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Waiting on LWX to hoist the watches. Not sure what they're waiting on at this point. Model guidance is near perfect!

I’ve seen some shit in Florida that we’ll never see here, but that is fucking amazing!!!

There was an SCN that went out about it last year and there was no indication in there that there was going to be a replacement or complementary service. The SCN went put at about the same time as other things which were curtailing the access / dissemination of climate information.

That's awesome. Definitely something worth posting from UMD Science on the socials.

You were in Bermuda but I posted if it were I would have murdered @Mount Joy Snowman in his sleep.

Yup. This is a Nino. No beach blizzards allowed.

Above normal temperatures will persist through Friday. Highs will generally top out in the middle and upper 80s. Cooler air will move into the region to close of the week. As a result, the weekend ad early next week will likely see highs mainly in the lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was +1.76 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.776 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.5° (0.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Let cape mix for once, bring that death band a bit west

These are different storm cells from yesterday (Aug 11th) as seen from Bismarck ND and also Rapid City SD. You don't see the radar estimated 4" hail a lot

Today's Highs: PHL: 90 BLM: 89 EWR: 88 New Brnswck: 88 LGA: 87 TEB: 86 ACY: 86 ISP: 85 JFK: 85 TTN: 85 NYC: 84

Some folks like to tell me that while the raw high temperatures may not have warmed significantly a true tell tale sign of our warming climate is the warming of overnight low temperatures...So I went back and did a statistical analysis to see if between 1890 and 2025 we saw statistically warming of overnight lows and daytime highs along with the overall average temperatures. The big finding which may surprise is to find that in fact there has been no significant warming at all of overnight lows and actually slight cooling!!! We used both a pure raw all station mean which is just the raw untouched data and an anomaly composite which while still raw data, treats each individual station referenced to its own baseline so the changing station roster and locations can't fabricate some false trend. Raw all-station mean (the literal, unadjusted county average): none of the three are statistically significant. Average high: +0.055 °F/decade, p = 0.073 — warming, but just short of significance (borderline). Average low: +0.022 °F/decade, p = 0.49 — not significant. Overall average: +0.039 °F/decade, p = 0.15 — not significant. So by the pure raw mean, there's no statistically significant warming or cooling in any of the three over 1890–2025 — a slight (non-significant) warming lean in all three. Anomaly composite (still raw data, but each station referenced to its own baseline so the changing station roster can't fabricate a trend): two of the three are significant, and they point in opposite directions. Average high: +0.094 °F/decade, p = 0.003 — significant warming. Average low: −0.075 °F/decade, p = 0.008 — significant cooling. Overall average: +0.010 °F/decade, p = 0.72 — not significant (the high and low cancel out). The one thing both methods agree on firmly: the overall average temperature shows no statistically significant trend either way across the 135 years across Chester County from 1890-2025. Below are some charts that highlight all of the above.

This one was a supercell out east of Pine Bluffs, WY (in Nebraska) with brief tornado reported

89’d today. Dew point of 57 has it feeling not bad outside. Send rain please.

Now that's freaking cool.

Just uninstalled. No hot nights on the horizon. In for the first 10 days of July and out. Reinstall at the beginning of August and out today. Seems to be a pattern.

90/76 split here in Philadelphia today. Dewpoints fell to the upper 50’s for a bit. Thirty-fifth 90 thus far this summer.

No hand waving Mike....just no clear documented reasons as only four of 51 (8%) trace to a documented real physical cause — three moves and only one TOB change. There are 2 zero break stations that are our controls - Coatesville 2W and Hopewell demonstrate that the PHA is indeed selective as it left these 2 stations untouched: NCEI applied no adjustment to either - which proves the 14 breakpoints at Coatesville 1SW were a deliberate finding rather than a default. The Coatesville 1SW dates, all code 4: 1896-12, 1902-02, 1917-08, 1920-09, 1922-08, 1930-10, 1936-05, 1941-06, 1946-04, 1959-11, 1968-05, 1971-04, 1973-07, 1976-02. Fourteen inferred discontinuities against six documented HOMR relocations, coinciding with none of them. The linear ramp clearly fits far better than any step. And when you allow both, the step collapses to −0.050 °C while the slope survives essentially intact at +0.182 °C/dec. A one-time convention change explains basically none of it. And more importantly the actual magnitude is out of range. The Coatesville adjustment swings +1.51 °C from first decade to last (West Chester, from NCEI's own file, swings +2.38 °C). Published TOB corrections for a full afternoon-to-morning switch run roughly 0.2–0.5 °C in annual mean. So TOB, even granting it entirely (which is not valid), accounts for perhaps a third of the Coatesville adjustment and a fifth of West Chester's. To summarize how it all fits together Mike: Raw agreement across stations. Coatesville 1SW −0.366, West Chester 2NW −0.409, Phoenixville 1E −0.339 over 1941–75, all p ≤ 0.0012, inside each other's error bars. Both systems erase it. Berkeley and NCEI each render all three non-significant, with adjustment trends correlating at r = 0.9986. The correction is a "smooth ramp" which you question above but certainly not a step — which no single documented event can explain. Its size exceeds TOB by 3–5×. The breakpoints lack documentation. Fourteen at Coatesville, all code 4, against six documented relocations in HOMR. At West Chester, April 1921 and November/December 1927 are documented observer-and-site changes classified as empirically detected, and the March 1936 relocation produced no breakpoint at all. Phoenixville is the cleanest case — no detected convention change anywhere in its record, and it still cools at −0.339 (p=0.0012) - why is that? So many questions and still so few answers!! The unanswered questions that follows from this is narrow and should be answerable: exactly what documentation supports the fourteen breakpoints at USC00361589 - Coatesville 1SW and what portion of the adjustment at Coatesville is attributed to time-of-observation versus other causes? That last question is the one they can't deflect — because the shape of their own adjustment says it isn't mostly TOB!

A Roundy post in honor of Snowman...sorta. https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/2087329199317012723?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

Just had another heavy shower, only had one clap of thunder but it was a loud one. Looks like more upstream.

Hopefully this manifests something. Made sure not to mix @CAPE

What smooth ramp do you refer to? I just glanced at the breakpoints at BEST for the stations in the table and none of them look like "smooth ramps". Coatesville's breakpoint are fully documented at this point. I have shown you that there is hard documented real world events driving the breakpoints for this station. If you think there is something off about the breakpoints for the other stations, and that the published work of scientists around the world is flawed, then it is on you to do the deep dive on the histories through all available sources and make your case. Don't just wave your hands saying "absolutely no metadata backing, that's an algorithm asserting station changes that are clearly not able to be documented"--without first scouring all source for that documentation. For West Chester, I just took a quick look at the breakpoints at BEST, the 530-1, and HOMR records. About half the breaks are clear just from the 530-1 and HOMR. There are breakpoints at ~1978, ~1982 and ~1988 that don't have explanations yet and may be in the paper forms, or other records. Its the Daily Local--there are going to be a lot of records about where they were located. Have AI write a tool to download all the paper forms from batch "AA92589" or just do it manually around those dates. Anyway, it is on you to prove there is no documentation for these moves, you cant just say there aren't any without looking at the available documentation first.

Fairly pleasant outside this evening. “Only” made it to 89.6 and heat index never got above 92 with tolerable DPs in the 60s. Tomorrow is back to the oven

You will often here folks say well while our average daytime highs may not be warming significantly....we are certain that the nightime lows are warmingg....Well I went back and did a statistical analysis to see if between 1890 and 2025 we saw statistically warming of overnight lows and daytime highs along with the overall average temperatures. We used both a pure raw all station mean which is just the raw untouched data and an anomaly composite which while still raw data, treats each individual station referenced to its own baseline so the changing station roster and locations can't fabricate some false trend. Raw all-station mean (the literal, unadjusted county average): none of the three are statistically significant. Average high: +0.055 °F/decade, p = 0.073 — warming, but just short of significance (borderline). Average low: +0.022 °F/decade, p = 0.49 — not significant. Overall average: +0.039 °F/decade, p = 0.15 — not significant. So by the pure raw mean, there's no statistically significant warming or cooling in any of the three over 1890–2025 — a slight (non-significant) warming lean in all three. Anomaly composite (still raw data, but each station referenced to its own baseline so the changing station roster can't fabricate a trend): two of the three are significant, and they point in opposite directions. Average high: +0.094 °F/decade, p = 0.003 — significant warming. Average low: −0.075 °F/decade, p = 0.008 — significant cooling. Overall average: +0.010 °F/decade, p = 0.72 — not significant (the high and low cancel out). The one thing both methods agree on firmly: the overall average temperature shows no statistically significant trend either way across the 135 years across Chester County from 1890-2025. Below are some charts that highlight all of the above.