All Activity

I like the -EPO and +PNA for down my way, but that might be too much of a good thing for some of you guys, especially the NW crew. Luckily for them it won't look anywhere near that good as the "warts" come into view as it gets closer. Pretty though.

In general I heartily agree. For every suppression risk we have 10x NW trend fails. I'm more worried about the general background state of dryness. As @NorthHillsWx had an excellent point earlier: if it can't rain even when it's warm, what makes us think it can snow? I got zilch yesterday in a warm, muggy airmass.

Odd, wasn't it? We always get pure snow every winter. Must be another Gfs error.

Truly think this is our biggest problem. The northern stream is very progressive right now, especially without better wave spacing, so we need something to jam up the flow a bit. Need some blocking over Greenland, a stout 50/50, or ideally both.

That’s one way to put it

What’s your final prediction for seasonal snowfall this year. I still think NYC ends up with 15 at most

I'm not throwing in the towel on winter just yet, but I have come to the conclusion that I may like snow a little too much to live here N and mostly East of Corbin usually do really well on these flow events, Corbin not so much, sharp cut off in London

Cold outbreaks usually trend less in intensity/extent at verification. Every once in a while that is a good thing for some of us. Last year during that epic Gulf snowstorm, E NC was originally forecast to get nothing as the system was suppressed to oblivion, but the last minute NW trend netted me 3 fluffy inches. The only cold outbreak that I can remember since I really started following weather that did NOT degrade to my knowledge was the Big Chill in late December 2017 early Jan 2018. That seemed to sneak up on me.

Noooo. Ji adds charm to this forum lol

Well there’s plenty of time..so maybe.

That’s 1-3” for SNE as is . This winter everyone here would strip down and jump in bed to bump and grind with that .

Very true. Just that at least for me…I don’t care what the lakes get(good for them), but it’s so isolated and mesoscale that it doesn’t really do anything for me, other than a quick glance when they show it on the news.

damn.

You sure? I know you a little nervous lol.

1/18 has been subtly trending a little better today....won't be that interesting unless it continues to do so for another couple of cycles.

Gotta start somewhere lol

I wasn't worried about ground temps. Lol Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

All we gotta do is change the name.

Yeah multiple events on the horizon for us. And very cold temps so if anyone is worried about the ground temp don't because it's going to be very cold for several days.

Snow for cape

I mean, Ray would rather we all blowtorch than three miles south of him get more snow. We’re arrogant snobs when we’re winning and full on haters when we’re losing.

And additional flow snow chances into next week! We are getting some very cold shots throughout the next couple of weeks. There is really no reprieve from cold temperatures in the foreseeable future! We are in for an active period for at least the next couple of weeks in prime climatology!

The only thing that seems to be guaranteed throuhh the end of the month is cold air. GFS has a larger storm just offshore for the 18th. Euro has nothing. All models are signaling a larger storm around the 23rd. Looks like colder air sets in on Wednesday; ending our thaw, and then arctic air comes in next weekend and stays (probably some slight moderation at time) throuhh the end of the month. Very active long range signal. Not just for here but finally for central and south US as well. Will winter finally begin for those places?

Probably as good as the GFS Shoveling Friday.

Be careful about having the phase 8 signal shrink in future guidance...