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That's what Steve and I have been talking about recently. This could go from drought to too much real quick.

Yup heavy rain and these storms are just training also.

We've saving all the above normal temps for this winter.

Right? It's probably going to be beautiful next weekend. Always happens when people start looking at those stupid charts and stuff.

I’m not as educated on some of this enso stuff as a lot of you guys are so I didn’t say anything but I was thinking the same as you just said. I feel like 2023 didn’t have that but I could be wrong.

1. 2023 never got close to a +3 as far as I know. 2. Prior to today’s 0Z run, the highest CFSv2 progged peak mean I can recall seeing is this that I saved from 12/11/2023, which had 2 getting to +3 amp and the other 2 to +2 amp with a peak mean of ~+2.45: 3. However, this run turned out to be way off as just 6 days later it had this, a progged peak of only ~+1.45 and actual peak was only in the low +1s from other runs I saved: 4. Today’s 0Z by a good margin had the highest progged mean that I’m aware of any run I’ve seen because otherwise I would have saved them: insane progged peak probably (since can’t see green member peak) ~+3.5!! 5. But the newest run (12Z) came back to Earth quite a bit from the insane +3.5 although it’s still progging a potent peak at +2.3, which is still the 3rd highest progged peak I’ve saved: 6. Keep in mind that the first time I had seen these charts wasn’t til 2023. Thus I have no idea what it peaked at in prior strong El Niños. 7. Keep in mind that while I like to follow this guidance, it is the CFSv2. So, although well worth following, always take with a grain, especially out 2 weeks+! @Stormchaserchuck1 @snowman19

79 was the high today.

Upstate is legitimately getting enough rain to end the drought there

A rose at the New York Botanical Garden:

I just picked up another inch and its still raining putting me over 5.5 in the past 5 days and more rain coming this evening. I think we could get close to 10 inches by the upcoming weekend...could easily turn into too much too quickly.

And I managed to squeeze out another 0.05" this morning for a 6-day total of 3.36" for the event and 4.46" for the month so far. Much warmer today (and the sun popped out this afternoon), getting me to a high of 74 after a low of 57. It's currently 69 with dp 67.

All guidance has rain north . Even of Route 2. It kind of dives SE. like BTV to BoS and out

Saturday could be absolute dogshit south of pike too.

Heavy rain and thunder.

4.1 inches of rain since Wednesday. Went on a walk yesterday and all the rivers were flowing and the ponds/lakes were full with some minor flooding.

Why are you so upset about next weekend? It’s mainly a CnE north rain Friday night into Saturday. Sunny Sat Pm and Sunday with nape Sun . South of pike prob 60’s Sat afternoon and warmer Sunday . And after that all modeling goes into summer mode . Get ahold of self

It’s probably approaching 1.5” for the day around here. North and south maybe 2? I’m kind of between the heaviest but probably not too far behind.

4.5” in 5 days here. Pretty much everything this month fell in 5 days .

But drought!!!

a total of 3.93" of rain from this system. the most rain I've seen in years.

It’s remained west of us all day, but some more storms look to be popping on trajectories that may get us again. Regardless, you remain the winner amongst us foothills folk.

Getting dark earlier is better

Yeah you’ve shared that with me before. I love it up here, makes traveling for work easier when it’s a nice place to spend a week

The Euro out by 1AM 365 days/yr? I sure could get behind that! I agree about the importance of knowing history to avoid repeating it. In addition to that, however, I’m worried that the influence of the almighty $ may be interfering with objectivity/logic like is often the case.