All Activity

I sure hope this is because we are getting better data. The beginning of this window is still about 7 days out...but this trough amplification looks like it means business. The AIFS EURO is less enthused, but still has some interesting events d10-15. The good thing is that models "might be" recognizing the MJO window that is seen on CPC along w/ the climatology of recent years which is to send severe cold into the nation's mid-section during La Nina during late January.

I'd gt my 4,3,and 2 points that way - I take.

post the kamchatka pics dude

Two possibilities. Cold high, followed by cold high, followed by cold high.......... and a clipper possibility to boot. Really nice Euro run, but more importantly it matches well with the GFS and Canadian for something right around a week away. Need to see some consistency over the next few days (which has been like pulling teeth to get) to gain confidence in any excitement.

The Guest Suite just booked for the weekend so all is good!

Don’t you love how the precip always disappears in McDowell @wncsnow

No? What big storm were we tracking before Jan 28? Jan 15 phantom that wasn't going to work?

SEA,NE,BUF, CHI

Plus the QB 'injury' for SEA

Euro clipper fest

I guess I should go out of town more often! We’re on the way to Banff and Lake Louise for some skiing. Those 12z runs are coming in hot! Er uh Cold and snowy! If this pattern doesn’t produce something I don’t know what it’ll take. Big caution is the drought situation and the moisture content of systems underperforming, but hopefully the STJ is indeed waking up and will give us a much needed shot of moisture.

We are in the stadium with good players on the field, but still waiting for it all to come together for a win.

I am surprised since the Darnold nagging oblique or whatever thing came out that the line on that game has not moved.

I nailed all the games in round 1 so (6 points to 1 point) so I have 21 points and have a little wiggle room. Just don't want to blow my 4 pointer this week.

I like the new format highlighting Key Messages, but I'm not sure how I feel about it not being necessarily chronological. They seem to have made the decision to start with most impactful within each forecast period in the discussion, regardless of chronology. Hm. Here's the announcement, published Tues: https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/cache/357-2025/PNSLWX/d70a3efb41e0bd9e7ac6a50c1cc432fc

Actually here in the Chesco only 1.5 AN....we appear heading for our 4th straight below normal temperature month and 5th out of the last 6 months - that is impressive in our current warm cycle...suspect we may be trending to our next cooling cycle.

When you have a ens mean showing over .25” qpf 5+ days out that’s a decent sign something may happen in that period.

The Philly area got the worst of it. Forecasted by NWS to get 8 to 12. Ended up with 0.

This is my point, the big storm is always 10 plus days away...

I like all 4. Most nervous about SEA though. 49ers always give them fits.

Yep it's coming in line with the AI models. Coast could get plowable snow

seems more like Jan '96 minus the snow, wind, and general storminess.

All operational guidance has the same general idea for the 7-15 day period. Colder than normal temps with waves of moisture sliding west to east. Hopefully we can get that boundary in the right place.