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It's the anniversary of Helene, people in the southeast are justifiably on edge.

I'm expecting another fairly shitty season for eastern snowfall overall. Recent culprits are not applicable this season though. More generally, for those of you who swear by ONI, the Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean are relatively cold at the tropical latitudes, so subtracting out their heat as part of global warming doesn't 'enhance' the R portion of the RONI for La Nina strength as in prior recent years. The cold current by Japan looks it has woken up a bit, and the Atlantic and Indian Ocean are both colder relative to last year than the tropical Pacific. The North/South Pacific are moving toward a +PDO slowly as well with the warm C by the eastern side of the basin showing and the cold tongues showing to the west. Colder tropics overall should mean less MJO relevance in the warm and cold phases, less convection for thunderstorms. High solar is typically a modifier on MJO progression east to west/intensity if you look at it. We also had pretty favorable patterns for sea ice this year, so there should be pretty substantial cold build early on. Last September was pretty cold in Northeast Russia and that cold kept sloshing around until it was forced out of the Arctic in January in a pretty severely cold national pattern for a few weeks. That part of Russia looks pretty cold again this September. I don't consider the AMO/PDO to have flipped this year. But even 'moving' toward opposite phases should reduce the drought tendencies we've seen in the US over the blue areas. You can see last year was close to the exact opposite of figure A (+PDO/-AMO). We should see a much better/wetter winter nationally with the Atlantic much colder and the NE Pacific so much warmer, especially as the cold tongue begins to assert itself by Japan. In the months/seasons with most direct influence from AMO/PDO on precipitation you should see completely different rain/snow patterns to last year. Colder AMO should alter Southeast ridge positioning, independent of the type of La Nina that shows. A lot of the storms that went to bring big rains/snows to KY/TN last year should be east/west of their positions last year, with the PDO hurting KY/TN moisture. My main issue for NE snow is that precip patterns nationally usually have specific signatures nationally in the Summer that have not really shown up for 2025. I think the subtropical jet will not cooperate for eastern storms, even though at times the Northern stream of the jet will go pretty far south this winter.

More of the same in the 2020s? No thank you.

92/62 for the day. Warmest day of the month. Just had a small shower roll thru after 17 days of no rain. Dropped a quick 0.19"

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in recent years? when has it ever not been tough to maintain a -EPO indefinitely?

prolonged deluge

We get noise from takeoffs from ewr but I'm so used to it I don't notice. Occasionally Lufthansa's 747 (the only remaining 747 into ewr) will fly overhead on its descent

snow season will be here soon enough.. the weather has been so boring so I'm trying to find anything remotely exciting..

Tropical Storm Delta in 2005 is the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record to reach Africa at any point in its life - in Delta's case, it was as a moderate extratropical cyclone. It also caused significant wind damage to Canary Islands:

And there's the first statement from GSP this evening.

I probably had like 80" those seasons....sign me up.

You should change your moniker to I need hurricanes.

81 today. No airplane noise out here. Occasionally a plane from farmingdale I guess, but we aren’t in a flight path. I am a mile from the LIE so I do hear the traffic from time to time which stinks

I was messing around with decades-old tornado outbreaks. It seems that May 1995 was had a near-record high 392 tornadoes (month of May only.) I'm not really sure which May had more tornadoes, but obviously we can say that April 2011 had more. Many tornadoes affected Illinois.

Hwrf into Hatteras

Wait 3 weeks before winter and Chris will hook it up.

A good exercise I like to participate in is "opposite outcome"....give me a few examples of why this season could turn out more favorably from the perspective of snow/cold enthusiasts, than you envision....it helps to guard against preconceived thought processes, which is something we are all guilty of from time to time.

95 at 3:10. Go away, I can't have Oktoberfest with this weather! Eyeing that possible low of ~49 next week.

Big slow moving storms moving into the far SW Mountain Counties. GSP stated in their afternoon disco that rain chance increase over the Mountains overnight into tomorrow morning. Nothing looks severe, but there is so very rich tropical moisture out there and heavy rainfall is a possibility.

Another wild 18z Euro run.... has a 966 mb and a 933 mb hurricane off the coast.

Humberto brings the count to 8/2/2 and the forecast gives me enough confidence to score from 8/3/2. Apparently there is some potential to go to 8/3/3 eventually and if so the scoring will be adjusted. It will improve all scores except two already at zero error for two majors; those two scores would drop by 1.0. Scores with errors of 1 for major hurricanes will improve by 1; scores with errors of 2 will improve by 2 (from 3 to 1 error deductions); scores with errors of 3 will improve by 3, etc.

If you have been reading my blogs, you would know I expect neither wall-to-wall -WPO or -EPO...that said, show me on the doll where the negative modes of those respective teleconnections hurt you? It's okay to mention them....confront these traumatic thought patterns head-on.

Humberto yea moves towards Bermuda then out to sea. I am pretty sold on that. However, what is south of Puerto Rico I am not so sure. That would become Tropical Storm Imelda. I would think Imelda is a threat to the United States East Coast South Carolina to New England. Humberto leaves stage right then high pressure builds and traps Imelda forcing Imelda toward the United States East Coast next week. Time to watch, I think. I am always weary of tropical systems developing in September and October down near Puerto Rico Hatti because chances are they are heading up the east coast with troughness around to our west and high pressure to the east. See below I’d say time to monitor.

Same s*** different day.