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grok-video-647cdb94-f014-4eb8-ae43-d33ac2aa76e7.mp4

In my amateur opinion...I wouldn't get excited about any winter before it happens--especially in this current cycle of underperformance we've been in with this -PDO. Just keep expectations neutral...it is a nina so you know the potential of those is limited even in better conditions anyway.

The EPS has a similar set up, but much less extreme as is normal for ensembles vs OP runs, and the cold isn't quite to our area yet at the end.

Today’s Euro Weeklies: 1. SPV: though there’s still a decent % with a reversal on 11/25, there actually was a notable drop in the % of SSWs on 11/25 in exchange for an increase in the % for that to be ~11/27-8: @MJO812@BlizzardWx Yesterday’s: 2. Today’s E US 2m temps are similar to yesterday’s run for Dec with a strong SE ridge early (mild again in the SE to lower Mid-Atlantic) that again slowly weakens through mid-Dec: 12/1-7: 12/8-14: 12/15-21: (12/22-28 similar) But yesterday’s extended EPS/GEFS were forecasting the MJO on 12/11-14 to reach phase 8, which is about the coldest phase on avg in the E US in Dec. with 60%/80% of them having been cold in Baltimore/RDU, for examples. Also, should the SSWE actually occur, the lagged cold may also start ~mid-Dec. So, should it actually get to phase 8 and the SSW occur in late Nov, I’d be looking for a very good chance for 12/15-21 and 12/22-28 to turn much colder in the E US on later runs as we get closer. That’s still a month out, an eternity for model accuracy. *Edit: In semi-windshield washer form, the 12Z EPS did turn back a bit colder in the SE US the last few days of the run vs the 0Z run due to a weaker SE ridge though it doesn’t look nearly as good to me as yesterday’s 12Z.

The end of the Euro is a big Alaska block and cold rapidly advancing eastward into our area from straight over the pole. It's not too dissimilar to the post Carvers made above of the GEPS but it is a bit warmer on the west coast with AN temps there.

You're gonna get it! This is going to be an exciting snow winter in the East and the Mid Atlantic's gonnabe leading the way!

Yep. 65F Christmas week is how we usually roll in Ninas round these here parts

Better than what he's usually full of

I’ll believe it when it happens.

Exhilarating

I agree. He’s trying to hype it into a KU coastal storm pattern up the east coast. I don’t know what in the heck he’s looking at

Woof

I fell for that hook, line & sinker in Dec 1989

Well, it is dry from the wood stove.

I’ll take January 1996 and call it a winter.

I was coming on here to mention this. It's showing up in the GEFS mean too.

Or the famous black hole over favorable blocking regions, which does infact verify, squash eseverything into the SE and we're dry and 40's

Definitely some lotion in the basket there.

This gets my vote for post of the year.

The early cold performing is a Nina trademark I believe lures weenies into believing a special winter is afoot Then bam springtime around the solstice in time for Christmas, like 40/70 thinks

When it’s clear, we can see the spine from Mansfield to Jay Peak from the porch of camp.

I heard from here the cold air will bleed east. Question is, is this a Siberian event? or North Atlantic event type SSW. As the Siberian event lasts longer the models seem to indicate that it's an Siberian event. I am rather confuse though as the EPS model went from 81 percent predicting a major SSW down to 56 percent last night. This is from Ben Noll on X. @BenNollWeather A sudden stratospheric warming event is forecast to peak around Nov. 25. This will probably disrupt the polar vortex, with Arctic air initially plunging into the west-central United States during late November, accentuating the stormy weather pattern headed for this region. https://x.com/i/status/1989324943415234596 Just two months after a rare stratospheric warming event disrupted the polar vortex above Antarctica, one is poised to do the same above the Arctic before the end of November. Watch the Southern Hemisphere's vortex go from perfectly round to ragged. https://x.com/i/status/1989347337932607567

We have Starlink at hunting camp now.