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We have yet to see another non-tropical system that matches the violence of November 1950. That really was a one of a kind setup as far as non-hurricane wind impacts go. Nothing else even comes close.

October 2009… definitely a harbinger of the following February. My father-in-law is supposed to fly in to BWI Sunday afternoon though.

Antibiotics, sanitation, vaccines, fertilizers, and genetically modified crops slowed down his business.

Its the long range rgem but its mostly a 95 east heavy rain event

We had snow showers in Tamaqua in May of 2020 so I suppose anything is possible. I never thought I'd ever see May snowflakes, but we did that year.

The Organic weather forecaster is back, this time with anal logs.

Remarkably similar 2 month period with some probably pretty important differences.

Is this what the Reaper is doing in retirement to earn a few extra bucks? A graveyard greeter...sort of like a Wallmart greeter!!! (You can welcome people by saying "Good Morgue-ning!!)

This could be a legit one. Barring a Friday/Saturday rug pull or it fails the day of the event. We can’t underestimate the “day of” fails, they’ve been happening a lot thaws last few winters.

Thank you for this, I was thinking exactly the same thing. This potential was showing up in much of the guidance going back to Sunday or Monday as I recall. And it was mentioned in discussions even at that time. I was a bit surprised that LWX was still being optimistic holding off any real mention of rain for awhile, but I guess they wanted to keep the then-longer range forecast consistent and the same until there was a better indication in the guidance. And they did actually allude to the uncertainty and possibility of a Nor'Easter type system for the latter part of this weekend.

How is 96L not named???

Well, I hope/think much of Saturday should be OK from what I've looked at across much of the area. I know where you're coming from, as I, myself, am planning to go to the MD Renaissance Festival again on Saturday. I won't be surprised if there are a few light or brief showers in the afternoon (which wouldn't be too horribly bad) but it seems like the more consistent and heavier rain would hold off until Saturday evening and beyond. At least hopefully!

My latest update on this is it continues to increase in intensity By very late Saturday night or wee hours of Sunday it gets going. Winds pick up to 20-30 from e-ne and temps hold in 50’s Sunday with squally rains and winds 25-35 gusting to 50 before ending around dawn Monday with 1-3” of rain and strong ne winds all day Monday. Should I create a new thread “The 53 storm discussion and obs” ?

Yea we will see what happens, I'm more so interested if this will actually show that negative anomaly being finally taken out. That feature has been present for a very long time even during the last Nino.

We’ve all got some damage coming. Big signals now . Enjoy it folks

Agreed!

We now have enough mesonet stations online that terrain features are becoming visible. Tonight's low temperature map should be interesting to witness.

Those numbers for your area are reasonable

Gorgeous!! It’s so nice to have fall in the air

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 500 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 Satellite images, aircraft observations, and ASCAT data indicate that Jerry is a poorly organized and strongly sheared tropical storm. The low-level center is now fully exposed and elongated, with the main area of deep convection located on the system's south and southeast sides. The initial intensity is again held at 55 kt, but that could be a little generous. The center of Jerry is less than 100 miles from the northern Leeward Islands, which is often close enough to experience strong winds. However, the ASCAT and aircraft data showed that the strongest winds are confined to a region east of the center. In fact, winds are quite light on the west side. Jerry has been moving erratically today, but smoothing through the fixes suggest that the storm is gradually turning to the right. The initial motion is now estimated to be 300/16 kt. This general motion should continue through early Friday, taking the center of the system near or over the northern Leeward Islands during that time. However, as mentioned above, the strongest winds should pass to the east of the islands due to Jerry's asymmetric structure. A turn to the north is expected to occur by late tomorrow, and that motion should continue through most of the weekend as the storm moves in the flow on the western side of a subtropical ridge. Early next week, a faster eastward or east-northeastward motion is forecast in the mid-latitude westerlies. Jerry is expected to pass east of Bermuda in a few days, and given its expected eastward asymmetry, significant impacts appear unlikely there. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and this prediction is in best agreement with the HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Strengthening in the short term seems unlikely given Jerry's poor initial structure. However, after the storm passes the northern Leeward Islands, the vertical wind shear could decrease some while Jerry remains over warm water and in a moist air mass. Therefore, slow strengthening is predicted from late Friday through Sunday. The opportunity for strengthening will likely end early next week when the system moves into stronger shear and over cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward due to a combination of the storm's poor initial structure and latest guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and are possible in the watch area this evening through Friday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban areas and in steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.3N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.6N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 21.0N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 23.7N 63.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 26.5N 63.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 30.7N 61.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 32.3N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 32.2N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Spent most of the day in the 50s, only just got to 61 an hour ago

Hi it a high of 66 very briefly here, but mainly 64 or lower the entire day. It was beyond nice out for my 4+ mile walk earlier. A perfect mid-fall type day. Currently 64/43

Lots of 30s at least. Hope MBY makes it

Breeze has really died off here, that would help for sure