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#snowtown

And still happening on the models in the long range.

so much for my analysis, apparently it's cold and dry and I suck. talk to the meteorologists and the good posters if you want real analysis.

Amen, brother. Hope you get well soon, John.

i never said when in the extended.

Ooo, ooo, do me!

Not to agree with Ji but being honest it’s too far to our east and a bit north. If anything it’s similar how we get something like this Thursday where it’s a NS wave we pray it develops south.

Trying for a phase lol

40/70 helping snowman19 out Welcome to 2026 Anyway dont want to derail this thread.

Man, you love the pain. Respect

MJO looks likely to be headed towards phase 8 so odds are any risk of extended warm will hold off at least through the end of the month. Plus this upcoming strong westerly wind burst in the pacific could enhance our subtropical jet, and kill of the La Niña entirely in pretty quick fashion.

Nam doing Nam things at 18z

It looks pretty transient to me. I do think there is a window there 1/20-1/23 or so where a storm likely happens but right after that we continue to see the 3 ensembles all more or less go back to a +PNA look again or a hybrid -EPO/+PNA look that may be briefly suppressive. I think 1/24-1/29 may favor the MA/SE. After that might be a 2 week window up this way. I am now becoming more confident we carry this ti 2/10-2/15.

All I agreed with him on is that it's been dry and La Nina still has an influence....I'm asking for information on his other "claims", which has yet to be provided.

50s in January is pretty common here - this isn't northern New England.

No, since you are making the accusations, the onus is on you, not me. Substantiate your claims and get back to me...

Exactly

You cant be serious and agree with him. Go back to his posts about November and December and then get back to me. He did admit that he was wrong though about December being warm.

What exactly???

Ya.im looking and the 18z NAM might be a bit more interesting

He posts elsewhere on this site too you know. He was correct about dry, wrong about every other thing possible.

Was seeing the same thing but didn’t wanna say it cause of just being weenied

I know ensembles are the way to go beyond Day 7, when most of the snow on this AIFS map falls, but c'mon, you have to at least chuckle at this map if you live in the big cities.

HRRR has the Bays Mt band on it, I think...

Feels like a good time to remind everyone of the following, all of which is taken from MU's exactly 100 years of snowfall record-keeping. MU only averages a 12"+ snowfall about once every three years and only averages a little over two events per year with >4". They average ~9.5 measurable snowfalls a year at an average accumulation of 2.86", for a yearly average ~27". Over 75% of the accumulated snowfall comes from events <4". 32% of the snow falls in Feb, 30% in Jan, 17% Dec, 16% Mar, 3% Nov, and 1% in April (yes I'm aware these add up to 99 and not 100 ha). Leanest decade was the 50's with an average annual snowfall of only 21.6". Current decade is averaging only 14.8" but that is coming on the heels of one of our snowiest from 2010-2019 with an average of 35.5". Snowiest decade was the 60s with an annual average of 36.2".