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Damn, I needed that sleep. In reading seems like it’s a drift towards GFS, and models are finally pickup on the artic fronts strength.

From the National Weather Service... Blizzard Warning A Blizzard Warning means that the following conditions are occurring or expected within the next 12 to 18 hours. 1) Snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 hours or longer AND 2) Sustained winds of 35 mph or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater. There is no temperature requirement that must be met to achieve blizzard conditions.

Pretty much have to go 1-2 feet with lolli 30. That’s very likely now

Oh my goodness, this is pretty sick. Lol. I find this awesome, check this clip out… https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1MsezJwY1F/?mibextid=wwXIfr

ICON says who’s panicking!

Nice tick south compared to 0Z

6z NAM still amped, but ICON shifted south.

Icon is almost gfs like that run. Colder and snowier.

WB 3K NAM 850 comp. 6Z to 0Z.

Almost to a useful range and it improved each run.

WB 6Z 3K NAM HR 54 compared to 0Z HR 60 is colder.

Man what a beast of qpf in the South

WB 6Z 3K NAM 1pm Sunday

6z NAM pretty toasty after a thump. Shoots the mixing all the way to say Poughkeepsie, RT 17 and points east.

WB 6Z NBM Para

And that's what I'm scared of for us.

I know for a blizzard criteria temps in the teens and winds higher then 20 mph mostly it doesnt depend on heavy snow but high winds and temps in the teens. atm my high is now only 15 this would bring me to 20-1 ratio which during yesterday was said to be a stretch we would be in the mid teens during the snow they were looking at temps 18-20 yesterday but ty for the reply

So the banana highs are just too wide and weaker and that's why the low cuts up through TN on higher res models? I'm trying to understand the basics here. Ending the event on rain and a squall line is just wild to me considering what we've been watching on the models all week. Granted, I'm glad the heavy rain can wash away all the ice and prevent hardships, even if it hurts my inner weenie. Edit: Looking at the 06z NAM.

yikes..not a great trend here at 0z.

Was out at poker night but am now caught up and would love for the GFS or AIFS/AIGFS to be right and give most of CNJ and the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC and the coast and my house very little sleet/ZR, but we've seen too many times when the WAA is undermodeled and with several other models showing 25-40% of the QPF falling as sleet, mostly, with a bit of ZR it seems quite possible we'll at least get 33% as sleet/ZR. Here's some thoughts for how to look at that. I still think mets need to find a way to report total frozen mass in mixed precip events as frozen mass is much better correlated to impacts than simple depth. I have to say this at least once a day, lol. Seeing QPFs of 0.9-1.5" across the models, if I take 1.2" as the QPF and have 66% of it be snow, that's 0.8" as snow and 0.4" as sleet/ZR, so let's say that's 0.3" as sleet and 0.1" as ZR. At 13:1 SLR (the rough ratio seen on the NBM through 0Z Monday when many models switch to sleet), the 0.8" QPF as snow is 10.4" of 13:1 snow, the 0.3" of QPF as sleet is 0.9" of sleet for a depth of 11.3" and the 0.1" of QPF as ZR has no depth as it's just absorbed into the snow/sleet pack although some compaction and freezing will occur, especially near the top Bottom line this could end up having 10" of depth after compaction containing 1.2" of QPF which has a top several inches being frozen solid with surface temps in the mid/upper 20s. This is a friggin' mess to drive in, walk on, plow, shovel, etc., and likely worse than dealing with that same 1.2" QPF of frozen mass as pure 15:1 snow or 18" of depth. Won't be nearly as pretty, but will be as or more impactful. And if there's more like 50% of the 1.2" QPF as snow (7.8" at 13:1) and 50% of the QPF as sleet and no ZR (2" of sleet at 3:1), that's 9.8" of depth and keep in mind that sleet melts much more slowly than snow as it has a far lower exposed surface area per unit volume.

DT/WxRisk's first guess map is the best one I've seen and I'd say I'm very aligned with it, as it has most of CNJ and 95 from Philly to NYC in the 8-12" of snow swath and noting that much of that area would also be receiving sleet; he doesn't specify how much sleet, but it's part of the 8-12" of "snow". I also like his 12-18" area with no sleet beginning around 78, which is a good guess. I might have his light blue area with a changeover to sleet/ZR all the way up to 78, though. I know he's a polarizing figure, but I like his work sometimes. The new NWS maps and discussion aren't up yet, but they did update their winter storm watches, below, which essentially have 12-17" of snow (and some sleet and up to 0.1" of ZR) for the counties N of 276/195 in PA/NJ (and Ocean), while they have 8-15" of snow and sleet with up to 0.25" of freezing rain for the counties S of 276/195 in SE PA/SNJ and DE. This is more realistic and in-line with my post above on DT's forecast. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 127 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May- Coastal Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia- Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery- ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 15 inches and ice accumulations up to one quarter of an inch possible. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 127 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-Carbon- Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Lower Bucks- ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 12 and 17 inches and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch possible.

Well, I'm not trying to be a dick, buddy. but a lot of these guys here aren't going to take kindly to the back and forth between me and you with a event of this nature coming into the short range. I don't know exactly what defines a blizzard but at this point the national weather service is either not seeing or are anticipating we meet the criteria. Furthermore if they are going to put out a blizzard warning, they have to be confident that they know where the criteria will be met. Once that's pinned down., maybe we'll see something like that somewhere. As far as duration no one can give you an accurate answer on that yet with this particular storm.

Lol they updated the graphic for socials - all of 21 minutes after the first one.

New Bedford isn't getting 2 feet of snow! This is complete and utter madness! I live in Newport. I'm not getting over a foot of snow! I'll probably change to plain rain. These north tics in these SWFE type events are relentless. It'll sag south a bit at the eleventh hour but not enough to salvage this utterly preposterous forecast.