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The issue with using the CFSv2 at this time is that it is clearly having issues maintaining the initialized thermocline slope. That's definitely going to have an effect on its forcing placement and one of the reasons we see it giving ground. Feb will likely end up warmer.

F Florida

Yeah it’s actually doing the thing

It increases volatility. When you combine deconstructive indices together there's no one size fits all analog. I think it would ballsy and delusional to forecast a cold winter. That doesn't mean 1-2 major snow events are off the table either.

Last winter was plenty cold…how quick we forget.

Well, last October and November, and December too…you were in a bad place, and you were as negative as could be(granted…you had a string of misfortune, so we all can understand the feeling). So that’s why he lumped you in. I think Vortex95 would agree.

Further to my post above, here fwiw (maybe not much but it has been rather persistent on the general idea) is the latest 3 day/12 run averaged CFS for Feb: Feb precip:

Another July morning.

Sun is out in Charlottesville!

That is the most likely scenario as warming continues in this region. Notice it's a lot of the over the top warming with tons of onshore flow underneath.

A -PDO isn’t going to trump the strongest El Niño in history. And I have real doubts as to whether the PDO even stays negative this winter. I think it flips positive

First freeze of the season this morning along the Front Range. Most locations bottomed out in the 30-32 range, 27 at my house (typical cold spot). Mountains look pretty and seasonal for a change. What does El Niño have up his sleeve? Some indications of a cold storm in about 10 days, but we all know where that's gotten us the last 15 months.

It's definitely trying - can see significant thinning on visible sat.

The warmth in the E US Dec is likely based on strong ENSO/+QBO analogs and models strongly supporting that warmth. However, once you get further into the winter, the jury is still way out on E US warmth, especially MidAtlantic, Mid-South, S Plains and the SE.

Not exactly going out on a limb here. Every winter is mild and AN now, I’m sure wolfie will have the fangs out and say Feb 15 was very cold, but you get the idea. It’s a couple months BN buried in a sea of warmth. As we’ve seen though, all it takes is one mega winter event and you’re close to normal snow. I think in balance, this winter will suck, but you obviously can’t rule out a rogue storm or two that brings people close to average

0.43" of rain yesterday. Chilly N wind today. 1st half of Oct round up at DLH & TH. DLH TH

-PDO this year as well

0.20" total at my house, same as smokeybandit. 27 F this morning, first sub-40 and first sub-32 of the season too! I'll start a cold season thread.

You have a much better shot than we do east of the river; let’s see how quick you clear and then see If we can clear out.

Do you think we’ll progress the same as 1997 or are you just talking about the warmth being the same for the east coast when winter is over?

0.35" yesterday. Rest of the month looks pretty quiet.

Love when we get a wedge like this, makes for some easy and great photography if you're willing to wake with the sun.

October 16 1996: Early evening storms produce 3/4 to 1 3/4 inch hail in Nicollet, Dakota, Brown, Watonwan, and Martin Counties. In Scott County near St. Patrick, hail fell intermittently for an hour and the area received 3 1/2 inches of rainfall. In Watonwan County, wind gusts up to 63 mph moved several garages off their foundations, destroyed a cattle shed and a corn crib, and uprooted and toppled trees. Southwest of Lake Crystal in Blue Earth County, a garage was blown over onto a vehicle. A 250 gallon fuel tank was also blown over. 1937: A snowstorm dumps 10 inches at Bird Island. 1880: An early blizzard occurs in Minnesota. The blizzard struck western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas especially hard. Over a foot of snow fell in western counties. Railroads were blocked, and damage was done to Great Lakes shipping. For Friday, October 16, 2026 1913 - The temperature in Downtown San Francisco soared to 101 degrees to equal their record for October. (The Weather Channel) 1937 - An unlikely winter-like storm produced as much as ten inches of snow in Minnesota and Iowa. 1987 - Ten cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 34 degrees at Augusta GA marked their third straight morning of record cold. A cold front brought showers and thunderstorms to parts of the central U.S. Lightning struck a bull and six cows under a tree near Battiest OK. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Late afternoon thunderstorms produced severe weather in southwestern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. One thunderstorm spawned a tornado north of Nappanee IN which caused half a million dollars damage. Six cities in California reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 100 degrees at Red Bluff CA was the latest such reading of record for so late in the autumn season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Heavy snow blanketed the foothills of Colorado. Up to three inches was reported around Denver. Echo Lake was buried under nineteen inches of snow. Temperatures again warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the eastern and south central U.S. Thirteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Atlantic City NJ with a reading of 84 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 16 Fri World Food Day 16 Fri National Sports Day 16 Fri Boss's Day 16 Fri Dictionary Day 16 Fri Global Cat Day 16 Fri National Mammography Day 16 Fri Department Store Day 16 Fri World Spine Day 16 Fri National Boss's Day 16 Fri National Department Store Day 16 Fri National Feral Cat Day 16 Fri National Liqueur Day 16 Fri World Allergy Awareness Day

Very distinct this morning.

Hasty generalization fallacy. Avoid it.