiss because I diagnosed this seasonal pattern about as accurately was any accomplished seasonal forecaster ever will, but I never fully committed to it, which was reflected in my temp composites.

haha, i bet. i'd like to experience it at least once in life. also crazy that he's seen an order of magnitude more snow this season than me, in the same state.

Well, JUST missed on the record low, hit 17.0 degrees. BUT I didn't realize until looking at the records again this morning that the 32.0 degrees ties the 'cool max' for the day, tied with 2014 now. Currently 18.2/13.1 with partly cloudy skies at 8 am.

It would appear that the trend we saw since November of the models getting colder as we get closer in time has finally ended this month. Sunday continues to warm on the models. Last week overperformed too

Solidly below normal pattern that's masked by a solidly changing climate

ez under

Looks like AI. I dunno.

17 this morning.

We only bottomed out at 29 this morning due to some cloud cover. Thankfully this cold blast is moving on. Yesterday literally felt like a January day in NY. Back to the mid 80's this weekend. Oh, and btw, it's that green time of the year. Pollen started 2 weeks ago. It's God awful. Probably another 4 weeks of green dust on everything. My allergies are terrible.

Min 15.1° with wind Even too cold in the garage for the plants.

Really? I've seen sun in the morning twice since the cold ended in mid February lol. Cloudy and worthless cold. I hate this month with a passion. When I move up north I'll hate April with a passion lol

Yes I thoroughly enjoyed looking that over. That's what compelled me to post the mcs with eye and the full July 2003 radar. If you watch that July radar, long enough without blinking, it's like playing tetris and pacman at the same time. I thought the mcs with eye was a good storm for a Jns case study. That storm also absolutely rocked the area bty. I don't recall it having the most storm damage in this general area , but it definitely didn't pass over our area quietly either .