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DT ** ALERT ** 1ST POSSIBLE Coastal LOW of the Season SEPT 23-25 then 1st SERIOUS Cold air Blast SEPT 26-28

DT ** ALERT ** 1ST POSSIBLE Coastal LOW of the Season SEPT 23-25 then 1st SERIOUS Cold air Blast SEPT 26-28

Sounds like you're sufferin'...yeah, I was surprised earlier by what was only a brief light shower up here.

The planetary wave dispersion (terminating warm advection as it washes out into higher latitudes...) I suspect is going to deliver positive flux over the grander time scale of the whole season. This positive anomaly/amount because of the a super-position of the whopper +ENSO over top CC. ..sneaky hinted of that: the negative anomalies over the western Pacific oceanic Basic are not creating a 0 when subtracting those anomalies from the positives associate with the El Nino. This means there is a surplus of thermodynamic sourcing in the Pacific/atmosphere holistic coupling. It's not hurting that the Atlantic "El Nino" is likely going on - currently the MDR is in 3rd historically... But all that is servicing blocking. Post cyclone deaths at 65 N/Ferrel latitudes ... positive heights nodes may materialize and decay, probably along shorter life spans than the "real" intraseasonal blocking events. Blocking can materialize from a different geophysical pathways. But as stronger cyclones curl into their death from mid --> higher latitudes, that warmth/latent transport gets dump into the mid and higher altitudes, and that flux - endemic to this year - may present a positive anomaly response into those regions. hat would transiently look like blocking but won't last long enough for the teleconnector correlation to realize. Probably a great year NAO migraine modeling ...think 'popping off' while in wait of real wave# related variants. If the latter never takes place, I could see this as being faux applied for 'taking credit' for outlooks related to blocking. "right for the wrong reason". 'Sides, I may have this backward at the moment but isn't +AO correlated with the descending solar after a spring--> summer bombardment by active disk? Supposition/conjecture: It would be harder - also - to parse out how much is because of CC/ENSO superposition, vs how much is truly evolved out of the "winter time rendition of the inter -annual circumglobal teleconnector" - it's a summer correlation but I think that's bullshit. It applies, though modulated in why some years have more Asian blocking vs NE Pac vs Greenland ...etc, or not at all... And it has a strong correlation - I believe - with the AAM tendencies.

“Mostly sunny”. Ill just pretend its not effin pouring on me in suffern right now.

There is some validity to that, but it's more useful during cool ENSO. There probably is some statistical connection between very inactive hurricane seasons and poor subsequent winters due to super El Nino.

There will undoubtedly be less MC influence this season relative to 2016.

You don't think +EPO has been historically favored during super El Nino with a huge GOA low?? The seasonal mean will be +EPO, but I think we can have some fleeting periods of cross polar flow.

Low of 39 here in the north this morning. Looks like a terrific day ahead.

I think your thought process is intentionally linear here.....you know damn well how chaotic snowfall is and the bar that year is pretty damn low...I'll take the over.

I did some scarifying and overseeding over Labor Day weekend too, and seeing the same here.

The logic used to be a busier hurricane season favors blocking in the winter. Although that was kind of old school thinking, not sure if that is applicable now.

Eh...I see what you're saying, but ENSO doesn't operate in a vacuum. I get the sample size limitation, but we also need to consider that 3/4 Super El Ninos have occurred during the descending portion of the solar cycle, which is pretty hostile towards sustained high latitude blocking. I don't think that connection between descending solar and super El Nino is a coincidence, either.

1.61" overnight. Tropical out there this morning.

Usually the crickets slow down when it's chilly! On warm nights, they are roaring. My low yesterday was 54 (lowest IMBY since June 9) and this morning was 57. Am enjoying the dps in the 50s for a change. Currently 59 with dp 57.

Was Liam at the end of it?

I feel like Allison would rather not find out....

No need to worry, all we need is someone smart in charge

Shocker.... He favors blocking every season if you go back and read through his stuff. He keeps touting super El Nino as being very disruptive to the PV, but neglects the fact that we are 0-4 in triggering a SSW during a super El Nino. He likes to cherry pick data to suit his agenda...what he doesn't mention is that the portion of the solar cycle (descending) that predisposes the Pacific basin to super El Nino is very hostile to the development of sustained high latitude blocking. He harped on the sea ice pattern over the summer as a factor in the argument for blocking this winter, but failed to mention that it only has predictive value during the easterly phase of the QBO. Needless to say, I'm about as much of a fan of his work as he is of objectivity. That said, they do make for interesting reads and he has some cool graphics.

You wonder if these temps last through January.

fine by me, people need to be reminded that bad consequences result from poor decisions

lawn kicking back into high gear with the cooler weather !