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I dunno. This may be moving away from the previous looks of an overunning thing with stj involved and turn into mostly NS based Ala my post about the Manitoba Mauler look. Neither is a monster storm look but both solutions are pretty standard ways we can cash in with a 3-5ish type thing. Guess we get the next 2 systems out the way and see which form it decides to take.

Drizzle in silver spring. Noteworthy here in dust bowl territory. Hoping for a good soaking drenching gallonous flow from the sky today

Bump

Something’s gotta give in February one would think. Maybe, maybe not.

SNE talking about black ice like they live in DC. Exciting times.

Unless passion overcomes him, his limited posts are well worth reading. As akwatpys …..

We’re running it baby.

Definitely not good runs from last night and this morning. If something doesnt change at 12z today for the better we may be heading towards a no go solution again.

Yea, the southern stream just isn’t there when we need it. Looks like we’re dealing with Miller Bs next week. Meh.

Heck of a way to run a torch and week of 50’s

6z compared to 18z-

So we're now out to the 20th for potential? Is it me or does this season feel super weird? We had deep winter 6 weeks ago during fall. Then I went up to the Tug Hill and received 100". I feel like it's spring now. My brain thinks it's March.

Today feels and looks more like March 10th than January 10th...

I stepped outside about the same time to get my 12 in and quickly figured out that I wasn’t going to risk falling on all the black ice. I’ll just run this afternoon. Wasn’t really expecting that. .

Yeah but the big difference(on both 0z and 6z) is later towards the 18th. Needs to be more like the 18z run wrt the energy(vorticity ribbon) riding overtop the ridge phasing in early. The biggest improvement on the 6z run over 0z imo is it doesnt leave a ball of energy behind parked in the SW.

Pope-A-Wheelie on the Kawasaki?

38/29 at 8:30 am. And the black ice throughout downtown is finally gone. perfect for the morning dog walk.finally. rejoice.

Why bother going up?

Remember last February where the models were showing a HECS in the 120-160hour range, and then they completely backed off in literally like one model cycle after it was clear the massive TPV wasn't going to phase properly with our southern vort? That's what could happen again here, but maybe we trend more favorably? Just have to watch it play out

Bonus soak

Zzzzzz

PSM hit 49 last night. Gotta be the warmest temp in 3 weeks. Maybe a month…

Worse then I thought. Drove to gym and other than loads of black ice, looks like spring. We fared much better thurs when it was 46f full sun. Only got 0.09" rn overnight but you'd think it was 50f with matching dews overnight Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

On a good note, we are getting a lot of rain. 1.4 and counting