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18z GFS…HP looks a tad stronger at 60

(Ahem...@ravensrule???) OK, sorry for the banter, but couldn't resist! But saying something on topic, yeah it hopefully is a good sign with that closed low "opening" a bit and perhaps pushing more east?

Aigfs with a nice bump north

Phases much earlier than any GFS run, even the great 6z and 0z

Bring us home

The GFS should be better this run. It’s ejecting the Southern energy faster and the Northern piece is a hair slower and further West.

I think the GFS is going to come out a bit more amped. HP isn't pushing as far south through 60 hrs

This feels like watching a slow motion car wreck you knew was gonna happen…

Actually its slightly north

I am currently going 1-2 inches of snow for southern wake and then a good amount of sleet and fzra on top. Still very concerned with too much mixing for wake. EPS only gives 60 percent chance of 3 inches for Raleigh. .

Wave is open and moving more easter

I like better rubs

I have that trademarked--that'll be $5 in lunch money please

Gfs is coming around. Closed low unclosing and ns is digging further back in BC. Should be a better run (not saying much lol)

@Gawx Thoughts:

18z gfs a bit quicker with the San Diego energy, stabbing westward into Alberta with northern stream. Thru 48hrs.

Baja blast low less closed off hr 51

Appears to be late Saturday evening on ICON

Seems like it which is always a great sign. I’m getting pretty excited, but still holding back expectations until 00z Thursday. Like the trends so far.

GFS looking better out west with the baja wave...further east at 66

My mental response: THEY aren’t saying shit. Your dumbass app is saying 24”. I wouldn’t say any amounts to normies right now. WTOP just said “at least 1-4” for areas SW of DC.” Like I totally get being conservative, but any amounts looks pretty dumb right now! If I HAD to make a forecast right now, it would be a lot more than 1-4”!

OK...come on, GFS...go back to what you were showing at 00Z/06Z.

Idk, looks further north to me

Yeah I try to urge people to give forecasters some grace because trying to get it right is much more difficult than they know, that the atmosphere is complex, and that sometimes weather does whatever the heck it wants, lol Mets are using their expertise to make the best prediction possible!

I"m not sure why they don't adjust it....they have the ability to manually augment the precip if they think under catching is occurring. I agree those are definitely incorrect precip totals.