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You have the greatest hits of subjective posters (3 of them) feeding the general pessimism from the others. I mean I get it...typical year on weather forums, lol.

Lol not what I would call a SE ridge.. Follow the height lines. One could argue that would produce a more favorable storm track for our area than the previous run, which might tend towards being too far south. The biggest difference is the ridging poking into Greenland, and it isn't really that much different. I pay less attention to the colors on these super LR tools. Look at the height lines and imagine the flow.

But its not showing warmth but yet the same people think winter is already over or its going to be warm. No signals at all of warmth for maybe a few days ahead.

What are you talking about ? This forum is getting ridiculous. December is below normal on the weeklies.

I posted something similar a while ago, but was able to update it with the newest Fall pic. Looking into my backyard. Always feel lucky to have 4 seasons, and it's really neat to see it in a picture form. I didnt have a good spring Pic, had to use one from last May, but now I think I want to do a comparison shot every year.

If Simon Lee is correct about 96-97 being a stratospheric analog, then a strengthening SPV into January would fit

Both progs are really cold in Canada. I see Eduggs is in Jersey so I see why he might be looking for something a little different. I don’t mind being near the battle ground with SE Canada BN in temps.

December is trending in the wrong direction which is very concerning for an La Niña winter and a big SSWE in November

Then I stand corrected on that part of my post. I thought December, 83 was +QBO, my bad on that. But the other aspects I mentioned are definitely correct

You are about as objective as a politician answering questions during a press conference.

My back still hurts from that 2016 event ha

SER asserts itself in the latest WB weeklies. (Today versus yesterday's run.) Whether a blip or the start of a trend away from a December to remember TBD.

Day 10+ progs don’t usually hold up though.

I mean, this highlights a problem you bring up all the time about people like snowman spreading their agenda, because here you do a similar thing. Whenever the weeklies show something good you're like "it'll be cold" but whenever the weeklies trend bad you cover it up as shown above.

getting some low grade mammies from these elevated waa showers

Unless this data is wrong, then you are incorrect. 1983-84 winter was a -QBO winter.

You don’t see any warmth, Anthony?

Why? I’m not going crazy. We look at long range guidance ITT every day. This is mainly a long range thread. You just posted weeks 3-4, for example. I’d rather have the most up to date.

You will go crazy if you take every run verbatim . I wish the weeklies went back to weekly.

Where is the warmth ?

As per @GaWx research, 1983 did not have any stratospheric warmings in November or December. Furthermore, 1983 was a volcanic winter with a volcanic stratosphere; courtesy of a VEI-5 tropical eruption the year before in 1982. It was also a +QBO winter and a had a strongly +PDO

Yes, that's the thing many are a bit upset about, Models have expanded it's reach and extended a bit more over time Larry. Of course, that's the nature of these things as we know.

The individuals show extreme variability: torched or frigid. The means are blending the extremes and timing differences. I see hallmarks of the dreaded warm/wet (cutter) to dry/cold repetitive scenario: persistent ridge in southeast, hints of a trof out west, low heights across the Canadian Maritimes. I think it's a red flag that negative height anomalies never progress east into the Deep South. Your comment about a possible SWFE is a good one I think. I could see a few of them in succession if the day 10+ progs hold up... would seem to favor the north country.

yeah, was looking at that a couple days ago, actually. Thankfully, California is running way above normal for precip on the year.

The euro stuff he had. I think some gfs stuff is out there.