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Novemberecho

Moisture robber not an issue. Checks box.

Yeah, and it doesn’t matter if they are a warminista or weenie - everyone cherry picks what model supports their position. And everyone is right! At least for a time…

True, but more and more members falling below the mean and even reversing. Still very far out and can/will change a ton, though.

First mention of dec 2 system from LWX Forecast confidence decreases markedly by Tuesday. On the synoptic scale a shortwave embedded within a much broader longwave trough encompassing much of the CONUS is expected to lift northeastward out of the base of the longwave trough and interact with what should be a sharp baroclinic zone in place along the East Coast. Various sources of both deterministic and ensemble guidance show a large amount of spread with respect to what will ensue with this system. Some solutions show large precipitation totals, while others show little precipitation at all. Some show snow, some show a wintry mix, and others show plain rain. As is typical, temperatures look to be colder the further north and west one goes, so those locations have a greater chance to experience wintry precipitation if it were to occur. It`s too early to get into details at this point, but this system will be one to monitor over the next several days, as it has at least a chance to bring portions of the area their first wintry precipitation event of the year.

The weeklies keep slowly amplifying the Scandi ridging toward the North Pole over the course of December. They pop a western ridge too in week 3. That would be pretty sweet.

Bus gonna be firing up soon.

Weeklies are cold right through early January .

Its below average through the 1st week of January even here also.

Where's the snow Joe?! Lol

lotta spread though

Nice line of storms coming through north central MD now

Nice quick line of of showers/storms moving through…. .

I know there's some people on here that may push the envelope, but I'm not one of those people who ever need to jump out in the crowd and say here I am. I just like messing with people. Now, back to our regular programming

It’s here it’s queer and it’s fabulous. Get used to it.

Weeklies below avg every week here. SE ridge definitely appears to have been overdone.

Mean never gets to normal at all now throughout the forecast period.

Just got around to looking at the 11-15 day. That is a nice look. Even though the southeast Ridge tries bubbling up I like that orientation to at least have a good baroclinic zone. I definitely would take my chances.

Mainly I'm annoyed that because of the way the trough has evolved vs. the GFS and Euro from 3 days ago, there's no outbreak threat anywhere, not even the Lower MS Valley/Dixie, to armchair chase while getting snowed in. Some of the runs were showing upper-50s dews with solid vertical depth getting pulled as far north as northern KS on Sunday or Monday, in the presence of classic meathook hodographs.

Thank you!

No.. he put a poop symbol on your post... I'm just busting chops though. Was that a dig on your part though... I've been called worse sucka.

@dryslot @AstronomyEnjoyer @CoastalWx check personal messages for form links. I think I'm up to date with everyone's requests.

heading straight to Ptown