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Absolutely. It’s one of the most complex setups you’ll see. The one thing I like is how potent this is. Hope we nudge west today, and see a path to how we could.

I think that’s solid. But probably the floor? You may be slowly accumulating during the afternoon and early evening while the rest of us stare at 37F white rain or regular rain…

Yep, elevation dependent boom scenarios, subsidence zones, you name it. This one has it all. Winners and losers are guaranteed. Just hope the losers hit their respective bars

That could be more noise at this point. I do not envy anyone who makes a living having to make the forecast here.

EMAWX calling for States of Emergency! https://x.com/ray9590/status/2025047143631794649?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

you to I am sure your will notice the 10 mph wind difference

Same and we can afford it forum wide but we’ll see how it goes. Euro shows a moderate storm for our area but nothing like NAM/GFS that both have me at over 20” multiple runs. one will be right when all is said and done on Monday. TBD

Not much

Euro is a solid 6 to 12

I agree. People now more than ever have this insane fascination about death bands. I say just sit back and enjoy it. I don’t really see the storm as having someone getting screwed unless you’re way outside the snow zone.

Then throw elevation effects into it…

NBM is up to 4 inches fwiw

Bernie Rayno says 3-6 DCA, BWI into eastern PA & NW NJ.6-12 from PHL-central NJ.12" in NYC. 12-18 along the Jersey shore into central Long Island. 1-2 feet from eastern LI to Boston including the Cape Cop. Around a foot in PVD, 6-12 HFD. 6-12 eastern MD/DE

How accurate is this that far out?

I am probably 2 miles south of Staten Island as the crow flies.. Just about on the Monmouth county border

They don’t mean much except to indicate latest trends perhaps. Might see the 12z Nam come back west some here in a bit.

These setups are so worrisome. It smells of January 2010 here. Waiting for the IVT is dicey. We should honestly be very conservative around here, especially with a during the day cutting back on stickage..

Still liking 4-6 IMBY

We happy. We horny. Lets Fuking Snow!

5.3". Some lingering flurries

this lady is saying hours and hours of 1-2 inches per hour... and a chance of up to 12" SMH

9z SREFs jogged west (roughly 0.3 inches more of precipitation across the board). FWIW

Sure glad I am few miles west of Staten Island - wouldn't want to be caught in that Blizzard

wait till tonight.

I mean is it just me or are all these models showing very small noise level shifts and other models still seem to be catching up. At this point it’s time to bring up the water vapor map circle the northern stream and southern vorts and extrapolate.