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  2. Ahoff
    Love seeing positive winter outlooks, but this August has been total sh*t, lol. Bastardi put out his winter forecast, not great for us more average, so it'll probably be huge for us, lol.
  3. canderson
    They’re going to hit an extreme stabilized environment prior to the mountains.
  4. Snowedin
    Yeah we need moisture very badly. This is no good for lawns, gardens and those of us with flaky skin. I’m rooting for any tropical systems to move in this direction in the coming weeks!
  5. BxEngine
    Poured on me in Aruba today. Cant escape the damn rain.
  6. Snowedin
    See y’all again Christmas Eve!
  7. midatlanticweather
    This storm popped up in Purcellville is dumping rain!! Man! Lots of water being rung out.
  8. Damage In Tolland
    New Hampshire is on fire . Stein taking over again
  9. aldie 22
    Looking at that line die a little in the middle gives me Stephens City vibes
  10. yoda
    Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 522 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 DCZ001-MDZ013-016-504-VAZ053>057-506-526-527-170530- /O.EXB.KLWX.FA.A.0015.260816T2300Z-260817T0700Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford- Spotsylvania-King George-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 522 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of Maryland, including the following areas, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles and Prince Georges, and Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, King George, Northwest Prince William, Spotsylvania and Stafford. * WHEN...Until 3 AM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through the Watch area this evening through the first half of the night. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected, with localized totals of 2 to 4 inches where training or backbuilding occurs. Some instances of flooding are expected to occur, especially in urban areas that receive multiple rounds of storms. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
  11. BlizzardNole
    Man did my area get cut down. Forecast went from 0.5 to 0.75 for today and tonight to just 0.25 to 0.5 for tonight after nothing today. Oh well I guess the all day thick overcast killed it
  12. NorthHillsWx
    No rain in 15 days here
  13. mitchnick
    Mts seem to be beating the line up a bit.
  14. vortex95
    That sharp CAPE gradient (attached) the modeled show ydy has verified well. Notice IAD has 74 Td and HEF 76 Td but DCA 69. 925 mb Td gradient evident as well (also attached). No PWAT gradient though, bull's-eye 2.2+ centered right over DC metro! The cells forming ahead of the line, have to watch those when they cross this gradient as storm boundary interaction is often key for svr/tor. Also, if the gust front fans out well ahead of the line, how will that affect the Td and CAPE gradient? Bodily push it E? Bow echo often ride parallel to boundaries, but slamming into it perpendicularly? I don't know.
  15. weatherbo
    Stayed in the upper 60's all day w/ some drizzle and fog from time to time. Seasonal weather this week with the possibility of a sneaky cool night Wednesday. Point is already 45.
  16. mitchnick
    That question has been tossed around for weeks over in the main El Niño thread. I think we in the MA have started to see it with increased precip over the last month, but there's no evidence of it yet on a larger scale. Rest assured, it's coming...for better or worse.
  17. Terpeast
    Mostly in the southern hemipshere, STJ down there is insane. We’re not quite there yet in the NH but should couple better in the next few months as it cools.
  18. yoda
    Some small storms beginning to fire ahead of the line
  19. Today
  20. yoda
    Might see a few quick weak spin ups as the line interacts with the retreating WF
  21. Eskimo Joe
    This line is booking east. Latest warnings from Sterling have movement at 50 mph.
  22. Mrs.J
    Finally! It has been nice to see green and not brown. Yep I at .62” as of now.
  23. vortex95
    Wow, RRFS not as good for CAD? Given its 3 km resolution (same as NAM Nest) and the RRFS has 65 vertical layers compared to the NAMs 60, that seems odd. Lowest RRFS layer is 8 m "to better capture surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) dynamics."
  24. vortex95
    Well, since you posted it @yoda, that gives me an excuse to comment! And it is not merely a rant, it is food for thought. It is a bit odd b/c there is a SVR out now for the county, which was highly likely to begin w/. The SPS are typically reserved for non-svr storms for heavy rain and LTG risk. Also, whether the CG lightning is frequent or not is or should be irrelevant. The risk is still there regardless. So it is superfluous wording really. And "frequent" definition for lightning is questionable as it pertains to wx IMHO. In a METAR, lightning is considered frequent 1 to 6 flashes per min. Is 1-2 per min really "frequent?" And "continuous" is more than 6 flashes per minute. That not what "continuous" really means by its actual definition. It can and does get far more than 6 flashes per min (200 per min at times) enough in many parts of the county often enough that it can clearly be quantified better. How things are said/worded and their context are important. It is what IDSS is all about.
  25. wxmeddler
    The SPC is creating a new Mesoanalysis based on a HRRR DA system. There was a recent SLS presentation about it. No idea! I asked about this specifically in a Q/A... and they provided a written answer! "The NAM is known to perform well for cold-air damming events. A comprehensive assessment of the RRFS’s ability to capture cold air damming events has not been conducted. However, subjective assessments indicate that it likely does not perform as well as the NAM for this phenomenon. This is a development priority for future releases."
  26. Itstrainingtime
    I dunno - that is one vicious line moving through western PA. TOR warned as well. It should weaken some I would think but it's hard to believe we don't get some rain at the very least from it.
  27. Weather Will
    Severe thunderstorm watch until 11 for western and central areas:
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