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  1. Past hour
  2. MJO812
  3. MJO812
  4. cleetussnow
    Yallsnow.com at least he says he will go back in march and grade his forecast. My guess is he will bust high in the eastern 3rd of the US. If anyone in NYC wouldn’t sign up for 24 inches at this stage, they’d have to get their head examined. NYC will be lucky to get 10.
  5. bluewave
    Excellent ECMWF global temperature forecast for October. MONTH MEDIAN 90% RANGE SEAS5 DIRECT DRIVING Oct 2026 1.72 1.56-1.88 1.75
  6. NorthHillsWx
    It needs to get going fast. Counting October we have finished BN precip 13 of last 14 months now. Just insane longevity to this drought. Streamflows around the area are all at or approaching record lows and lake levels are crashing. We absolutely have to reverse this over the winter or next summer is going to be rough.
  7. Terpeast
    In 23-24, we were getting rain from every STJ system. Just for a week or so, we got cold air and it snowed from two northern stream systems that trended south last minute. Ironically, the STJ had shut off for that week. Part of me thinks that in the not so distant future we’d be rooting for La Ninas since we can still get cold air in those winters. Just hope for a typically nina suppressed storm track to shift NW for major I-95 snows, since jet streams and storm tracks have been shifting north across the board. Those two misses last year? Get them both to hit, and we may have given 1995-96 a run for its money.
  8. JACKASS
    40’s for everyone?
  9. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  10. IronTy
    The big ones always do...
  11. bluewave
    Non-linear climate shifts often present with small sample sizes due to their abrupt nature. Non-linear climate dynamics combined with small sample sizes create severe statistical and predictive challenges because the Earth's system can cross critical thresholds or experience abrupt state shifts that short or sparse historical records fail to capture. [1, 2, 3] Climate change alters snowfall in a non-linear fashion, meaning snow loss remains gradual up to a critical temperature threshold, after which it drops off sharply
  12. EasternLI
    Usually feel like 50mb is a pretty good proxy for where the cold is. We don't have any on this side of the planet. Whatever that event is in the stratosphere. It's booting it all to the other side of the planet. Ultimately, it's dumping into the Pacific. Increase that gradient? Just going to turbocharge the Pacific jet by doing that... Thinking torched thoughts...
  13. eyewall
    Most likely but I will take it! We may slip back into Extreme Drought soon.
  14. Chinook
    Here's the RRFS ensemble, which we'll all have to use for general purposes, since the NAM and standard convection allowing models are ending! tornado chances upcoming today
  15. Elim72
  16. JenkinsJinkies
    They’re WAY more optimistic than what I predicted.
  17. Elim72
    It's going to be a long cold winter that never ends.
  18. Chinook
    In-Fa was very impressive at 130 kt, and slowed down, did a small loop, and is now quite sheared
  19. Today
  20. JenkinsJinkies
    That won’t stop the weenies from saying it’ll make its own cold air.
  21. Chicago Storm
    This change was actually set to occur in mid-October, but was pushed back due to the REFS/RRFS failing it's final test prior to that time. But yes, unless there is some very last minute shift, that change will occur tomorrow.
  22. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  23. A-L-E-K
    Rookie numbers.gif
  24. Ephesians2
    La Nina base state seems to account for most (not all) of the warmth in the east
  25. Chicago Storm
    October 2026 finished tied as the 6th warmest October on record in Chicago. Warmest September 1. 64.3° - 1963 2. 62.2° - 1971 3. 62.1° - 1947 4. 61.9° - 1920 5. 61.4° - 1900 6. 60.8° - 2026 6. 60.8° - 1956 6. 60.8° - 1879 9. 59.8° - 1924 10. 59.7° - 2024 10. 59.7° - 2021 10. 59.7° - 1953
  26. dendrite
    RONI is in line historically, but with the background Pacific state we’re still pushing the limits magnitude wise. I suppose we don’t know what was happening when Erik the Red was frolicking through southern Greenland.
  27. Chicago Storm
    October 2026 finished tied as the 6th warmest October on record in Chicago. Warmest September 1. 64.3° - 1963 2. 62.2° - 1971 3. 62.1° - 1947 4. 61.9° - 1920 5. 61.4° - 1900 6. 60.8° - 2026 6. 60.8° - 1956 6. 60.8° - 1879 9. 59.8° - 1924 10. 59.7° - 2024 10. 59.7° - 2021 10. 59.7° - 1953
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