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I knew I had seen the surface maps showing surface Highs moving off the coast to our east and NE. I found it. Looks like we may sant to get used to it for the winter if the Euro seasonal is correct. The link belowvis for the period of Dec-Feb. If you scroll forward to J-M, it's even stronger. As long as we get better cold into the area, we should still have our shots at snow. Next week's problem is only being 3-4 degrees too warm, which is more a function of the early season. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_mslp?area=NAME&base_time=202511010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202512020000

Come on man. Yesterday you were saying it was Rains to Maines. I still don't think it'll be that far out to see ( or that this is the final solution ). I think it'll be a light to moderate event for most of Southern New England and to Central New England.

slightly west but still meh

Maybe I will be wrong on some aspects, which is fine...I'll learn from it....but all I ask from those who comment on my work is to accurately reference what the forecast was.

Keep thinking what? It's not subjective...I told you what my forecast was...that is objective fact.

3.4” storm total here at home thus far.

I can tell you what will definitely be wrong, the absolutely asinine wishcast that there is going to be a major SSWE, total wind reversal and an SPV split by Christmas. You know, the one from the moron in PA that he follows and pirates stratospheric graphics from. That crap is going down in flames….And how he can say you were wrong with the cold for December and the trough positioning in your winter forecast for December is wrong on November 29th is simply mind-blowing. I mean unless he’s psychic and clairvoyant

Keep thinking that. I will bump this when I get snow next month. Carry on with snowman19.

Has to be great for the local economy up here to get off to such a stellar start .

Looks like we all get a little from this event Tuesday. .

Would the Euro or even a compromise even be snow in interior SNE?

Deja vu to last winter where the euro was often the snowiest

I used December 2000 as an analog for the warming in that it would narrowly miss a reversal, but also mentioned December 1981 as an example if it were to actually reverse. I said that the MJO would staddle the border of MJO phase 8 and perhaps make it into phase 8 at a reduced amplitude, which would allow other factors to potentially modulate the pattern. And I'm not sure how in the hell you are grading the nuances of the 500mb composite for a month that has yet to begin. You are absolutely desperate for snow in Central Park, I get it.

It’s prob gonna be a compromise lime usual. But evena compromise isn’t that great because the trend has been to keep the midlevels kind of open. So it’s gonna be weaker with dynamics and QPF.

I'm interested is seeing whether the Euro's snowy start to the run will continue to the end as it often seems to do.

Still waiting for the snow to start flying here. I’ve lived in my house for almost 6 years now and this is looking to be our 2nd largest storm since I moved in.

Extremely meteorological forecast of where I think the best chance to score 1" of snow from the event could end up. If you are north of the red line, potential. South, probably not. EXTREMELY METEOROLOGICAL

Either it’s the GFS camp, too wound up and warm with a track too close or now the EURO/UKMET slides out southeast and a nuisance. Speaking for SNE of course

Not a fan of 12z. Noticable shift towards the GFS-like emphasis of vorticity near the Great Lakes and less in the South. This leads to quick warming of the boundary layer. This was observed across all guidance except the GFS, which shifted a touch towards the consensus. The duration has also been shortening. This is now looking like a relatively quick hitting 6-8 hours of precipitation. A few days ago is was stretched out across as much as 18-24 hours.

Pivotal Kuchera

Around 1" on the euro but that is the whitest guidance

I stopped reading your response right there. Either you didn't actually read my outlook, or you're illiterate to some extent.

Euro still flat

Would like to see picture of said shoe.