All Activity

That somehow did not turn out to be a clown

11/17/25 MJO forecasts: 1) 11/17/25 GEFS backtracked to ~2 days slower from yesterday’s slightly more progressive/weaker run to being nearly identical to the more lethargic and stronger run of 11/15 (not what I wanted to see): GEFS 11/17: stronger/less progressive vs GEFS 11/16 and close to GEFS 11/15 GEFS 11/16: was slightly more progressive/weaker than GEFS 11/15 GEFS 11/15: ————— 2) However, 11/17/25 EPS remains similar to yesterday’s slightly more progressive run and continues to be a good bit more progressive/weaker than GEFS, two things I like: 11/17 EPS: similar to 11/16 EPS and more progressive/weaker than 11/17 GEFS 11/16 EPS: slightly more progressive than 11/15 EPS 11/15 EPS:

Good ol Nina

One of the rare times backside snow worked out around here. Had about 8-9 inches of cement from that one here...

15 day change

#1 for this date all time and with lots more on the way, not even close… .

That was really my only time in Long Beach when a .50 of rain with thunder and low 40s ever transitioned into greater than a 6” snowstorm.

A true trace, same here....the black pool cover looks like it has salt sprinkled on it. The younger kids were excited

BWI: 31.2 DCA: 24.3 IAD: 27.8 RIC: 18.1 SBY: 12.5

Records: Highs: EWR: 71 (1953) NYC: 71 (1953) LGA: 72 (1953) JFK: 64 (2006) Lows: EWR: 18 (1933) NYC: 19 (1933) LGA: 27 (1959) JFK: 26 (1959) Historical: 1869 - Southwest winds of hurricane force swept the Berkshire and Green Mountains of New England causing extensive forest and structural damage. (David Ludlum) 1894: The temperature at Oklahoma City, OK fell to 9°, establishing their coldest reading for so early in the season. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1927 - A tornado cut a seventeen mile path across Alexandria and southeastern Washington, DC, injuring 31 persons. The tornado struck the Naval Air Station where a wind gust of 93 mph was recorded. A waterspout was seen over the Potomac River ninety minutes later. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1927: A tornado (at times to 260 yards wide) cut a seventeen-mile path through Alexandria, Virginia across the District of Columbia from the Navy yard to Benning Rd. & 19th St. NE and Northeast to East Riverdale, Maryland. This storm injured 31 people. The tornado struck the Naval Air Station where a wind gust of 93 mph was recorded. 1933: A cold wave dropped the minimum temperature to 17 °F in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1953 - The temperature at Minneapolis, MN, reached 71 degrees, their warmest reading of record for so late in the autumn. (The Weather Channel) 1955: An early season cold snap finally came to an end throughout Montana. Helena, MT experienced 138 consecutive hours of subzero temperatures, including a record low of -16°. Other locations from the Northwest to the southern Plains reporting record lows for the date included: Havre, MT: -26°, Sheridan, WY: -13°, Rapid City, SD: -5°, Billings, MT: -6°, Denver, CO: 5°, Spokane, WA: 9°, TX: 23°-Tied, Dallas (DFW), TX: 26°, Dallas, TX: 29°-Tied. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1958: A deep upper level trough covered most of the west bringing record low temperatures. Bishop, CA recorded a low temperature of 5° which is the coldest November reading ever. This also broke their previous record by 11°. It was 10° in Idyllwild, CA tying their lowest temperature on record for November. Other record low temperatures for the date included: Alamosa, CO: -10°, Casper, WY: -9°, Flagstaff, AZ: -8°, Reno, NV: 1°, Burns, OR: 4°, Tucson, AZ: 24°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1959: The most severe November cold wave in U.S. history was in progress. Many locations from the Plains to the Appalachians reported record low temperatures: Williston, ND: -10°, Rapid City, SD: -9°, Duluth, MN: -9°, Aberdeen, SD: -8°, Sioux Falls, SD: -7°, St. Cloud, MN: -6°, Sioux City, IA: -4°, Rochester, MN: -4°, Waterloo, IA: -3°, Grand Island, NE: -2°, Scottsbluff, NE: -2°, Des Moines, IA: -2°, Madison, WI: -1°, Marquette, MI: -1°, Green Bay, WI: 0°, La Crosse, WI: 0°, Rockford, IL: 0°, Milwaukee, WI: 1°, Houghton Lake, MI: 1°, Chicago, IL: 3°, Peoria, IL: 3°, Columbia, MO: 4°, Springfield, MO: 4°, Springfield, IL: 4°, Indianapolis, IN: 4°, South Bend, IN: 4°, Ste. St. Marie, MI: 4°, Lincoln, NE: 5°, Topeka, KS: 5°, St. Louis, MO: 6°, Fort Wayne, IN: 6°, Kansas City, MO: 7°, Lansing, MI: 7°, Wichita, KS: 8°, Grand Rapids, MI: 9°, Dayton, OH: 9°, Lubbock, TX: 10°, Evansville, IN: 10°, Cincinnati, OH: 10°, Toledo, OH: 10°, Tulsa, OK: 11°, Pittsburgh, PA: 11°, Lexington, KY: 12°, Paducah, KY: 12°, Detroit, MI: 13°, Columbus, OH: 13°, Louisville, KY: 13°, Buffalo, NY: 13° ,Cleveland, OH: 14° , Wichita Falls, TX: 15°, Rochester, NY: 15° -Tied, Charleston, WV: 16°, Huntington, WV: 16° -Tied, Abilene, TX: 17°, Nashville, TN: 18°, Dallas (DFW), TX: 20°, San Angelo, TX: 20°, Bristol, TN: 20°, Dallas, TX: 21°, Oak Ridge, TN: 24°, Waco, TX: 25°, Austin, TX: 28°, San Antonio, TX: 30°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - A storm in the Rockies produced 21 inches of snow at the Monarch ski resort in Colorado, with 14 inches reported at Steamboat Springs CO. Early morning thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. drenched Mary Esther FL with 4.43 inches of rain. Gale force winds over the Great Lakes Region gusted to 49 mph at Johnstown PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Another in a series of storms brought heavy snow to the mountains of the western U.S. Totals ranged up to 17 inches at Bob Scott Summit in Nevada. Winds around Reno NV gusted to 80 mph. The Alta and Sundance ski resorts in Utah received 14 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Freezing temperatures overspread the southeastern U.S. in the wake of the severe weather outbreak of the previous two days. Eight cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Gilbert AR with a reading of 8 degrees. A fast moving storm blanketed the Great Lakes Region and Upper Ohio Valley with snow during the night. Totals ranged up to 12 inches at Pellston MI and Little Valley NY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2008: Santa Ana winds blew across southern California courtesy of high pressure across the Great Basin. Winds gusted over 70 mph in the Santa Ana Mountains and over 60 mph in the northern Inland Empire. The Freeway Complex Fire burned from Corona through Chino Hills and Yorba Linda. This fire destroyed or damaged over 300 homes and four businesses. More than 30,000 acres burned and more than 40,000 evacuated. The ridge was responsible for record high temperatures including: Downtown Los Angeles, CA: 91°, Phoenix, AZ: 87°, Tucson, AZ: 87°, Bakersfield, CA: 84°, Hanford, CA: 82°, Merced, CA: 82°, Fresno, CA: 81°, Las Vegas,NV: 81°, Madera, CA: 80°, Bishop, CA: 77°, San Francisco, VA: 73°-Tied, Eugene, OR: 70°-Tied, Ely, NV: 69°-Tied and Quillayute, WA: 60°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2013: An unusually powerful storm system spun up five dozen tornadoes from the Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley. Two EF4 twisters struck Illinois, hitting the communities of Washington and New Minden. 2014: As of the midday hours on Tuesday Nov. 18th, an unofficial snowfall measurement of 60 inches has been recorded in the past 24 hours in Lackawanna, New York, just south of Buffalo. However, snowfall of 4 feet or more has been observed in some of the south towns. Depending on the investigation of snowfall measurement activities, and if the intense snow continues through the evening Tuesday, there is a chance the 24-hour United States snowfall record may fall. That official record belongs to Silver Lake, Colorado, with 76 inches, spanning April 14-15, 1921. A report of snowfall of 77 inches in 24 hours at Montague, New York, was thrown out by officials from January 1997. Snowfall measurement of 60 inches just south of Buffalo, NY

ENSO Region 1+2 has see a recent, fairly sharp cooling. This decline is in line with the ECMWF Seasonal Forecast from November 1. As a result, the development provides a measure of confidence that its forecast is on track at this point.

Looking ahead: Appended CPC week 3-4 from this past Friday... and the 11/16 ECMWF EPS from ecmwf.int charts seems to continue the trend to chilling northern USA in December and a storm track extending from the Oh Valley into our area. Could be too warm for snow in CP but I'll go with the standard first date of measurable in CP week two of Dec. That would mean maybe advisory snow-ice for the I84 corridor? LOOOOONG ways off so am only monitoring - not counting on much and skill beyond 10 days is limited, at best. 00z/17 global ensembles that we tend to use are not favorable for snowfall prior to Dec 2, excepting possibly the CMCE. In the meantime eduggs is onto it for overnight tomorrow night as an absorbed but still coherent short wave exits the mid Atlantic coast. No thread fr the subforum at this time nor expected---too limited on areal col erase and sfc/profile temps marginal. Regarding the next advisory wind event... not yet a certainty but a definite possibility between 11/29-12/2.

40 / 24 off a low of 33. The next few weeks looks like a swing 11/17 - 11/29 : Overall warmer than normal ridging into the east - mainly dry, a few days much above normal 11/20-21 , 11/26-29 period 11/30 - beyond: change turning much colder - trough into the east - colder nationwide - first storms/snow of the season

less breezy but still blowing down here

Christmas 2002 was awesome. Totally out of the blue 6-8” in a few hours mostly with the closed ULL wraparound. I think the forecast was 1-3” but the low closed off in a great spot and the snow wrapped around from upstate NY.

Ok. Golf season ended yesterday. It can snow now.

32 degrees and sunny. So far not much wind.

That's awesome - the snow really was excellent. Looks like you were over by the Nose!

That was the greatest comeback winter on record for multiple reasons. First, 01-02 was essentially a year without a winter. 3.5” of snow and a 41.5° average winter temperature. Second, the Christmas Day storm started with heavy thunderstorms and low 40s during the morning. Then my only 8” Christmas Day snowstorm in the evening for the greatest Christmas Day comeback of all-time. So a winter average of 31.2” and close to 50” of snow on the season.

Closing out my comments on this thread... PNS OKX this morning. Wont surprise a couple gusts 46 MPH today but not like yesterday afternoon-evening. Added PHI PNS at 754AM NOUS41 KOKX 171154 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-172354- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 654 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...HIGHEST WIND GUST REPORTS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS... Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Bridgeport Airport 52 MPH 0100 PM 11/16 ASOS ...Middlesex County... Middletown - Rt9nb - On Ramp 40 MPH 0129 PM 11/16 MESOWEST ...New Haven County... Bethany 55 MPH 0115 PM 11/16 CWOP Stony Creek 54 MPH 0355 PM 11/16 CWOP New Haven Airport 44 MPH 0340 PM 11/16 ASOS Lighthouse Point 43 MPH 0601 PM 11/16 WXFLOW ...New London County... Groton Airport 43 MPH 0246 PM 11/16 ASOS ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Teterboro Airport 46 MPH 0520 PM 11/16 ASOS ...Essex County... Caldwell 47 MPH 1150 AM 11/16 ASOS ...Hudson County... Bayonne 41 MPH 0542 PM 11/16 WXFLOW ...Union County... Newark Airport 54 MPH 0301 PM 11/16 ASOS Linden Airport 41 MPH 1155 AM 11/16 AWOS ...New York... ...Bronx County... Fordham 44 MPH 1140 AM 11/16 NYSM ...Kings County... Brooklyn College 55 MPH 0320 PM 11/16 NYSM South Slope 51 MPH 1232 PM 11/16 CWOP ...Nassau County... Bayville 58 MPH 0406 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Massapequa Park 51 MPH 0600 PM 11/16 CWOP Wantagh 47 MPH 0735 PM 11/16 NYSM ...New York (Manhattan) County... Midtown Manhattan 47 MPH 0235 PM 11/16 NYSM ...Orange County... Otisville 48 MPH 1155 AM 11/16 NYSM Stewart Airport 46 MPH 0145 PM 11/16 AWOS Montgomery Airport 46 MPH 0334 PM 11/16 AWOS Warwick 45 MPH 0115 PM 11/16 NYSM ...Putnam County... Brewster 41 MPH 0410 PM 11/16 NYSM Patterson 41 MPH 0525 PM 11/16 DAVIS ...Queens County... NYC/JFK Airport 53 MPH 0541 PM 11/16 ASOS NYC/La Guardia 50 MPH 0601 PM 11/16 ASOS Kew Garden Hills 47 MPH 0320 PM 11/16 NYSM ...Richmond County... 2 SE Elizabeth 45 MPH 1118 AM 11/16 NDBC College of Staten Island 43 MPH 1120 AM 11/16 NYSM ...Rockland County... Suffern 40 MPH 0350 PM 11/16 NYSM ...Suffolk County... Eatons Neck 60 MPH 0613 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Baiting Hollow 55 MPH 0414 PM 11/16 CWOP Islip Airport 55 MPH 0643 PM 11/16 ASOS Shoreham 53 MPH 0635 PM 11/16 DAVIS Shirley Airport 51 MPH 0709 PM 11/16 ASOS Southold 50 MPH 0510 PM 11/16 CWOP Westhampton Airport 49 MPH 1202 PM 11/16 ASOS Great Gull Island 49 MPH 1248 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Farmingdale Airport 47 MPH 1230 PM 11/16 ASOS Fire Island CG 47 MPH 0655 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Great South Bay 44 MPH 0352 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Blue Point 44 MPH 0734 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Orient 43 MPH 1250 PM 11/16 CWOP Montauk Airport 43 MPH 0407 PM 11/16 ASOS Brookhaven 43 MPH 0645 PM 11/16 CWOP West Gilgo Beach 43 MPH 0805 PM 11/16 CWOP Fishers Island Airport 42 MPH 0221 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Mecox Bay 42 MPH 0618 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Ridge 42 MPH 0138 AM 11/17 CWOP Southold 41 MPH 0540 PM 11/16 NYSM East Moriches CG 40 MPH 0155 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Stony Brook 40 MPH 0812 PM 11/16 CWOP ...Westchester County... White Plains Airport 55 MPH 0420 PM 11/16 ASOS Tappan Zee Light 14 53 MPH 0524 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Croton 43 MPH 1033 AM 11/16 WXFLOW ...Maritime Stations... ...Connecticut... Stongington Outer Breakwater 51 MPH 0237 PM 11/16 WXFLOW 1 ESE Norwalk 49 MPH 0107 PM 11/16 WXFLOW USCG Academy 41 MPH 0214 PM 11/16 WXFLOW ...New Jersey... Jersey City 41 MPH 0538 PM 11/16 CWOP ...New York... 15 S Atlantic Beach 54 MPH 1250 AM 11/17 NDBC Robbins Reef, NJ 52 MPH 1048 AM 11/16 NOS-PORTS 26 SSE Robert Moses State Pa 51 MPH 0740 PM 11/16 NDBC Northport 49 MPH 0605 PM 11/16 DAVIS Point O Woods YC 49 MPH 0602 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Larchmont Harbor 48 MPH 0317 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Shinnecock 48 MPH 0200 PM 11/16 WXFLOW 15 S Atlantic Beach 47 MPH 0440 PM 11/16 NDBC Kings Point 44 MPH 0536 PM 11/16 NOS-NWLON Fire Island CG 44 MPH 0651 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Manhattan Dwntwn 41 MPH 1018 AM 11/16 AWOS && From Mt Holly near our subforum issued just before 3AM today. ..Hunterdon County... Pittstown 45 MPH 1120 AM 11/16 NJWXNET Readington 43 MPH 0219 PM 11/16 AWOS ...Mercer County... Trenton 52 MPH 0423 PM 11/16 ASOS ...Middlesex County... Perth Amboy 58 MPH 0449 PM 11/16 WXFLOW ...Monmouth County... 1.0 NW Keansburg 53 MPH 1051 AM 11/16 HADS SEA BRIGHT 47 MPH 1058 AM 11/16 CWOP Belmar Farmdale 44 MPH 0215 PM 11/16 AWOS Sea Girt 43 MPH 0520 PM 11/16 NJWXNET Monmouth 42 MPH 1047 AM 11/16 WXFLOW Cream Ridge 41 MPH 0120 PM 11/16 NJWXNET Oceanport 41 MPH 0520 PM 11/16 NJWXNET ...Morris County... Morristown 43 MPH 0245 PM 11/16 AWOS Pequannock Twp High School 41 MPH 1216 PM 11/16 MESOWEST ...Ocean County... 1 SSW Seaside Park 54 MPH 1114 AM 11/16 Public 3 N Barnegat Light 52 MPH 1024 AM 11/16 Public Mantoloking 51 MPH 1046 AM 11/16 WXFLOW Rutgers 49 MPH 0107 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Beach Haven 49 MPH 0641 PM 11/16 CWOP Ocean Gate 47 MPH 1109 AM 11/16 Public Harvey Cedars 47 MPH 0105 PM 11/16 NJWXNET Toms River 46 MPH 1202 PM 11/16 AWOS Seaside Heights 45 MPH 1020 AM 11/16 NJWXNET 1 E Toms River 45 MPH 1119 AM 11/16 Public Trixies 45 MPH 1135 AM 11/16 WXFLOW Tuckerton 44 MPH 0111 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Toms River 43 MPH 0155 PM 11/16 DAVIS Seaside Heights 42 MPH 1229 PM 11/16 WXFLOW Tuckerton 42 MPH 0909 PM 11/16 HADS Berkeley Twp. 41 MPH 1120 AM 11/16 NJWXNET South Seaside Park 40 MPH 0109 PM 11/16 CWOP ...Salem County... Mannington Twp. 41 MPH 0140 PM 11/16 NJWXNET ...Somerset County... Somerville 48 MPH 0430 PM 11/16 ASOS ...Sussex County... High Point Monument 54 MPH 0505 PM 11/16 NJWXNET 2 N Hardyston Twp 47 MPH 0145 PM 11/16 AWS Sussex 45 MPH 0153 PM 11/16 ASOS LAFAYETTE 43 MPH 0220 PM 11/16 CWOP ...Warren County... Stewartsville 47 MPH 1220 PM 11/16 NJWXNET ...Pennsylvania... ...Berks County... Reading 53 MPH 1158 AM 11/16 ASOS 2 WSW Hamburg 52 MPH 0325 PM 11/16 PADOT Hopewell 47 MPH 1143 AM 11/16 RAWS 1 SSW Mount Penn 45 MPH 1125 AM 11/16 PADOT LENHARTSVILLE 45 MPH 1230 PM 11/16 CWOP Sinking Spring 44 MPH 1023 AM 11/16 CWOP Kutztown Area Middle School 40 MPH 0130 PM 11/16 MESOWEST ...Bucks County... Doylestown 46 MPH 0113 PM 11/16 ASOS Newbold NOS 42 MPH 1030 AM 11/16 NOS-PORTS ...Carbon County... Lehighton 42 MPH 1125 AM 11/16 CWOP ...Chester County... White Clay Creek West Grove- 52 MPH 0445 PM 11/16 DEOS2 Kimberton 46 MPH 1130 AM 11/16 DAVIS Coatesville 45 MPH 0215 PM 11/16 AWOS 1 ESE West Sadsbury Twp 42 MPH 0150 PM 11/16 PADOT Cochranville 42 MPH 0342 PM 11/16 CWOP Red Clay Creek Kennett Squar 41 MPH 1135 AM 11/16 DEOS2 West Chester 41 MPH 1235 PM 11/16 AWOS WEST BRANDYWINE 40 MPH 0115 PM 11/16 CWOP ...Delaware County... Upper Chichester 42 MPH 0145 PM 11/16 CWOP ...Lehigh County... Lehigh Valley Intl Airport 58 MPH 1133 AM 11/16 ASOS Queen City 46 MPH 1215 PM 11/16 AWOS Macungie 43 MPH 0920 AM 11/16 CWOP Trexler 40 MPH 0143 PM 11/16 RAWS ...Monroe County... Mt. Pocono 55 MPH 1057 PM 11/16 ASOS Wind Gap 44 MPH 0425 PM 11/16 PADOT ...Montgomery County... 1 SE Fort Washington 51 MPH 1250 PM 11/16 PADOT Pottstown 44 MPH 1202 PM 11/16 ASOS Willow Grove 42 MPH 1100 AM 11/16 CWOP ...Northampton County... CATASAUQUA 43 MPH 0453 PM 11/16 CWOP ...Philadelphia County... 1 SSE South Philadelphia 54 MPH 0310 PM 11/16 PADOT Philadelphia International A 50 MPH 0138 PM 11/16 ASOS Philadelphia Northeast 50 MPH 0240 PM 11/16 ASOS Philadelphia 42 MPH 1115 AM 11/16 CWOP &&

Yes, I do expect a +PNA month of January.

Woke up to the first coating of snow on the season this morning! Coating may be too strong of a word though...maybe a sprinkle of snow...like loading mashed potatoes up with salt

Yeah it's def been running warm.

No idea. I never look at 45 day snow maps lol.

Around 10:45pm last night had a sleet/snow shower.