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6z euro op has the s/w way too far north. That needs to be further south and dig.

Moderate snow. Flipped on a dime here. Temp down to 33

21 degrees and windy. Sounds like a coal stove and coffee morning.

I buy some sort of Pacific shake up. Not entirely sure to what though. The catalyst to force that looks to be an -EAMT set to take place in the day 10-15 period. This should do a few things. Retract the Pacific jet causing some wave breaks. This should force alterations to the Pacific. Perhaps this is the signal for this current WPO episode to wane. With a retrograding Pacific, not sure. But also this would be the driver of the fall in AAM that's been identified in the next 2 weeks. What I believe that means is an attenuation of this current MJO signal. Probably signaling the end of this current MJO event as well. Until the next one takes shape into January is my guess.

You bite your tongue!!!! Lol Hopefully we'll have something that finally covers the ground.

6z euro Ai strengthens a wave at day 6. The 6z euro OP and EPS trended towards digging that same wave farther S. Can also see the better ridge position out west on 6z EPS Something to keep an eye on .

Terminator ensembles have a signal too. Feel a little better.

Thanks, same to you. It's starting to snow here as well. Good luck to you and everyone.

Anyone under that band just north of Fredericksburg? Still nothing I can see in Richmond yet.

As painful and snowless as this winter has been and continues to look like it will be for now , I’d still prefer cold and dry over that on Xmas Eve

Hopefully 6z terminator and 00z gfs have a clue.

La Nina/El Nino correlations are vastly overestimated with regards to snowfall around here. Unless you're in a strong to very strong state for both of them you'll have winters that run the gamut.

We're gonna have to get Tip's jet to slow down for you to find the Tylenol.

Light rain switching to snow right now. Temp beginning to drop!

I’m pretty much at the “hallelujah holy shit, where’s the Tylenol..” point.

RadarScope is changing over to mix over the northern TRI. It mostly rain, but I can see mix on the windshield. This is early for that.

I know I went out on a limb with the mid-month call, but I still think something should pop in that timeframe prior to any warm up. I'm not talking about a blizzard...just a plowable event for a good portion of the area.

At the very least the fact that it can still snow in Richmond and Carolina should be encouraging that we aren't toast yet for upcoming winters.

That 0z EURO is days and days in NNE. PF is absolutely loving life

He is speaking of the faster flow in general, which has interfered with phasing attempts and sustained PNA ridges...this promotes predominately inland and suppressed tracks. I def. think there is also some bad luck involved...but a bit of both IMO. Perfect shit storm.

Below is why a relaxation is possible during December 20-31. The WPO is forecast to become less negative while a PNA-, EPO+,AO+, NAO+ regime is largely in place. The WPO would no longer be sufficiently negative to offset the impact of unfavorable teleconnections. Fortunately, that's still far out where skill is low, so it's a plausible but not yet certain outcome.

If we'll have bare ground it might as well be 60F on 12/24.

Well we can’t keep going like this so maybe you have to change the pattern and risk losing cold and dry for a chance at a bigger storm knowing the it could also be a warm rain

Every single modeled torch going back to October has muted or vanished. Gotta figure that happens again Xmas

Its coming once this front moves through. Temp and dew point about to drop. Hope you do well man!