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I never was a fan of big heat for this week… Granted, I didn’t see smoke being an issue in the day is running up and I never liked the structure of the rise and the way it was collapsing like that. It looked like a one afternoon of heat and then we get bullied south. Having said that even that looks like it stepping off a bit Go wonder models were just over amplified

By Indy, do you mean Indianapolis? I don’t think Indiana ever had daylight savings unless they changed that

As insignificant as it is, it’s nice to finally see at least for the moment a few clouds surviving off the Africa coast.

SPC is clearly hedging off though Words like “unclear“ or pretty good indicators that things aren’t really looking the way they were yesterday and how could they be… Might be about time for them to admit they were just as smoke boned as everybody else’s forecast.

Bust in ME? The main show storms were always going to be late in NNE -- 7pm or later, including ME. Just delayed a bit now, either by smoke reduced max temp or just a bit slower forcing overall. The word "bust" is used *far* too often and early when things do not go *exactly* as fcst.

That stuff really got entrained and concentrated ahead of the front. Surface based stuff may be a loss, but these lapse rates could produce hail all night along with a rogue wind gust.

Jancock unsure

We have had this since about March around here going from 80-85 then accumulating snow the next then back to the low 80s. I would say that is more of a fall feel for this area but here nor there it has been very much back and forth. Setting some record cold lows and highs within the same month. Only thing I have noticed that we are in an increasing el nino state is the lack of tropical activity and the slightest of increase in rainfall over the last 2 months around here. This will ultimately be fun to see what happens with this next subsurface feature. Again that slight distorted look we see in the thermocline is an artifact of the -PDO state still holding. Losing its grip compared to 3 years ago during the last Nino event but still present for now.

Temperatures will soar into the 90s tomorrow and Thursday. The potential exists for a few locations, including Newark to approach or reach 100° at the height of the short period of heat tomorrow. Smoke could hold down the readings by several degrees. Friday will also be very warm before the temperatures ease for the weekend. Showers and thundershowers are possible during the weekend. The greatest risk is Saturday night and Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around July 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.52°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -36.56 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.083 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.7° (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Total last 90? I could look on your station , but would rather not

Front/trough continue advancing south EML shunting south so cap up north so that will help weakening the capping MLCIN all but eroded with values >3000 J/KG Getting activity going...I would think things really begin taking off in the next couple hours. Don't see STP values like this here very often and these may be amongst the highest that would exist in a database if such one existed

Got to 91. I imagine years ago, in the 60s and 70s, things would have been hotter if not for the thick smog and less days with actual clean, clear blue skies.

Now finally storms w/ some meat!

Not kidding ..when the issue came up in 2022 the comments section in the Globe was filled people thinking there was going to be an extra hour of daylight lol

5.61” in June 0.00” in the last 12 days

Never turn you back on an EML in the evening/overnight, esp. when storms fall during the day. This happens countless times in the Plains/Midwest. EML is an EML, doesn't matter where you are.

It's an EML event, and they tend to run later than our normal crappy svr up here. Somebody in VT or NH or ME or all three should get crushed badly later tonight.

Yes. The thing is its not like there have been no storms at all in srn Quebec and NNE so far, so the convective temps has been reached. And those storms that did develop laid down boundaries to provide focus for other storms. I am just surprised the storms that developed have not been supercells b/c the enviroment is primed. Any updraft should rotate quickly, and then mesocyclone feedback makes the updraft stronger, and you get a solid supercell. Look at the SCP and SIGTOR values currently! And the K-index. There is a focused band of 850/700 moisture and obvious boundary near the border. Maybe nocturnal effects such as the strengthening LLJ and BL decoupling need to come into play here. The models clearly showing the 925 and 850 winds ramping up this evening. This happens a lot in the Plains/Midwest and you still get nasty tstms. Tor potential is typically limited though as MCS clusters/lines are more common.

Most . You also had 6-7 “ of rain in June when most had half or less of that . And you had a soaker May and out of drought status

I was out on the Allegany / Garrett county border today, the smoke was definitely noticeable between the ridges.

'97 loses some steam from here over the next month and as you point out, there's another large KW on the way, so would expect these two events to swap positions with respect to max anomaly temps.

Daughter just grabbed a photo of the sun. What the fuck…

My uncle survived a widowmaker heart attack. Happened about 15yrs ago now. He was astute enough to realize something was going on and my aunt called the paramedics. While on trip to the hospital in the ambulance was when it occurred.

Looks like Thursday morning will be rough according to the HRRR. Interestingly it keeps west of the blue ridge/shenandoah shielded from the near surface smoke.