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Can only hope EURO backs off from this solution tonight when more data has been ingested.

So what about gfs being just as good, ukmet? Seems kinda like a off the hip comment

I live in Greene County at foot of mountains. I’ve definitely seen the downsloping winds warm up the air and play havoc with our potential winter storms time and time again. I’ve seen downsloping winds have Greeneville sitting at 45 and no precipitation and 10 miles north in Baileyton it’s 32 and snowing. Downsloping winds have been the snow killer (warmer temps, no precipitation) for us here many, many times. .

Of course, which is why I said we have a long way to go.

Maybe if you had bought him lunch instead pleading poverty and having him pay, you would have gotten a different opinion?

Because its phasing quicker each run and cutting into the Ohio valley!

Big difference with respect to who gets porked.

some of our more notable events have a transfer just below M/D line, and like JB always said, for the best snows ya gotta smell the rain. While I dont feel well smell any rain, we may hear it...pinger style. I'm still hoping we can keep the progressive look w/ less WAA worries. Just a nice clean snow event...please n thx.

I think he's also used to an era that you could have a 300 mile shift 24 hours prior to an event and it not be uncommon.

For my sake, let's hope it's age and not hard liquor.

Really. This one might be the one that breaks me. It's stupid to waste time looking at something that had so much agreement on the models for a big snowstorm here 4 days out only for it to change in less than 24 hours 3 days out.

I am just going to prepare to lose power for a week. Not a good feeling about any of this. GFS looked decent though.

Yeah I don’t know what we were thinking. We’re not in Pensacola where they get 8”-10” of all snow.

Yes mixing is clearly a concern now with the upper level support well to our northwest on Sunday. Heights and thickness values are surging during the day on Sunday. The CMC shoots the initial shortwave south of Chicago to near Detroit and Buffalo. Then on Monday the ULL is near Sault Ste. Marie... super amped! The Euro isn't too far off. If that's correct, we'll probably have more mixing issues faster than modeled on Sunday. We may not see it until Fri when the NAM is fully in range. The ski areas of the North Country are starting to look great for a long-duration snow event. That's usually a bad sign. The 500mb chart at 0z Monday would look like a rainstorm if you didn't see the preceding panels. I think we should pump the breaks on the Kuchera and NBM snowfall maps and hope for a flatter trof evolution in subsequent model runs.

anyone know of a application on the ios that I can use to create a snowfall map?

From Eric Horst: .

Spoken from the Godfather of KU storms, the literal U in KU, the man who co-authored the NE US snowstorm "bible". I am preparing now for the massive letdown over the next 90 hrs.

Good peeps down there in that form with some pretty reliable info. Entertaining as well.

Yeah clear on that map on the EMA striations that there’s onshore enhancement.

definite timing issues have to be worked out as the Euro brings it in very early Sunday morning and wants to mix it here in the afternoon - while the GFS only starts the snow in the late morning

Why would we want it to melt? I've had snow cover almost 40 days so far this winter. I'm hoping for 80.

Puts down a couple in spots

euro sucks, euro had no snow for the weekend at all until last minute

Well, we still have a couple of days, praying for a better solution, including a shutout.

Why is everyone sold on no snow for NC? and I don’t care about trends or what the models say. With so many pieces to this puzzle there’s no reason to throw in the towel. Maybe that’s my inner child speaking, but have a little hope. Come tomorrow night, if things are as sh”::! as they are right now model wise then I’ll concede with the rest of you.! :-)