All Activity

Euro still very wet

HRRR pretty insistent on a storm along MA/NH border later today.

Sunny hot and Dewey out there. We wipe, we love

Euro also drier. But not gfs bad. Mostly 1-2” with higher spots.

I might not mow till June.

SLGT risk tomorrow for metro areas west to the WV panhandle

I think some people are missing out on how much warming has occurred globally since the 1990s. Just look at the UAH temperature data [which uses a 1991-2020 baseline] and the 1990s look as warm globally as the 1800s used to look in the 1980s & 1990s, which to me suggests as much warming occurred in the last 25 years as had occurred in the preceding 100+ years.

Mesoscale details are flexing in a pattern that acts more like June 2. In fact our lead wave is an MCV from overnight Texas activity. So June. Then outflow boundaries are strewn about. MD #648 keys in on outflow spit out from ongoing thunderstorms approaching Middle Tenn. New line going through Memphis will be able to interact with the said outflow boundary. I also feel like a more diffuse boundary stretches east through North Alabama into North Georgia, attempting to lift north farther east. That boundary could be left over from Thursday evening storms. While it has a couple more hours to destabilize, scattered storms are already developing that way. When the main line gets there it should have a bow shape which favors straight wind over rotation. QLCS spin-up or two might be possible. Otherwise, I think the diffuse boundary just serves to keep storms robust and straight winds strong.

So…. Euro had 10” a few days ago and what I’m seeing the percent starts at 90% then drops to 80% the drops to 60% then drops to 40% then drops to 30% then zippo. This has become tracking a winter storm like looking for a needle in a haystack. NWS last night had heavy rain here for 3 days see about that! Guess it depends where the front and storm get stuck. Think someone said a few pages back hope the rain stops by next Saturday! Can’t stop if it doesn’t start. also nice to see the Southeast Ridge Bermuda high in place like it’s mid summer damm lightning bugs brought it I’m sure.

I still think the 6/1/11 event that evening was the best night show I've ever seen. Just constant flickering and lots of close CGs. My old co-worker who chases in the Plains called it OKC lightning. Said the best he's seen around here. Knocked out power for the Bruins Stanley cup game lol. I think it was game 1.

Crazy differences

66/55 up here… different vibe than the dews in the 10s yesterday.

Someone else posted this here a year or two ago..One of the most insane clips I’ve ever seen:

So it goes as with most of the storms here. I'm left wondering if we'll get much of anything the next few days. The latest drought monitor continues to show the same persistent trends nearly perfectly, in that the precip hits a wall about 2/3 of the way across PA and NY state. Look what happened with last weeks line, shredded to nothing once it passed state college. It's interesting how parts of NY state and New England have had persistent rain and snow these past months, and have run normal or above in the precipitation category. These same trends can be seen on soil moisture maps too. Bottom Line: don't cancel any outdoor plans. You might be fine.

Yeah cutting off farther west and moving out a little quicker next week seems like the 2 biggest problems. PWATs are still juicy, so showers should be good rainers.

The problem is that the upper low now looks to cut off further west, so Sunday is probably now a warm day with convection that the GFS is likely not resolving well. That said, it could very well end as an event with winners and losers instead of everyone getting some love.

Tippy butt bangin' done here. sun out and pushing 70+

I'll be satisfied as long as we get around an inch of rain. We don't need the big 3 to 5 inch amounts that the Euro is showing, but we do need a good watering. It'll be interesting to see if the Euro holds with the much bigger amounts on the 12z run. It seems as if our very big rain event is falling apart.

I wasn’t expecting today to be mostly sunny and have the highest real feel temps of the season so far on the south shore. It’s almost uncomfortable in the sun.

GFS/NAM around .25" through mid afternoon Sunday then the bulk falls late day into Monday 1.25" additional RGEM .75" total southeast PA through Monday ouch

Tip-I don’t feel your implication of dank socked in (ostensibly via a back door) is applicable. Even when overcast temps easily moved into the upper 60s. Now as the sun breaks out, we should end up a solid +10 on the daily max.

We will get some rain b/w now and next Tue/Wed but the big totals are looking less and less likely

12z GFS is kind of a bust in our area.

This was always a shaky evolution. We'll see what the final results are but the super hefty event totals (3-4"+) are looking very questionable especially along and east of I95.

i troll spartman, and then guidance flips. i see how it is...