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MJO phase 8 to 1 in late April is a -NAO vibe but with AN tendency in NNE especially as you move east and north. “Best in Maine”. You can see that happening with the development of a weak coastal in gulf of Maine late Friday into early Saturday. That will send the boundary down to the mid Atlantic around Long Island with nasty easterly fetch. Guidance still catching on.

What does it have for the ONI?

mm... storms turn right. I wouldn't be surprised if Mohawk Trail initialization starts peeling S ...sending more anvil up our way.

Okay…second to last game of the regular season.

I was shocked to see the overnight NAM solutions back off the Wednesday afternoon BD arrival for eastern region. I think what's actually happening is that there isn't a ton a synoptic support/structure for genesis and subsequent motion in this case. It appears the models have been handling rain cooled air. There's are periodic/ nondescript convective pulses of QPF running W-E up in central and NNE, and coupling outflow with GOM oceanic cold is causing subtle +PP discontinuities. They can be real though.. but seeing the NAM back off is a red flag that convective logistics with outflow is problematic.

Textbook lenticulars over Spruce Pine yesterday. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

HRRR is fun for later

Congrats Route 2 north today. Steined south

There was very heavy rain and flooding early that July before the warmer conditions arrived as the El Niño first began to take hold. The late spring that year was defined by the record warmth in Canada and drought leading to all the wildfires and the record poor air quality conditions in NYC in early summer. That being said, each year is different which variation from previous El Niños. While it was a cooler summer relative to the 2020s, it was still warmer than most summers in the earlier decades. The progress of “cooler” summers since the 1990s

Bump for extension

Well there's a statistical history of time-lagged onset of -NAO after warm anomalies over the eastern continent.

Birds chirping and ladies twerking

Well, it looks like the Hudson River isn't frozen over anymore.

Days and days of 80’s

The depiction of the subsurface alone would make me think at this early stage we are further west than two of the stronger Nino events in the last 30 years.

Here are some depictions for specific years in comparison to this year.

Unfortunately had a large gap in data for TAO recently but here is the 2N-2S TAO depiction of the subsurface. Reminder that CPC and TAO are different in coverage but overall represent things similarly.

Garden variety wakeup showers

49.6° Hooefully we 70s even up here

Imo, The NAM isnt that good for temp guidance on the coast in the spring. Occasionally it can sniff out BDCF or sea breeze better than other models but most of the time it over-do's the marine influence. The BDCF it showed yesterday on its 18z run backed off a lot. The difference between that run and current 6z run in insane. No other model switched up like that. Globals and other hi-res models have been consistent where the NAM hasn't. Models still have a SE wind for Wednesday evening which will cool the island off fast, but no where as cold as the NAM was advertising. Even the current 6z 12km NAM only has a high of 71 for Islip today which will likely be too low. At least the 3km 6z NAM is much closer to reality and other models 3pm Wed 3km 6z NAM:

I don't see it. I'm guessing you're referring to LI though

Enjoy the torch the next few days. I drove north to Syracuse where it’s mid to upper 70s with storm chances all week

55 degrees this morning. Heading out fishing.

@Stormchaserchuck1 Wow at the current subsurface warmth. This downwelling Kelvin wave is massive. As per Paul Roundy: “The amount of momentum already integrated into this Kelvin wave has exceeded that of the March 1997 event by roughly 50%!”

60 at the house when I left but hit 52 through the rurals.