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Always, smh Although it has been awhile since we've had this kind of moisture from the stj during a nina...so you'd hope that would help. But then ya got that dang high pressing (not sure if that's a random NS thing or not).

Not all Ukie ? Cmc?

Can anyone post the Euro AI Ensembles?

You definitely need some none AI guidance to bite on something. The fact that they are complete whiffs is concerning

Weird how BOX removed all the Cape amounts from PNS.even the NWS observed 5.8" from 11pm. Now the amounts are all 4" and under. One way to cover a busted forecast

I don't think i invented the phrase but i've said it alot over the past few years.....Nina's love the beaches and North Carolina

Make sure the ruler is straight and not on the grass

If that warm air mixes in we could have a 1994 redux. Ugh.

Well I was thinking that if the anomalous strong high was gonna verify and keep pressing we'd start seeing more and more suppressed solutions by then.

probably our best ratios of the year with this one, so those few hundredths of liquid could really fluff

Low of 13°

low 17 Difficult scrape as expected. Doors frozen shut and all the usual annoyance after rain-snow-refreeze event.

The RGEM had the best QPF forecast for the January 18th event while the ECMWF was a close second. The EC-AI had 0.39".

Phase 8 Neg AO Neg NAO Positive PNA

Just shy of 8” here. Absolute paste

Everything is just caked and snow and has been since about late Saturday morning. Almost to the point where another probably 2-3 inches of this and we'd be seeing some limbs break off and probably power outages. I can't remember the last time it was really this photogenic outside...in fact, its like pictures don't even do the true justice. This is probably how it looks like in parts of Alaska all winter long.

What are they at for the season now.

I desperately want to hang my hat on the fact that extreme record-breaking events are just that. We will know soon enough i suppose

What makes you think tomorrow would be definitive? Trust me, we won't know yet.

Good to see the AI models still looking great for this weekend’s chance. Hopefully the Op runs trend back in that direction. Lots on the table & it will be fascinating to watch it unfold this week.

2.6” new so far

Very icy outside

It's not the only one. The UKMet and GFS AI are both far north solutions as well.

15 for the low in Marysville

The one caveat, which is hard to evaluate, is whether the high pressure (and associated upper level configuration) will be so anomalous, that the AI will, by its nature, not predict it. The AI models are trained on some amount of reanalysis, and so they can't/won't predict extreme or record-breaking events well. Will this setup be record-breaking? Hard to say. But that's something to keep in mind when evaluating the AI models vs the physics-based models.