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Even though it's a crappy year it's still pretty.

Is this for the end of the month event or for Sunday into Monday time frame? What are we seeing? It's still far out, but always nice to see some eye candy. I guess to get us ready for our disappointment over the winter time lol

The body of science is what it is. Citing it doesn't make one an "alarmist." By the way, from the Oxford English Dictionary: And for those who are interested in sea level rise, NASA provides a great site for seeing the projections. Images for one location from one scenario:

Yeah, cloudy with a few breaks of sun has been more like it.

12z GFS

lol so school is now selling shirts that say “The Hereford Zone has Faith in the Flakes” to help pay for his visit and I want to stab myself in my eyeballs

I’ve pointed out another flaw in his opinion above in the past. DT has previously stated a Nina shifting towards neutral during the winter as a good thing and used it to justify a forecast for a snowier winter. But when I ran the numbers there is absolutely no evidence to support this. Actually, a week Nina transitioning to enso neutral produces our absolute worst snowfall results of every enso grouping. That said, the logic he has provided behind why the enso becoming more neutral SHOULD be good is sound. The problem is it hasn’t happened. There must be some lag effect. I’ve theorized that it’s bad because you tend to still get a lack of STJ following a Nina into neutral, but Nina’s can actually be colder and if you lose that you end up with a still dry but warmer pattern. We need an actual Nino with the associated amplified STJ for it to help us.

What's going on with western pac water temps? They've fallen off a cliff in the past week or so. Was there a storm out there that churned the waters up or did some glacier just fall into the ocean? Warm blob is migrating east toward AK too.

it's windier here today than at any point during the "storm"

The PDO. We’ve been stuck in the most hostile PDO regime ever for like 6 years. We’ve set record low monthly values numerous times. Overall it’s been oscillating between moderately low and record low for the whole time. Until that changes and we break out of this current PDO cycle our snowfall luck won’t change much. We will continue to have god awful years with some meh kinda ok when we get lucky years but our baseline bar is going to be very low with this kind of PDO base state. We aren’t just in a -PDO. The longer term PDO cycles can last 15-30 years but within that are shorter term mini cycles and we are in an extreme -PDO cycle within the longer PDO. These are particularly hostile to snow. Yea we’ve had some previous similar cycles and those were also bad for snow. This cycle is similar WRT snowfall and what we would expect if you adjust snowfall downward for the 15-20% of snow climo we’ve lost. So this period is similar to say the extreme -pdo of the 70s and 50s but the snowfall results are about 20% worse because the whole snow climo has deteriorated about 20% regardless of the pdo. What’s troubling is this current extreme PDO is now extending past what is typical. These super negative periods don’t usually last beyond 5 or 6 years. So the were due index is through the roof. But I’ve also seen some speculation that the -PDO is being or at least enhanced by factors linked to longer term climate changes. So I guess the big question…is there another cyclical thing being added on top of the cycle we’re talking about. We should see snowfall improve once the PDO improves. But is the PDO taking on more of a negative base state in general?

GFS could be a decent fall severe weather event with several tornadoes for western and central PA Sunday. Could see a solid line of storms move across here overnight.

Even partly cloudy forecasts are not materializing. I did see mostly sunny and still see that for this area of NJ.

Actually, the forecast was for clouds between 11 am and about 2 PM (at least I think from Fox5 yesterday), however, I see your point. The NWS does say mostly sunny, while their Forecast Discussion does mention a frontal passage early this afternoon...

Dews officially dropping here once again. 66/53 at home.

Agree. We are already seeing some promising signs with a transition to a wetter pattern, which did not happen until Feb last year. Weak east based Nina, early northern snow cover build up, the early signs look pretty good. The PDO is negative, but it’s less negative than last year (-2.4 September 2025 vs -3.5 September 2024).

Ah so because one does not believe it is a significant threat (which most do not) if you fail on the 2nd part of that little test you are a Climate Denier. If that is true than are you as the dictionary says meeting the definition of a "climate alarmist" which is " a person who exaggerates the dangers of climate change and its potential impacts, often by using sensationalized language or promoting policies based on these exaggerated fears. ???

Recognizing cyclical/natural causes for climate change, alone, is insufficient. Climate change can be driven by cyclical/natural and human causes. "Climate change denial" or "climate denial" is a term that was developed to describe a position that rejects human-induced climate change. The Oxford English Dictionary defines climate denial as follows: "Rejection of the idea (or the evidence) that climate change caused by human activity is occurring, or that it represents a significant threat to human and environmental welfare."

Still a bit breezy, more sunshine, 65F. Feels much warmer than yesterday...

Again Don there is of course no such thing as a climate change denial movement - climate of course always changes correct?? That term is an example of what fake news is! Now the magnitude of any impact that man may have had on the many varied climate cycles the earth has gone through is certainly on the table... and some day it's true scientific impact may be quantified. But please keep in mind that I am not the one that chooses to use such dark language....by using the words you choose above you are indeed fear mongering. I know you really believe what you post but I really believe it does more harm than good to paint such a dark future without adequate science and proven models to support such miserable predictions.

surely there will be other windows of opportunity for late season action, but bye and large, its been a dud....and I'm totally cool w/ that.

I was thinking this the other day when I realized its been basically cali weather here since August with little rain and beautiful weather. Being a snow weenie, I feel like this drought can mean great things for the winter as the pattern has to flip to wetter soon. Or it could go the other way and patterns die hard and it stays dry through the winter. Either way I'd rather it be dry than it being active and wasting precip during the fall.

https://phys.org/news/2025-10-seas-cities-coastal-crisis-china.html

As far as the NAO, the New Foundland warm pool has formed again, as was already mentioned here. I think this winter is going to be highly dependent on the PAC again (goes without saying I know). The common theme on the seasonal models is the Aleutian ridge….does it go poleward or flat most of the winter? A -PDO is a given at this point, but how negative?

This caricature is the kind of narrative the climate change denial movement is pushing, with some success, due to the very limitations of human nature a number of us have discussed. This rhetorical move of labeling climate science as a “scary religion” and its communication as “fear mongering,” diverts attention away from measurable changes in temperature, sea level, atmospheric composition, and the role of human-induced greenhouse gas pollution in driving those changes. It reframes the issue as a matter of emotion or ideology, not science. By characterizing concern about climate change as exaggerated and predictions as “crying wolf,” it normalizes passivity and delays collective response. The premise of its strategy is to convince the public that the threat of climate change is overblown, if it exists at all. After all, if a threat is overblown or non-existent, then no change is necessary. Put another way, humanity can continue, even expand, its ongoing greenhouse gas-driven geoengineering project. Yet, sea level rise is not imaginary. Sea level rise is real. The notion that a reduction in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will result in no sea level rise whatsoever is fiction. The description of what sea level rise might look like can call attention to what will become a big problem in the future. Further, sea level rise and human futility in holding it back is not without historical precedent. Along the ancient seafront of Delos, generations of builders struggled to hold back the advancing sea. Beginning in the Classical era, they constructed an immense granite breakwater to protect the harbor from waves and erosion. Over the centuries, as the shoreline crept inland, new defenses were added: rockfills, seawalls, and massive boulders aligned along the coast. Each layer of construction, which now lies at depths of 3 to 4 meters below the modern sea, marks an episode of retreat and rebuilding, a record of determination in the face of encroaching waters. Roads and docks that once thrived with merchants and pilgrims were gradually overtaken by the rising tide. Today, the remains of these ancient defenses lie submerged beneath the Aegean Sea, preserved in successive bands of beachrock. Divers can trace their contours like pages in a drowned chronicle that bears the testimony to centuries of futile struggle against a force that could not be contained. The harborworks of Delos, once symbols of resilience and prosperity, now rest silent beneath the waves, their stones bearing witness to the city’s slow surrender to the rise of the sea. Doggerland, which now lies beneath the waters of the North Sea, provides another example of land that was reclaimed by a rising sea. Climate science has done its part. No one can even plausibly argue that "they didn't know," much less claim that the events projected by the science (more frequent heatwaves, more intense precipitation events, melting glaciers/ice sheets, rising sea levels) were matters beyond human control. Those outcomes will be a matter of choice, namely the choice to set aside the laws of physics, to continue to inject vast sums of CO2 into the atmosphere.