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I've noticed a trend in the AI D3-D6 range tends to herd and "go big" a lot.

It inched warmer overall from what I'm seeing... It's almost a complexion thing where it looks less aggressive then 24 hours ago. Just about unilaterally, all hydrostatic fields from Washington to Maine were like 2-10 dm taller in the general cinema throughout. However, the 'geometry' or shape I suppose, still looks similar - some sort of a trough in the midwest/Lakes region... the depth of which proooobably shallows some as it nears in guidance. It's not very clear if that actually will be an agency for "cold" delivery here now that I look closer. I agree that it's more "mild down-ish" for SNE... but this may end up being so for you guys, too. For one, these cold amplitude deals ...the models have been overselling them since 2012 and the arrival of the version-upgrades-every-10-minutes era. I think they've swapped beta testing/polishing for some other ambition.. .who knows. One aspect that is emerging... as we near the solstice, all three ens systems are rapidly retrograding said trough - not progressing into a +PNA/summer killer. That numerical telecon has a strong -PNA emerging just beyond next week. Starts falling around the 15th... by "Juneteenth", -2.5 SD. This latter index state was more in the -1 and a quarter range 24 hours ago. It's doubled. heh. Again, all three... GEPS/GEFS/EPS. So taken fwiw, a gambler at the long lead table's putting their bucks down on the idea that what cooler signal does materialize for next week, it's likely transient.

We’ve only just begun

The warmup this morning is rapid - already 23C/76F and totally blue skies still somehow with the higher humidity and approaching clouds/storms later. It was suppose to be overcast by now, finally a reversal.

The trajectory is east, but then it gets cut south last minute because the flow is still kind of blocky. So I don’t have hopes east of like Worcester to eastern Connecticut. I guess we shall see.

Hopefully its done for a bit after that.. ill be in Atlantic City next Tuesday through Friday.. hoping its not to hot

I ended up with .25. The rain today looks like it's being stubbornly north in Kentucky.

Was waiting for your comment on this! Its intriguing for sure.

To the three people who aren’t already aware, 73rd anniversary of the Worcester Tornado today

Thursday is an interesting day. I think the best instability probably rides into New York State and New Jersey possibly into western southern New England, but there’s an EML that’s gonna be trying to move in and Northwest flow aloft. Some of the soundings looked pretty impressive, especially on the nam yesterday. That’s a day to watch especially in western areas.

I seen yesterday there were 6 tornados confirmed by NWS in western Pa. US National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA · Follow · Just a quick update: so far, a total of six tornadoes have been confirmed in SW Pennsylvania from the Saturday storms: three in Washington County, two in Fayette County, and one in Westmoreland County. Additional details forthcoming both this evening and tomorrow.

At least we got a deep summer stretch right on into about Monday or so.

Yeah next week is a little cooler here for sure. It looked like the trough axis would set up over the Great Lakes but it’s sort of setting up in southeast Canada so we’ll have more of a infiltration of cooler and drier air, although I don’t think it’s gonna be really below normal unless that low on the euro is correct.

promising look, nice that we should see multiple rounds impact klot

KFOK 45 so your number is impressive. .

Let's start a GoFundMe to tear down the Appalachians

Min 48.8°…sucks but it’s still early June. Still looks cooler next week…maybe more like mild downs in SNE. EC tries to sneak a low under NNE which would make for a mank day. Keep the mean trough in the midwest and we’ll be okay most days.

Hopefully, the clouds and convection can prevent another run on 100° so soon after the one in May. The only model with upper 90s in our area is the Euro. But it has less clouds and convection than the other models. It could be correct if the convection underperforms with the ongoing drought. The model forecasts highlight the big temperature divide as early as Thursday.

Ultimately El Niños are ranked by their jump in global temperatures. 2023-2024 had a larger rise in global temperatures than previous super El Niño events. So relying on the RONI metric is inadequate to describe these much stronger events. Even the authors of the paper which RONI is based on said the scale may need to be reevaluated in the future. So I view it as an experimental index which should be used alongside the traditional ONI scale. It can be used for assessing features like El Niño rainfall and the strength of the Aleutian Low. But ONI was closer to reality on temperatures during 2023-2024 than RONI. Plus the 500 mb ridge over North America was more in line with ONI. 2023-2024 was the warmest winter on record for the CONUS which none of the models beyond 15 days forecast. The warmth across the Northern Tier even exceed some of the previous super El Niño events. Seasonal models don’t have the ability to see extremes. Extreme warmth has been greatly exceeding extreme cold. So the long range models miss extreme warmth much more often since extreme cold has become so rare. About the only thing I use the seasonal models for are the Nino plumes once we get past the spring predictability barrier in early June. But we knew something really big was coming months ago with the record WWBs and kelvin waves. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/4/JCLI-D-23-0406.1.xml As they previously cautioned, in the future, if there are significant divergences between the tropical mean state and trends in the Niño indices, then this index will need to be re-evaluated. We hope this work motivates additional studies and simulations of these indices in a changing climate.

Day 2 marginal, Day 3 marginal and day 4 15%

53 degrees this morning. Certainly a nice cloudy day yesterday.I wasn’t expecting that. High of 75 degrees.

US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites · · HOT, HUMID, AND STORMY Increasing heat and humidity will be accompanied by daily chances for afternoon showers/thunderstorms through Friday. A classic summer-like pattern..

50.5F for my low lets see what happens in a week.

The new DWKW has already started: And wow! 3 TC’s have formed in less than a week in the EPAC. Historic TC season coming up there

49 this morning