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Greensboro

79-80 sucked but I think the next winter was one of the best I can remember up here. Seemed like it snowed every other day punctuated by big storms every week - 10 days.

Yay cold and dry

Greta is alive and stronger than ever

DT is about as accurate as Punxsutawney Phil

I just realized that today is the anniversary of the 2017 southern slider disaster. How fitting.

1.50 smaller flakes but accumulating well... headed to Charlottesville for work now..

If you look at the traffic cams I posted earlier it’s still not cold enough to even have snow on the main roads all the way into UVA Charlottesville currently.. https://511.vdot.virginia.gov/ I wouldn’t expect this area(Richmond/Short pump) to have any issues with the main roads at least until after 1pm or so .. This is going to be a mainly grass event in this area for the next few hours at least

HRRR is nice for RVA. Showing 5”

30 years since the mid 90s and over 100 years prior to that period isn’t a small sample size. What you describe as rigid is actually a very comprehensive approach which I have used with great success for long range outlooks. Since my approach is data driven, I haven’t come to any firm ideas yet on whether we can eventually shift back to at least some occasional benchmark tracks in the future. But the long term decline in snowfall has been unmistakable. So I leave open the idea of a bounce off these lows in coming years if we can weaken the Pacific Jet a bit. But this is very uncertain since the recent shifts have been so extreme.

We got heavy precip in Short Pump, however it’s not sticking. guessing that will change later.

Go look at all -QBO La Nina's that had any early strat warming (not full blown SSW). January is the coldest month with thise analogs unlike the +QBO LA Nina's that basically all end winter early JAN. No way to know if it shakes out that way but it is interesting nonetheless.

Lmao.

Eric Webb says coastal enhancement shuld occur

I was just looking at this on the GFS model, looks absolutely wild.

Some places in Virginia are going to see almost as much snow as we have seen the past 6 winters combined in 3 days before December 9th.

Some of the AI models are radically different on Day 10. It will be interesting to see which is modeled better.

IME, it's not very accurate with pinpoint stuff during snowstorms. Hourly runs are kinda jumpy. I personally don't like it much during the winter as it's often more misleading that other mesos like the 3k nam at close range. It can be good with summer thunderstorms. Especially lines of them but even then it can be jumpy beyond 6-8 hrs. Since i don't follow it much I could easily be wrong and it may be more reliable than i think.

Alright lets clear the air of this thread with an actual meteorological post! Looking forward to next Friday and our first potential northern crew non-skunk storm. As we know the NS is an absolute hot mess this week with vorticity flying around everywhere so the forecast is nowhere near set in stone. However, we can still try to pick out what to watch for! So lets start off with what goes right on the Euro which manages to snow over some of us. We can see our embedded vorticity max diving south over the central plains. The first thing that would help us out is a more pumped PNA ridge in order to have it become more amplified and further south (this is more important for me than most posters). However, we can also see that amplifying our vorticity in any way will help out! Compare this to the GFS Our shortwave never had a real chance. Look at that line of vorticity over NoVa and the bigger lobe above our shortwave acting as a squashing force due to its W-E orientation vs the Euros N-S. So, we should look for that line of vorticity to appear like the Euro as weaker and more out of the way. Additionally, we should look for a stronger shortwave with the lobe above it interacting positively via a N-S orientation. TDLR: We need less confluence ahead of the wave and good orientation of the lobe above the wave. Though, considering the amount of interactions no idea what will actually happen!

There's pretty good support for some wintry precipitation for the I-84 corridor early Wed. This has been trending colder for several days. Some guidance gets it as close as Morris, Rockland, Westchester counties. A cold Tue night will give some a chance, but the boundary layer will warm quickly early Wed. Does the initial precip. pass well to the north and then basically a cold front passage, or does it shift far enough south for a few hour burst of snow/IP/ZR... something to watch...

How dare you

Saturday was about as awesome as it can be with (sort of) 2 ways down. Gorgeous afternoon especially once the clouds cleared out.

Exactly. We just need to watch the trends today. That colder dryer air is pressing between Fredericksburg and Richmond right now. We need that low to crank to pull that down into the system for us to make any hay.

yeah I don't think anyone's looking for average or above average snowfall this year.

F**k Greta…that moron. She’s become very irrelevant very quickly.