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Yea light rain here followed by a squall line and outta here a bit dramatic.

Friday gonna be an s tier posting day for us real heads

That is quite the signal from the 18z GEFS

Just had a heavy downpour... high rate of 5.14"/hour. Picked up 0.14" in a couple minutes. Winds gusting nicely behind it.

Gonna need to be in for this one with that retreating high.

Overnight will be 48 hours out from the start in the CWA, so they're going to have to go with a watch with the evening or early morning package.

Yeah lotta d2-3 euro vaporware big dogs in the modern era

Looking over guidance from today, the big thing that sticks out is how much wetter the Euro/EPS are compared to almost all other guidance. We have seen through the years that the Euro tends to be on the drier side more often than not, and when it is, it is usually close to reality. So, it'll be interesting to see how it does with being on the wetter side this go-around.

They’ve been torched badly, as have all of us, with dramatic shifts in guidance within less than 48 hours the past 5 years. This time, they’re boxed in by the holiday so guessing will have to jump the gun on headlines overnight if trends hold. And again, given climatology this would be a substantial event for this period in the season.

Multiple times.

Looks 12/ 2007 ish

CJ is the worst of the worst.

Sign me up, still snowing at 84

Yes indeed! (WB 18Z GEFS is better!) (last picture comparison to 12Zz)

Shaping up to be another GFS vs Euro battle. The GFS remains amped, the Euro remains mostly ots/suppressed.

LOT is 100% going to play it safe this go-around, after the single person blunder with the LES event.

18z GEFS coming in with a pretty evenly distributed amount of members going for snow, too far north and rain, and too far south and miss. The track of this storm and its behavior is dependent on many factors, namely timing, track of the shortwave as it rounds the base of the TPV lobe, and how strong the TPV can actually suppress this thing south. It is certainly possible that the TPV suppresses this storm too far south which is what the Euro AI is showing. I think the GFS solution of a changeover to rain is unrealistic, and a much more likely fail mode is that the shortwave is too flat and goes out to sea. The 18z Euro should be in range tonight if not for the early morning 06z run, so we'll have more guidance to go off of for this 18z suite

18z Gefs is a bit better on snowfall fwiw than 12z.

In the wake of the storm that brought rain to the region last night into early today, colder air will rush into the region tonight. The closing days of November will be much colder. There is potential for New York City's Central Park to experience its first freeze of 2025. The 1991-2020 normal first data is November 21. The 1961-1990 baseline was November 11. Last winter's first freeze occurred on November 30. The opening days of December will turn somewhat milder. However, colder conditions could begin to develop during the second half of that week and then continue into or through the second week of December. Severe cold appears unlikely through at least the first 10 days of December. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +20.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.232 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.9° (1.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Not here. Saw blue sky for 5 min

It's the 50th anniversary of "Jaws" this year...hey, that's gotta be worth something!

Pretty please that’s my birthday

Rather it show it over amped at this point than under amped. Hard to come back from lack of energy, easier to get it to de amplified

No rainbow here, but saw a pretty cool silverish/blue tint to the clouds leading into sunset. Got breezy as well.