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Polo might be making another run at sub 900 mb. This satellite presentation speaks for itself with intense lightning data around the eyewall.

Rehoboth Beach Cam https://www.visitdebeaches.com/webcams/live-boardwalk-cam-atlantic-sands-hotel-in-rehoboth-beach/

The 0Z Euro ens increased the chance of “tropical cyclone activity” off the Mid-Atlantic coast during the weekend to its highest yet of any run and the highest possible, >90%!

^^^'Cept model guidance has gotten stronger

There's no reason why Long Island shouldn't be under these.

That guy has been trolling these forums for years. I don't know why anybody engages him.

Tampa is desperate to avoid 0-3, so I wouldn’t be shocked if we tripped up this week, but hopefully Murray shows something.

Walking down to the ocean now in Rehoboth to check out conditions as the tide comes in.

OC report: it’s cloudy, breezy, wind advisory for tonight. No rain at least!

All of the NJ coast up to Monmouth County (e.g. NWS Mount Holly's territory) is under a High Wind warning: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=high wind warning

By small amounts ...some more coherent than others, the guidance were too deep/structurally evolved for what is observed at 12z May or may not be indicative of much. We'll see. We may be disappointed in Now-cast ranges. I'm not completely sold on how far above pedestrian inclemency this will be. I think the lunar tides and surface feed-back should be fun either way. Op ed that no one asked for but ... my original impression of this scenario from 2 or 3 days back was that it was dubiously too amplified in the guidance. Two main reasons for suspecting so ... 1, the total S/W wave mechanics feeding into the region were very weak. As far as I can tell that still seems to be the case. At the time this was a bit of a head scratch as to what was driving this ordeal. The best I could surmise was that this was a very (if perhaps unusually so) a non-linearity in origin. The circulation mode from the eastern Pac across N/A is technically in a strong, albeit transient, -PNAP. The polar branch retreated N very quickly, earlier in the week - so fast it left a weakness pearled out from the S Lake through the mid Atlantic.. Similar to a "pinch cut-off" you see in April - but it is doing it amid a higher ambient height medium. You realize, the hydrostats are in the mid 560s during this - we've been close to 90 F at the surface with 566 dm thickness before! Yet, it's so raw.. It's bizarre, maybe some tized aspects going on... Anyway, a ridge from James Bay clear to Florida would be geophysically hard to maintain, particularly when the flow around it is not that strong. So the heights inside 'implode' ... My feel on that is that the models were over assessing this ambient, large scaled mass balancing response, as a total forcer. 2, the other reason is much simpler ... guidance et al tend to shed amplitude as they move events from the extended toward the short lead periods. It's really quite a dependable corrective behavior. It's never been abundantly clear why they do this, but I suspect it has something to do with not yet seeing the emergence of noise/offsets/and interferences that will inexorably arise - they only see the system with the most prominent physical signature out in time. If, then, the prominence is the only thing there is, they are maximizing it. Something like this...

Great shot Steve. Ya that’s looking nice now.

Did people want a separate thread for this storm? High impact for the beaches obviously. Wind and rain for the metro area.

I don't see any High Wind Watches or Warnings for any part of New Jersey at all (which is a crime).

While GRAF is likely overdone, I do think we likely see 75+ mph wind gusts not too far offshore of NJ. https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2103311148711854175

I also read that wrong parts of jersey are in fact in a big wind warning.

Beast

Canaan Valley NWR

Hudson County is still Upton, unfortunately.

That's mount Holy they done good as well as box

Incredible to see all of these at the same time..

Until further notice, Lucy has the football; however, I'm curious how that second week in October is going to pan out. More jet buckles please.