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Euro and EuroAI ensembles both hinting at some development towards the end of next week with the next wave moving off Africa. Conditions will be very hostile in the Caribbean, as one would expect in a Nino year. Should a brief TS develop, it won't last past the Lesser Antilles. Not much going for the Atlantic.

Usually you can by then.. sun gets higher cars feel warmer getting in them..

I think everyone’s excepted that this winter is lost and will likely be very mild. That will probably make it more enjoyable, the few small snow events we get

May have to turn the page on 1/12 this winter

silliness

Ok so when it's February 12th we're turning the page, moving on

Middle to end of next week then its time for you folks to turn the page

exactly what data do they use to determine drought conditions and severity ? I have doubts as to whether some areas in NJ are still in a severe drought after the heavy rain totals the last month

Gotta wonder if we make the CSU 50 ACE points that are forecast. I'll take the under. Shear is nuts as we hear into the peak of the season. I think close in development is our best shot at something interesting. Not happening over the next 10 days though. Caribbean looks to be shut down for the duration with El-Nino induced shear at full tilt.

Not a cloud in the sky and thick

Expecting a few more shortwaves to move through the upper-level flow as well as a trailing cold front early next week, bringing additional chances for showers to southern New England Monday night into Tuesday. The FROPA could bring a small amount of relief from the heat for the start of the next work week, but humidity levels likely will remain elevated through mid-week. remember they said big cool down coming next week

Same two locations. S coast and WNE. Maybe I’ll hear some distant banging

Low of 72 and .73" of rain. Carry on.

Northern areas closer to the heaviest rains around SW CT like BDR this summer have moved out of drought conditions. But the drought continues further south. Though there was also some slow improvement in NJ also. THE BRIDGEPORT CT CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 5 2026... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2026 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 82 202 PM 97 2005 83 -1 83 MINIMUM 64 458 AM 55 1951 68 -4 68 AVERAGE 73 76 -3 76 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 1.56 2017 0.14 -0.14 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 0.99 0.67 0.32 0.08 SINCE JUN 1 15.84 7.76 8.08 2.34 SINCE JAN 1 30.11 25.89 4.22 16.94

I think areas east too. Some models show stuff on south coast seabreeze. There’s good instability SoP.

Congrats WNE again. Everything shows then dying river East

a few questions about exactly what will happen across the region the next few days How much sunshine will be able to break through some of this thick cloud cover ? When and where will any storms and heavy rains develop ?

Localized drenchers last 24 hours.

There’s only a precious few , that don’t love dews

I don't understand on how he can can be so confident in below average temps throughout the NE in the most intense El Nino on record when there is no incidence of the NE being below average in an intense El Nino in recorded history. He said that he would explain early on, but never really did....just offered some vague rhetoric concerning +PNA inducing backdoor arctic shots. Arctic infiltration from the north is the most efficient avenue for arctic deliver in the NE, which was evident in the Feb 2016 outbreak, however, it is highly unlikely to be prevalent enough to be reflected in the seasonal mean. Above average snowfall virtually everywhere east of the apps?? I could see it for the mid atl, but not all throughout the NE....none of the intense events have pulled that off. He seems to be going with a 1957/1965 outcome, but I think the magnitude of ENSO and the solar cycle make that a tough sell this year.

https://x.com/PettusWX/status/2085091579224555843 James Pettus @PettusWX 16h Classic summertime feel with our upcoming pattern late this week into next week. 500mb flow will keep things active in the northeast quadrant of the CONUS with multiple storm and severe weather chances. Most if not all of which will be mainly damaging wind threats. Generally most of the eastern half of the CONUS will have isolated summertime storm chances with a few severe chances perhaps mixed in. Out west, mostly dry with isolated rain chances continuing in and around Arizona. Unfortunately, it looks like our wildfire risk will persist. As always, stay tuned to your local NWS office for day by day official forecasts.

Floridews on that map, swampy today