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Estimated precip totals from yesterday's storm

BML vis is dropping with -23°. Could be trapped wood smoke…could be some IC/diamond dust.

Should be plenty to talk about in ORH on Saturday, drop by

Buckshot models. Wasn’t the EPS coldest just a few days ago? Coldest night of the season so far here. WXW1: 7.4° WXW2: -14.1° Shame I wasn’t there to get the VP2 up and running but that’s my first priority when I head back.

11/11 0.1 11/30 0.1 12/02 0.2 (sleet) 12/05 3.8 12/06 1.5 12/08 0.5 12/09 5.1 Total 11.3

It’s snowing this morning? Tiny flakes but heavy. Enough to cover the cars and elevated surfaces pretty quickly.

Only a 132 hours away ... I guess we give it a shot ( lol, this crew gives 360's an at bat). Still, we are challenged by immensely fast atmosphere. Most are aware by now that this shortens the outer time range where confidences fade to randomness, considerably. Agree with Ryan that blends/ens clusters are the best bet. For now, the EPS does have a vague signal on the 14th, suggesting the operational EC is bit of a jacked outlier ( 00z ), but am noticing that those members are below 1000 mb it seems 1/3 of the members are likely significant, while 2/3rds struggle with cirrus clouds. Interesting range

It’s possible it was a little more last night but I didn’t measure. Most everything non paved is covered so it’s really pretty regardless

Got down to 15.7F this morning. Currently 17.

Models have a situational bias based on the specific weather regime. Long range models tend to underestimate the warmth in warmer patterns. None of the long range models saw the warmth in December 2015 from November forecasts. They also underestimate the cold from long range forecasts at times in the fewer colder patterns we get. As the recent November forecasts missed the first half of December cold. This was also the case before the transition to colder in 2014-2015. It’s just that the climate has become so skewed toward warmth, as Guy shows below, that there is much more opportunity to underestimate warmth than cold since it occurs so much more frequently.

Coldest night of the season here, Got down to -12°F

JB said this this morning: I am keying on the WPO and the MJO. There is alot of warm air in the pattern day 11-20, but the WPO favors it getting cut down coming to the east. In fact opposite models, there should be an eastern trough week 3 and dont be surprised if the models head that way. Its a rare an unholy alliance, but I think the GEFS is the better model here and I am leaning on it Somethings gotta give, Either the big telleconnections are wrong or the temperature pattern on the euro is overwarmed

I still think we see a strong +NAO stretch in January, which will lead into a period of +TNH later in the month.

It looked like more than that with your video and looks more impressive than ours. We have a ground cover just about 4 miles N/NE of RDU. I would say 0.25-.3 looks about right for our area. I wonder what RDU was officially? I haven’t checked. .

Yes, this is still my thought process.

Looking at the ten day, the coming cold doesn't seem to be as... cold as they had initially advertised.

The alpenglow was pretty spectacular this morning around 645. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

00z Euro and Skynet ensembles definitely had a solid signal for Sunday. Hopefully that stays. With so much uncertainty with these individual s/ws sort of have to just roll with the ensembles at this point.

-6.5°F seems like it'll do it for the low here. Hit that at 2:00AM and it's been bouncing around -6.0° since then. Pretty sunrise illuminating the hills though!

I mean for Friday. Let’s get RIC more snow than Ray for December.

Gotta love Jayflation

6z is meh for Sunday

Looks like 4 will do it for the low here.

Just saw the euro for VA. Let’s get them a 12–15” December before mid month. I feel like crying.

4 will do it for the low here. Sucks to see that warm up heading out way next week.