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And that’s why that duef is 5 posted. Nothing but absolute nonsense constantly…nothing but worthless posts.

It's the mother land for snow lovers. The prices up there for property are insanely cheap. I'm looking for at least 10 acres. One of the places I'm looking is 28 acres. I want snowmobile/hiking trails on my own property. I'm going to transfer my business up there and add a snow removal side to it. My dream of having my own homestead that gets nuked with snow every winter is coming true. Hard work and risks makes dreams come true. I talked to a long time local when I was up there. The worst winter he ever say only dropped 180". The worst was well beyond 400". They always do good. They get storms and they have the lake machine. The elevation on the upper Tug is around 2k feet. I noticed it's about 10 degrees colder on the Tug then at the level of the 81 corridor. Sorry for banter lol. Mods please move.

27 / 13 off a low of 17 here. Mid upper 30s today and likely the lowest of the next 8-9 days. Back to the mid / upper 40s Saturday for the warmest spots and perhaps the first 50+ on Tuesday since Jan 22/11th. Ridge pushes into the east with the warmest temps south and west but still riding above avg as a whole for the preriod 2/14 - 2/21. Storm #3 misses 2/15-2/16. It Does look to turn a bit more active by the 20th - the 28th and with cold lingering nearby could spell some sloppy mixes or sneaky re-whitening.

You'll like this. My professor last night posted a video discussion relating the assessment of teleconnections to medium-range forecasting and using teleconnections to help weed through models to sort of help differentiate the more likely from least likely solutions. He looked at some guidance over the past week...first using guidance from last weekend and comparing their evolutions and whether any made sense given the teleconnection background. This really made me think of your post yesterday when you stated you're not sure why some don't use teleconnections and it's absolutely true. Understanding the current background state and what may influences the structural changes moving forward can give one an added confidence boost in how the medium range may evolve, even when their is high model uncertainty. Having strong fundamentals in this can help a forecast weed out the least likely guidance from the more likely guidance. This is kind of like generating an ensemble in ones mind because you can take the guidance which seems most likely and bundle together in a sense

BUST

Sunny with highs near freezing today. We then turn a bit milder over the weekend with highs near average not too far from 40 degrees. A slight chance of some light snow by Sunday night before a nice warm-up toward the middle of next week. We will see highs well into the 40's. Rain chances increase again by Wednesday and we will trend colder again by next weekend.

Sunny with highs near freezing today. We then turn a bit milder over the weekend with highs near average not too far from 40 degrees. A slight chance of some light snow by Sunday night before a nice warm-up toward the middle of next week. We will see highs well into the 40's. Rain chances increase again by Wednesday and we will trend colder again by next weekend.

Jealous, I've chased LES events there and its a wonderland... should be fun. Wonder how they statistically do in ninos up there?

That would absolutely be a wild card but I think its more likely the TPV is going to end up on the other side of the hemisphere

Yup...once you get into about mid February through mid March the swings can be pretty enormous. It's unlikely any one pattern regime truly dominates for more than several days just because of the changes which are going on within the hemisphere. In terms of temperatures and next week, I think its a very difficult signal. I think overall, the AO/NAO/PNA structure point towards more average to slightly above average...but that isn't a bad thing when talking about the potential for an increasingly active pattern. Some of our best snows and stretches come in that sort of regime.

I want to make it known just how rare these past 19 days have been. KMDT has had snow on the ground since 1/25. Adding up snow depths we get 111" or an average of 5.84"; but never more than 9". When looking at the past In the last 126 years of data, this specific "steady but deep" condition has only occurred in 4 winter seasons: ​1905 ​1925 ​1961 ​1968 Usually to get to 19 days requires a big boy storm. This has been a throwback winter in a way. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I don't have that confidence. So much snow around. Arctic invasion with TPV seems likely.

I've personally found that those Feb and Mar and even Apr big heat bombs that took place since 2016 with interestingly increased frequency (a separate climate discussion), seemed to be prologue to a negative NAO over the western limb of the index. Random memory while on the subject... This also took place in October of 2011, with a mid month 4-day static period of 75ish afternoons, even crispy CU towers sometimes on the sunset horizons. Then, in the 20+s of that month, the the western NAO plummets. Few might remember, but we actually flipped to noodles about 3 or 4 days prior to that big late month 'Halloween snow storm' one late afternoon. An innocuous event to serve as warning. But it was all part of that same circuitry getting going. Anyway, point being ... there may be something to that statistically, where warm ups that are above a SD threshold might just correlate rather highly, as a prelude, to a period of higher latitude blocking. Like think of it as a total event that is warm presaging high latitude block in a kind of super synoptic sequence.

14 degrees and calm this morning.

Our Climate Watch Fearless Forecast calls for no more than 5 of the next 28 days to feature high temperatures 8º or more below average. And not as dry in Pennsylvania as recent weeks.

cold morning 24 now

1918...yikes! That must have been absolutely brutal. .

I feel like this has been so difficult even in the slightly better winters. I'm still optimistic we will get there. I just wonder if the long-term average is really closer to low to mid 40s rather than 50 inches.

Yes, it looks like we go on another run starting sometime later next week. If it plays out well, the snow pack could be pretty crazy up here. We’re around 2 feet right now and I don’t think we’re gonna lose that much given the cold nights, so we’ll probably have 18 to 20 when it starts piling back on top.

Looks like the PNA starting to improve at the end of the run. Likely a bit early as we would be in phase 6 however this should start to take form during the first week of March. This is NOT too late for snowfall for NYC.

Another beautiful winter morning. What an amazing winter it has been here in the lowlands. I'm going to miss these blue bird mornings by next week when it's back to cloudy, humid, and damp every morning. I just need a couple inches of slop at some point to make it to climo for the third winter in a row. This is my 3rd winter in a row with a solid period of snowcover and deep winter conditions. Next winter I'm going to be a resident of the upper Tug, in the Montague area. My climo will increase by around 300" a year lol

Next week seems to be trending cooler outside of a couple mildish days. But to your point, late Feb 2018 hit 75F+, then look what happened in March.

The big weather story for the New York City area this weekend through the middle of next week will be the combination of a February thaw and relatively quiet weather. A weak system will likely pass to the south Sunday night and Monday perhaps bringing some light precipitation for a time, mainly to the south of New York City. Temperatures during any precipitation will likely be mainly near or above freezing. The thaw could crest on Tuesday with the high reaching the upper 40s and possibly 50° in Central Park. Beyond the five-day period, some showers or periods of rain could be possible on Wednesday or Thursday with the temperature remaining above freezing for the duration of the event. The five-day figures from the NBM: For context, the forecast averages are somewhat more range-bound and somewhat milder than the values for the overall 1991-2020 climate reference period. Exceptional warmth remains unlikely. Despite the upcoming thaw, February remains extremely likely to be colder than normal overall.

It's a warm index period, yet the dailies/oper model cinemas are low balling on that potential. The main reason this takes place is to annoy me... Winter enthusiasts don't realize what is happening, they just assume the world is the way it should be. I'm neurotic about that. LOL. I don't like it when the idiosyncratic vagaries of wind and weather patterns placate and even enable one side, in general - cold or hot. But the reality is that index modes just mean favored regimes. It's a matter of how much or how little. There is variance within those regimes. Anyway, here on Earth... in this case, the pattern is acting like a -NAO without actually having a block. One does eventually formulate up there - as usual, inconsistently in both time and space by the guidance'. But these system running along a pinned polar boundary late next week ( it's a mixy storm signal that's been there for several days actually...), are acting ling the blocking patterns is there whether it is actually manifested or not. That behavior is the non-linearity of forcing. In wave mechanics, fields interact in both linear and non-linearity. The linear is what you see; the non-linear dictates where waves amplify verse damp out, emerge and decay. That's what exposes the non-linear field Another way to think of the non-linear relationship, the PNA in fact is positively correlated to the NAO. SO, -PNA statistically wants to manifest a -NAO... it seems the physics of the models are exposing that relationship, whether it shows up in the linear structures (those that are readily observed).

I think 81-82 might be the best winter I clearly remember. We seemed to get a couple of small snowfalls a week punctuated by somewhat regular larger storms. At one point, our nearly 4' tall electric fence was buried.