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Someone needs to take the GFS out back and put it down like old yeller

Only a 3000 mile difference between 12z and 18z. Consistent!

DT says La Nina isn't going to be a major factor this winter, though.

A fresh shot of cool air is now overspreading the region. Parts of the region could experience their coolest temperatures so far this fall tomorrow and Friday morning. Dry conditions will likely prevail through the remainder of the week. Milder air should begin to return during the weekend. In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was -3.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.731 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.7° (0.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Decent sunset tonight.

It’s much smarter than last year, but there are definitely some trees that are fire around Greenfield.

I've been quite happy seeing the extra moisture this October. A lot of big systems (Lows) are forecast by NE Asia for a while, that's typically consistent with big systems moving through the SW at a 17-21 lead time this time of year. So I do see some support already for an active November. That's implied to some extent with the ACE to ABQ cold day correlation as well. I could easily be completely wrong about the winter, but its hard to see a warm winter nationally - I could see it regionally (SE/SW, or both). Serious question - I haven't looked - if you did a difference in proportions test for seasons without a US hurricane hit v. with a US hurricane hit, aren't the seasons without a hurricane hit far colder, or more frequently colder at least? I can't think of many winters following no US hurricane landfall in the US that are very warm, and consistently so.

We’ve been in stick season for about two weeks already.

Trending up with our first wound up system of the fall this weekend. Should be a good combo of wind and rain

I feel like leaves are about 2-3 weeks ahead of normal. The oaks will be bare before Halloween here.

Clouds like to hang around the Catoctin's on the tail end of systems as residual energy moves through, regardless of whether it's a dry front or not.

+correlation. Dec and March are about 60% probability of the same NAO state as November, January is 50% and February is 52%.

How does a cold November with -AO/NAO correlate to winter?

Agree. That favors a +NAO as most here know. If something shakes up that area and it cools drastically then things could be different.

My guess would be some kind of cambium damage runnig up the tree and some black mold growing in the crevice. Is the base of that tree actually two trees that merged?

Sunday should be even warmer

That's good. Dry out some of these fallen leaves to make it easier to clean up. I need a warm day Saturday, dry would be a bonus.

wow my sister was born 12/29

Walt we had about an inch of snow here on Long Island on the final day of the storm when it stalled again, this time near Cape Cod

December's storm had historic storm surge and had far more impact than that socalled Superstorm in March.

This has about the same chance of happening as the Mets winning the WS

I think it's better if the rains are spaced out by at least a week. It rained for 4 days here. I like frontal passages for NJ, you'll get most of the rain there, they dry out when they get to Long Island. Best for both lol.

With the 660hr cfs having the same accuracy as 360hr gfs, seems reasonable. Maybe we should be conservative and wait until it's under 500hrs on the cfs and the 384hr gfs extrapolates properly.

he also doesn't think 1993 was all that hot lol we lived through 1993 we know exactly how hot it was

this is okay, NJ gets more rain from frontal passages than we do anyway we get the most rain from coastal storms they get the most rain from cutters and frontal passages.