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Latest HRRR runs look pretty decent

Yes but we just don’t use it in the shorter term since we have great short term models. If we can rely on AI as a solid tool for medium range, then that has a lot of value.

Ground is quickly whitening in Winston-Salem

Had to be warm when it tries to develop a glacier in your front yard…. lol

The big thing is getting that STJ energy to eject E 12z ai made a huge progression change in doing that. The prior 6z run buried it under the ridge If it really does head east this is the best chance for a MECS in a decade. .

JFC the Euro AI Ensemble has a 3 day snow mean for Jan 25-27 is like 6+" I think, have to wait for slow ass wxbell to confirm

How many epic patterns does it take to get an average winter around here?

Conditions were great, the upgrades in snowmaking they made in the summer are noticeable. About damn time they invest in Wisp - now they just need to install faster lifts at the main chairs.

If I were the boss I'd say ok...snap a few pictures of you and the family at the Key West monument with today's newspaper in the shot. I honestly would do that if someone fed me a line like that. That is like giving CPA's time off during tax season. Should have restrictions. I know you were making a joke but wouldn't you think they would have some rules for time off in the dead of Winter?

The ad placement on their new thing is truly one of the most frustrating things I've ever had to endure. I really can't tell if it's on purpose to get you to pay or what because I refuse to believe that they'll put money into developing a new product that's clearly meant for mobile devices at least in part and then not verify something that simple.

Round 1 shoveling done. Light snow coming down in this little weenie band over my backyard.

Hopefully the radar begins to fill in soon. We'll need every minute of it. Radar looks good to our south

31° Sun dimly visible at times

That would shut this area down for a week. I would rather it be sunny and 70 than more than 2 inches of freezing rain. Trees and power lines would be down, with no power for a week or more.

Tappered down here just a little light snow. 33f humidity 99% dew point 33f I would suspect heavier bursts of snow as the colder drier air mixes with all this low level moisture left around.

Snowing in Northeast Winston

Snowing here in Dry Fork,VA! Officially another trace for the season lol

Back to light snow now.

Radar building across Delmarva and most of the Delaware/Maryland mesonet obs show a NW wind now. Looks like precip should be picking up in intensity for the southern NJ folks here within the hour.

With that much cold......suppression city. This ain't our first rodeo!

Enjoy for the next 4 hrs guys.

Winter Weather Advisory for Lancaster & Lebanon counties extended to 6 pm this evening. Radar implies another coating to one inch of snow.

An inch plus here.

That is a nice plume of moisture to our south over the eastern Carolina's. This storm could have been a real contender if there was some phasing involved and the low was closer in and tracked to near or just inside of the benchmark. As it is all that deep moisture is going to slide out to our south east. Just saying what could have been.

That’s why I like them more for the extended and mid range. Granted that was an AI ens to begin with, but even with the “op” AI I’m still hesitant to use use them close in except for trends. Yeah, the coarseness tightens up as we get closer, but it hasn’t been to regular op gradients. But it’s a new tool and we’re all figuring out how to use it.