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I don’t think met. Eric Webb has been happy with how his abode in NM has done in recent years (since he moved there) based on his posts.

The 12z ECM and 18z GFS (with support from the EPS/GEFS) shows what we fear along the coastal plain. It's a classic cool/rain to cold/dry and then repeat scenario. That's not unexpected or unseasonable for this time of year. But it's been a nuisance for a few years now, including in the heart of winter. So it would be nice to get a complete breakdown of that repetitive sequence inside 7 days. We've had way way too much rain in recent winters. If a more favorable longwave pattern is always out beyond 10 days, it's just a tease.

Pacific Jet has been a relentless monster for the NYC metro area for years.

Is this a permanent change at the Accuweather channel, or did they give all their OCMs Thanksgiving Week off? BTW, windiest day here in awhile. Helped me test my refurbished anemometer.

I won’t speak up for anyone else here, but Sunday fun day has been in effect for me since noonish.

Bonus post....sorry. This is why the LR is a mess in terms of, "What will it do?" On this map, we have many conflicting signals. We have a second tropical-ish system south of the Yucatan, a low east of Hawaii(good), a PNA ridge(good), a cold front crashing eastward (good), a -NAO (not good), a block and a half over Alaska and the Bering Sea( I can't even remember the Bering Sea rules), a -AO(not good), a GOA low(normally not great), a western Atlantic Ridge (WAR), and cold over the interior of Canada(good). I could make a pretty good case that if the "movie is played forward" that this is has the potential to empty a lot of cold into NA and eventually the EC by the second half of December. Again, if any model is going to sniff out a cold shot at this time of year(December), my money is on the GFS. By my count the 18z GFS has (4) cool or cold fronts which make it to the west side of the Apps. And that is it for a bit...I have been watching things today, and wanted to sit on a few model cycles before posting. Plus, it has been a busy weekend.

Hats off to you and your team for putting this together!

Here’s hoping for the best case scenario - current wave propagates east, lays down tracks for warmer surface/subsurface waters for the next mjo wave going well into 8 and 1 in jan/feb, while confining the nina to east based. Could turn out to be a fun winter if that happened. EPS tries to do this, but GEFS has been better with MJO. We shall see

Just wait until the panic room thread goes live.

With 3.4 at -.7C and underwater temps at -2c+, it wouldn't fade too fast imho. But it would hopefully end the typical, overwhelming Niña crap we often see in winter. In any event, if I had a choice, I'd roll the dice with what the Eps is showing.

The last in a flurry of posts...I do like the GFS at this time of year. By mid-late December, I like the Euro better for medium and long range accuracy. The 18z GFS isn't a bad pattern. Maybe keep an eye on the Dec 6 timeframe. For the past several runs, the GFS really wants to lift something out of the Gulf. I have definitely noted over the years that the GFS will often spot a cold outbreak more quickly on the deterministic d10-15.

I respect the effort. It takes a long time doing an analysis on one storm. You did it for 200+ events and manually conducted/plotted an interpolation. That's wild.

I'm kinda at peace with whatever happens this season...my lowest bar is to just make the playoffs. After that I expect us to get the boot right away, and hopefully that'll force a change. We can't go for the SB this year in our current condition. Side note: I learned this week that our O-line coach has been fired 9 times, and all his O-lines got worse, smh Had no idea he had that bad of a track record! Needless to say he won't be back next year, lol

I wasn’t joking though

Sucky offense...defense is what kept us in it.

Nice post man. You know that I agree with this assessment. We've had some good chats about this occasionally in past years. It's a real factor and should be considered into the equation. Having said that. I don't think we should rush to judgement yet on this particular MJO event and I'll try to explain why. This event thus far has been driven to propagate eastward with CCKW's. Which operate due to different circumstances from the MJO and with much faster timescales. Since the beginning of this event really, they've been noticeable in the data and the models. I mentioned this phenomenon in a post here last month I think too. This is still the case on current runs. We've been seeing this alternating constructive and destructive interference cycling through the event as they do. Which is presenting itself as the loops around on the RMM charts we've been seeing. It was slowed, naturally, as it approached the La Nina state in addition to that as well. However, it seems to want to persevere on the longer range guidance. Regular ensemble runs (gefs/eps) don't run out far enough to capture the whole picture. What we've been seeing with those is an amplified trend when there is constructive interference. Mixed with other times where the signal almost vanishes when there is destructive interference from these CCKW's. The latest one is about to constructively interfere, which is offering some boost to the Phase 7 signal upcoming. Some here seem to be under the impression that the phase 8 attempt is within range of the current medium range ensembles. I think that is a mistake. Any signal giving that impression should be the current CCKW continuing to propagate through to the east. So what I think will happen, is that we will see the amplification into phase 7 as guidance is advertising. Followed by a degradation which will be denoted once again with the RMM chart doing a loop with the signal again. IMO the actual attempt for the push into phase 8 comes a little after that. With the next CCKW that should propagate through and is modeled to do so. If guidance is any indication, that should occur close to mid month in December IMO. Outside of the range of current gefs/eps runs. We'll probably see a more ambiguous signal until that time. Much like the later stages of the 12z GEFS posted right below. It could in fact fail and possibly for the reasoning that you've laid out very nicely here. Personally I think the jury is still out for this one, but that they will enter the building around mid December to prepare the verdict. Such as euro (and gefs for that matter) weekly data suggests. Today's euro weekly forecast at the very bottom. Today's Euro weeklies VP200 followed by U850:

About 2 mins of flurries today

Careful, we don’t want the nina to fade too fast. Winters with a nina that quickly fades to neutral by Jan tend to be less snowy than those that fade more slowly.

You joke, but definitely a possibility.

The last week of November actually got colder on the weeklies. And has for several days. Though I know youre concentrating on December. I know the Mid-Atlantic may not like it but those weeklies with the cold to the Nw and warmth to the SE would be a great storm track for the Great Lakes.

Strongly disagree. Apps and websites featuring questionable sourced weather information abound. Local, trusted media and meteorologists are needed now more than ever. Take Windows 11 for example. I get push notifications for Rockville, MD for tomorrow on my work laptop that it's going to be a high of 4° degrees tomorrow. How is this even remotely accurate?

Same here. It’s cute.

i know, right? to my delight i saw the "HOT" thing and i thought we were getting hyped, and then i read about last rites for december in fucking november. wtf are we doing yall?

Im so bummed that the cold in December is already over even though it isn't December yet. Some of these guys are 15 years old or act like it. Makes this place unreadable just like my Vikings are unwatchable.