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It has been a great week to work outside! 70° today in Micaville. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Did it happen to be somewhat of a squall event type thing? I have images of a snow squall chase on the 21st of November, but that’s down on a mountaintop near Blacksburg, VA.

September? Man, you must’ve taken a time Machine about 3 months into the future! Plenty more days of cool, misty and melting snowflakes lie ahead.

Had a high of 72 with a current temp of 56. This week has been pure bliss weather wise.

I'm not looking forward to the upcoming heat and continued extreme dryness. I may have to run the sprinkler because the lawn is turning brown, which I would never have thought might happen a month ago when everything was wet and lush. The weather has been generally pleasant, but the combination of the US pattern and the dead tropics continues to be incredibly boring.

Leave it to Spartman to declare summer cancel. Dayton expected 85-90 for the next seven days. A couple of those 89-90’s may be too low

Today, Islip recorded its third consecutive high of 74° and Central Park saw its third consecutive high of 73°. The last time both locations had three consecutive days with the same high simultaneously was during July 6-8, 2000 when both locations had three consecutive highs of 79°. Tomorrow will be briefly warmer with highs in the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s. A few locations could see a shower or thundershower tomorrow night into Friday as a cold front pushes through. The next round of showers or rainfall could be Monday. September 1-15 is on track to achieve a solid cool anomaly. Since 2000, there have been nine years that saw a cooler than normal first half of September. Two-thirds of those years went on to record a warmer than normal second half of September. Only two of those years (2017 and 2019) wound up with a monthly mean temperature of 70.0° or above. Overall, for two-thirds of those years, the cool start was sufficiently cool to produce a cooler than normal monthly anomaly. The last year that saw both a cooler than normal first half and second half of September was 2009. Prior to that, it was 2001. The last year to record a cooler than normal first half of September followed by a warmer than normal September was 2024. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was -5.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.415 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.4° (0.8° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

If a Miller A with 30" streaks happens and pier 32 isn't playing in the background then is it even really a big dog?

The only wild card this winter appears to be if we get help from the EPO or PNA. Otherwise it's probably best to temper expectations.

Did he do a good job?

Bone dry out here. High of 74...came back from two nights at the MGM and grasses are tinder dry and brown, especially in western VA and WV. Even saw a decent size fire in the hinterlands of WV as I was coming up the grade on 48. Hope we get some decent rain before/during leaf drop.

Saw my first wooly caterpillar mowing the backyard today.

Yeah 13-14 has some things going for it. 14-15 was a Nino. Neither had the water near Japan as boiling as it is this year however.

High of 77 today but dew points climbed into the low 70's today. Thankfully clouds hung tight

The last 2 Euro Weeklies runs, though not getting back to very active levels like they had for late this month at least as of yet, have suggested 9/22-28 to be the most active week ACEwise of the upcoming weeks with 9/29-10/4 being the 2nd most active.

The next week+ looks like almost an exact repeat of last September's consecutive 80s streak, with maybe just slightly less intensity. Will be interesting to see how many consecutive 80s we have, which after today's date is more and more impressive the later we get into the month. And how much we recover the anomalies for the month. We bottomed out around -9 a couple days ago, so we'll see if we get close to or above average for anomalies after this stretch.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GL115257 There were a couple last year,but i have no clue how it effects planetary waves between the NP and SP,that would be a question for our scientist

There is not a chance of rain for the next 10 days. The river here might legit run dry. If I had a well I’d be very worried.

It was a beauty all day. 74/39 with sun is chamber all day long. River through town getting very low. Only about 10-15 feet wide at many spots.

i do think that 2013-14 is a solid analog for other reasons, though... ENSO strength and orientation is a dead ringer along with similar QBO and solar

Not sure I agree here for a variety of reasons, but this is hopium I’d hit

Party's over here. Have a 6+ 90 degree days coming, starting Friday. Mid 90s Saturday. Just 2.17" of rain in the past 42 days.

1) Both things can be true. Yes, it has gotten hotter in the summer. But you specifically highlighted 90+ days at Denver, which for the reasons I gave have absolutely been influenced to an extent by the location change. It's ok to acknowledge this. 2) Of course. This was not my point, though. 3) Correct. Still in the same general microclimate, though, which is significantly different in some ways from the current DEN. You really can't ignore the difference in siting in relation to distance from the mountains, as I explained.

Yet you have not been banned despite asserting both positions. Hmmmm.