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Hmmm....

Looking more like a reflective event at this point in time.

There hasn’t even been one 3+ day long Dec MJO phase 8 since 2017 and the one before that was way back in 2009! So, if the models are right with their 3++ day long phase 8, it would the first time in 8 years and only the 2nd time in 15 years! A whopping nearly 80% of 3+ day long Dec phase 8 periods averaged colder than normal at Raleigh though with lots of variation. When amplitude is <1.5, that rises even further to 85% along with an average of 5.2 F BN. If it’s a pretty strong amplitude (1.5+), it actually averaged only 0.5 F BN at Raleigh. At Baltimore, it’s pretty similar for Dec phase 8 with 4.8 F BN for amp <1.5 but only 0.3 F BN for amp >1.5. Fortunately, most Dec phase 8 are <1.5 amp.

I drove up and hiked to the summit this AM. Funny, there was a dusting of real snow that was protected from the sun. They made snow today until about 930ish. Went into the lodge afterwards and tried to purchase my uphill pass but it's not for sale yet.

The big ten has won the last two national championships

How about models being off 10 degrees for thermal highs in 12 hours. Is that acceptable???

Put out today

But we dont know whats going to be realistic or not. We haven't seen a SSW this early in a long time.

Shhhhh My internal monologue sarcastically said something similar when I saw that run... But it looked less coherent with the EPO aspects... it's like it dropped below the threshold ( probably in error by doing so - ) where it's no longer forcing down stream over the continent by being too weak. That's why it has semblances of the NE Pac mode but dwindles. Goes without saying .. we don't sweat it beyond D7.

Hard to feel good about the trade off imby coming off a 14.1" snow season (RFD).

Good stuff everyone. I always learn something from a visit to this region of the forum.

From the video i have seen the lightning was mind-blowing. They also spoke about a possible microburst. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

It’s better to be realistic about the model errors beyond 10 to 15 days and the frequent repeating patterns. I get it that many on here like cold and snowy weather. But you want to see the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks shift in order to be more optimistic about our snowfall prospects.

The eff you mean “getting” dude you been here damn near 25 years youre old.

The first week of December was never on the table

Weather models have improved a lot in 20 years. We have data to prove it.

Fair enough. However, the example you were using was displaying basically the textbook la nina phase 7 response. We'll see how it goes. Another thing for consideration. The waters in that area of the globe have cooled significantly since last year. First image below is the difference between now vs 1 year ago. Enough so, that it's mostly near normal now in the equatorial band (10N-10S). With a non insignificant area having below normal temps even for a change (2nd image). A sight for sore eyes. So perhaps that factor can be muted this time.

you are just full of surprises

The one constant every December since 2011 from Philly to NYC Metro has been at least one 55°+ warm up between December 17th to 25th even when the long range models forecasts were cold like last year.

Exactly. 2014 and 2015 had a dominant +NAO and we were cold and very Snowy. +TNH and PNA along with a parade of Systems continually riding up into Eastern Canada that kept pulling the cross polar flow southward instead of it typically getting pulled under the +NAO and into the NATL.

Another bad post

Yeah. The Baja Cutoff is the Issue. If upstream blocking, 50-50 and -NAO were in place we could benefit from it as waves or impulses would travel eatestd from that Baja LP. But, as you alluded to that's not the Case.

I think the pattern finally starts to turn significantly colder/stormier towards the end of the month into early December. Model ensembles are pretty strongly hinting at this. You're definitely right that a lot of heat/dry records have been set in recent years, but...let's not be too prisoner of the moment. - Denver's driest year was way back in 1954 - Hottest temp of 105 was first recorded in the late 1800s and was tied in 2005 and 2012 but has not been touched since - Boulder's snowiest winter on record was 2019-20 - Denver's warmest year on record was 1981 So it could be worse. Also, there have been some impressive winter cold waves in the past decade or so. - two separate very cold waves in Feb 2025, the second which delivered a 12/-7 day on 2/19, about as cold as it gets that late in the season (though topped by an even more impressive event below) - DEN fell to -19 in the Jan 2024 cold wave. That was the coldest Jan temp since 1984. - Dec 2022 featured a -6/-24 day. That was the coldest max temp since 1990, the third coldest on record (-9 is coldest), and the low was one degree off the coldest temp recorded in the airport era (-25) - That was followed by a top tier blast in late Feb 2023, featuring a 7/-11 day at DEN on 2/23. The -11 broke the daily record by 11 degrees, and was the second latest a temp that cold had ever occurred - Feb 2021, another record-breaking cold wave. On Valentine's Day, DEN was 1/-14. That was followed by a low of -16 the next morning. The high was the coldest that late since 1962, and same for the low of -16.