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Dammit we have frost. All my plants are outside, was not ready for this

Back up to 34°…there’s maybe a 20 min window in there where they may have snuck one in. 42.4° may do it here

Thankfully no 40’s here. Breezy mild mid 50’s

39 in the good radiating spots in BTown / Ludlow

I don’t think I have ever worn pants in August but it feels glorious outside this morning!

If we're going to dip into la nina in 2025-26, then 1949-50 is probably the best analog you're going to do here. I know that was 75+ years ago, but there aren't many years that go from ENSO neutral to a la nina. Plus, you had a strong -PDO and elevated solar (although it was declining by that point). 2020-21 would be the next best match, but that was coming off a borderline weak el nino, and we were still near a solar min. And while we had a -PDO, it wasn't as strong as 1949-50 and now.

low of 52

53/51

They might sneak a 32F in there. Pretty crazy how it just keeps radiating. We fogged out at 45F and just keep sitting 41-45F in the valley. 42F min at nearby PWS. It’s in the 50s like 500ft overhead lol.

At this rate, the way it's trending, it will snow in October.

34F here. Fall is coming...

45F on the home Davis, great morning for a walk.

Ocean heat content in the 0-2000m layer has jumped up this year, recovering from a nino-related dip. A sign that warming at a fast clip continues.

6hr min at HIE will be interesting…

Beautiful AM. 47F

47 currently

42.7° Coldest since June

I agree. The Niña is tipping its hand much earlier this year than last, there’s a -IOD event now and the NW Pacific is even warmer. There’s also a very pronounced -PMM and we have a deep -AAM, whereas last year was very +AAM/Nino like. Last year by this time we had a parade of recurving tropical and extratropical storms training over the inferno SSTS off Japan cooling/upwelling them, not happening this time around. In fact the -PDO is even stronger now with SSTS of 11 degrees F above normal in that area….that’s staggering. And obvious big changes in the Atlantic with the big persistent cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight

September DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.5 0.5

Fall is in the air here this morning, currently 43F here in the Berkshires. It's 55F back in HPN.

High of 78.6 yesterday. Currently 59

Down to a fantastic 45F here in E CT, great fall feel heading to Labor Day and Fair season!

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa by this weekend to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, moving across the eastern into central Tropical Atlantic through the middle of next week.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Also wanted to post the latest for July and August via TAO on the subsurface look between 2N and 2S.

I know several consider last winter to be a top analog, but there really has been a lot of change in the SSTA pattern in just about every basin. The observed pattern also feels very different. We had a high of just 70 F today in Tulsa for the 5th coldest on record, which is on top of a cool and extremely wet summer...very different from last year at least at this juncture.