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This place is a riot. Goddamn.

Picked up another half inch of fluffy snow last night and another 0.2" this morning. So sparkly. At 17.9" on the season now, DTW at 17.5".

LOL He has other interests, as all of us should/do have.

Negative Nelly.

Flurries here

The mega torch has been perpetually 2 weeks away, some models have the 11th as one of them. Suspiciously 2 weeks after the last forecasted mega torch.

His second most recent post is literally “I’m very optimistic for January”

That's kind of what I'm intuitively thinking. There is a Kelvin wave moving warm water to the central-ENSO-subsurface in the next few weeks, I have found that it does correlate with more +PNA conditions.

Looking ahead to the second half of the month - with a map like this after the ~5 day torch in the near-medium term, Jan might finish a couple degrees AN. But if those last two weeks come to fruition like this, we could have some interesting events to track without the suppression risks. Not the time to bail on this winter just yet.

Counterpoint: People who hate cold can dress warmer, including indoors. People heat intolerant can’t strip to their birthday suit … legally. When in winter dress appropriately if you run cold, I can’t stand people complaining indoors during the winter that the heat isn’t high enough - you have ways to mitigate that I do not in the reverse.

Yep. that Cuban Ridge is there. If they turn out wrong about that we could be setting up pretty good. +TNH works great for us without a SER. Baja or SW Lows pump that Ridge. Without those, there shouldn't be much of an SER. Hopefully guidance is off on those hanging there.

Yes, the pattern is very progressive and volatile. Anything could happen. Before, we’ve seen these 60 degree days turn into snowfalls the next day or two. This could happen here.

The 18z GFS is showing snow this run on the 11th.

Cuz 60 hour NAMS are so accurate . But ya, not expecting anything either.

You already had 14 days….

Lol, there is so much griping on here that the cliff jumpers & Debs missed the 18z GFS showing snow this run on the 11th.

I’d have to agree, having appreciable cold throughout Dec with multiple snow events for the entire north / south extant of the inner and suburban metro is beyond a doubt fantastic. I think I saw some of our Orange county area posters have well into double digit snows (or was it 20+?), LI did well I think, and down here at the ass end I have nearly 10 inches to kick off winter. Short of the big KU event Decembers like 09, 10, and was it 20? - Really have to take your chips and go on this one. January might go bad, or it might perk up toward the back nine - we’ll find out. Then we have another month+ to get our act together, and given the stats on December snow I’ll place my bets this doesn’t rat to close out. I’m thinking good Dec, solid in summation will probably be the tenor come the end of March. And that’s fine in the face of multiple horrid winters this decade. My Dec average was 33.2 with a low max of 10.2.

And yet, since 2020 Phoenix has seen 7 record warm months and Flagstaff has seen 2. Seems relevant to a post specifically about record warm months.

3k looked good

Something weird has happened to me somewhere between turning 50 and 60 plus which I am now. I no longer am just downright sad and in the dumps when the forecasted winter temp is at or above normal. When I was younger I had it really bad, as I'm sure many can identify with. If it was going to be 60 degrees on Christmas or New Years (or heck, not stuck in the 30's all day), I almost couldn't enjoy it. My older, I guess thinner blooded self says, you know, it was really nice being in the 70s on Christmas. If its not going to snow, heck, I almost prefer it being warm. Its real, but doesn't feel right, but, I am embracing it even though I feel dirty. THAT being said, I do still love me some snow, and it got me thinking, is there a correlation between cold and snow (hear me out...). I'm talking climatologically here, over the course of a winter. Seems to me around here its all about timing, rather than if it was wall to wall cold. So my question, and I don't want to just say hey @GaWx jump on this, but..., if you took a random city like Atlanta, or maybe Asheville, since its more likely to get snow there, is there a 100% correlation between a "cold winter" and snowfall amounts, or are you just as likely to get a big snow due to timing, in an otherwise "warm" or neutral winter.

Same here. Was that you on mping near that same location?

Mediocre, but not horrible

12z