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Phase 8 Neg AO Neg NAO Positive PNA

Just shy of 8” here. Absolute paste

Everything is just caked and snow and has been since about late Saturday morning. Almost to the point where another probably 2-3 inches of this and we'd be seeing some limbs break off and probably power outages. I can't remember the last time it was really this photogenic outside...in fact, its like pictures don't even do the true justice. This is probably how it looks like in parts of Alaska all winter long.

What are they at for the season now.

I desperately want to hang my hat on the fact that extreme record-breaking events are just that. We will know soon enough i suppose

What makes you think tomorrow would be definitive? Trust me, we won't know yet.

Good to see the AI models still looking great for this weekend’s chance. Hopefully the Op runs trend back in that direction. Lots on the table & it will be fascinating to watch it unfold this week.

2.6” new so far

Very icy outside

It's not the only one. The UKMet and GFS AI are both far north solutions as well.

15 for the low in Marysville

The one caveat, which is hard to evaluate, is whether the high pressure (and associated upper level configuration) will be so anomalous, that the AI will, by its nature, not predict it. The AI models are trained on some amount of reanalysis, and so they can't/won't predict extreme or record-breaking events well. Will this setup be record-breaking? Hard to say. But that's something to keep in mind when evaluating the AI models vs the physics-based models.

Exactly. Extreme ZR totals is all about duration. Heavy precip with that kind of wedge tends to flip to sleet except in a narrow band with surface temps in the mid/upper 20s. That narrow band could set up anywhere and will indeed be a serious issue in all likelihood, but no need to worry too much until we iron out more details

around 6", didn't measure though

Surprised you're that low-BDR is closer to 20 inches STD

If it fails I'm not sure how much of a "rug pull" it'll be seeing as we could very well know by 0z tomorrow whether suppression (the biggest fail risk) is gonna be an issue or not.

Ill post it when i get there. Im hoping it inky accumulated in the grass.

Phase 8 Neg AO Neg NAO Positive PNA

needed the snow blower again this morning, I think I used it more so far this year than all of last

NAO dipping as well.

4.9" yesterday. 7.9 OTG all in for the weekend (there was some settling).

Big dip in the AO. Hoping not too much.

Mostly miss north of I-80 in this area. I'll take the usual <1".

You are correct. That will happen for a lot of people. He’s right too. Enough of a cold press will change the zr to ip or sn to help offset the destruction.

FWIW, the Euro AI was almost dead on at D5. It took the Euro longer to get there for yesterday's event. Tonight's runs will be 5 days out. If the Euro AI continues to show similar solutions I see very little reason why not to believe it.