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Where is my heater?

Yeah that did look..."interesting"...in terms of development. But hell, looked pretty damned decent to me overall! it appears that it develops a coastal after it has passed us (and dumps a decent WAA thump of snow/mix/ice), while still holding on to a fairly strong primary around the Lakes. But temps look OK verbatim through that time. And then some small disturbance gives more snow a short time after behind all that it appears?

Warmth def gets centered west and north of us for mid-month (as currently modeled). That will keep us in the game for winter wx threats…and we’ve been seeing that on all guidance at different times.

Never ever change TBLIZZ we love you

Yeah run of the mill? Extended below zero wind chills with snow and then drawn up from my basement a big dog. Of course your snow will all be melted by then right?

rabbits...i got rabbit poop all over the yard...how they don't freeze to death is a miracle.

Let’s see who’s right and wrong come Saturday

Maintaining a snowpack in early-mid February is generally easy as long as temps aren’t way above freezing. Once we get to 2/21 and beyond, you start to get daytime/sun melt even when temps are below freezing

my kids were in grade school. son has a masters in ecology now and works for the state, daughter has a degree in entomology and works as a warehouse manager; at least she can identify the roaches and other bugs....my kids only cared about a day off and while i did take them sledding those years, neither has any use for snow as adults.

I mentioned this last winter but I'm still surprised at how little ice there was at this time last year in what was not a warm winter by any means. I mean last winter at this time had less ice than 2006-2007 which is really surprising to me considering that winter was pretty much a torch from early December until mid January.

Wacky gfs run, has the WAA thump I mentioned and then redevelops a coastal somehow few days later on

Subsidence inversions are a very natural part of the winter climo in the West and it's tough to juggle record warmth in the higher elevations with record warmth in the valleys in December and January. Massive ridges in the West in the mid-winter often lead to colder than average conditions in the valleys. The PNW actually had the perfect storm of warmth in December with the jet stream lashing us the entire month and enough warm air advection in the higher elevations to screw them up as well. Down in CA they were far enough removed from the jet for the inversion to hold at the lower elevations.

And going way back to ArizWx and the guy from Michigan-Lake Effect

The cold this weekend has moderated for the past several runs on GFS. Run of the mill arctic cold snap with a bitter wind chill and 30-40mph winds.

-25 wind chills!

If I’m not mistaken @donsutherland1 mentioned just yesterday that once we get to mid-February and beyond, the WPO becomes less important

We GFS for Valentines day weekend

GFS OP sticking with an overrunning event hitting our CAD late next Friday.

AiGfs just went all rain with all medium and long range storms fwiw.

Not the strongest HP up top but you can see how it’s forcing a secondary

He was funny as fuck. I loved how he trolled a certain poster.

what is the average for new brunswick..around 28? so going by that we are a hair over average....

He chose not to participate here anymore, during COVID. Nothing else to add to that, and not the place.

That guy was hilarious. It was a bit of a punch when he disclosed he was sick and shortly after the blizzard of 2016 he stopped posting. I know I'm not alone when I feel some pain thinking about that stuff. This subforum has been pretty legendary. I will always remember the OGs like Ian, Wes, Matt, etc during events. The clever humor was hilarious at times and the analysis was A+. It was much harder back then before we had 50 models running every 15 mins and model output really needed some skills to interpret. I learned an encyclopedia of stuff basically just hanging out and having fun. I still think this place is incredible for both laughs and knowledge but it's different now. Like everything in life and online , it's always evolving and changing. The stretch from 2006-16 was a class of its own. Eastern was great too but chaotic af during events lol.