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On the plus side, the -WPO should chip away at the negative PDO and maybe even set us up for end of month into January

I can hear the screams from a police cruiser in Manhattan

Yeah, that alaska vortex needs to move norther or weaken. Otherwise, it won't let shortwaves dig enough for us to develop storms with enough gulf moisture.

It also looks likely to persist through at least mid-December, if not longer.

Recent arrival here, relocating from NJ to Cincinnati. I was told there was less winter here! 5 inches Monday night, and now embedded in one of the more severe cold snaps I've experienced since 2018, It's been some time since I've experienced more than a week when highs barely touched freezing.

That's a frigid look just starting at the end of the eps last night... -WPO loading Canada with cold air. With SW US ridging is going to relay that SE... I'll roll the dice with that anytime.

Absolutely nothing gets past you.

Yep....Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Most boring "active" pattern I've ever seen. The three most prevalent words on the forum right now are inverted, trough and trying...all you need to know.

Can’t trust the NAM. I’m just gonna see if there can be any trend during today.

BOX thinks signal got stronger . Who knows Model guidance continues to show an inverted trough positioned across the region late Fri into Sat with subtle hints of convergence in the wind fields. This could potentially provide better forcing for a more organized band of precipitation. Can`t rule out a brief deformation-type band on the backside of the system later Saturday as cooler air pushes in from the west. Details still to be ironed out for timing of these more organized bands of showers and precip type.

The North trend is back better than ever. Looks like a great even for the central/Southern VA Piedmont. Still some hope for the Northern NC Piedmont, but fading

Below are a press release and a Q+A on the retracted paper. The problems with the original paper have been addressed and a new paper has been submitted. How do the results in the corrected version compare to the original: "The revisions did not significantly alter the central estimates, but did increase the uncertainty range they sat within. Correcting the underlying data for Uzbekistan and introducing additional controls to make the model more robust to outlier data and anomalies resulting from the transition between data sources changed the global median income loss from 19% (18.8%) to 17% (17.4%). Accounting for spatial correlation using ‘Conley standard errors’ did not affect the median, but did increase the uncertainty ranges, with the likely range of damages by mid-century increasing from 11-29% to 6-31%." https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/authors-retract-nature-study-on-economic-damages-from-climate-change-will-resubmit-for-peer-review https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/questions-and-answers-nature-study

Nothing too exciting over the next 10 days. Maybe it will change for next week.

Actually, maybe I’m wrong? SLK went from a SW to NNW wind on that temp crash. This is pretty cool to witness.

I think we can squeeze out a few raindrops up this way. Im looking forward to the BBQ weather on Christmas.

I am planning on going up to southern VA for this one. This is definitely their system more than ours.

Same in N.J. if you weren’t in Sussex, hence my name! .

I agree with this. You remember the 70’s and 80’s on LI? I remember cod and dry. Not snow like we got 2000-2018. 1996 was special because it truly was a one off on LI. Snow was always going “north and west “. Countless times predicted snow became cold rain. Many different components need to come together in order for it to snow on LI

Can a mod pin this?

Front’s not here and I dropped 5.6° in 25 minutes under this band.

And just over a week ago, almost everyone agreed and the models pointed out a good pattern for snow. Now nothing except cold.

“When one has been angry for a very long time, one gets used to it. And it becomes comfortable, like old leather. And finally... becomes so familiar that one can't ever remember feeling any other way.” .

some signs of life on the weekend wave with a handful of models now ditching the dampening duster and maintaining a decent wave east into N. IL hope we see more good trends today to keep the streak going

Nice to see the mid month warm up really muted, hopefully it’s not just waiting for the perfect time…